Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Monday 8 February 2016 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 7 February 2016, Bournemouth 0 2 Arsenal; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Leicester        25   53  +20      15.47    98.22    15.36    73.07     4.89    23.42    29.52    56.06    78.40    93.03    99.52     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        25   48  +26       3.95    70.36    11.08    69.59     4.89    31.59    13.24    31.43    55.10    81.85    97.90     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          25   48  +17       1.81    59.42    -0.96    72.09     4.71    26.60    24.79    49.31    72.54    90.89    99.35     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         25   47  +21      -3.27    31.14    -4.96    72.64     4.74    33.42    31.17    57.82    78.84    93.24    99.54     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          25   41  +10      -1.80    39.95    -2.63    63.75     4.81    17.23     1.22     4.69    12.21    29.25    81.98     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham         25   39   +9       3.77    70.23     7.69    57.13     4.87     9.46     0.03     0.24     0.93     3.54    29.76     0.00R    0.00  
Southampton      25   37   +9      -2.50    36.48     1.31    57.51     4.89    12.96     0.03     0.26     1.07     4.07    34.53     0.00     0.00  
Everton          25   35  +12      -4.32    27.81     4.49    56.27     4.94    17.30     0.02     0.15     0.68     2.74    28.33     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        25   35   -4      -1.56    41.78    -7.16    54.60     5.01    -1.42     0.00     0.03     0.18     0.95    14.52     0.01R    0.00  
Watford          25   33   +0       3.18    67.75     6.83    49.60     4.84    -1.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05     2.40     0.21R    0.00  
Stoke            25   33   -7       2.20    62.78    -2.33    49.91     4.74    -8.33     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.06     2.22     0.20R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   25   32   -4       2.25    63.49     2.49    47.68     4.74    -6.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.89     0.59R    0.00  
Chelsea          25   30   -2     -12.61     3.99   -14.59    52.94     4.89     5.64     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.32     8.93     0.05R    0.00  
West_Brom        25   29   -9       0.19    51.91    -1.37    42.95     4.61   -15.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05     6.01R    0.08  
Bournemouth      25   28  -12       1.20    57.68     0.74    41.47     4.71   -19.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04    11.60R    0.35  
Swansea          25   27   -9      -3.83    30.09    -3.93    42.15     4.70   -12.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     8.34R    0.24  
Newcastle        25   24  -18      -0.64    47.53    -2.12    37.34     4.62   -25.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    40.67R    3.62  
Norwich          25   23  -20      -1.75    41.23    -3.69    35.57     4.61   -28.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    57.58R    6.39  
Sunderland       25   20  -19      -4.38    26.19    -2.41    32.63     4.60   -26.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    77.87R   16.61  
Aston_Villa      25   16  -20      -7.55    12.45    -3.85    27.08     4.31   -30.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    96.87R   72.69  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 6 February 2016, Birmingham 1 2 Sheff_Wed; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Hull            29   56  +26       2.91    63.99     6.77    87.53     5.52    37.96    41.37    71.61    99.39    81.77P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough   28   56  +23       6.59    81.14     7.13    87.44     5.75    32.54    38.40    67.71    99.26    78.49P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley         30   55  +22       2.74    63.07     5.46    83.62     5.48    31.72    15.06    39.94    97.34    59.51P    0.00     0.00  
Brighton        29   53   +9      10.89    91.94     4.94    76.96     5.56    10.47     1.86     7.04    74.09    19.73P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           30   51  +14       1.33    56.29     1.02    78.33     5.51    22.07     2.77    10.41    83.97    31.16P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed       30   50  +12       7.02    81.06     8.81    73.37     5.44    14.37     0.32     1.80    53.07    11.10P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich         30   48   +2       4.57    71.45    -1.65    71.85     5.49     5.06     0.15     0.99    38.05     8.00P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham      30   47   +8       5.71    76.32     7.32    68.86     5.48     8.25     0.04     0.30    20.89     3.67P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff         30   45   +5       2.69    63.41     2.67    67.28     5.47     5.64     0.01     0.13    14.52     2.65P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   30   42   +6      -1.02    45.20     2.62    64.61     5.43     7.16     0.01     0.04     6.73     1.40P    0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton   30   40   -1      -3.60    33.10    -4.99    62.36     5.45    -0.25     0.00     0.00     2.89     0.58P    0.01R    0.00  
Brentford       30   40   -2      -1.43    43.47    -2.52    63.31     5.59     0.05     0.00     0.01     4.29     0.78P    0.01R    0.00  
QPR             30   39   +1      -5.02    27.18    -3.51    62.84     5.58     4.09     0.00     0.01     3.88     0.86P    0.02R    0.00  
Preston         30   39   -1       0.08    51.01     1.10    59.78     5.39    -1.96     0.00     0.00     0.96     0.18P    0.07R    0.00  
Reading         30   36   +0      -3.24    34.71     2.29    56.87     5.41    -1.04     0.00     0.00     0.24     0.05P    0.39R    0.01  
Leeds_United    30   36   -5      -0.65    47.49     0.66    55.74     5.29    -7.65     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.02P    0.73R    0.02  
Huddersfield    30   32   -4      -5.05    26.71     2.33    50.67     5.39    -8.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.23R    0.46  
Blackburn       28   31   +0      -8.09    14.69    -1.71    56.01     5.79     0.86     0.00     0.00     0.31     0.07P    1.02R    0.04  
Fulham          29   29   -5      -7.60    17.26     0.65    50.65     5.68    -7.79     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00     7.37R    0.72  
Bristol_City    30   28  -22      -4.17    30.36    -8.80    45.24     5.32   -29.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    34.20R    6.20  
MK_Dons         29   27  -18      -5.07    26.33    -7.04    45.97     5.53   -24.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    28.41R    5.13  
Rotherham       30   25  -19      -5.31    24.97    -1.91    40.09     5.09   -29.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.87R   25.27  
Bolton          30   24  -21      -9.04    11.82    -9.02    40.49     5.21   -29.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    68.81R   23.78  
Charlton        30   24  -30      -5.55    23.36   -12.62    39.03     5.06   -40.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    80.87R   38.37  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 7 February 2016, Barnsley 3 0 Bury; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Burton_Albion    29   60  +16      16.66    98.00    10.62    85.54     5.85    19.39    35.37    59.89    97.40    67.63P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall          29   56  +17      10.45    90.25     8.47    83.10     5.76    22.73    21.87    44.04    94.73    56.36P    0.00     0.00  
Wigan            30   55  +21       0.16    50.19     0.66    83.95     5.54    31.40    27.60    53.63    96.68    69.15P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham       30   55  +19       7.79    82.25     9.73    80.59     5.73    24.53    11.77    28.88    88.68    42.67P    0.00     0.00  
Coventry         30   49  +16       2.63    62.33     8.16    73.47     5.61    19.79     0.97     3.88    50.91    15.09P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         29   47   +9       1.58    57.49     0.44    73.62     5.95    13.87     1.28     4.51    49.68    16.26P    0.00R    0.00  
Southend         29   47   +6       7.48    82.03     6.18    69.98     5.80     5.62     0.26     1.08    24.62     5.54P    0.01R    0.00  
Peterborough     29   44  +13      -1.87    40.99     3.68    72.26     5.85    20.57     0.63     2.78    43.69    13.84P    0.00R    0.00  
Port_Vale        31   44   -1       3.85    68.20     2.37    64.41     5.33    -1.21     0.00     0.04     4.46     0.89P    0.20R    0.00  
Barnsley         29   42   +6      -1.77    41.66     0.13    67.50     5.86     9.31     0.09     0.46    15.32     4.13P    0.07R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd        29   42   +4      -2.71    37.08    -3.40    68.29     5.88     8.41     0.11     0.57    18.28     5.06P    0.05R    0.00  
Bradford         28   41   -3       4.07    70.30    -1.25    65.38     5.93    -3.15     0.04     0.18     7.65     1.69P    0.36R    0.00  
Scunthorpe       28   38   -4       2.55    63.35     0.65    60.83     5.94    -6.98     0.00     0.03     1.78     0.34P    2.37R    0.01  
Rochdale         28   37   -2      -0.87    46.17    -0.93    62.37     6.09    -1.17     0.01     0.04     3.64     0.82P    1.34R    0.01  
Bury             28   37   -7       3.95    69.48     1.39    57.76     5.91   -13.20     0.00     0.00     0.57     0.08P    6.42R    0.07  
Doncaster        29   36   -4      -3.22    34.75    -3.24    58.64     5.82    -4.96     0.00     0.00     0.69     0.16P    4.19R    0.03  
Swindon          30   36   -5      -8.04    16.83    -9.24    59.77     5.70    -2.36     0.00     0.00     0.99     0.26P    2.76R    0.01  
Blackpool        29   33   -7      -3.69    33.08    -2.97    55.50     5.76    -7.99     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.02P   12.05R    0.27  
Chesterfield     29   30  -11      -8.09    15.92    -8.11    53.35     5.83   -11.11     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P   20.53R    0.62  
Shrewsbury       30   30  -15      -5.73    24.46    -6.86    48.17     5.49   -20.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    57.05R    3.55  
Fleetwood_Town   28   29   -3      -6.83    19.18     0.55    51.00     5.91    -6.85     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P   32.49R    1.35  
Crewe            29   26  -20      -2.51    38.03    -2.02    42.98     5.45   -30.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.44R   19.56  
Oldham           27   24  -13      -7.46    16.23    -4.76    44.63     5.91   -21.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    76.55R   11.93  
Colchester       29   22  -32      -5.70    22.61   -10.28    38.12     5.44   -44.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.10R   62.59  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 6 February 2016, Cambridge_Utd 1 0 Dag_&_Red; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Northampton          28   61  +20      15.75    97.62     9.64    89.63     6.14    25.89    60.12    92.90    99.71    94.49P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth             29   56  +17       8.80    86.19     6.17    84.04     5.78    23.86    19.36    74.69    97.80    81.00P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           27   51  +19       7.68    83.66     9.78    82.22     6.27    26.52    15.34    64.20    95.04    72.59P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       29   47  +10       5.12    73.38     6.61    72.68     5.89    13.56     0.58     8.70    56.52    19.95P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield            30   47   +9       7.23    81.14    10.81    67.53     5.53     7.14     0.07     1.52    22.28     5.34P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient        30   46   +5      -4.65    29.33    -9.37    73.44     5.71    13.29     0.69    10.98    61.76    27.75P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           28   45  +20       0.08    50.34    10.27    74.63     6.06    27.30     1.59    18.13    70.76    33.74P    0.00     0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   26   45  +12       8.11    85.27    10.42    73.87     6.59    14.06     1.53    15.60    62.30    24.63P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        30   44   +3       3.95    68.53     4.92    64.54     5.62     0.77     0.02     0.47    10.07     2.24P    0.00R    0.00  
Wycombe              28   43   +5       0.50    52.82    -1.16    70.47     6.04     9.12     0.30     5.07    40.65    14.51P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon        28   42   +7       2.95    64.62     6.14    66.87     6.08     7.24     0.07     1.84    21.24     5.92P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle             26   42   +5       5.76    76.98     4.50    69.21     6.57     4.27     0.29     4.53    33.48    10.12P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter               28   40   -1       2.02    60.29    -0.06    63.94     6.10    -2.22     0.01     0.51     9.65     2.32P    0.01R    0.00  
Luton                30   38   +1      -4.65    29.16    -1.32    61.42     5.65     3.15     0.00     0.10     3.93     1.01P    0.02R    0.00  
Crawley_Town         30   37  -13      -2.88    37.43   -10.99    58.53     5.73   -13.71     0.00     0.02     1.14     0.29P    0.16R    0.02  
Morecambe            30   36   -3      -3.62    33.86    -0.09    57.66     5.69    -3.70     0.00     0.01     0.95     0.20P    0.24R    0.04  
Notts_County         27   36   -6      -3.17    34.84    -9.07    64.57     6.42    -2.31     0.03     0.74    12.44     3.85P    0.02R    0.00  
Barnet               28   33   -8       0.54    53.68     1.37    54.05     6.03   -13.65     0.00     0.00     0.25     0.05P    1.80R    0.42  
Stevenage            30   28  -15     -10.96     9.30   -11.37    48.29     5.63   -17.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P    9.61R    2.44  
Newport_County       28   27  -11      -6.31    21.23    -3.28    48.42     5.93   -15.93     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    9.88R    2.59  
Yeovil               29   24  -14     -12.38     6.02    -9.20    45.24     5.84   -16.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    22.11R    7.57  
Hartlepool           25   24  -18      -1.02    45.67    -4.08    44.87     6.19   -30.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    29.07R   11.78  
Dag_&_Red            28   20  -21     -11.11     7.07    -9.44    39.89     5.81   -28.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    60.29R   33.83  
York                 28   20  -23     -10.52     7.91   -11.20    39.05     5.77   -31.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    66.78R   41.30  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 6 February 2016, Barrow 1 2 Cheltenham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Cheltenham       31   69  +39       5.94    76.88     7.29    98.75     5.09    52.98    81.20   100.00    88.24P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     32   68  +24      11.48    91.62     4.79    91.75     5.21    31.00    13.87    99.58    35.41P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          29   55  +36      -3.27    32.72     7.79    86.50     5.58    48.31     4.77    96.20    40.80P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         32   53  +11      -2.70    37.31    -6.61    76.29     5.18    16.96     0.02    48.64    11.35P    0.00     0.00  
Eastleigh        29   50   +8       4.87    72.36     0.13    76.33     5.81    12.63     0.08    47.12     7.36P    0.00     0.00  
Woking           32   49  +13      -2.77    37.54     0.96    69.18     5.19    14.21     0.00     9.30     1.56P    0.00     0.00  
Braintree_Town   28   49  +12       7.04    81.98     6.65    76.21     5.88    15.85     0.06    47.36     7.74P    0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic   30   49   +9       4.50    70.65     4.19    73.53     5.65    12.82     0.01    28.97     4.34P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City     33   48   +6       2.05    59.62     5.26    65.96     4.91     6.01     0.00     2.23     0.24P    0.00R    0.00  
Gateshead        30   48   -3       5.89    76.31    -4.13    68.58     5.52    -5.16     0.00     7.40     0.86P    0.00     0.00  
Macclesfield     32   47   +9      -1.54    42.91     2.15    68.74     5.14    12.76     0.00     7.35     1.17P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham          31   45  +10      -2.72    37.42     2.32    67.42     5.27    12.71     0.00     5.13     0.86P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot        31   41   -7       1.39    57.35    -2.56    60.90     5.32    -7.96     0.00     0.24     0.02P    0.08R    0.00  
Bromley          29   38   -2       2.27    61.32     5.95    60.37     6.01    -4.13     0.00     0.46     0.05P    0.28R    0.01  
Southport        31   38  -10       4.29    71.53     3.04    56.20     5.17   -13.45     0.00     0.01     0.00     1.04R    0.02  
Barrow           32   38  -17       4.97    73.24     1.72    54.11     5.14   -22.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.82R    0.10  
Chester          31   35  -11       0.06    51.38     1.21    53.26     5.25   -14.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.02R    0.20  
Guiseley         30   34  -17       3.28    67.00    -0.85    49.05     5.21   -27.53     0.00     0.00     0.00    17.39R    1.27  
Altrincham       29   31  -20       2.84    66.33    -1.60    50.91     5.66   -25.19     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.78R    1.10  
Halifax          30   30  -19      -7.19    19.15   -11.67    48.33     5.45   -25.53     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.63R    2.64  
Boreham_Wood     30   28   -8      -5.39    25.40     2.32    46.30     5.34   -12.84     0.00     0.00     0.00    30.58R    3.92  
Welling          30   26  -16      -6.53    20.08    -3.42    42.42     5.15   -24.37     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.52R   15.78  
Torquay          29   20  -27     -12.79     4.53   -15.16    42.77     5.77   -28.05     0.00     0.00     0.00    59.05R   17.40  
Kidderminster    29   17  -20     -16.01     1.34    -9.81    36.86     5.58   -25.19     0.00     0.00     0.00    88.82R   57.55