Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 12 February 2016 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 7 February 2016, Bournemouth 0 2 Arsenal; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Leicester        25   53  +20      15.49    98.46    15.35    73.12     4.90    23.47    30.02    56.55    78.53    92.97    99.52     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        25   48  +26       3.88    70.04    10.97    69.58     4.87    31.58    13.03    31.58    55.16    81.97    97.99     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          25   48  +17       1.78    59.23    -1.04    72.09     4.70    26.64    25.04    49.52    72.53    90.87    99.39     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         25   47  +21      -3.22    31.30    -4.89    72.58     4.75    33.34    30.62    57.09    78.44    93.06    99.53     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          25   41  +10      -1.84    39.81    -2.65    63.74     4.83    17.22     1.20     4.67    12.50    29.21    81.57     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham         25   39   +9       3.66    69.49     7.51    57.12     4.88     9.48     0.03     0.24     0.96     3.56    29.65     0.00     0.00  
Southampton      25   37   +9      -2.47    36.64     1.36    57.51     4.88    12.95     0.03     0.20     1.06     3.99    34.81     0.00     0.00  
Everton          25   35  +12      -4.29    28.16     4.55    56.27     4.95    17.28     0.02     0.12     0.59     2.87    28.51     0.00R    0.00  
Liverpool        25   35   -4      -1.59    41.71    -7.21    54.63     4.98    -1.38     0.01     0.03     0.17     1.02    14.48     0.02R    0.00  
Watford          25   33   +0       3.08    67.08     6.57    49.67     4.84    -1.70     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.06     2.40     0.18R    0.00  
Stoke            25   33   -7       2.25    63.09    -2.23    49.91     4.75    -8.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05     2.36     0.20R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   25   32   -4       2.40    64.14     2.74    47.58     4.72    -7.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.90     0.61R    0.00  
Chelsea          25   30   -2     -12.47     4.13   -14.39    52.83     4.91     5.50     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.36     8.78     0.06R    0.00  
West_Brom        25   29   -9       0.22    52.23    -1.29    42.91     4.60   -15.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     6.10R    0.09  
Bournemouth      25   28  -12       1.24    58.01     0.76    41.45     4.71   -19.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03    11.77R    0.36  
Swansea          25   27   -9      -3.94    29.54    -4.11    42.18     4.71   -12.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     8.36R    0.22  
Newcastle        25   24  -18      -0.79    46.75    -2.34    37.45     4.63   -25.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    39.36R    3.58  
Norwich          25   23  -20      -1.61    42.09    -3.47    35.48     4.59   -29.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    58.83R    6.81  
Sunderland       25   20  -19      -4.33    26.53    -2.34    32.66     4.59   -26.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    77.50R   16.35  
Aston_Villa      25   16  -20      -7.54    12.18    -3.86    27.08     4.29   -30.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.02R   72.59  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 9 February 2016, MK_Dons 1 1 Middlesbrough; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Middlesbrough   29   57  +23       6.14    78.88     6.92    86.47     5.58    31.71    32.92    62.83    99.05    74.74P    0.00     0.00  
Hull            29   56  +26       2.97    64.44     6.85    87.54     5.52    37.97    44.78    73.08    99.39    82.76P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley         30   55  +22       2.86    63.45     5.62    83.57     5.46    31.67    16.59    41.67    97.42    60.11P    0.00     0.00  
Brighton        29   53   +9      10.88    91.82     5.00    76.98     5.56    10.48     2.03     7.52    74.48    19.97P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           30   51  +14       0.97    54.41     0.48    78.51     5.44    22.32     3.06    11.50    84.99    32.63P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed       30   50  +12       6.94    80.38     8.74    73.36     5.42    14.34     0.36     1.86    52.87    11.49P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich         30   48   +2       4.71    72.06    -1.47    71.79     5.47     4.99     0.18     0.99    37.80     7.91P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham      30   47   +8       5.79    76.64     7.44    68.83     5.46     8.21     0.04     0.33    20.52     3.77P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff         30   45   +5       2.57    63.13     2.51    67.30     5.47     5.66     0.03     0.17    14.38     2.79P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   30   42   +6      -0.94    45.60     2.74    64.58     5.46     7.09     0.01     0.03     6.58     1.34P    0.00R    0.00  
Wolverhampton   30   40   -1      -3.52    33.61    -4.81    62.27     5.44    -0.39     0.00     0.01     2.67     0.57P    0.02R    0.00  
Brentford       30   40   -2      -1.52    43.05    -2.68    63.35     5.56     0.12     0.00     0.01     4.42     0.74P    0.01R    0.00  
QPR             30   39   +1      -5.03    27.75    -3.51    62.84     5.59     4.10     0.00     0.01     3.94     0.88P    0.01R    0.00  
Preston         30   39   -1      -0.08    50.11     0.91    59.86     5.39    -1.85     0.00     0.00     0.90     0.16P    0.05R    0.00  
Reading         30   36   +0      -3.12    35.36     2.43    56.87     5.40    -1.06     0.00     0.00     0.23     0.02P    0.41R    0.01  
Leeds_United    30   36   -5      -0.74    46.92     0.57    55.78     5.32    -7.57     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.02P    0.71R    0.01  
Huddersfield    30   32   -4      -5.04    26.71     2.35    50.65     5.43    -8.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P    6.24R    0.45  
Blackburn       28   31   +0      -8.08    14.58    -1.68    56.00     5.79     0.83     0.00     0.00     0.27     0.08P    0.92R    0.04  
Fulham          29   29   -5      -7.61    17.12     0.65    50.65     5.71    -7.79     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    7.54R    0.76  
MK_Dons         30   28  -18      -5.23    25.89    -6.84    46.22     5.36   -23.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.36R    4.17  
Bristol_City    30   28  -22      -4.03    30.93    -8.63    45.08     5.32   -29.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    35.63R    6.63  
Rotherham       30   25  -19      -5.38    24.75    -1.98    40.15     5.10   -29.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.77R   25.22  
Bolton          30   24  -21      -9.01    12.21    -8.98    40.51     5.16   -28.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    69.17R   23.62  
Charlton        30   24  -30      -5.50    23.50   -12.61    39.01     5.03   -40.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    81.16R   39.10  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Friday 12 February 2016, Burton_Albion 1 0 Chesterfield; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Burton_Albion    30   63  +17      17.69    98.43    10.77    86.95     5.66    20.07    42.22    67.27    98.84    73.66P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall          29   56  +17      10.41    90.24     8.43    83.11     5.73    22.71    19.01    41.39    94.77    54.37P    0.00     0.00  
Wigan            30   55  +21      -0.10    48.84     0.19    84.14     5.53    31.69    25.76    52.48    96.77    68.85P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham       30   55  +19       7.77    82.36     9.76    80.64     5.68    24.61    10.36    27.10    89.20    41.55P    0.00     0.00  
Coventry         30   49  +16       2.77    63.22     8.40    73.42     5.65    19.70     0.80     3.55    50.45    14.52P    0.00R    0.00  
Millwall         29   47   +9       1.77    58.24     0.73    73.48     5.93    13.67     0.98     3.88    48.93    15.21P    0.00R    0.00  
Southend         29   47   +6       7.86    83.01     6.74    69.69     5.78     5.26     0.20     0.88    22.92     4.98P    0.01R    0.00  
Peterborough     29   44  +13      -1.88    40.94     3.60    72.30     5.87    20.62     0.51     2.38    43.82    13.76P    0.00R    0.00  
Port_Vale        31   44   -1       3.74    67.72     2.19    64.40     5.34    -1.22     0.00     0.03     4.26     0.83P    0.21R    0.00  
Barnsley         29   42   +6      -1.77    41.56     0.17    67.41     5.87     9.20     0.06     0.38    15.37     3.81P    0.05R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd        29   42   +4      -2.74    36.90    -3.51    68.39     5.86     8.57     0.06     0.45    18.60     5.13P    0.05R    0.00  
Bradford         28   41   -3       3.84    69.24    -1.56    65.54     5.89    -2.90     0.03     0.16     8.09     1.68P    0.22R    0.00  
Scunthorpe       28   38   -4       2.45    62.72     0.48    60.97     6.00    -6.80     0.00     0.02     2.02     0.37P    2.11R    0.00  
Rochdale         28   37   -2      -0.87    46.05    -0.91    62.38     6.09    -1.18     0.00     0.03     3.52     0.78P    1.30R    0.01  
Bury             28   37   -7       3.90    69.32     1.35    57.79     5.99   -13.19     0.00     0.00     0.69     0.12P    6.27R    0.05  
Doncaster        29   36   -4      -3.22    35.10    -3.23    58.66     5.84    -4.91     0.00     0.00     0.66     0.15P    4.12R    0.05  
Swindon          30   36   -5      -7.82    17.54    -8.92    59.64     5.67    -2.56     0.00     0.00     0.88     0.19P    2.70R    0.01  
Blackpool        29   33   -7      -3.65    33.39    -2.94    55.51     5.75    -7.96     0.00     0.00     0.18     0.03P   11.51R    0.25  
Chesterfield     30   30  -12      -9.00    13.60    -8.41    52.14     5.64   -11.90     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   25.23R    0.88  
Shrewsbury       30   30  -15      -5.41    25.82    -6.35    47.96     5.49   -21.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    57.07R    3.95  
Fleetwood_Town   28   29   -3      -6.86    19.07     0.57    51.03     5.89    -6.79     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.01P   31.01R    1.29  
Crewe            29   26  -20      -2.57    37.95    -2.18    43.02     5.43   -29.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.80R   19.66  
Oldham           27   24  -13      -7.47    15.88    -4.88    44.61     5.90   -21.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    75.69R   12.14  
Colchester       29   22  -32      -5.85    22.68   -10.49    38.21     5.48   -44.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    96.63R   61.71  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 9 February 2016, Dag_&_Red 1 2 Wycombe; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Northampton          28   61  +20      15.71    97.62     9.55    89.69     6.12    25.97    62.37    93.26    99.74    94.71P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth             29   56  +17       8.80    86.24     6.17    83.98     5.77    23.77    19.72    74.44    97.69    80.93P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           28   52  +19       7.25    81.77     9.68    81.39     6.05    25.89    12.48    59.64    94.25    69.00P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield            31   48   +9       7.01    80.06    11.05    67.62     5.35     7.71     0.03     1.29    21.53     5.03P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       29   47  +10       5.20    73.68     6.70    72.72     5.91    13.57     0.60     9.56    55.80    20.46P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              29   46   +6       1.68    58.32    -0.76    71.77     5.86     9.65     0.43     7.29    47.93    17.68P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient        30   46   +5      -4.64    29.10    -9.36    73.40     5.72    13.26     0.75    11.45    60.90    28.15P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           28   45  +20       0.01    49.72    10.22    74.61     6.03    27.29     1.61    18.47    69.98    33.41P    0.00     0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   26   45  +12       8.08    84.76    10.35    73.96     6.62    14.19     1.64    16.48    61.92    25.51P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        30   44   +3       3.75    67.78     4.65    64.65     5.65     0.92     0.01     0.49    10.26     2.30P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon        28   42   +7       3.00    65.07     6.16    66.83     6.07     7.19     0.07     1.77    20.51     5.72P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle             26   42   +5       5.95    77.69     4.89    69.07     6.61     3.99     0.25     4.58    32.21     9.76P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter               28   40   -1       1.83    59.16    -0.29    64.01     6.09    -2.12     0.01     0.49     9.45     2.29P    0.01R    0.00  
Luton                30   38   +1      -4.65    29.18    -1.31    61.48     5.65     3.24     0.00     0.09     3.82     1.07P    0.01R    0.00  
Crawley_Town         30   37  -13      -2.58    38.50   -10.58    58.42     5.69   -13.86     0.00     0.00     0.98     0.22P    0.21R    0.03  
Morecambe            30   36   -3      -3.74    33.17    -0.27    57.73     5.69    -3.59     0.00     0.00     0.91     0.21P    0.15R    0.03  
Notts_County         27   36   -6      -3.23    34.80    -9.11    64.56     6.39    -2.31     0.02     0.69    11.86     3.52P    0.02R    0.00  
Barnet               28   33   -8       0.50    53.32     1.33    54.10     6.00   -13.60     0.00     0.01     0.24     0.04P    1.46R    0.27  
Stevenage            31   31  -14      -9.76    12.12   -11.01    49.72     5.43   -17.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    4.67R    0.96  
Newport_County       28   27  -11      -6.24    21.23    -3.20    48.32     5.94   -16.08     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    9.16R    2.36  
Yeovil               29   24  -14     -12.44     5.98    -9.33    45.34     5.81   -16.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.62R    6.50  
Hartlepool           26   24  -19      -1.91    40.89    -4.35    43.64     5.97   -30.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    33.79R   14.07  
Dag_&_Red            29   20  -22     -12.07     5.79    -9.82    38.85     5.62   -29.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    65.58R   37.91  
York                 28   20  -23     -10.60     7.83   -11.36    39.04     5.72   -31.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    65.33R   37.86  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 9 February 2016, Altrincham 1 1 Wrexham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Cheltenham       31   69  +39       5.92    76.89     7.22    98.81     5.08    53.10    80.53   100.00    87.94P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     32   68  +24      11.45    91.72     4.74    91.72     5.17    30.98    13.36    99.69    35.05P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          30   58  +37      -2.26    37.66     7.83    87.57     5.39    48.44     6.01    97.99    41.93P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         32   53  +11      -2.93    36.23    -6.97    76.40     5.20    17.14     0.02    52.37    12.27P    0.00     0.00  
Eastleigh        30   50   +7       3.70    66.95    -0.56    74.43     5.57    10.74     0.01    35.84     5.53P    0.00     0.00  
Woking           32   49  +13      -2.86    36.91     0.85    69.26     5.16    14.36     0.00    10.46     1.76P    0.00     0.00  
Braintree_Town   28   49  +12       7.03    82.06     6.63    76.25     5.88    15.87     0.06    50.00     8.02P    0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic   30   49   +9       4.70    71.56     4.52    73.43     5.64    12.68     0.01    30.29     4.21P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City     33   48   +6       2.08    59.88     5.29    66.03     4.92     6.06     0.00     2.51     0.28P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead        30   48   -3       5.81    76.32    -4.23    68.55     5.49    -5.19     0.00     7.96     0.95P    0.00     0.00  
Macclesfield     32   47   +9      -1.62    42.57     2.01    68.78     5.12    12.85     0.00     8.40     1.38P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham          32   46  +10      -3.21    35.52     2.15    66.61     5.08    12.03     0.00     3.96     0.60P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot        31   41   -7       1.52    58.03    -2.40    60.83     5.30    -8.11     0.00     0.21     0.02P    0.09R    0.00  
Bromley          30   38   -3       1.51    57.69     6.00    59.55     5.80    -4.14     0.00     0.32     0.05P    0.43R    0.01  
Southport        31   38  -10       4.30    71.16     3.16    56.14     5.17   -13.49     0.00     0.02     0.00P    1.19R    0.05  
Barrow           32   38  -17       4.93    72.92     1.62    54.16     5.15   -21.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.10R    0.14  
Chester          31   35  -11      -0.02    50.74     1.09    53.27     5.24   -14.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.27R    0.26  
Guiseley         30   34  -17       3.33    67.25    -0.73    49.00     5.17   -27.59     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.61R    1.83  
Altrincham       30   32  -20       2.72    65.22    -1.30    50.89     5.47   -24.62     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.78R    1.30  
Halifax          30   30  -19      -7.15    19.10   -11.64    48.31     5.46   -25.58     0.00     0.00     0.00    22.83R    3.72  
Boreham_Wood     30   28   -8      -5.56    24.66     2.15    46.39     5.33   -12.71     0.00     0.00     0.00    31.36R    5.13  
Welling          30   26  -16      -6.47    20.33    -3.32    42.38     5.17   -24.43     0.00     0.00     0.00    64.14R   20.49  
Kidderminster    30   20  -19     -14.45     2.88    -8.83    38.89     5.38   -23.61     0.00     0.00     0.00    82.43R   45.72  
Torquay          29   20  -27     -12.85     4.45   -15.30    42.82     5.84   -27.99     0.00     0.00     0.00    59.76R   21.37