Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Tuesday 9 February 2016 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 7 February 2016, Bournemouth 0 2 Arsenal; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Leicester        25   53  +20      15.44    98.31    15.29    73.13     4.89    23.50    29.82    56.42    78.48    93.06    99.57     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        25   48  +26       3.76    69.63    10.78    69.65     4.87    31.71    13.54    31.80    55.55    82.46    98.09     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          25   48  +17       1.88    59.57    -0.86    72.06     4.68    26.57    24.65    49.10    72.29    91.01    99.41     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         25   47  +21      -3.34    30.96    -5.04    72.62     4.71    33.40    30.79    57.53    78.45    93.34    99.54     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          25   41  +10      -1.81    39.91    -2.62    63.71     4.78    17.19     1.11     4.50    12.23    28.07    81.95     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham         25   39   +9       3.67    69.70     7.54    57.16     4.87     9.51     0.04     0.24     1.03     3.62    30.33     0.00R    0.00  
Southampton      25   37   +9      -2.45    36.83     1.40    57.46     4.92    12.88     0.03     0.24     1.10     4.03    34.12     0.00R    0.00  
Everton          25   35  +12      -4.28    28.03     4.57    56.28     4.95    17.32     0.01     0.13     0.62     2.91    28.50     0.00R    0.00  
Liverpool        25   35   -4      -1.54    41.84    -7.14    54.59     5.00    -1.42     0.00     0.03     0.19     1.00    14.14     0.02R    0.00  
Watford          25   33   +0       3.23    67.71     6.83    49.58     4.85    -1.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.08     2.39     0.19R    0.00  
Stoke            25   33   -7       2.15    62.39    -2.38    49.98     4.76    -8.21     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.07     2.36     0.18R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   25   32   -4       2.40    64.27     2.75    47.57     4.73    -7.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.98     0.62R    0.00  
Chelsea          25   30   -2     -12.40     4.23   -14.31    52.78     4.90     5.42     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.33     8.48     0.05R    0.00  
West_Brom        25   29   -9       0.13    51.75    -1.38    42.95     4.59   -15.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05     5.95R    0.11  
Bournemouth      25   28  -12       1.28    58.47     0.78    41.46     4.74   -19.32     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04    11.75R    0.34  
Swansea          25   27   -9      -4.00    29.13    -4.17    42.24     4.73   -12.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     8.30R    0.25  
Newcastle        25   24  -18      -0.71    47.01    -2.26    37.41     4.62   -25.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    40.07R    3.52  
Norwich          25   23  -20      -1.82    40.74    -3.83    35.56     4.59   -28.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    57.69R    6.35  
Sunderland       25   20  -19      -4.28    26.77    -2.26    32.62     4.59   -26.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    77.98R   16.57  
Aston_Villa      25   16  -20      -7.49    12.50    -3.71    27.05     4.28   -30.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.22R   72.86  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 9 February 2016, MK_Dons 1 1 Middlesbrough; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Middlesbrough   29   57  +23       6.06    78.57     6.84    86.56     5.57    31.85    33.95    63.78    99.17    75.73P    0.00     0.00  
Hull            29   56  +26       3.12    65.03     7.07    87.39     5.55    37.75    43.53    71.93    99.36    81.70P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley         30   55  +22       2.86    63.35     5.59    83.55     5.51    31.62    16.78    41.78    97.26    59.94P    0.00     0.00  
Brighton        29   53   +9      10.87    91.88     4.97    76.97     5.58    10.50     2.08     7.66    73.76    19.81P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           30   51  +14       1.18    55.54     0.80    78.42     5.49    22.19     3.02    11.43    84.47    32.49P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed       30   50  +12       6.93    80.49     8.71    73.43     5.45    14.42     0.38     1.95    53.08    11.50P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich         30   48   +2       4.62    71.66    -1.57    71.86     5.49     5.04     0.18     0.97    38.08     8.06P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham      30   47   +8       5.51    75.31     6.99    69.05     5.48     8.47     0.06     0.31    21.58     4.04P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff         30   45   +5       2.70    63.40     2.71    67.25     5.47     5.61     0.02     0.14    14.19     2.74P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   30   42   +6      -1.00    45.51     2.65    64.55     5.43     7.05     0.00     0.02     6.53     1.35P    0.00R    0.00  
Wolverhampton   30   40   -1      -3.64    32.85    -4.97    62.36     5.49    -0.23     0.00     0.01     2.97     0.66P    0.03R    0.00  
Brentford       30   40   -2      -1.74    41.90    -2.97    63.52     5.54     0.39     0.00     0.01     4.34     0.88P    0.02R    0.00  
QPR             30   39   +1      -4.81    28.12    -3.19    62.74     5.54     3.93     0.00     0.01     3.64     0.81P    0.02R    0.00  
Preston         30   39   -1      -0.03    50.47     0.95    59.82     5.38    -1.88     0.00     0.00     0.89     0.16P    0.04R    0.00  
Reading         30   36   +0      -3.05    35.66     2.54    56.83     5.40    -1.10     0.00     0.00     0.28     0.06P    0.39R    0.01  
Leeds_United    30   36   -5      -0.84    46.49     0.43    55.81     5.28    -7.55     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.02P    0.67R    0.02  
Huddersfield    30   32   -4      -4.93    27.20     2.53    50.59     5.43    -9.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.38R    0.50  
Blackburn       28   31   +0      -8.14    14.44    -1.79    56.01     5.79     0.87     0.00     0.00     0.31     0.05P    0.96R    0.04  
Fulham          29   29   -5      -7.66    16.99     0.60    50.59     5.69    -7.86     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    7.67R    0.79  
MK_Dons         30   28  -18      -5.21    25.86    -6.79    46.23     5.32   -23.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    25.76R    4.12  
Bristol_City    30   28  -22      -4.20    30.25    -8.90    45.22     5.34   -29.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    34.90R    6.28  
Rotherham       30   25  -19      -5.32    24.98    -1.93    40.07     5.10   -29.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    72.13R   25.61  
Bolton          30   24  -21      -8.85    12.40    -8.76    40.37     5.17   -29.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    69.93R   24.18  
Charlton        30   24  -30      -5.45    23.58   -12.49    39.01     5.06   -40.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    81.12R   38.46  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 7 February 2016, Barnsley 3 0 Bury; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Burton_Albion    29   60  +16      16.61    97.87    10.52    85.51     5.86    19.37    35.16    59.41    97.37    67.40P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall          29   56  +17      10.38    89.89     8.43    83.14     5.83    22.76    21.97    44.38    94.54    56.47P    0.00     0.00  
Wigan            30   55  +21       0.16    50.07     0.67    83.98     5.55    31.44    27.98    53.99    96.51    69.43P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham       30   55  +19       7.77    82.48     9.77    80.61     5.69    24.54    11.53    28.65    89.10    42.93P    0.00     0.00  
Coventry         30   49  +16       2.69    62.63     8.28    73.44     5.63    19.77     0.93     3.82    50.68    15.11P    0.00R    0.00  
Millwall         29   47   +9       1.60    57.50     0.44    73.59     5.90    13.84     1.27     4.46    49.98    15.92P    0.00     0.00  
Southend         29   47   +6       7.67    82.58     6.47    69.87     5.78     5.50     0.23     1.03    23.74     5.34P    0.01R    0.00  
Peterborough     29   44  +13      -1.86    40.80     3.73    72.38     5.83    20.69     0.70     2.87    44.25    14.09P    0.00R    0.00  
Port_Vale        31   44   -1       3.82    68.17     2.28    64.36     5.36    -1.32     0.01     0.04     4.31     0.79P    0.22R    0.00  
Barnsley         29   42   +6      -1.84    41.53     0.05    67.55     5.84     9.38     0.09     0.51    15.65     4.02P    0.05R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd        29   42   +4      -2.71    37.12    -3.47    68.33     5.85     8.52     0.09     0.60    18.11     5.22P    0.04R    0.00  
Bradford         28   41   -3       4.02    69.90    -1.31    65.43     5.90    -3.09     0.04     0.17     7.83     1.68P    0.28R    0.00  
Scunthorpe       28   38   -4       2.63    63.68     0.72    60.86     5.98    -6.95     0.00     0.01     1.92     0.34P    2.41R    0.01  
Rochdale         28   37   -2      -0.99    45.72    -1.09    62.45     6.10    -1.05     0.01     0.04     3.66     0.78P    1.29R    0.01  
Bury             28   37   -7       3.91    69.40     1.37    57.78     5.96   -13.18     0.00     0.00     0.58     0.09P    6.58R    0.06  
Doncaster        29   36   -4      -3.19    35.00    -3.19    58.65     5.86    -4.99     0.00     0.00     0.74     0.14P    4.29R    0.03  
Swindon          30   36   -5      -7.94    17.24    -9.05    59.70     5.65    -2.47     0.00     0.00     0.83     0.21P    2.89R    0.01  
Blackpool        29   33   -7      -3.42    34.12    -2.59    55.35     5.79    -8.18     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.02P   12.68R    0.26  
Chesterfield     29   30  -11      -7.96    16.23    -7.92    53.22     5.80   -11.34     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P   20.66R    0.64  
Shrewsbury       30   30  -15      -5.66    24.88    -6.76    48.10     5.49   -20.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    57.42R    3.65  
Fleetwood_Town   28   29   -3      -6.93    18.65     0.42    51.06     5.85    -6.74     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   31.60R    1.28  
Crewe            29   26  -20      -2.72    37.30    -2.35    43.01     5.45   -30.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.48R   19.88  
Oldham           27   24  -13      -7.56    15.78    -4.99    44.71     5.92   -21.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    76.04R   11.82  
Colchester       29   22  -32      -5.84    22.94   -10.45    38.13     5.47   -44.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.05R   62.34  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 9 February 2016, Dag_&_Red 1 2 Wycombe; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Northampton          28   61  +20      15.68    97.57     9.46    89.67     6.09    25.95    62.50    93.33    99.70    94.79P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth             29   56  +17       8.86    86.29     6.23    84.04     5.80    23.84    19.95    74.58    97.82    80.95P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           28   52  +19       7.16    81.74     9.55    81.37     6.04    25.88    12.13    59.74    94.18    68.80P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield            31   48   +9       7.11    80.03    11.16    67.59     5.32     7.68     0.04     1.23    21.46     5.07P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       29   47  +10       5.41    74.59     6.98    72.54     5.87    13.32     0.51     8.84    54.51    19.39P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              29   46   +6       1.57    57.68    -0.92    71.84     5.84     9.75     0.41     7.17    48.46    18.11P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient        30   46   +5      -4.61    29.29    -9.33    73.43     5.75    13.30     0.76    11.67    61.22    28.00P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           28   45  +20      -0.01    49.76    10.20    74.71     6.09    27.42     1.76    19.09    70.87    34.30P    0.00     0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   26   45  +12       8.02    84.80    10.30    73.92     6.57    14.12     1.57    16.34    61.95    25.34P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        30   44   +3       3.85    67.97     4.79    64.60     5.65     0.86     0.01     0.50    10.32     2.28P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon        28   42   +7       2.90    64.11     6.08    66.83     6.07     7.14     0.04     1.75    20.86     5.80P    0.00R    0.00  
Carlisle             26   42   +5       5.99    77.88     4.90    68.99     6.60     3.92     0.28     4.40    31.27     9.66P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter               28   40   -1       1.93    59.77    -0.17    64.02     6.07    -2.11     0.02     0.50     9.31     2.32P    0.01R    0.00  
Luton                30   38   +1      -4.64    29.26    -1.31    61.39     5.65     3.10     0.00     0.08     3.63     0.93P    0.02R    0.00  
Crawley_Town         30   37  -13      -2.53    38.75   -10.54    58.42     5.69   -13.88     0.00     0.01     1.01     0.22P    0.15R    0.02  
Morecambe            30   36   -3      -3.75    33.22    -0.36    57.81     5.73    -3.48     0.00     0.00     1.04     0.24P    0.17R    0.03  
Notts_County         27   36   -6      -3.00    36.03    -8.80    64.47     6.44    -2.43     0.02     0.76    12.11     3.75P    0.03R    0.00  
Barnet               28   33   -8       0.47    53.36     1.28    54.11     6.01   -13.55     0.00     0.00     0.27     0.04P    1.51R    0.29  
Stevenage            31   31  -14      -9.92    12.30   -11.23    49.79     5.47   -16.95     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    4.73R    0.96  
Newport_County       28   27  -11      -6.45    20.71    -3.48    48.45     5.92   -15.87     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     8.70R    2.10  
Yeovil               29   24  -14     -12.49     5.65    -9.34    45.30     5.80   -16.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.93R    6.44  
Hartlepool           26   24  -19      -2.06    39.92    -4.55    43.77     6.03   -30.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    33.57R   13.81  
Dag_&_Red            29   20  -22     -11.96     5.72    -9.65    38.82     5.65   -29.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    65.66R   38.38  
York                 28   20  -23     -10.61     7.60   -11.27    39.04     5.70   -31.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    65.52R   37.95  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 9 February 2016, Altrincham 1 1 Wrexham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Cheltenham       31   69  +39       5.91    76.73     7.20    98.83     5.10    53.12    80.66   100.00    88.00P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     32   68  +24      11.42    91.66     4.74    91.75     5.23    31.00    13.63    99.63    35.20P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          30   58  +37      -2.23    37.92     7.91    87.50     5.37    48.32     5.60    98.01    41.72P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         32   53  +11      -2.86    36.70    -6.87    76.35     5.19    17.07     0.02    52.37    12.29P    0.00     0.00  
Eastleigh        30   50   +7       3.67    66.83    -0.64    74.46     5.58    10.85     0.02    36.28     5.25P    0.00     0.00  
Woking           32   49  +13      -2.75    37.49     1.03    69.15     5.15    14.22     0.00    10.18     1.73P    0.00     0.00  
Braintree_Town   28   49  +12       7.10    81.98     6.75    76.17     5.86    15.76     0.07    49.46     8.24P    0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic   30   49   +9       4.67    71.32     4.47    73.41     5.62    12.66     0.01    30.59     4.14P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City     33   48   +6       2.23    60.54     5.50    65.91     4.88     5.85     0.00     2.34     0.27P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead        30   48   -3       5.78    76.14    -4.31    68.67     5.48    -5.01     0.00     8.30     1.01P    0.00     0.00  
Macclesfield     32   47   +9      -1.40    43.57     2.37    68.66     5.15    12.69     0.00     8.23     1.41P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham          32   46  +10      -3.22    35.70     2.16    66.59     5.10    12.02     0.00     3.99     0.67P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot        31   41   -7       1.39    57.24    -2.54    60.88     5.31    -8.02     0.00     0.25     0.03P    0.10R    0.00  
Bromley          30   38   -3       1.40    57.06     5.82    59.59     5.80    -4.10     0.00     0.35     0.02P    0.32R    0.01  
Southport        31   38  -10       4.17    70.56     2.95    56.29     5.17   -13.30     0.00     0.01     0.00P    1.10R    0.05  
Barrow           32   38  -17       4.81    72.42     1.38    54.27     5.17   -21.78     0.00     0.01     0.00     2.89R    0.14  
Chester          31   35  -11      -0.10    50.34     0.97    53.31     5.27   -14.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.18R    0.31  
Guiseley         30   34  -17       3.26    66.91    -0.91    49.05     5.21   -27.51     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.36R    1.74  
Altrincham       30   32  -20       2.59    64.28    -1.52    50.98     5.45   -24.48     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.29R    1.34  
Halifax          30   30  -19      -7.13    19.01   -11.63    48.30     5.45   -25.55     0.00     0.00     0.00    23.05R    3.52  
Boreham_Wood     30   28   -8      -5.35    25.67     2.43    46.24     5.36   -12.90     0.00     0.00     0.00    32.35R    5.21  
Welling          30   26  -16      -6.53    20.02    -3.44    42.47     5.17   -24.34     0.00     0.00     0.00    63.29R   19.99  
Kidderminster    30   20  -19     -14.37     2.78    -8.68    38.80     5.36   -23.73     0.00     0.00     0.00    82.88R   46.04  
Torquay          29   20  -27     -12.75     4.40   -15.13    42.75     5.79   -28.10     0.00     0.00     0.00    60.19R   21.64