Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 4 February 2016 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 3 February 2016, Everton 3 0 Newcastle; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Leicester        24   50  +18      14.26    97.64    13.84    70.32     5.07    19.49    13.89    37.13    62.56    83.36    97.86     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         24   47  +23      -2.03    36.70    -3.26    75.09     4.87    37.23    56.25    79.38    91.33    97.38    99.85     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        24   45  +25       2.89    65.52    10.76    68.55     5.10    31.54    10.35    29.23    53.20    77.11    96.21     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          24   45  +15       1.06    55.43    -1.68    70.97     4.88    25.44    17.84    46.13    69.61    87.62    98.65     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          24   40  +10      -1.64    40.62    -2.93    64.02     5.01    17.13     1.55     7.01    18.01    36.70    82.12     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham         24   39  +10       4.50    73.85     7.82    58.32     5.06    10.25     0.09     0.70     2.82     7.96    39.77     0.00     0.00  
Southampton      24   34   +8      -3.57    30.43     1.09    56.09     5.10    12.27     0.01     0.20     1.01     3.61    25.54     0.01R    0.00  
Liverpool        24   34   -4      -0.78    46.02    -6.53    55.88     5.21    -0.00     0.01     0.11     0.66     2.63    21.17     0.01R    0.00  
Watford          24   33   +1       3.85    70.84     6.84    50.35     5.03    -1.84     0.00     0.01     0.05     0.24     3.54     0.18R    0.00  
Stoke            24   33   -4       2.69    65.64    -0.63    51.62     4.97    -4.81     0.00     0.01     0.06     0.31     5.40     0.11R    0.00  
Everton          24   32   +9      -5.02    24.36     2.98    54.31     5.13    13.76     0.00     0.06     0.49     2.02    16.92     0.02R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   24   31   -4       2.64    65.87     2.64    47.72     4.93    -7.30     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.05     1.17     0.86R    0.00  
Chelsea          24   29   -2     -12.12     4.27   -14.46    53.35     5.15     5.72     0.00     0.02     0.18     0.99    11.48     0.06R    0.00  
West_Brom        24   29   -8       1.14    57.34    -0.87    44.42     4.81   -13.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.15     4.18R    0.03  
Bournemouth      24   28  -10       1.61    60.17     1.28    42.50     4.95   -17.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.08     9.16R    0.13  
Swansea          24   26   -9      -3.46    31.55    -3.91    42.75     4.96   -12.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.08     7.79R    0.13  
Norwich          24   23  -18      -1.07    45.03    -2.75    37.29     4.86   -26.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    41.70R    2.48  
Newcastle        24   21  -19      -2.09    38.87    -2.63    35.59     4.85   -26.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    57.26R    5.11  
Sunderland       24   19  -19      -4.32    26.01    -2.88    32.20     4.76   -28.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    80.28R   12.88  
Aston_Villa      24   13  -22      -8.55     8.29    -4.70    25.20     4.50   -33.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.39R   79.24  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 2 February 2016, Derby 0 0 Preston; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Hull            28   56  +27       3.95    69.18     7.32    88.89     5.74    39.02    46.71    78.00    99.60    86.06P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough   27   55  +23       7.32    84.15     7.55    88.50     5.95    33.48    40.16    74.32    99.42    82.75P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley         29   52  +21       1.55    57.31     5.08    81.84     5.69    30.56     8.54    27.08    94.40    49.94P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           29   50  +14       1.58    57.68     0.81    79.24     5.77    22.85     3.26    13.00    86.15    34.55P    0.00     0.00  
Brighton        28   50   +6      10.30    91.28     3.41    75.09     5.74     7.16     0.74     3.76    61.16    14.00P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich         29   48   +3       5.46    75.11    -1.28    73.16     5.73     5.96     0.35     1.86    47.83    10.64P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed       29   47  +11       5.59    76.24     8.11    71.36     5.61    12.83     0.10     0.82    38.38     7.70P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham      29   47   +9       6.55    79.95     7.59    70.71     5.68     9.93     0.12     0.79    32.62     6.19P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff         29   44   +5       3.19    65.81     2.90    68.35     5.68     6.61     0.02     0.31    19.88     3.95P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       29   40   +1      -1.39    43.42    -1.49    65.05     5.75     3.70     0.00     0.05     8.49     1.73P    0.00R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   29   39   +5      -2.44    37.97     1.96    62.86     5.65     5.98     0.00     0.01     4.30     0.88P    0.01R    0.00  
Wolverhampton   29   39   -1      -3.24    34.63    -4.92    62.48     5.67    -0.62     0.00     0.00     3.35     0.67P    0.03R    0.00  
QPR             29   36   +0      -6.00    23.29    -3.47    61.19     5.83     3.04     0.00     0.00     2.73     0.64P    0.09R    0.00  
Preston         29   36   -2      -0.99    45.47     0.89    58.36     5.57    -2.65     0.00     0.00     0.57     0.09P    0.19R    0.01  
Leeds_United    29   36   -4       0.35    52.44     1.28    57.29     5.53    -6.40     0.00     0.00     0.33     0.03P    0.34R    0.01  
Reading         29   35   +0      -2.71    36.97     2.59    57.33     5.61    -0.96     0.00     0.00     0.45     0.10P    0.38R    0.02  
Huddersfield    29   32   -3      -4.17    30.01     2.65    51.81     5.57    -8.20     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P    4.41R    0.23  
Blackburn       27   30   +0      -8.15    13.94    -2.20    55.65     5.95    -0.09     0.00     0.00     0.30     0.06P    1.24R    0.07  
Fulham          28   28   -5      -7.37    17.42     0.52    50.69     5.88    -8.32     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    7.83R    0.82  
MK_Dons         28   26  -18      -4.92    26.61    -7.10    45.79     5.75   -25.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   30.10R    5.87  
Rotherham       29   25  -18      -4.50    27.98    -1.73    41.27     5.31   -29.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.24R   19.86  
Bristol_City    29   25  -23      -5.64    23.40    -9.47    43.33     5.51   -30.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    47.91R   12.59  
Charlton        29   24  -29      -4.39    28.30   -11.83    40.70     5.34   -38.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    69.18R   25.63  
Bolton          29   21  -22     -10.06     8.46    -9.15    38.99     5.37   -29.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    76.05R   34.88  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 2 February 2016, Doncaster 1 2 Walsall; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Burton_Albion    28   57  +14      15.83    97.54     9.78    83.70     6.05    17.12    24.61    47.96    95.16    57.44P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall          28   56  +20      10.75    91.39     9.94    85.51     5.95    27.24    38.22    62.80    97.87    71.80P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham       29   54  +19       8.35    84.71    10.06    81.39     5.94    25.26    15.63    35.36    91.53    48.15P    0.00     0.00  
Wigan            29   52  +19      -0.71    45.91    -0.22    82.09     5.78    29.03    18.55    40.95    93.42    59.91P    0.00     0.00  
Coventry         29   48  +16       3.10    64.72     8.32    73.87     5.85    19.82     1.32     5.33    56.24    17.58P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         28   44   +6       1.32    56.34    -0.48    70.67     6.12     8.89     0.56     2.15    33.32     9.68P    0.02R    0.00  
Southend         28   44   +3       7.34    81.87     5.49    68.12     5.98     2.35     0.12     0.66    17.96     3.94P    0.06R    0.00  
Port_Vale        30   43   -1       4.18    70.07     2.28    64.63     5.56    -1.46     0.00     0.05     6.24     1.16P    0.27R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd        28   42   +6      -2.10    39.59    -2.59    70.04     6.08    11.00     0.35     1.69    30.05     9.27P    0.03R    0.00  
Peterborough     28   41  +12      -3.19    34.56     3.11    70.76     6.08    19.76     0.43     2.03    36.80    11.48P    0.02R    0.00  
Bradford         27   41   -1       4.56    72.95    -0.51    66.98     6.11    -0.75     0.10     0.48    14.17     3.21P    0.17R    0.00  
Barnsley         28   39   +3      -2.30    39.06    -1.12    65.84     6.07     6.24     0.07     0.34    11.55     3.04P    0.30R    0.00  
Scunthorpe       28   38   -4       2.64    63.59     0.73    60.95     6.00    -6.85     0.00     0.03     2.39     0.44P    2.43R    0.00  
Rochdale         27   37   +0       0.07    50.86     0.41    64.61     6.30     2.14     0.03     0.16     8.80     2.02P    0.71R    0.00  
Bury             27   37   -4       4.05    70.44     2.42    59.39     6.24    -9.88     0.00     0.01     1.76     0.27P    4.58R    0.03  
Doncaster        29   36   -4      -3.27    34.60    -3.32    58.70     5.82    -4.92     0.00     0.00     0.87     0.18P    4.57R    0.03  
Swindon          29   35   -5      -7.77    17.61    -9.40    59.67     5.94    -3.18     0.00     0.00     1.39     0.34P    3.75R    0.03  
Blackpool        29   33   -7      -3.66    33.01    -2.87    55.46     5.75    -8.06     0.00     0.00     0.20     0.04P   12.76R    0.24  
Chesterfield     28   30  -10      -7.21    18.42    -7.83    54.72     6.09   -10.17     0.00     0.00     0.20     0.04P   16.12R    0.40  
Shrewsbury       29   29  -15      -5.57    24.90    -6.96    48.07     5.73   -21.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   59.19R    3.99  
Fleetwood_Town   27   28   -3      -6.50    19.85     0.64    51.77     6.13    -6.32     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.02P   29.54R    1.27  
Oldham           27   24  -13      -7.53    16.07    -4.83    44.79     5.95   -20.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    76.87R   11.72  
Crewe            28   23  -22      -3.80    30.98    -3.39    40.62     5.62   -33.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    93.33R   35.40  
Colchester       28   22  -29      -5.70    23.03    -9.64    39.53     5.68   -41.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    95.29R   46.89  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 2 February 2016, Luton 1 1 Yeovil; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Northampton          27   58  +18      14.93    97.15     8.80    88.45     6.35    24.58    53.07    88.48    99.44    90.82P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth             29   56  +17       8.76    86.19     6.11    83.98     5.77    23.76    21.11    71.86    97.99    79.06P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           27   51  +19       7.63    83.75     9.73    82.22     6.27    26.58    16.72    61.64    95.28    70.53P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       29   47  +10       5.32    74.17     6.83    72.63     5.87    13.47     0.63     8.25    56.61    19.41P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           27   45  +21       1.10    55.53    10.81    76.24     6.29    28.67     3.52    25.54    78.61    41.04P    0.00     0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   25   45  +14       8.88    87.66    11.46    75.77     6.82    16.83     3.40    22.84    72.67    32.85P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield            29   44   +8       6.20    78.19    10.62    65.74     5.72     5.83     0.01     0.77    15.41     3.54P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              27   43   +6       1.65    58.44    -0.40    72.11     6.23    10.50     0.71     8.01    52.07    19.54P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient        29   43   +4      -5.91    23.99    -9.88    71.63     5.96    12.09     0.49     6.91    50.35    21.42P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon        28   42   +7       2.94    64.51     6.16    66.82     6.12     7.15     0.08     1.64    21.59     5.81P    0.00R    0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        29   41   +2       2.60    62.88     4.38    63.09     5.83     0.01     0.01     0.24     7.43     1.65P    0.01R    0.00  
Exeter               28   40   -1       1.95    59.87    -0.12    63.99     6.11    -2.18     0.02     0.43    10.06     2.37P    0.01R    0.00  
Carlisle             25   39   +3       4.66    73.29     3.39    67.12     6.84     1.43     0.19     2.64    23.96     6.65P    0.01R    0.00  
Morecambe            29   36   -2      -2.64    37.95     0.28    59.29     5.93    -2.31     0.00     0.03     2.36     0.54P    0.18R    0.03  
Notts_County         27   36   -6      -3.02    35.83    -8.85    64.43     6.48    -2.55     0.03     0.65    12.57     3.82P    0.05R    0.00  
Luton                29   35   +0      -6.33    22.08    -2.29    59.58     5.86     1.82     0.00     0.04     2.65     0.72P    0.15R    0.01  
Crawley_Town         29   34  -14      -3.84    32.73   -10.95    56.52     5.93   -15.33     0.00     0.01     0.59     0.14P    0.85R    0.18  
Barnet               28   33   -8       0.42    52.89     1.17    54.10     6.02   -13.59     0.00     0.00     0.29     0.07P    2.28R    0.51  
Stevenage            29   28  -14      -9.90    11.07   -10.76    49.86     5.88   -16.49     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P    8.14R    2.19  
Newport_County       28   27  -11      -6.22    21.65    -3.12    48.41     5.92   -15.96     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   12.09R    3.48  
Yeovil               29   24  -14     -12.58     5.77    -9.50    45.40     5.82   -16.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.64R    9.10  
Hartlepool           25   24  -18      -1.05    45.46    -4.09    44.93     6.23   -29.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    33.19R   14.63  
Dag_&_Red            27   20  -20     -10.28     8.38    -9.11    41.26     6.07   -27.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    55.11R   30.97  
York                 27   20  -21     -10.18     8.39   -10.68    40.16     5.96   -30.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    63.27R   38.90  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 2 February 2016, Barrow 0 0 Gateshead; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Forest_Green     31   67  +24      11.86    92.97     4.82    92.12     5.41    31.02    18.15    99.57    38.43P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham       30   66  +38       5.10    73.85     7.60    97.99     5.26    53.35    76.33    99.99    85.32P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          29   55  +36      -3.17    33.21     7.95    86.36     5.58    48.08     5.12    95.72    40.57P    0.00     0.00  
Eastleigh        28   50  +11       5.25    74.18     1.50    78.39     6.01    16.77     0.27    60.63     9.90P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         31   50  +10      -3.83    32.32    -6.93    75.41     5.37    17.06     0.03    40.49     9.36P    0.00     0.00  
Woking           32   49  +13      -2.77    37.50     0.97    69.20     5.13    14.27     0.00     8.66     1.45P    0.00     0.00  
Braintree_Town   28   49  +12       6.84    81.32     6.41    76.28     5.83    15.92     0.10    46.08     7.75P    0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic   30   49   +9       4.68    71.70     4.47    73.58     5.60    12.91     0.01    27.65     4.06P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead        30   48   -3       5.83    76.09    -4.22    68.52     5.53    -5.23     0.00     6.79     0.74P    0.00R    0.00  
Macclesfield     32   47   +9      -1.50    43.08     2.15    68.77     5.14    12.83     0.00     6.72     1.19P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City     32   45   +3       1.47    57.30     3.83    63.94     5.14     2.33     0.00     1.05     0.13P    0.01R    0.00  
Wrexham          30   44  +10      -2.33    38.85     2.29    67.71     5.50    12.59     0.00     5.87     0.99P    0.00R    0.00  
Aldershot        31   41   -7       1.34    57.07    -2.56    60.91     5.34    -7.97     0.00     0.23     0.05P    0.08R    0.00  
Bromley          29   38   -2       2.03    60.08     5.52    60.54     6.01    -3.84     0.00     0.51     0.05P    0.29R    0.01  
Southport        30   38   -9       5.13    74.61     3.35    56.98     5.37   -13.34     0.00     0.04     0.01P    1.03R    0.01  
Barrow           31   38  -16       5.68    76.03     1.62    54.62     5.35   -22.53     0.00     0.01     0.00     2.87R    0.05  
Chester          31   35  -11       0.08    51.52     1.21    53.22     5.25   -14.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.41R    0.14  
Guiseley         30   34  -17       3.29    67.11    -0.87    48.96     5.16   -27.70     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.72R    0.90  
Halifax          30   30  -19      -7.18    19.06   -11.66    48.31     5.45   -25.58     0.00     0.00     0.00    22.70R    1.79  
Altrincham       28   30  -20       3.08    67.56    -1.75    51.11     5.88   -25.41     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.92R    0.83  
Boreham_Wood     29   28   -6      -4.79    27.84     3.25    48.27     5.63    -9.96     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.03R    1.63  
Welling          29   25  -16      -5.95    21.79    -3.09    42.85     5.40   -24.31     0.00     0.00     0.00    60.40R   11.21  
Torquay          29   20  -27     -12.76     4.60   -15.21    42.70     5.82   -28.16     0.00     0.00     0.00    61.20R   13.28  
Kidderminster    28   14  -22     -16.90     0.75   -10.66    34.51     5.76   -28.23     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.33R   70.14