Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Monday 15 February 2016 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 14 February 2016, Arsenal 2 1 Leicester; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Leicester        26   53  +19      14.63    97.55    15.13    72.14     4.72    23.08    23.10    48.25    72.33    92.48    99.37     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        26   51  +27       5.50    76.85    11.87    71.83     4.64    33.60    25.60    50.20    74.09    93.30    99.50     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          26   51  +18       2.89    64.46    -0.86    73.26     4.46    26.94    34.06    59.83    80.38    95.92    99.74     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         26   47  +20      -4.73    24.98    -5.97    70.61     4.49    31.52    16.80    39.28    64.66    90.05    98.97     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          26   41   +9      -3.22    33.00    -3.70    61.65     4.61    15.21     0.35     1.74     5.49    15.51    69.06     0.00     0.00  
Southampton      26   40  +10      -1.16    43.85     1.86    59.09     4.65    13.89     0.06     0.47     1.84     6.59    47.62     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham         26   40   +9       3.08    66.24     7.24    56.37     4.65     8.92     0.02     0.10     0.50     2.25    23.93     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        26   38   +2      -2.04    39.33    -4.50    56.57     4.78     5.15     0.00     0.08     0.47     2.22    24.62     0.00     0.00  
Watford          26   36   +1       4.36    72.56     7.10    51.68     4.64    -0.20     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.11     4.73     0.03R    0.00  
Stoke            26   36   -5       3.35    68.06    -1.02    51.66     4.50    -6.17     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.11     4.06     0.03R    0.00  
Everton          26   35  +11      -5.64    22.61     3.64    54.07     4.73    15.04     0.00     0.02     0.14     0.81    14.81     0.01R    0.00  
Chelsea          26   33   +2     -12.69     4.10   -13.38    54.08     4.71     8.85     0.00     0.02     0.10     0.64    13.12     0.03R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   26   32   -5       1.38    58.59     2.30    45.88     4.51    -8.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.28     1.26R    0.00  
West_Brom        26   32   -8       1.81    61.21    -0.41    45.33     4.43   -12.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.16     1.75R    0.01  
Bournemouth      26   28  -14       0.61    54.53     0.12    39.77     4.44   -21.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    19.82R    0.47  
Swansea          26   27  -10      -4.84    25.38    -4.51    40.97     4.51   -13.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.13R    0.27  
Norwich          26   24  -20      -2.10    39.80    -3.58    35.58     4.39   -28.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    57.00R    3.57  
Newcastle        26   24  -22      -0.53    48.44    -3.37    36.51     4.44   -28.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    49.06R    3.45  
Sunderland       26   23  -18      -2.71    35.71    -1.51    35.04     4.42   -24.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    59.94R    4.21  
Aston_Villa      26   16  -26      -7.08    14.27    -6.46    25.49     4.01   -37.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.95R   88.02  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 15 February 2016, Leeds_United 0 0 Middlesbrough; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Hull            30   59  +28       3.64    67.36     7.58    89.21     5.30    40.03    58.56    83.78    99.87    89.65P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough   30   58  +23       5.66    76.31     6.92    85.76     5.37    31.22    25.72    59.69    99.27    73.07P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley         31   56  +22       2.58    62.06     5.86    82.86     5.29    31.07    11.42    37.35    97.50    57.69P    0.00     0.00  
Brighton        30   56  +10      11.80    93.03     4.98    78.10     5.39    10.79     2.51     9.93    83.89    23.79P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed       31   53  +16       7.07    80.42    10.59    75.33     5.23    18.81     0.76     3.76    72.39    17.31P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           31   51  +13      -0.28    48.44    -0.30    76.10     5.31    19.75     0.97     4.86    76.90    24.94P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham      31   48   +8       5.12    73.69     6.97    68.25     5.22     7.93     0.01     0.20    18.62     3.40P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich         31   48   +1       3.41    66.17    -2.33    70.07     5.24     3.43     0.05     0.32    28.21     5.65P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff         31   46   +5       2.22    61.10     2.54    66.60     5.24     5.26     0.01     0.09    12.50     2.45P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   31   42   +4      -1.74    42.12     1.49    62.32     5.22     3.83     0.00     0.01     3.00     0.59P    0.01R    0.00  
Preston         31   42   +0       1.61    58.60     1.95    61.91     5.20    -0.30     0.00     0.00     2.24     0.35P    0.01R    0.00  
Wolverhampton   31   40   -2      -4.73    28.76    -5.59    60.46     5.28    -2.01     0.00     0.00     1.41     0.26P    0.08R    0.00  
Brentford       31   40   -6      -1.47    43.49    -4.41    61.72     5.36    -4.35     0.00     0.00     2.04     0.37P    0.06R    0.00  
QPR             31   39   -1      -5.66    25.33    -4.43    60.45     5.31     0.54     0.00     0.00     1.55     0.36P    0.09R    0.00  
Reading         31   37   +0      -3.36    34.30     2.44    56.81     5.21    -0.64     0.00     0.00     0.24     0.05P    0.53R    0.01  
Leeds_United    31   37   -5      -0.78    46.64     0.81    55.75     5.13    -7.17     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.01P    0.87R    0.02  
Huddersfield    31   35   -2      -4.04    31.44     3.33    53.18     5.28    -5.56     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P    2.77R    0.10  
Fulham          30   32   -3      -6.53    21.39     1.78    53.24     5.54    -4.14     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.02P    3.50R    0.16  
Blackburn       29   31   -2      -8.63    13.42    -2.65    54.50     5.60    -1.40     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.03P    2.15R    0.08  
MK_Dons         31   31  -17      -3.60    33.48    -5.95    48.83     5.23   -20.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    15.54R    1.36  
Bristol_City    31   31  -21      -2.67    37.84    -8.07    47.16     5.11   -27.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    25.70R    2.80  
Rotherham       31   26  -19      -5.53    24.27    -1.98    39.98     4.89   -29.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    79.75R   25.73  
Charlton        31   25  -30      -5.77    22.67   -12.70    38.98     4.85   -39.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    87.13R   39.33  
Bolton          31   24  -22      -9.65    10.87    -8.84    39.55     5.02   -29.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    81.83R   30.40  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 13 February 2016, Blackpool 2 3 Shrewsbury; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Burton_Albion    30   63  +17      17.63    98.37    10.60    87.08     5.60    20.31    46.30    69.52    98.77    75.45P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham       31   58  +20       9.03    85.69    10.10    81.98     5.47    25.17    15.09    35.74    93.02    48.54P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall          30   57  +17       9.86    88.54     8.12    82.05     5.61    21.75    15.66    35.41    92.51    48.84P    0.00     0.00  
Wigan            31   56  +21      -0.49    47.11     0.35    82.74     5.34    30.15    18.90    43.42    94.93    62.03P    0.00     0.00  
Coventry         31   52  +22       1.98    59.12    10.69    75.35     5.41    26.25     1.64     6.46    64.20    20.92P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         30   50  +10       2.80    62.95     0.80    75.37     5.71    15.08     1.94     6.77    60.19    20.44P    0.00     0.00  
Southend         30   47   +5       6.66    78.97     5.94    68.28     5.54     4.22     0.05     0.37    14.47     3.02P    0.02R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd        30   45   +5      -1.43    43.26    -3.00    70.05     5.61     9.59     0.17     0.84    24.28     6.78P    0.01R    0.00  
Port_Vale        32   45   -1       3.42    66.20     2.12    63.80     5.11    -1.49     0.00     0.01     2.62     0.46P    0.15R    0.00  
Peterborough     30   44   +9      -2.07    40.43     1.46    69.79     5.66    14.83     0.13     0.77    24.26     6.62P    0.02R    0.00  
Bradford         29   44   +1       4.24    70.50     0.73    68.36     5.76     2.83     0.09     0.47    15.36     3.42P    0.06R    0.00  
Barnsley         30   42   +5      -2.54    38.45     0.07    66.30     5.64     8.65     0.02     0.18     9.55     2.25P    0.12R    0.00  
Scunthorpe       29   41   -3       3.79    68.59     0.94    62.60     5.73    -5.70     0.00     0.03     2.66     0.50P    0.95R    0.00  
Swindon          31   39   -2      -7.53    18.81    -8.00    61.28     5.44     0.47     0.00     0.00     1.27     0.33P    1.23R    0.00  
Rochdale         29   37   -3      -1.91    41.13    -1.53    60.88     5.82    -2.29     0.00     0.01     1.51     0.32P    2.06R    0.01  
Bury             29   37  -13       5.01    74.06    -0.54    55.77     5.73   -20.26     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.02P   12.04R    0.15  
Doncaster        30   36   -5      -4.18    30.58    -3.73    57.15     5.56    -6.15     0.00     0.00     0.22     0.05P    6.40R    0.02  
Blackpool        30   33   -8      -4.80    28.48    -3.47    53.71     5.57    -9.64     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   18.35R    0.36  
Shrewsbury       31   33  -14      -4.28    30.91    -6.11    50.19     5.29   -19.19     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    41.19R    1.10  
Fleetwood_Town   29   30   -3      -7.16    18.22     0.54    50.83     5.69    -6.52     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   33.18R    0.98  
Chesterfield     30   30  -12      -8.91    13.88    -8.38    52.15     5.62   -11.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   26.48R    0.80  
Crewe            30   27  -20      -2.60    37.84    -1.74    43.21     5.26   -29.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.98R   15.65  
Oldham           28   25  -13      -7.56    16.11    -4.54    45.24     5.81   -19.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    73.37R    8.40  
Colchester       30   22  -35      -6.08    21.95   -11.43    36.80     5.26   -47.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.37R   72.53  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 13 February 2016, AFC_Wimbledon 4 1 Luton; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Northampton          29   64  +24      16.04    97.64    11.51    92.26     5.90    31.43    68.50    96.53    99.95    97.40P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth             30   59  +20       9.13    86.72     7.34    85.87     5.57    27.13    17.97    80.42    99.37    85.75P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           29   55  +21       7.82    83.23    10.10    83.11     5.80    28.06    10.42    65.34    97.44    74.13P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              30   49   +7       2.75    62.93    -0.61    73.14     5.59    10.26     0.20     6.84    59.09    20.24P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           29   48  +22       0.83    54.09    10.97    76.27     5.83    29.30     1.25    20.29    80.84    38.76P    0.00     0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   27   48  +15       8.68    86.11    11.84    75.97     6.38    17.80     1.44    19.46    75.56    30.90P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield            32   48   +6       6.72    78.48     9.59    66.31     5.14     4.80     0.00     0.35    15.36     3.08P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       30   47   +8       4.93    72.17     6.26    71.07     5.67    11.16     0.06     3.16    46.02    12.85P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient        31   46   +1      -4.78    29.36   -11.46    71.26     5.50     8.09     0.05     3.32    46.27    16.88P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon        29   45  +10       3.45    66.41     7.51    69.01     5.88    10.97     0.06     2.23    33.38     8.96P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        31   44   +1       3.22    65.32     3.95    62.84     5.39    -1.73     0.00     0.10     5.65     1.11P    0.00R    0.00  
Carlisle             27   42   +4       4.69    72.19     4.09    67.48     6.40     2.64     0.03     1.68    24.91     6.10P    0.00R    0.00  
Exeter               29   40   -2       1.09    55.89    -0.34    62.77     5.89    -2.97     0.00     0.13     6.35     1.37P    0.02R    0.00  
Luton                31   38   -2      -5.03    28.08    -2.79    59.46     5.42    -0.73     0.00     0.01     1.54     0.39P    0.06R    0.00  
Crawley_Town         31   37  -16      -2.81    37.88   -11.69    56.67     5.46   -17.51     0.00     0.00     0.35     0.08P    0.43R    0.05  
Morecambe            31   36   -5      -4.37    30.82    -0.97    56.44     5.51    -5.52     0.00     0.00     0.49     0.08P    0.36R    0.03  
Barnet               29   36   -6       1.23    56.80     1.92    56.21     5.80   -10.75     0.00     0.00     0.60     0.12P    0.64R    0.07  
Notts_County         28   36   -7      -4.38    30.23    -9.76    62.44     6.20    -4.48     0.00     0.15     6.76     1.78P    0.08R    0.01  
Stevenage            32   34  -12      -8.89    15.31   -10.15    51.57     5.21   -14.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P    2.49R    0.35  
Newport_County       29   30  -10      -4.98    27.12    -2.78    50.33     5.72   -14.45     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P    5.25R    0.98  
Hartlepool           27   27  -18      -0.57    48.12    -3.73    45.73     5.84   -29.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.59R    7.87  
Yeovil               30   24  -15     -13.57     4.57    -9.86    43.45     5.62   -18.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    33.07R   11.43  
York                 29   23  -22      -9.06    12.08   -10.40    41.22     5.56   -29.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    54.41R   24.01  
Dag_&_Red            30   20  -24     -12.64     5.19   -10.54    37.28     5.40   -31.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.60R   55.20  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 13 February 2016, Aldershot 0 0 Tranmere; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Cheltenham       32   72  +41       6.50    78.79     7.61    99.55     4.89    53.73    81.73   100.00    88.74P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     33   71  +26      12.13    92.47     5.30    93.20     4.95    32.74    15.74    99.92    38.00P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          31   59  +37      -2.94    34.63     7.63    86.09     5.21    46.71     2.51    97.28    38.75P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         33   54  +11      -3.25    34.88    -6.77    75.53     4.95    16.38     0.00    47.31    10.92P    0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic   31   52  +13       4.57    70.42     5.79    75.36     5.41    17.18     0.00    46.52     6.84P    0.00     0.00  
Braintree_Town   29   50  +12       6.65    80.05     6.59    75.64     5.71    15.56     0.02    47.41     7.68P    0.00     0.00  
Eastleigh        30   50   +7       3.67    66.82    -0.60    74.67     5.58    11.22     0.00    39.58     5.75P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham          33   49  +12      -2.57    38.42     2.60    67.83     4.86    13.44     0.00     6.29     1.07P    0.00     0.00  
Woking           33   49  +12      -4.12    31.64     0.04    66.83     4.95    11.71     0.00     4.65     0.77P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City     34   49   +6       1.77    58.29     5.43    65.35     4.67     5.56     0.00     1.97     0.23P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead        31   48   -7       6.13    76.87    -5.65    66.95     5.30    -9.59     0.00     4.58     0.51P    0.00     0.00  
Macclesfield     33   47   +7      -2.33    39.42     0.99    66.83     4.95    10.02     0.00     4.14     0.71P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot        32   42   -7       1.29    56.96    -2.28    60.82     5.08    -7.52     0.00     0.18     0.01P    0.07R    0.00  
Southport        32   39  -10       3.93    69.37     3.04    56.10     4.98   -13.11     0.00     0.01     0.00     1.33R    0.04  
Bromley          31   38   -5       1.07    55.74     5.51    58.31     5.59    -5.84     0.00     0.15     0.02P    0.69R    0.03  
Barrow           32   38  -17       4.87    72.36     1.63    54.14     5.14   -22.03     0.00     0.01     0.00P    3.72R    0.20  
Guiseley         31   37  -16       4.78    72.87    -0.23    51.60     5.03   -24.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.34R    0.56  
Chester          31   35  -11       0.02    51.05     1.11    53.25     5.23   -14.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.02R    0.43  
Altrincham       31   33  -20       2.31    62.67    -1.18    50.96     5.26   -24.07     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.96R    1.45  
Halifax          31   30  -21      -7.72    17.84   -12.37    47.06     5.21   -27.37     0.00     0.00     0.00    32.89R    6.25  
Boreham_Wood     31   29   -8      -5.42    25.67     2.60    46.85     5.21   -11.39     0.00     0.00     0.00    30.13R    5.15  
Welling          31   26  -18      -6.70    19.80    -3.56    41.73     5.07   -25.12     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.48R   29.36  
Kidderminster    31   23  -17     -13.59     4.04    -7.99    41.24     5.21   -20.57     0.00     0.00     0.00    72.32R   31.36  
Torquay          29   20  -27     -12.79     4.56   -15.23    42.85     5.81   -27.94     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.05R   25.17