Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Wednesday 10 February 2016 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 7 February 2016, Bournemouth 0 2 Arsenal; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Leicester        25   53  +20      15.41    98.37    15.25    73.11     4.88    23.45    30.00    56.54    78.73    93.12    99.56     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        25   48  +26       3.99    70.49    11.16    69.49     4.88    31.48    12.72    30.91    54.16    81.54    97.88     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          25   48  +17       1.77    59.27    -1.04    72.07     4.69    26.58    24.81    49.14    72.56    90.95    99.38     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         25   47  +21      -3.37    30.58    -5.11    72.64     4.73    33.43    31.28    58.12    78.98    93.16    99.58     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          25   41  +10      -1.82    39.52    -2.64    63.80     4.79    17.30     1.09     4.70    12.65    29.66    82.20     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham         25   39   +9       3.73    69.98     7.66    57.12     4.88     9.47     0.04     0.21     0.99     3.53    29.86     0.00     0.00  
Southampton      25   37   +9      -2.35    37.48     1.50    57.45     4.86    12.87     0.04     0.20     1.00     3.76    34.18     0.00     0.00  
Everton          25   35  +12      -4.34    27.75     4.47    56.32     4.91    17.35     0.01     0.13     0.65     2.79    28.55     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        25   35   -4      -1.64    41.30    -7.30    54.65     4.96    -1.36     0.00     0.04     0.20     0.97    14.25     0.01R    0.00  
Watford          25   33   +0       3.22    67.76     6.86    49.62     4.82    -1.80     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.05     2.37     0.18R    0.00  
Stoke            25   33   -7       2.20    63.01    -2.33    49.95     4.72    -8.23     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.05     2.32     0.19R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   25   32   -4       2.45    64.44     2.81    47.60     4.73    -7.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.92     0.61R    0.00  
Chelsea          25   30   -2     -12.53     4.12   -14.50    52.85     4.94     5.50     0.00     0.01     0.05     0.39     8.81     0.06R    0.00  
West_Brom        25   29   -9       0.13    51.73    -1.46    42.96     4.58   -14.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06     5.85R    0.10  
Bournemouth      25   28  -12       1.26    57.99     0.79    41.40     4.71   -19.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04    12.04R    0.42  
Swansea          25   27   -9      -3.95    29.02    -4.11    42.20     4.72   -12.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     8.37R    0.28  
Newcastle        25   24  -18      -0.77    47.08    -2.39    37.45     4.62   -25.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    39.64R    3.48  
Norwich          25   23  -20      -1.78    41.46    -3.77    35.59     4.58   -28.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    58.15R    6.03  
Sunderland       25   20  -19      -4.28    26.81    -2.26    32.62     4.59   -26.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    77.78R   16.41  
Aston_Villa      25   16  -20      -7.43    12.54    -3.59    27.00     4.28   -30.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.13R   73.28  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 9 February 2016, MK_Dons 1 1 Middlesbrough; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Middlesbrough   29   57  +23       6.08    78.67     6.93    86.55     5.56    31.77    33.33    63.58    99.14    75.29P    0.00     0.00  
Hull            29   56  +26       2.95    64.37     6.83    87.53     5.51    37.93    44.72    73.04    99.41    82.75P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley         30   55  +22       2.97    63.83     5.75    83.53     5.49    31.58    16.16    41.28    97.17    59.91P    0.00     0.00  
Brighton        29   53   +9      10.83    91.87     4.90    77.04     5.57    10.57     2.15     7.60    74.28    20.00P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           30   51  +14       1.47    56.97     1.18    78.28     5.54    21.98     2.99    10.93    83.71    31.68P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed       30   50  +12       6.89    80.24     8.67    73.42     5.45    14.42     0.40     2.06    53.14    11.67P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich         30   48   +2       4.60    71.68    -1.56    71.81     5.48     5.00     0.19     1.02    38.02     8.12P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham      30   47   +8       5.52    75.70     7.07    68.99     5.46     8.42     0.06     0.32    21.53     3.95P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff         30   45   +5       2.53    62.66     2.50    67.31     5.46     5.70     0.01     0.12    14.48     2.81P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   30   42   +6      -1.03    45.25     2.62    64.59     5.43     7.11     0.01     0.02     6.63     1.37P    0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton   30   40   -1      -3.55    33.36    -4.89    62.30     5.47    -0.33     0.00     0.02     2.87     0.59P    0.02R    0.00  
Brentford       30   40   -2      -1.61    42.40    -2.83    63.40     5.57     0.23     0.00     0.01     4.23     0.80P    0.02R    0.00  
QPR             30   39   +1      -4.81    28.11    -3.25    62.73     5.55     3.93     0.00     0.00     3.72     0.76P    0.01R    0.00  
Preston         30   39   -1       0.04    50.75     1.06    59.78     5.36    -1.94     0.00     0.00     0.99     0.18P    0.06R    0.00  
Reading         30   36   +0      -3.07    35.18     2.51    56.87     5.37    -1.06     0.00     0.00     0.26     0.06P    0.37R    0.01  
Leeds_United    30   36   -5      -0.65    47.41     0.66    55.72     5.27    -7.68     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.01P    0.68R    0.02  
Huddersfield    30   32   -4      -4.99    27.04     2.45    50.64     5.42    -8.98     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     6.24R    0.45  
Blackburn       28   31   +0      -7.93    15.03    -1.47    55.97     5.79     0.78     0.00     0.00     0.30     0.06P    0.94R    0.03  
Fulham          29   29   -5      -7.79    16.82     0.40    50.70     5.73    -7.68     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    7.59R    0.78  
MK_Dons         30   28  -18      -5.18    26.27    -6.78    46.14     5.35   -23.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    27.02R    4.36  
Bristol_City    30   28  -22      -4.23    30.14    -8.93    45.23     5.34   -29.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    34.93R    6.05  
Rotherham       30   25  -19      -5.45    24.40    -2.12    40.17     5.12   -29.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.56R   25.23  
Bolton          30   24  -21      -9.08    11.67    -9.12    40.46     5.19   -29.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    69.40R   24.10  
Charlton        30   24  -30      -5.47    23.52   -12.58    39.02     5.04   -40.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    81.18R   38.95  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 7 February 2016, Barnsley 3 0 Bury; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Burton_Albion    29   60  +16      16.70    98.06    10.66    85.52     5.85    19.36    35.42    59.78    97.47    67.47P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall          29   56  +17      10.41    90.23     8.43    83.08     5.78    22.66    21.58    44.05    94.59    56.43P    0.00     0.00  
Wigan            30   55  +21       0.07    49.49     0.50    83.99     5.55    31.47    28.04    53.93    96.62    69.25P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham       30   55  +19       8.02    83.11    10.13    80.52     5.72    24.43    11.51    28.24    88.77    42.40P    0.00     0.00  
Coventry         30   49  +16       2.68    62.35     8.24    73.44     5.64    19.74     1.03     4.04    50.27    15.12P    0.00R    0.00  
Millwall         29   47   +9       1.71    58.34     0.58    73.55     5.95    13.76     1.18     4.52    49.43    16.01P    0.00R    0.00  
Southend         29   47   +6       7.45    81.87     6.19    69.90     5.77     5.52     0.28     1.12    24.03     5.48P    0.01R    0.00  
Peterborough     29   44  +13      -1.93    40.67     3.56    72.38     5.88    20.73     0.72     2.97    44.69    14.44P    0.00R    0.00  
Port_Vale        31   44   -1       3.79    68.14     2.29    64.36     5.34    -1.30     0.02     0.04     4.27     0.82P    0.25R    0.00  
Barnsley         29   42   +6      -1.86    41.02    -0.03    67.54     5.84     9.38     0.08     0.47    15.49     4.15P    0.07R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd        29   42   +4      -2.72    36.94    -3.44    68.35     5.87     8.54     0.11     0.61    18.46     5.13P    0.06R    0.00  
Bradford         28   41   -3       3.84    68.88    -1.58    65.51     5.92    -2.95     0.03     0.18     8.06     1.65P    0.28R    0.00  
Scunthorpe       28   38   -4       2.46    62.70     0.49    60.94     5.94    -6.83     0.00     0.01     1.86     0.35P    2.25R    0.01  
Rochdale         28   37   -2      -0.79    46.39    -0.81    62.33     6.06    -1.24     0.00     0.03     3.53     0.75P    1.28R    0.01  
Bury             28   37   -7       3.81    69.06     1.26    57.83     5.95   -13.12     0.00     0.01     0.63     0.10P    6.49R    0.06  
Doncaster        29   36   -4      -3.38    34.14    -3.48    58.75     5.82    -4.85     0.00     0.00     0.73     0.18P    4.12R    0.03  
Swindon          30   36   -5      -7.89    17.60    -9.00    59.65     5.68    -2.53     0.00     0.00     0.90     0.22P    2.96R    0.01  
Blackpool        29   33   -7      -3.62    33.20    -2.84    55.48     5.77    -8.01     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.03P   12.11R    0.23  
Chesterfield     29   30  -11      -7.83    16.67    -7.69    53.18     5.83   -11.37     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.01P   21.57R    0.66  
Shrewsbury       30   30  -15      -5.75    24.50    -6.83    48.16     5.51   -20.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    56.79R    3.71  
Fleetwood_Town   28   29   -3      -6.88    18.93     0.52    51.05     5.85    -6.79     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.01P   31.73R    1.20  
Crewe            29   26  -20      -2.55    37.84    -2.12    42.98     5.44   -30.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.59R   19.47  
Oldham           27   24  -13      -7.50    16.05    -4.92    44.70     5.89   -21.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    76.17R   11.76  
Colchester       29   22  -32      -5.61    23.63   -10.09    38.05     5.47   -44.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.26R   62.85  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 9 February 2016, Dag_&_Red 1 2 Wycombe; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Northampton          28   61  +20      15.75    97.65     9.61    89.63     6.12    25.87    62.44    93.08    99.68    94.54P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth             29   56  +17       8.85    86.36     6.22    83.92     5.77    23.71    19.37    74.29    97.78    80.88P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           28   52  +19       7.12    81.48     9.51    81.43     6.04    25.96    12.64    60.07    94.21    69.11P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield            31   48   +9       7.07    80.07    11.06    67.64     5.34     7.77     0.03     1.32    21.55     5.05P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       29   47  +10       5.32    74.30     6.85    72.60     5.87    13.41     0.58     8.97    54.88    19.69P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              29   46   +6       1.78    58.88    -0.65    71.72     5.84     9.58     0.36     7.14    47.88    17.70P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient        30   46   +5      -4.67    29.11    -9.40    73.41     5.72    13.26     0.84    11.46    60.66    27.74P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           28   45  +20       0.00    49.91    10.18    74.72     6.04    27.45     1.72    19.28    70.66    34.54P    0.00     0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   26   45  +12       8.07    84.97    10.38    73.83     6.60    13.98     1.59    15.98    61.06    24.76P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        30   44   +3       4.06    68.93     5.11    64.47     5.65     0.68     0.01     0.50     9.78     2.27P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon        28   42   +7       2.85    64.08     6.03    66.96     6.08     7.34     0.10     1.89    21.22     6.04P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle             26   42   +5       5.80    77.35     4.61    69.18     6.56     4.23     0.28     4.57    32.44     9.99P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter               28   40   -1       1.90    59.84    -0.21    64.01     6.06    -2.15     0.01     0.49     9.24     2.29P    0.00R    0.00  
Luton                30   38   +1      -4.65    28.99    -1.35    61.38     5.67     3.11     0.00     0.07     3.73     0.93P    0.02R    0.00  
Crawley_Town         30   37  -13      -2.69    38.07   -10.72    58.44     5.68   -13.83     0.00     0.01     1.02     0.27P    0.15R    0.02  
Morecambe            30   36   -3      -3.57    33.99    -0.06    57.71     5.72    -3.65     0.00     0.01     0.97     0.22P    0.21R    0.02  
Notts_County         27   36   -6      -3.34    34.21    -9.37    64.74     6.45    -2.06     0.03     0.86    12.94     3.93P    0.02R    0.00  
Barnet               28   33   -8       0.60    53.75     1.45    54.09     5.98   -13.61     0.00     0.01     0.28     0.07P    1.58R    0.31  
Stevenage            31   31  -14      -9.78    12.48   -10.99    49.73     5.43   -17.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    4.56R    0.94  
Newport_County       28   27  -11      -6.25    21.35    -3.18    48.34     5.94   -16.06     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00     9.12R    2.36  
Yeovil               29   24  -14     -12.43     6.14    -9.27    45.28     5.82   -16.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.30R    6.88  
Hartlepool           26   24  -19      -2.10    39.81    -4.65    43.68     5.97   -30.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   33.62R   13.97  
Dag_&_Red            29   20  -22     -11.96     5.74    -9.64    38.86     5.66   -29.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    65.42R   38.12  
York                 28   20  -23     -10.76     7.37   -11.51    39.12     5.74   -31.32     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    64.99R   37.38  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 9 February 2016, Altrincham 1 1 Wrexham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Cheltenham       31   69  +39       5.92    76.60     7.24    98.79     5.08    53.02    80.69   100.00    88.09P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     32   68  +24      11.49    91.70     4.81    91.70     5.20    30.94    13.30    99.71    34.72P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          30   58  +37      -2.22    37.94     7.99    87.52     5.37    48.30     5.88    97.94    41.62P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         32   53  +11      -2.99    35.97    -7.07    76.38     5.20    17.14     0.03    52.17    12.46P    0.00     0.00  
Eastleigh        30   50   +7       3.62    66.69    -0.63    74.45     5.59    10.82     0.02    36.60     5.45P    0.00     0.00  
Woking           32   49  +13      -3.01    36.24     0.57    69.30     5.19    14.42     0.00    10.64     1.89P    0.00     0.00  
Braintree_Town   28   49  +12       7.01    81.84     6.58    76.28     5.88    15.95     0.08    50.07     8.38P    0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic   30   49   +9       4.62    70.99     4.44    73.41     5.66    12.61     0.01    29.97     4.31P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City     33   48   +6       2.03    59.70     5.21    66.00     4.91     6.02     0.00     2.58     0.30P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead        30   48   -3       5.99    76.92    -4.01    68.55     5.53    -5.18     0.00     7.84     0.88P    0.00     0.00  
Macclesfield     32   47   +9      -1.29    43.95     2.51    68.64     5.15    12.63     0.00     7.99     1.29P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham          32   46  +10      -3.06    36.39     2.39    66.52     5.07    11.94     0.00     3.86     0.54P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot        31   41   -7       1.27    56.74    -2.72    60.93     5.33    -7.96     0.00     0.26     0.03P    0.09R    0.00  
Bromley          30   38   -3       1.38    57.16     5.76    59.60     5.81    -4.06     0.00     0.34     0.04P    0.42R    0.01  
Southport        31   38  -10       4.23    71.05     3.04    56.22     5.17   -13.42     0.00     0.02     0.00P    1.19R    0.04  
Barrow           32   38  -17       4.89    72.77     1.69    54.19     5.19   -21.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.18R    0.16  
Chester          31   35  -11       0.13    51.75     1.34    53.23     5.25   -14.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.43R    0.27  
Guiseley         30   34  -17       3.14    66.29    -1.04    49.13     5.23   -27.43     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.11R    1.86  
Altrincham       30   32  -20       2.79    65.34    -1.22    50.91     5.50   -24.62     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.81R    1.31  
Halifax          30   30  -19      -7.31    18.71   -11.89    48.38     5.48   -25.43     0.00     0.00     0.00    22.43R    3.43  
Boreham_Wood     30   28   -8      -5.39    25.53     2.33    46.34     5.37   -12.78     0.00     0.00     0.00    31.85R    5.33  
Welling          30   26  -16      -6.46    20.51    -3.37    42.41     5.21   -24.40     0.00     0.00     0.00    63.43R   20.26  
Kidderminster    30   20  -19     -14.42     2.69    -8.82    38.88     5.35   -23.64     0.00     0.00     0.00    82.62R   45.53  
Torquay          29   20  -27     -12.75     4.53   -15.13    42.74     5.80   -28.10     0.00     0.00     0.00    60.44R   21.80