Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Sunday 14 February 2016 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 14 February 2016, Arsenal 2 1 Leicester; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Leicester        26   53  +19      14.63    97.43    15.13    72.14     4.73    23.09    22.80    48.05    72.41    92.57    99.38     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        26   51  +27       5.54    77.01    11.97    71.82     4.68    33.59    25.58    50.20    73.63    93.29    99.48     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          26   51  +18       2.87    64.22    -0.91    73.32     4.48    27.01    34.31    60.10    80.90    95.99    99.77     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         26   47  +20      -4.60    25.64    -5.75    70.59     4.51    31.48    16.93    39.43    64.66    90.06    99.01     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          26   41   +9      -3.16    33.42    -3.58    61.60     4.62    15.13     0.29     1.59     5.34    15.54    68.98     0.00     0.00  
Southampton      26   40  +10      -1.22    43.42     1.81    59.09     4.66    13.88     0.07     0.45     1.91     6.60    47.73     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham         26   40   +9       3.12    66.58     7.27    56.30     4.64     8.82     0.01     0.08     0.47     2.14    23.76     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        26   38   +2      -1.92    39.74    -4.32    56.48     4.78     5.01     0.01     0.08     0.43     2.01    24.28     0.00     0.00  
Watford          26   36   +1       4.46    72.90     7.23    51.61     4.63    -0.30     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.16     4.60     0.02R    0.00  
Stoke            26   36   -5       3.14    67.09    -1.29    51.76     4.52    -6.02     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.13     4.10     0.02R    0.00  
Everton          26   35  +11      -5.66    22.45     3.59    54.13     4.73    15.09     0.00     0.01     0.13     0.89    15.26     0.01R    0.00  
Chelsea          26   33   +2     -12.67     4.15   -13.40    54.04     4.72     8.88     0.00     0.01     0.08     0.62    13.26     0.01R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   26   32   -5       1.21    57.73     2.04    45.95     4.51    -8.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.24     1.25R    0.00  
West_Brom        26   32   -8       1.79    60.69    -0.41    45.37     4.42   -12.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.14     1.71R    0.00  
Bournemouth      26   28  -14       0.51    53.91    -0.00    39.82     4.46   -21.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.72R    0.49  
Swansea          26   27  -10      -4.91    25.39    -4.57    41.01     4.50   -13.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.91R    0.23  
Norwich          26   24  -20      -1.93    40.66    -3.35    35.55     4.38   -28.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    57.58R    3.63  
Newcastle        26   24  -22      -0.59    47.92    -3.48    36.55     4.46   -28.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    48.80R    3.32  
Sunderland       26   23  -18      -2.73    35.51    -1.49    35.02     4.44   -24.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    59.96R    4.13  
Aston_Villa      26   16  -26      -7.05    14.39    -6.50    25.47     4.00   -37.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.01R   88.19  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 13 February 2016, Blackburn 0 2 Hull; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Hull            30   59  +28       3.69    67.56     7.66    89.20     5.30    40.01    56.12    82.87    99.85    89.13P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough   29   57  +23       6.10    78.76     6.94    86.52     5.55    31.77    29.09    63.62    99.28    75.56P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley         31   56  +22       2.30    60.48     5.45    82.94     5.25    31.22    11.12    35.81    97.64    56.77P    0.00     0.00  
Brighton        30   56  +10      11.82    92.95     5.05    78.10     5.33    10.77     2.19     9.05    83.91    23.04P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed       31   53  +16       7.15    80.63    10.68    75.35     5.22    18.81     0.61     3.42    72.31    17.29P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           31   51  +13      -0.18    49.04    -0.15    76.08     5.30    19.69     0.80     4.52    76.65    24.56P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham      31   48   +8       5.23    74.28     7.12    68.25     5.22     7.93     0.02     0.17    18.44     3.30P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich         31   48   +1       3.32    65.51    -2.47    70.10     5.31     3.50     0.04     0.43    28.36     5.83P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff         31   46   +5       2.17    60.65     2.48    66.61     5.26     5.27     0.00     0.09    12.72     2.41P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   31   42   +4      -1.94    40.99     1.19    62.37     5.22     3.92     0.00     0.00     3.02     0.64P    0.01R    0.00  
Preston         31   42   +0       1.50    57.88     1.79    61.97     5.17    -0.24     0.00     0.01     2.33     0.40P    0.01R    0.00  
Wolverhampton   31   40   -2      -4.88    28.05    -5.77    60.51     5.24    -1.94     0.00     0.00     1.32     0.23P    0.07R    0.00  
Brentford       31   40   -6      -1.50    43.20    -4.46    61.71     5.34    -4.33     0.00     0.00     2.07     0.37P    0.05R    0.00  
QPR             31   39   -1      -5.64    25.64    -4.46    60.44     5.33     0.55     0.00     0.00     1.51     0.36P    0.07R    0.00  
Reading         31   37   +0      -3.32    34.53     2.57    56.77     5.21    -0.70     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.04P    0.47R    0.00  
Leeds_United    30   36   -5      -0.74    47.04     0.54    55.74     5.29    -7.65     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.03P    1.00R    0.03  
Huddersfield    31   35   -2      -3.76    32.87     3.74    53.06     5.26    -5.72     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P    2.88R    0.08  
Fulham          30   32   -3      -6.33    22.29     2.05    53.20     5.56    -4.24     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.02P    3.56R    0.18  
Blackburn       29   31   -2      -8.56    13.74    -2.52    54.45     5.63    -1.47     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.02P    2.16R    0.11  
MK_Dons         31   31  -17      -3.51    33.91    -5.78    48.81     5.18   -20.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    15.67R    1.41  
Bristol_City    31   31  -21      -2.76    37.40    -8.15    47.18     5.13   -27.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    25.51R    2.78  
Rotherham       31   26  -19      -5.64    23.71    -2.19    40.05     4.88   -29.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    79.61R   25.04  
Charlton        31   25  -30      -5.60    23.44   -12.44    38.91     4.84   -39.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    87.44R   40.11  
Bolton          31   24  -22      -9.67    10.69    -8.88    39.57     5.01   -29.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    81.48R   30.26  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 13 February 2016, Blackpool 2 3 Shrewsbury; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Burton_Albion    30   63  +17      17.75    98.34    10.80    86.96     5.63    20.11    45.79    69.05    98.70    75.03P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham       31   58  +20       9.06    85.49    10.13    81.98     5.46    25.17    15.45    36.05    93.09    48.63P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall          30   57  +17       9.97    88.72     8.29    81.94     5.57    21.59    15.19    35.11    92.33    48.46P    0.00     0.00  
Wigan            31   56  +21      -0.57    46.86     0.16    82.73     5.36    30.14    19.44    43.73    94.85    62.55P    0.00     0.00  
Coventry         31   52  +22       1.84    58.55    10.51    75.36     5.43    26.24     1.75     6.72    63.93    21.14P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         30   50  +10       2.86    63.06     0.91    75.29     5.72    14.99     1.90     6.61    60.06    19.81P    0.00R    0.00  
Southend         30   47   +5       6.75    79.54     6.07    68.24     5.55     4.18     0.09     0.39    14.40     3.11P    0.03R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd        30   45   +5      -1.35    43.46    -2.85    70.05     5.65     9.56     0.17     0.93    24.47     6.87P    0.01R    0.00  
Port_Vale        32   45   -1       3.41    65.93     2.14    63.85     5.11    -1.46     0.00     0.00     2.58     0.44P    0.19R    0.00  
Peterborough     30   44   +9      -2.05    40.38     1.51    69.76     5.68    14.80     0.12     0.78    24.25     6.56P    0.02R    0.00  
Bradford         29   44   +1       4.43    71.53     0.95    68.32     5.74     2.77     0.07     0.43    15.37     3.55P    0.03R    0.00  
Barnsley         30   42   +5      -2.82    36.99    -0.33    66.39     5.63     8.77     0.02     0.16     9.95     2.54P    0.08R    0.00  
Scunthorpe       29   41   -3       3.81    68.61     0.94    62.64     5.76    -5.64     0.01     0.03     2.75     0.53P    0.89R    0.00  
Swindon          31   39   -2      -7.66    18.30    -8.24    61.38     5.43     0.62     0.00     0.00     1.35     0.37P    1.15R    0.00  
Rochdale         29   37   -3      -1.88    41.20    -1.45    60.87     5.84    -2.35     0.00     0.00     1.48     0.33P    2.05R    0.01  
Bury             29   37  -13       5.08    74.24    -0.42    55.75     5.66   -20.33     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.02P   12.02R    0.12  
Doncaster        30   36   -5      -4.17    30.54    -3.72    57.19     5.61    -6.07     0.00     0.00     0.24     0.06P    6.44R    0.03  
Blackpool        30   33   -8      -4.62    29.21    -3.24    53.63     5.54    -9.76     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   18.70R    0.36  
Shrewsbury       31   33  -14      -4.39    30.53    -6.23    50.24     5.31   -19.17     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   41.01R    1.10  
Fleetwood_Town   29   30   -3      -7.28    17.84     0.29    50.97     5.68    -6.27     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    32.53R    0.99  
Chesterfield     30   30  -12      -8.96    14.01    -8.43    52.18     5.69   -11.80     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   26.77R    0.82  
Crewe            30   27  -20      -2.70    37.48    -1.90    43.24     5.27   -29.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.03R   15.61  
Oldham           28   25  -13      -7.55    16.06    -4.47    45.21     5.78   -19.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    73.64R    8.46  
Colchester       30   22  -35      -6.09    21.80   -11.43    36.85     5.25   -47.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.40R   72.49  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 13 February 2016, AFC_Wimbledon 4 1 Luton; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Northampton          29   64  +24      15.81    97.47    11.18    92.34     5.93    31.59    68.96    96.65    99.95    97.46P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth             30   59  +20       9.14    86.94     7.39    85.80     5.58    27.06    17.52    79.99    99.31    85.66P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           29   55  +21       7.80    83.04    10.05    83.15     5.82    28.10    10.47    65.39    97.49    74.34P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              30   49   +7       2.73    63.28    -0.60    73.13     5.60    10.21     0.22     6.68    59.26    20.33P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           29   48  +22       0.78    53.56    10.95    76.28     5.88    29.34     1.26    20.49    80.71    38.38P    0.00     0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   27   48  +15       8.69    86.11    11.81    76.03     6.38    17.92     1.36    19.72    76.03    31.35P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield            32   48   +6       6.87    78.94     9.82    66.23     5.11     4.66     0.01     0.26    15.15     3.00P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       30   47   +8       4.75    71.56     6.04    71.12     5.69    11.19     0.05     3.25    46.90    12.88P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient        31   46   +1      -4.37    30.91   -10.88    71.10     5.55     7.85     0.04     3.19    45.39    16.30P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon        29   45  +10       3.52    66.70     7.58    68.92     5.85    10.83     0.05     2.31    32.86     8.92P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        31   44   +1       3.20    65.03     3.91    62.83     5.38    -1.75     0.00     0.08     5.54     1.17P    0.01R    0.00  
Carlisle             27   42   +4       4.77    72.63     4.15    67.44     6.39     2.60     0.06     1.73    24.70     6.24P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter               29   40   -2       1.01    55.20    -0.50    62.75     5.89    -2.95     0.00     0.12     6.61     1.41P    0.02R    0.00  
Luton                31   38   -2      -5.02    28.01    -2.75    59.46     5.44    -0.75     0.00     0.00     1.62     0.35P    0.07R    0.00  
Crawley_Town         31   37  -16      -2.81    37.72   -11.72    56.71     5.45   -17.43     0.00     0.00     0.40     0.10P    0.42R    0.03  
Morecambe            31   36   -5      -4.20    31.49    -0.71    56.35     5.53    -5.65     0.00     0.00     0.50     0.09P    0.44R    0.05  
Barnet               29   36   -6       1.40    57.64     2.20    56.16     5.80   -10.90     0.00     0.00     0.55     0.10P    0.62R    0.06  
Notts_County         28   36   -7      -4.36    30.18    -9.74    62.43     6.20    -4.51     0.00     0.14     6.99     1.92P    0.06R    0.01  
Stevenage            32   34  -12      -9.02    14.92   -10.34    51.63     5.21   -14.60     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.01P    2.52R    0.29  
Newport_County       29   30  -10      -4.84    27.68    -2.61    50.29     5.72   -14.51     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P    5.66R    1.10  
Hartlepool           27   27  -18      -0.82    46.88    -4.13    45.89     5.82   -28.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    23.50R    7.54  
Yeovil               30   24  -15     -13.60     4.44    -9.90    43.56     5.59   -18.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    33.02R   11.38  
York                 29   23  -22      -9.14    11.60   -10.51    41.27     5.52   -29.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    54.55R   23.87  
Dag_&_Red            30   20  -24     -12.75     5.16   -10.69    37.28     5.39   -31.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    79.11R   55.68  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 13 February 2016, Aldershot 0 0 Tranmere; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Cheltenham       32   72  +41       6.31    78.18     7.40    99.63     4.91    53.80    82.27   100.00    88.94P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     33   71  +26      12.28    92.88     5.49    93.09     4.95    32.57    15.20    99.92    36.72P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          31   59  +37      -2.98    34.55     7.52    86.13     5.22    46.79     2.49    97.23    39.27P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         33   54  +11      -3.45    34.30    -7.10    75.60     4.96    16.52     0.00    47.99    11.37P    0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic   31   52  +13       4.64    70.64     5.84    75.39     5.38    17.22     0.00    46.95     6.98P    0.00     0.00  
Braintree_Town   29   50  +12       6.80    80.66     6.81    75.57     5.65    15.50     0.02    47.26     7.65P    0.00     0.00  
Eastleigh        30   50   +7       3.75    67.21    -0.48    74.55     5.56    10.98     0.01    38.40     5.73P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham          33   49  +12      -2.55    38.39     2.61    67.88     4.86    13.49     0.00     6.51     1.08P    0.00     0.00  
Woking           33   49  +12      -4.27    31.31    -0.18    66.90     4.96    11.81     0.00     4.76     0.85P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City     34   49   +6       1.58    57.67     5.13    65.40     4.70     5.64     0.00     1.95     0.23P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead        31   48   -7       6.09    76.91    -5.75    66.94     5.28    -9.55     0.00     4.56     0.45P    0.00     0.00  
Macclesfield     33   47   +7      -2.31    39.37     1.02    66.84     4.92    10.04     0.00     4.09     0.68P    0.00R    0.00  
Aldershot        32   42   -7       1.21    56.07    -2.47    60.90     5.10    -7.45     0.00     0.20     0.02P    0.07R    0.00  
Southport        32   39  -10       4.08    69.97     3.31    56.02     4.97   -13.23     0.00     0.01     0.00     1.23R    0.05  
Bromley          31   38   -5       0.93    55.51     5.25    58.44     5.63    -5.66     0.00     0.16     0.02P    0.66R    0.02  
Barrow           32   38  -17       4.98    73.03     1.63    54.12     5.17   -22.02     0.00     0.01     0.00     3.64R    0.19  
Guiseley         31   37  -16       4.97    73.61     0.16    51.58     5.05   -24.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.52R    0.57  
Chester          31   35  -11      -0.06    50.65     0.99    53.28     5.24   -14.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.83R    0.37  
Altrincham       31   33  -20       2.43    63.46    -0.95    50.88     5.26   -24.17     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.34R    1.45  
Halifax          31   30  -21      -7.81    17.36   -12.49    47.12     5.25   -27.26     0.00     0.00     0.00    32.27R    6.28  
Boreham_Wood     31   29   -8      -5.25    26.16     2.99    46.71     5.17   -11.58     0.00     0.00     0.00    30.62R    5.38  
Welling          31   26  -18      -6.95    18.89    -3.92    41.83     5.05   -25.01     0.00     0.00     0.00    70.52R   28.17  
Kidderminster    31   23  -17     -13.40     4.49    -7.68    41.14     5.19   -20.73     0.00     0.00     0.00    73.05R   31.85  
Torquay          29   20  -27     -12.73     4.65   -15.14    42.80     5.78   -27.99     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.26R   25.66