Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 11 February 2016 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 7 February 2016, Bournemouth 0 2 Arsenal; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Leicester        25   53  +20      15.49    98.31    15.39    73.09     4.89    23.44    29.76    56.28    78.29    92.96    99.54     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        25   48  +26       3.84    69.80    10.90    69.56     4.89    31.57    13.18    31.45    54.65    81.63    97.99     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          25   48  +17       1.75    58.92    -1.07    72.12     4.69    26.63    24.87    49.70    72.93    91.08    99.36     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         25   47  +21      -3.24    31.20    -4.90    72.60     4.71    33.37    30.95    57.36    78.75    93.38    99.53     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          25   41  +10      -1.88    39.42    -2.70    63.78     4.80    17.26     1.16     4.60    12.46    29.10    81.92     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham         25   39   +9       3.74    69.99     7.66    57.12     4.87     9.44     0.03     0.22     0.94     3.62    29.87     0.00     0.00  
Southampton      25   37   +9      -2.47    36.51     1.34    57.49     4.91    12.92     0.05     0.26     1.13     3.99    34.47     0.00R    0.00  
Everton          25   35  +12      -4.31    27.79     4.50    56.26     4.93    17.27     0.00     0.09     0.58     2.76    28.32     0.00R    0.00  
Liverpool        25   35   -4      -1.49    42.08    -7.03    54.54     5.02    -1.49     0.00     0.01     0.18     0.96    14.18     0.01R    0.00  
Watford          25   33   +0       2.98    66.62     6.47    49.72     4.82    -1.64     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.08     2.45     0.19R    0.00  
Stoke            25   33   -7       2.25    62.78    -2.27    49.90     4.74    -8.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05     2.24     0.18R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   25   32   -4       2.48    64.69     2.85    47.55     4.74    -7.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.98     0.63R    0.00  
Chelsea          25   30   -2     -12.55     3.93   -14.48    52.86     4.94     5.52     0.00     0.01     0.07     0.38     9.03     0.06R    0.00  
West_Brom        25   29   -9       0.12    51.70    -1.46    43.00     4.61   -14.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06     6.04R    0.09  
Bournemouth      25   28  -12       1.18    57.42     0.64    41.46     4.72   -19.32     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03    11.80R    0.35  
Swansea          25   27   -9      -3.92    29.56    -4.03    42.19     4.70   -12.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     8.22R    0.25  
Newcastle        25   24  -18      -0.61    47.58    -2.06    37.37     4.58   -25.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    40.19R    3.51  
Norwich          25   23  -20      -1.73    41.39    -3.64    35.55     4.61   -28.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    58.14R    6.34  
Sunderland       25   20  -19      -4.36    26.49    -2.46    32.69     4.62   -26.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    77.26R   16.21  
Aston_Villa      25   16  -20      -7.41    12.89    -3.65    27.01     4.27   -30.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.26R   73.24  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 9 February 2016, MK_Dons 1 1 Middlesbrough; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Middlesbrough   29   57  +23       6.17    78.87     7.01    86.55     5.54    31.81    33.14    63.54    99.17    75.60P    0.00     0.00  
Hull            29   56  +26       2.95    64.15     6.86    87.46     5.55    37.87    44.06    72.17    99.31    81.98P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley         30   55  +22       2.67    62.48     5.32    83.64     5.52    31.75    17.00    42.09    97.39    60.80P    0.00     0.00  
Brighton        29   53   +9      10.80    91.73     4.87    77.02     5.57    10.54     2.00     7.33    74.19    19.66P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           30   51  +14       1.09    55.04     0.63    78.52     5.49    22.29     3.15    11.47    84.70    32.50P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed       30   50  +12       6.85    80.23     8.61    73.42     5.43    14.43     0.40     1.92    52.89    11.21P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich         30   48   +2       4.53    71.28    -1.70    71.89     5.51     5.12     0.19     1.01    38.07     7.91P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham      30   47   +8       5.44    75.39     6.95    69.07     5.42     8.53     0.05     0.32    21.38     3.85P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff         30   45   +5       2.65    63.27     2.64    67.22     5.47     5.61     0.00     0.11    14.05     2.66P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   30   42   +6      -1.03    45.21     2.60    64.60     5.43     7.11     0.01     0.03     6.61     1.36P    0.00R    0.00  
Wolverhampton   30   40   -1      -3.63    32.87    -5.01    62.30     5.44    -0.28     0.00     0.00     2.72     0.52P    0.02R    0.00  
Brentford       30   40   -2      -1.54    42.99    -2.66    63.33     5.57     0.12     0.00     0.01     4.32     0.80P    0.02R    0.00  
QPR             30   39   +1      -4.90    27.92    -3.34    62.79     5.56     4.02     0.00     0.01     3.78     0.91P    0.01R    0.00  
Preston         30   39   -1       0.23    51.63     1.27    59.77     5.35    -1.98     0.00     0.00     0.84     0.12P    0.05R    0.00  
Reading         30   36   +0      -3.03    35.69     2.57    56.80     5.41    -1.11     0.00     0.00     0.22     0.05P    0.42R    0.01  
Leeds_United    30   36   -5      -0.63    47.35     0.73    55.70     5.26    -7.68     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.02P    0.68R    0.02  
Huddersfield    30   32   -4      -5.06    26.63     2.34    50.64     5.44    -8.95     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     6.30R    0.45  
Blackburn       28   31   +0      -7.82    15.54    -1.33    55.82     5.77     0.58     0.00     0.00     0.23     0.04P    1.01R    0.03  
Fulham          29   29   -5      -7.54    17.25     0.71    50.65     5.68    -7.74     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     7.36R    0.67  
MK_Dons         30   28  -18      -5.19    26.23    -6.72    46.22     5.35   -23.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.19R    4.10  
Bristol_City    30   28  -22      -4.29    29.76    -9.02    45.29     5.33   -29.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    34.09R    6.04  
Rotherham       30   25  -19      -5.33    24.93    -1.98    40.06     5.11   -29.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    72.19R   25.63  
Bolton          30   24  -21      -8.90    12.30    -8.82    40.38     5.19   -29.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    70.00R   24.32  
Charlton        30   24  -30      -5.48    23.49   -12.52    38.99     5.04   -40.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    81.65R   38.73  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 7 February 2016, Barnsley 3 0 Bury; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Burton_Albion    29   60  +16      16.64    97.95    10.58    85.52     5.85    19.34    35.06    59.52    97.49    67.24P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall          29   56  +17      10.33    89.84     8.31    83.11     5.80    22.73    21.64    44.08    94.64    56.53P    0.00     0.00  
Wigan            30   55  +21      -0.05    49.07     0.30    84.02     5.54    31.50    28.35    54.19    96.69    69.80P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham       30   55  +19       7.87    82.85     9.93    80.59     5.70    24.54    11.51    28.71    89.26    42.62P    0.00     0.00  
Coventry         30   49  +16       2.73    62.85     8.32    73.39     5.62    19.69     1.02     3.82    50.32    14.88P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         29   47   +9       1.76    58.23     0.70    73.49     5.96    13.68     1.30     4.49    49.23    15.82P    0.00     0.00  
Southend         29   47   +6       7.76    82.63     6.67    69.75     5.78     5.29     0.26     1.08    23.29     5.31P    0.02R    0.00  
Peterborough     29   44  +13      -1.91    40.95     3.59    72.29     5.87    20.62     0.62     2.75    43.93    13.87P    0.00R    0.00  
Port_Vale        31   44   -1       3.88    68.30     2.40    64.32     5.38    -1.33     0.01     0.04     4.42     0.86P    0.27R    0.00  
Barnsley         29   42   +6      -1.82    41.03     0.07    67.52     5.87     9.35     0.08     0.45    15.67     4.15P    0.08R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd        29   42   +4      -2.89    36.27    -3.71    68.43     5.90     8.66     0.12     0.65    19.17     5.51P    0.04R    0.00  
Bradford         28   41   -3       3.98    69.89    -1.39    65.50     5.90    -2.98     0.03     0.16     7.86     1.69P    0.27R    0.00  
Scunthorpe       28   38   -4       2.55    63.25     0.58    60.86     5.98    -6.96     0.01     0.01     1.87     0.34P    2.26R    0.01  
Rochdale         28   37   -2      -0.99    45.61    -1.10    62.49     6.09    -1.00     0.01     0.04     3.71     0.81P    1.35R    0.00  
Bury             28   37   -7       4.03    70.07     1.56    57.72     5.95   -13.25     0.00     0.00     0.64     0.09P    6.70R    0.06  
Doncaster        29   36   -4      -3.32    34.53    -3.40    58.71     5.84    -4.86     0.00     0.00     0.72     0.16P    4.21R    0.03  
Swindon          30   36   -5      -8.03    16.89    -9.20    59.72     5.67    -2.43     0.00     0.00     0.88     0.26P    2.87R    0.02  
Blackpool        29   33   -7      -3.69    33.03    -2.98    55.56     5.74    -7.89     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.03P   11.75R    0.19  
Chesterfield     29   30  -11      -7.88    16.67    -7.78    53.19     5.84   -11.35     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P   21.24R    0.73  
Shrewsbury       30   30  -15      -5.53    25.23    -6.49    48.06     5.49   -20.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    57.80R    3.81  
Fleetwood_Town   28   29   -3      -6.90    18.86     0.48    51.06     5.86    -6.75     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   31.58R    1.38  
Crewe            29   26  -20      -2.65    37.26    -2.29    43.07     5.43   -29.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.34R   19.35  
Oldham           27   24  -13      -7.47    15.82    -4.81    44.68     5.90   -21.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    76.24R   11.99  
Colchester       29   22  -32      -5.76    23.07   -10.34    38.13     5.50   -44.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    96.96R   62.44  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 9 February 2016, Dag_&_Red 1 2 Wycombe; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Northampton          28   61  +20      15.65    97.54     9.41    89.70     6.13    25.99    62.15    93.30    99.68    94.78P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth             29   56  +17       8.80    86.28     6.17    84.02     5.80    23.83    19.90    74.64    97.72    80.86P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           28   52  +19       7.24    81.74     9.63    81.39     6.04    25.91    12.51    59.79    94.36    69.14P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield            31   48   +9       7.23    80.52    11.31    67.51     5.31     7.56     0.03     1.21    20.77     4.73P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       29   47  +10       5.21    73.97     6.73    72.60     5.87    13.42     0.55     8.99    54.96    19.95P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              29   46   +6       1.57    57.68    -0.94    71.85     5.82     9.74     0.41     7.15    48.44    17.95P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient        30   46   +5      -4.73    28.73    -9.53    73.47     5.75    13.37     0.72    11.81    61.22    28.37P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           28   45  +20      -0.00    50.04    10.21    74.69     6.09    27.41     1.76    19.05    70.40    33.75P    0.00     0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   26   45  +12       8.17    85.24    10.51    73.77     6.60    13.88     1.50    15.66    61.12    24.80P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        30   44   +3       3.87    68.05     4.82    64.55     5.63     0.80     0.00     0.46     9.97     2.24P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon        28   42   +7       2.90    64.40     6.06    66.93     6.13     7.30     0.09     1.95    21.45     5.97P    0.00R    0.00  
Carlisle             26   42   +5       5.92    77.47     4.83    69.09     6.63     4.02     0.32     4.59    32.18    10.00P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter               28   40   -1       2.05    60.39     0.04    63.92     6.08    -2.26     0.01     0.44     9.25     2.12P    0.01R    0.00  
Luton                30   38   +1      -4.63    29.18    -1.27    61.40     5.63     3.13     0.00     0.08     3.68     0.91P    0.03R    0.01  
Crawley_Town         30   37  -13      -2.72    38.12   -10.77    58.50     5.69   -13.76     0.00     0.01     1.00     0.24P    0.16R    0.02  
Morecambe            30   36   -3      -3.74    33.25    -0.32    57.79     5.73    -3.53     0.00     0.02     0.99     0.20P    0.19R    0.03  
Notts_County         27   36   -6      -3.16    35.41    -9.06    64.58     6.50    -2.27     0.04     0.84    12.50     3.97P    0.02R    0.00  
Barnet               28   33   -8       0.45    53.31     1.29    54.12     5.99   -13.55     0.00     0.00     0.29     0.04P    1.47R    0.26  
Stevenage            31   31  -14      -9.88    12.03   -11.18    49.80     5.44   -16.89     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    4.59R    0.88  
Newport_County       28   27  -11      -6.13    21.65    -3.02    48.32     5.91   -16.09     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    9.09R    2.26  
Yeovil               29   24  -14     -12.52     5.65    -9.44    45.33     5.81   -16.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.77R    6.57  
Hartlepool           26   24  -19      -2.08    39.80    -4.57    43.80     6.01   -30.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    33.23R   13.60  
Dag_&_Red            29   20  -22     -11.97     5.94    -9.63    38.81     5.67   -29.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    65.77R   38.41  
York                 28   20  -23     -10.61     7.82   -11.29    39.00     5.70   -31.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    65.67R   37.96  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 9 February 2016, Altrincham 1 1 Wrexham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Cheltenham       31   69  +39       5.91    76.38     7.17    98.84     5.08    53.15    80.59   100.00    87.91P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     32   68  +24      11.40    91.68     4.74    91.76     5.22    31.04    13.53    99.70    35.09P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          30   58  +37      -2.24    37.80     7.85    87.55     5.37    48.37     5.77    97.94    41.86P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         32   53  +11      -2.74    36.95    -6.67    76.31     5.18    17.00     0.01    51.10    11.84P    0.00     0.00  
Eastleigh        30   50   +7       3.58    66.74    -0.76    74.50     5.58    10.91     0.00    36.61     5.45P    0.00     0.00  
Woking           32   49  +13      -2.89    36.66     0.79    69.22     5.17    14.28     0.00    10.32     1.77P    0.00     0.00  
Braintree_Town   28   49  +12       6.97    81.67     6.57    76.29     5.87    15.92     0.09    50.34     8.31P    0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic   30   49   +9       4.57    71.07     4.30    73.53     5.62    12.81     0.01    30.86     4.42P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City     33   48   +6       2.06    59.49     5.20    65.99     4.92     6.01     0.00     2.53     0.34P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead        30   48   -3       5.82    76.22    -4.26    68.57     5.53    -5.16     0.00     8.18     0.99P    0.00     0.00  
Macclesfield     32   47   +9      -1.61    42.53     2.05    68.70     5.14    12.75     0.00     8.04     1.36P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham          32   46  +10      -3.18    35.43     2.19    66.58     5.09    12.03     0.00     3.79     0.61P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot        31   41   -7       1.37    57.30    -2.53    60.91     5.31    -8.01     0.00     0.26     0.02P    0.08R    0.00  
Bromley          30   38   -3       1.43    57.44     5.82    59.60     5.81    -4.06     0.00     0.30     0.03P    0.42R    0.01  
Southport        31   38  -10       4.30    71.33     3.16    56.21     5.20   -13.42     0.00     0.01     0.00P    1.29R    0.03  
Barrow           32   38  -17       4.86    72.56     1.57    54.17     5.17   -21.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.05R    0.13  
Chester          31   35  -11       0.03    51.08     1.10    53.31     5.27   -14.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.22R    0.29  
Guiseley         30   34  -17       3.30    67.24    -0.74    49.03     5.23   -27.57     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.20R    1.79  
Altrincham       30   32  -20       2.84    65.58    -1.11    50.90     5.47   -24.66     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.80R    1.26  
Halifax          30   30  -19      -7.14    19.48   -11.58    48.24     5.43   -25.66     0.00     0.00     0.00    23.13R    3.47  
Boreham_Wood     30   28   -8      -5.46    25.16     2.26    46.29     5.36   -12.87     0.00     0.00     0.00    31.68R    5.23  
Welling          30   26  -16      -6.40    20.77    -3.23    42.37     5.20   -24.45     0.00     0.00     0.00    63.78R   20.95  
Kidderminster    30   20  -19     -14.43     2.90    -8.80    38.89     5.40   -23.61     0.00     0.00     0.00    82.22R   45.67  
Torquay          29   20  -27     -12.73     4.57   -15.11    42.75     5.77   -28.09     0.00     0.00     0.00    60.13R   21.17