Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 5 February 2016 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 3 February 2016, Everton 3 0 Newcastle; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Leicester        24   50  +18      14.19    97.59    13.73    70.36     5.06    19.55    14.25    37.40    62.94    83.66    97.90     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         24   47  +23      -2.03    37.14    -3.29    75.13     4.89    37.27    56.15    79.39    91.40    97.42    99.85     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        24   45  +25       2.91    65.48    10.86    68.54     5.08    31.55    10.07    29.21    53.36    77.23    96.34     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          24   45  +15       1.09    55.64    -1.63    70.96     4.92    25.41    17.91    46.01    69.37    87.58    98.61     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          24   40  +10      -1.50    41.48    -2.72    63.92     5.00    16.98     1.49     6.80    17.70    36.25    81.68     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham         24   39  +10       4.58    74.06     7.95    58.25     5.12    10.15     0.09     0.76     2.77     8.00    39.23     0.00     0.00  
Southampton      24   34   +8      -3.49    31.05     1.23    56.09     5.06    12.27     0.02     0.20     1.02     3.61    25.83     0.00R    0.00  
Liverpool        24   34   -4      -0.68    46.49    -6.40    55.86     5.16    -0.05     0.02     0.12     0.63     2.58    20.76     0.01R    0.00  
Watford          24   33   +1       3.71    70.33     6.58    50.48     5.07    -1.68     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.29     4.07     0.17R    0.00  
Stoke            24   33   -4       2.73    65.80    -0.56    51.62     4.97    -4.82     0.00     0.01     0.06     0.33     5.29     0.08R    0.00  
Everton          24   32   +9      -5.09    23.80     2.87    54.35     5.20    13.85     0.00     0.06     0.52     2.12    17.62     0.03R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   24   31   -4       2.66    65.85     2.67    47.70     4.93    -7.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     1.19     0.90R    0.00  
Chelsea          24   29   -2     -12.12     4.17   -14.47    53.36     5.10     5.73     0.00     0.02     0.17     0.89    11.29     0.06R    0.00  
West_Brom        24   29   -8       1.17    57.63    -0.83    44.39     4.87   -13.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.18     4.37R    0.03  
Bournemouth      24   28  -10       1.63    60.21     1.29    42.44     4.92   -18.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.09     9.17R    0.13  
Swansea          24   26   -9      -3.53    31.18    -4.00    42.76     4.98   -12.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.09     7.93R    0.13  
Norwich          24   23  -18      -1.19    44.30    -2.98    37.35     4.89   -26.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    41.49R    2.70  
Newcastle        24   21  -19      -1.99    39.46    -2.44    35.54     4.84   -26.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    57.23R    5.17  
Sunderland       24   19  -19      -4.38    25.48    -3.07    32.23     4.78   -28.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    80.30R   12.75  
Aston_Villa      24   13  -22      -8.60     8.11    -4.79    25.25     4.52   -33.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.26R   79.09  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Friday 5 February 2016, Brighton 3 0 Brentford; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Hull            28   56  +27       3.96    69.49     7.35    88.89     5.69    39.05    46.69    77.53    99.57    85.58P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough   27   55  +23       7.28    84.43     7.46    88.41     5.96    33.36    39.83    73.21    99.30    81.99P    0.00     0.00  
Brighton        29   53   +9      10.77    91.59     4.82    77.07     5.59    10.61     1.42     6.44    73.21    18.86P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley         29   52  +21       1.73    58.24     5.30    81.71     5.71    30.35     8.30    26.46    93.65    48.83P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           29   50  +14       1.45    57.09     0.58    79.28     5.72    22.93     3.17    12.83    85.91    34.33P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich         29   48   +3       5.51    75.28    -1.24    73.15     5.71     5.96     0.28     1.66    46.08    10.15P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed       29   47  +11       5.51    75.75     8.01    71.42     5.66    12.94     0.18     0.93    37.31     7.76P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham      29   47   +9       6.64    80.19     7.67    70.66     5.70     9.84     0.11     0.66    30.93     5.68P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff         29   44   +5       3.20    65.70     2.97    68.30     5.70     6.53     0.02     0.22    18.66     3.63P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       30   40   -2      -1.55    42.76    -2.61    63.37     5.56     0.13     0.00     0.01     3.99     0.78P    0.01R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   29   39   +5      -2.21    39.08     2.25    62.79     5.65     5.82     0.00     0.02     3.89     0.87P    0.01R    0.00  
Wolverhampton   29   39   -1      -3.37    33.86    -5.14    62.66     5.69    -0.37     0.00     0.01     3.47     0.70P    0.03R    0.00  
QPR             29   36   +0      -6.13    22.43    -3.70    61.30     5.81     3.22     0.00     0.01     2.49     0.52P    0.06R    0.00  
Preston         29   36   -2      -0.92    45.86     0.96    58.25     5.58    -2.78     0.00     0.00     0.55     0.09P    0.21R    0.01  
Leeds_United    29   36   -4       0.36    52.55     1.29    57.28     5.52    -6.42     0.00     0.00     0.30     0.05P    0.38R    0.01  
Reading         29   35   +0      -2.79    36.30     2.53    57.32     5.65    -1.00     0.00     0.00     0.37     0.08P    0.38R    0.02  
Huddersfield    29   32   -3      -4.14    30.33     2.69    51.86     5.62    -8.11     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.01P    4.44R    0.30  
Blackburn       27   30   +0      -7.99    14.43    -1.99    55.65     5.95    -0.08     0.00     0.00     0.30     0.07P    1.30R    0.08  
Fulham          28   28   -5      -7.45    17.17     0.39    50.79     5.91    -8.18     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.01P    7.59R    0.78  
MK_Dons         28   26  -18      -5.04    26.02    -7.29    45.83     5.73   -25.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    29.74R    5.57  
Rotherham       29   25  -18      -4.50    27.93    -1.76    41.33     5.31   -29.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.11R   19.60  
Bristol_City    29   25  -23      -5.58    23.89    -9.32    43.23     5.55   -30.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    48.78R   13.23  
Charlton        29   24  -29      -4.60    27.39   -12.12    40.80     5.32   -38.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    68.79R   24.97  
Bolton          29   21  -22     -10.06     8.23    -9.09    38.95     5.38   -29.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    76.17R   35.43  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 2 February 2016, Doncaster 1 2 Walsall; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Burton_Albion    28   57  +14      15.89    97.61     9.88    83.71     6.04    17.13    24.54    48.20    95.12    57.65P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall          28   56  +20      10.94    92.02    10.20    85.44     5.94    27.12    37.87    62.31    97.72    71.41P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham       29   54  +19       8.28    84.18    10.00    81.38     5.96    25.22    15.95    35.42    91.26    48.04P    0.00     0.00  
Wigan            29   52  +19      -0.76    45.73    -0.36    82.07     5.81    29.06    18.44    40.81    93.43    59.87P    0.00     0.00  
Coventry         29   48  +16       3.00    64.26     8.16    73.90     5.85    19.87     1.47     5.54    56.25    17.60P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         28   44   +6       1.03    55.01    -0.87    70.84     6.17     9.14     0.59     2.28    34.10    10.06P    0.03R    0.00  
Southend         28   44   +3       7.28    82.00     5.36    68.15     5.98     2.44     0.18     0.70    18.14     3.96P    0.06R    0.00  
Port_Vale        30   43   -1       4.08    69.36     2.15    64.66     5.56    -1.40     0.01     0.08     6.25     1.23P    0.24R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd        28   42   +6      -2.19    39.37    -2.70    70.10     6.04    11.08     0.35     1.65    30.08     9.22P    0.03R    0.00  
Peterborough     28   41  +12      -3.29    34.10     3.00    70.76     6.09    19.73     0.42     1.99    36.37    11.24P    0.02R    0.00  
Bradford         27   41   -1       4.51    72.48    -0.55    67.00     6.10    -0.70     0.10     0.45    13.91     3.20P    0.14R    0.00  
Barnsley         28   39   +3      -2.29    39.00    -1.09    65.87     6.12     6.27     0.07     0.33    11.74     3.08P    0.30R    0.00  
Scunthorpe       28   38   -4       2.57    63.15     0.69    60.95     6.00    -6.81     0.00     0.03     2.27     0.44P    2.43R    0.01  
Rochdale         27   37   +0      -0.14    49.78     0.03    64.76     6.31     2.39     0.02     0.18     9.18     2.07P    0.74R    0.01  
Bury             27   37   -4       4.04    70.14     2.43    59.25     6.23   -10.10     0.00     0.02     1.62     0.32P    4.91R    0.03  
Doncaster        29   36   -4      -3.18    35.03    -3.21    58.73     5.84    -4.88     0.00     0.00     0.92     0.19P    4.46R    0.04  
Swindon          29   35   -5      -7.66    17.53    -9.26    59.57     5.89    -3.31     0.00     0.00     1.23     0.32P    3.63R    0.02  
Blackpool        29   33   -7      -3.68    32.80    -2.98    55.55     5.77    -7.95     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.03P   12.23R    0.20  
Chesterfield     28   30  -10      -7.23    18.52    -7.85    54.74     6.10   -10.12     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.04P   16.24R    0.41  
Shrewsbury       29   29  -15      -5.33    25.76    -6.60    48.01     5.69   -21.64     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.01P   59.65R    3.96  
Fleetwood_Town   27   28   -3      -6.32    20.69     0.90    51.67     6.09    -6.47     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.02P   29.92R    1.26  
Oldham           27   24  -13      -7.54    15.86    -4.94    44.80     5.95   -20.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    76.50R   11.33  
Crewe            28   23  -22      -3.77    31.49    -3.31    40.61     5.65   -33.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    93.23R   35.04  
Colchester       28   22  -29      -5.42    24.14    -9.10    39.40     5.75   -41.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    95.22R   47.68  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 2 February 2016, Luton 1 1 Yeovil; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Northampton          27   58  +18      14.93    97.19     8.80    88.42     6.36    24.51    52.99    88.37    99.39    90.83P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth             29   56  +17       8.75    86.27     6.09    83.93     5.78    23.69    21.10    71.41    97.95    78.74P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           27   51  +19       7.67    83.74     9.75    82.22     6.26    26.57    16.72    61.45    95.36    70.55P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       29   47  +10       5.32    74.19     6.89    72.59     5.90    13.35     0.59     8.31    56.05    19.25P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           27   45  +21       1.18    55.87    10.85    76.26     6.27    28.67     3.47    25.42    78.63    40.93P    0.00     0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   25   45  +14       8.83    87.71    11.41    75.81     6.78    16.91     3.54    22.86    72.79    33.04P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield            29   44   +8       5.97    77.22    10.34    65.78     5.69     5.94     0.03     0.79    15.46     3.55P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              27   43   +6       1.66    58.55    -0.45    72.19     6.26    10.62     0.77     8.67    52.40    20.22P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient        29   43   +4      -5.99    23.57   -10.00    71.68     6.01    12.12     0.52     7.03    50.58    21.47P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon        28   42   +7       2.89    64.44     6.05    66.90     6.04     7.26     0.06     1.58    21.65     5.77P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        29   41   +2       2.75    63.29     4.72    62.98     5.86    -0.18     0.01     0.26     7.36     1.60P    0.02R    0.00  
Exeter               28   40   -1       1.89    59.57    -0.23    64.10     6.10    -1.99     0.01     0.46    10.30     2.46P    0.02R    0.00  
Carlisle             25   39   +3       4.93    74.14     3.85    66.90     6.85     1.05     0.15     2.51    23.13     6.38P    0.01R    0.00  
Morecambe            29   36   -2      -2.67    37.67     0.25    59.29     5.95    -2.31     0.00     0.04     2.43     0.54P    0.21R    0.03  
Notts_County         27   36   -6      -3.32    34.33    -9.33    64.68     6.44    -2.15     0.03     0.81    13.08     3.87P    0.03R    0.00  
Luton                29   35   +0      -5.96    23.82    -1.80    59.40     5.86     1.62     0.00     0.03     2.47     0.60P    0.16R    0.03  
Crawley_Town         29   34  -14      -3.86    32.57   -11.05    56.56     5.92   -15.28     0.00     0.00     0.65     0.13P    0.92R    0.18  
Barnet               28   33   -8       0.67    54.26     1.60    53.89     6.01   -13.88     0.00     0.00     0.28     0.06P    2.41R    0.52  
Stevenage            29   28  -14     -10.06    10.68   -11.01    49.87     5.83   -16.46     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    7.90R    2.21  
Newport_County       28   27  -11      -6.17    21.59    -3.05    48.42     5.89   -15.93     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.01P   11.98R    3.43  
Yeovil               29   24  -14     -12.66     5.76    -9.60    45.42     5.85   -16.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.88R    9.26  
Hartlepool           25   24  -18      -1.27    44.11    -4.44    45.01     6.23   -29.88     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    32.67R   14.30  
Dag_&_Red            27   20  -20     -10.17     8.51    -8.99    41.19     6.03   -27.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    55.55R   31.12  
York                 27   20  -21     -10.10     8.65   -10.64    40.15     5.96   -29.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    63.25R   38.91  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 2 February 2016, Barrow 0 0 Gateshead; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Forest_Green     31   67  +24      11.84    92.82     4.84    92.18     5.44    31.09    18.54    99.51    38.68P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham       30   66  +38       4.98    73.43     7.25    98.02     5.25    53.44    75.77    99.99    84.76P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          29   55  +36      -3.39    32.09     7.60    86.51     5.60    48.30     5.27    95.94    41.02P    0.00     0.00  
Eastleigh        28   50  +11       5.12    73.57     1.30    78.48     5.99    16.92     0.32    61.19     9.88P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         31   50  +10      -3.74    32.78    -6.79    75.31     5.39    16.92     0.03    40.08     9.34P    0.00     0.00  
Woking           32   49  +13      -2.88    36.89     0.80    69.16     5.16    14.18     0.00     8.73     1.57P    0.00     0.00  
Braintree_Town   28   49  +12       6.95    81.43     6.58    76.18     5.88    15.79     0.07    45.31     7.56P    0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic   30   49   +9       4.66    71.31     4.42    73.54     5.62    12.83     0.00    27.83     3.90P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead        30   48   -3       5.91    76.18    -4.08    68.49     5.53    -5.28     0.00     6.75     0.79P    0.00     0.00  
Macclesfield     32   47   +9      -1.35    43.83     2.41    68.70     5.14    12.72     0.00     6.92     1.24P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City     32   45   +3       1.40    56.90     3.68    63.96     5.15     2.41     0.00     1.02     0.14P    0.00R    0.00  
Wrexham          30   44  +10      -2.34    38.85     2.33    67.71     5.51    12.54     0.00     6.04     1.03P    0.00R    0.00  
Aldershot        31   41   -7       1.37    57.24    -2.55    60.93     5.28    -7.93     0.00     0.19     0.02P    0.08R    0.00  
Bromley          29   38   -2       2.25    61.26     5.92    60.44     5.97    -3.95     0.00     0.45     0.06P    0.33R    0.01  
Southport        30   38   -9       5.20    75.12     3.48    56.92     5.32   -13.45     0.00     0.03     0.01P    0.88R    0.01  
Barrow           31   38  -16       5.58    75.47     1.48    54.63     5.30   -22.51     0.00     0.01     0.00     2.78R    0.06  
Chester          31   35  -11      -0.00    50.65     1.07    53.30     5.27   -14.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.49R    0.13  
Guiseley         30   34  -17       3.31    67.11    -0.70    48.88     5.16   -27.83     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.13R    0.91  
Halifax          30   30  -19      -7.12    19.15   -11.51    48.24     5.45   -25.66     0.00     0.00     0.00    23.25R    1.91  
Altrincham       28   30  -20       3.19    67.94    -1.63    51.16     5.88   -25.35     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.97R    0.84  
Boreham_Wood     29   28   -6      -4.88    27.02     3.16    48.32     5.57    -9.90     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.78R    1.64  
Welling          29   25  -16      -5.99    21.43    -3.19    42.93     5.43   -24.18     0.00     0.00     0.00    59.97R   11.01  
Torquay          29   20  -27     -12.75     4.48   -15.13    42.67     5.83   -28.21     0.00     0.00     0.00    61.11R   13.71  
Kidderminster    28   14  -22     -16.90     0.69   -10.71    34.59     5.74   -28.12     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.21R   69.78