Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Tuesday 2 February 2016 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 2 February 2016, Arsenal 0 0 Southampton; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Leicester        24   50  +18      14.23    97.59    13.77    70.37     5.09    19.52    14.63    37.95    62.75    83.46    97.81     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         24   47  +23      -2.02    37.23    -3.28    75.05     4.92    37.14    55.34    78.73    91.02    97.23    99.81     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        24   45  +25       2.87    65.53    10.81    68.53     5.07    31.52    10.13    28.89    52.92    76.85    96.30     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          24   45  +15       1.14    55.77    -1.57    70.98     4.90    25.45    18.20    46.25    70.03    87.52    98.63     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          24   40  +10      -1.58    40.79    -2.81    63.99     5.01    17.08     1.55     6.88    17.75    36.74    81.79     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham         24   39  +10       4.44    73.59     7.76    58.39     5.07    10.34     0.10     0.80     2.92     8.13    40.01     0.00     0.00  
Southampton      24   34   +8      -3.54    30.91     1.12    56.05     5.12    12.21     0.02     0.20     1.02     3.64    25.61     0.01R    0.00  
Liverpool        24   34   -4      -0.79    45.81    -6.54    55.82     5.18    -0.07     0.01     0.14     0.69     2.60    20.49     0.00R    0.00  
Stoke            24   33   -4       2.73    65.82    -0.57    51.60     5.00    -4.86     0.00     0.01     0.07     0.34     5.20     0.11R    0.00  
Watford          23   32   +1       4.02    72.46     6.64    50.49     5.26    -2.25     0.00     0.02     0.07     0.35     4.50     0.24R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   24   31   -4       2.74    66.36     2.79    47.68     4.94    -7.40     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.05     1.06     0.91R    0.00  
Everton          23   29   +6      -5.32    22.39     2.07    53.17     5.39    11.55     0.01     0.06     0.30     1.38    12.98     0.13R    0.00  
West_Brom        24   29   -8       1.10    57.20    -0.86    44.44     4.82   -13.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.15     4.78R    0.02  
Chelsea          23   28   -2     -11.63     4.55   -14.42    54.15     5.38     6.42     0.01     0.08     0.44     1.70    15.51     0.09R    0.00  
Bournemouth      24   28  -10       1.69    60.53     1.42    42.36     4.95   -18.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07    10.52R    0.16  
Swansea          24   26   -9      -3.54    30.92    -3.98    42.71     4.95   -12.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.08     8.57R    0.13  
Norwich          24   23  -18      -1.02    45.25    -2.66    37.21     4.89   -26.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    45.77R    2.81  
Newcastle        23   21  -16      -2.02    39.01    -1.86    36.69     5.07   -24.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    48.94R    3.52  
Sunderland       24   19  -19      -4.40    25.75    -3.10    32.25     4.78   -28.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    81.37R   13.06  
Aston_Villa      24   13  -22      -8.52     8.24    -4.72    25.20     4.50   -33.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.56R   80.29  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 2 February 2016, Derby 0 0 Preston; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Hull            28   56  +27       3.80    68.38     7.08    89.01     5.69    39.21    47.60    78.81    99.58    86.31P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough   27   55  +23       7.42    84.44     7.68    88.39     5.94    33.30    39.33    73.64    99.39    82.28P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley         29   52  +21       1.57    57.44     5.12    81.90     5.73    30.59     8.71    27.61    94.22    49.96P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           29   50  +14       1.64    58.23     0.89    79.11     5.74    22.70     3.04    12.49    85.84    33.89P    0.00     0.00  
Brighton        28   50   +6      10.39    91.39     3.55    75.08     5.77     7.16     0.79     3.78    61.14    14.30P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich         29   48   +3       5.41    75.25    -1.34    73.15     5.70     5.96     0.31     1.80    47.86    10.76P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed       29   47  +11       5.49    75.72     8.01    71.45     5.64    12.97     0.12     0.88    38.80     8.14P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham      29   47   +9       6.69    80.48     7.75    70.68     5.67     9.87     0.07     0.64    32.39     6.12P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff         29   44   +5       3.00    65.14     2.68    68.42     5.70     6.70     0.02     0.28    20.26     4.11P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       29   40   +1      -1.41    43.31    -1.48    65.02     5.72     3.66     0.00     0.03     8.36     1.67P    0.00R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   29   39   +5      -2.35    38.56     2.07    62.80     5.65     5.90     0.00     0.01     4.07     0.79P    0.02R    0.00  
Wolverhampton   29   39   -1      -3.41    33.73    -5.19    62.63     5.64    -0.46     0.00     0.01     3.57     0.73P    0.02R    0.00  
QPR             29   36   +0      -5.97    23.33    -3.53    61.20     5.82     3.07     0.00     0.00     2.79     0.66P    0.06R    0.00  
Preston         29   36   -2      -1.00    45.83     0.85    58.33     5.61    -2.67     0.00     0.00     0.64     0.12P    0.17R    0.00  
Leeds_United    29   36   -4       0.28    52.31     1.21    57.34     5.53    -6.33     0.00     0.00     0.34     0.05P    0.34R    0.01  
Reading         29   35   +0      -2.58    37.45     2.82    57.23     5.64    -1.08     0.00     0.00     0.41     0.08P    0.38R    0.01  
Huddersfield    29   32   -3      -4.05    30.94     2.85    51.74     5.62    -8.31     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00     4.49R    0.28  
Blackburn       27   30   +0      -7.92    14.51    -1.86    55.56     5.96    -0.24     0.00     0.00     0.28     0.05P    1.31R    0.06  
Fulham          28   28   -5      -7.51    17.18     0.29    50.86     5.92    -8.10     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P    7.52R    0.86  
MK_Dons         28   26  -18      -4.95    26.55    -7.25    45.75     5.71   -25.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   30.57R    5.69  
Rotherham       29   25  -18      -4.59    27.46    -1.91    41.36     5.32   -29.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    61.87R   19.39  
Bristol_City    29   25  -23      -5.43    24.34    -9.10    43.23     5.53   -30.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    48.57R   13.34  
Charlton        29   24  -29      -4.41    28.29   -11.83    40.71     5.30   -38.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    69.16R   25.68  
Bolton          29   21  -22     -10.20     8.42    -9.33    39.03     5.40   -29.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    75.52R   34.66  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 2 February 2016, Doncaster 1 2 Walsall; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Burton_Albion    28   57  +14      15.90    97.70     9.88    83.69     6.06    17.14    24.62    48.01    95.19    57.50P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall          28   56  +20      10.78    91.26     9.98    85.47     6.00    27.19    38.00    62.51    97.75    71.56P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham       29   54  +19       8.31    84.43     9.98    81.41     5.90    25.28    15.54    35.10    91.72    48.34P    0.00     0.00  
Wigan            29   52  +19      -0.75    45.75    -0.35    82.11     5.83    29.07    18.80    41.36    93.53    60.23P    0.00     0.00  
Coventry         29   48  +16       3.10    64.79     8.30    73.87     5.85    19.82     1.40     5.41    56.25    17.11P    0.00R    0.00  
Millwall         28   44   +6       1.04    54.98    -0.86    70.82     6.20     9.11     0.59     2.34    34.04     9.97P    0.02R    0.00  
Southend         28   44   +3       7.30    81.95     5.41    68.20     5.98     2.47     0.16     0.74    18.25     4.02P    0.09R    0.00  
Port_Vale        30   43   -1       4.02    69.36     2.08    64.67     5.58    -1.37     0.01     0.06     6.43     1.21P    0.29R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd        28   42   +6      -1.91    40.50    -2.29    69.92     6.07    10.83     0.35     1.59    29.37     8.88P    0.03R    0.00  
Peterborough     28   41  +12      -3.20    34.76     3.14    70.74     6.10    19.71     0.37     1.92    36.50    11.53P    0.02R    0.00  
Bradford         27   41   -1       4.62    72.98    -0.38    66.93     6.08    -0.84     0.08     0.44    13.97     3.18P    0.17R    0.00  
Barnsley         28   39   +3      -2.22    39.44    -1.03    65.81     6.05     6.16     0.04     0.29    11.44     2.94P    0.30R    0.00  
Scunthorpe       28   38   -4       2.42    62.61     0.44    61.01     5.97    -6.73     0.00     0.01     2.25     0.40P    2.44R    0.01  
Rochdale         27   37   +0      -0.11    49.65     0.16    64.68     6.34     2.25     0.03     0.20     9.10     2.14P    0.80R    0.00  
Bury             27   37   -4       4.12    70.51     2.50    59.29     6.21    -9.97     0.00     0.02     1.64     0.30P    4.70R    0.02  
Doncaster        29   36   -4      -3.23    34.72    -3.23    58.72     5.82    -4.91     0.00     0.00     0.88     0.20P    4.52R    0.03  
Swindon          29   35   -5      -7.75    17.39    -9.42    59.67     5.91    -3.16     0.00     0.00     1.29     0.39P    3.56R    0.03  
Blackpool        29   33   -7      -3.67    33.14    -2.92    55.57     5.78    -7.90     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.05P   12.33R    0.25  
Chesterfield     28   30  -10      -7.12    18.83    -7.65    54.67     6.09   -10.25     0.00     0.00     0.18     0.04P   16.42R    0.44  
Shrewsbury       29   29  -15      -5.32    25.95    -6.62    47.99     5.69   -21.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    59.49R    4.03  
Fleetwood_Town   27   28   -3      -6.45    20.11     0.66    51.71     6.10    -6.41     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P   29.75R    1.16  
Oldham           27   24  -13      -7.52    16.04    -4.87    44.77     5.94   -20.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    76.85R   11.53  
Crewe            28   23  -22      -3.79    31.30    -3.35    40.65     5.61   -33.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    93.08R   35.32  
Colchester       28   22  -29      -5.67    23.05    -9.56    39.53     5.72   -41.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    95.12R   47.17  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 2 February 2016, Luton 1 1 Yeovil; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Northampton          27   58  +18      14.97    97.12     8.91    88.42     6.35    24.53    52.89    88.23    99.35    90.67P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth             29   56  +17       8.76    85.85     6.11    83.95     5.79    23.73    21.21    71.47    97.99    78.57P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           27   51  +19       7.78    84.25     9.88    82.18     6.23    26.52    16.39    61.35    95.28    70.29P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       29   47  +10       5.26    73.73     6.77    72.66     5.92    13.48     0.62     8.38    56.89    19.78P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           27   45  +21       1.11    55.46    10.71    76.26     6.26    28.70     3.50    25.19    78.80    40.67P    0.00     0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   25   45  +14       8.72    87.16    11.20    75.99     6.84    17.15     3.80    23.86    73.41    33.83P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield            29   44   +8       6.04    77.22    10.41    65.80     5.71     5.94     0.02     0.74    15.68     3.59P    0.00R    0.00  
Wycombe              27   43   +6       1.57    58.15    -0.52    72.14     6.28    10.56     0.73     8.36    52.11    19.92P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient        29   43   +4      -5.92    24.13    -9.90    71.63     6.02    12.03     0.51     6.84    49.97    21.17P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon        28   42   +7       2.84    63.92     6.03    66.88     6.10     7.24     0.09     1.60    21.94     6.01P    0.01R    0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        29   41   +2       2.83    63.96     4.78    62.95     5.86    -0.24     0.01     0.25     7.00     1.49P    0.01R    0.00  
Exeter               28   40   -1       2.02    60.21    -0.02    64.01     6.11    -2.12     0.02     0.46    10.03     2.37P    0.01R    0.00  
Carlisle             25   39   +3       4.91    74.26     3.80    66.92     6.83     1.09     0.18     2.50    23.05     6.45P    0.01R    0.01  
Morecambe            29   36   -2      -2.70    37.62     0.22    59.34     5.93    -2.22     0.00     0.04     2.33     0.57P    0.16R    0.02  
Notts_County         27   36   -6      -3.32    34.47    -9.26    64.61     6.43    -2.21     0.02     0.67    12.84     3.83P    0.04R    0.00  
Luton                29   35   +0      -6.03    23.25    -1.87    59.41     5.83     1.61     0.00     0.03     2.37     0.59P    0.15R    0.02  
Crawley_Town         29   34  -14      -3.85    32.53   -10.95    56.54     5.94   -15.31     0.00     0.01     0.64     0.16P    0.86R    0.15  
Barnet               28   33   -8       0.45    53.18     1.26    54.03     5.94   -13.71     0.00     0.00     0.27     0.03P    2.21R    0.49  
Stevenage            29   28  -14     -10.01    10.97   -10.98    49.87     5.88   -16.43     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    8.07R    2.20  
Newport_County       28   27  -11      -6.31    21.04    -3.34    48.42     5.88   -15.89     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   11.67R    3.50  
Yeovil               29   24  -14     -12.43     5.96    -9.33    45.29     5.81   -16.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    25.29R    9.49  
Hartlepool           25   24  -18      -1.03    45.62    -4.00    44.85     6.19   -30.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    33.61R   14.78  
Dag_&_Red            27   20  -20     -10.26     8.39    -9.18    41.28     6.05   -27.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    54.90R   30.52  
York                 27   20  -21     -10.16     8.48   -10.72    40.18     6.05   -29.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.99R   38.81  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 2 February 2016, Barrow 0 0 Gateshead; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Forest_Green     31   67  +24      11.75    92.74     4.66    92.25     5.42    31.19    18.68    99.50    38.72P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham       30   66  +38       4.92    73.09     7.17    98.12     5.27    53.57    76.02    99.98    85.00P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          29   55  +36      -3.16    33.36     7.99    86.33     5.61    48.03     4.95    95.67    40.18P    0.00     0.00  
Eastleigh        28   50  +11       4.98    73.21     1.07    78.56     5.98    17.00     0.24    61.63    10.30P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         31   50  +10      -3.83    31.90    -6.95    75.37     5.36    17.04     0.02    40.56     9.55P    0.00     0.00  
Woking           32   49  +13      -2.76    37.44     1.00    69.16     5.13    14.17     0.00     8.38     1.50P    0.00     0.00  
Braintree_Town   28   49  +12       7.16    82.45     6.81    76.11     5.85    15.66     0.07    44.83     7.39P    0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic   30   49   +9       4.59    70.95     4.34    73.61     5.62    12.94     0.02    28.14     4.11P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead        30   48   -3       5.84    76.27    -4.18    68.53     5.52    -5.21     0.00     6.89     0.84P    0.00     0.00  
Macclesfield     32   47   +9      -1.39    43.52     2.36    68.73     5.14    12.76     0.00     6.88     1.27P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City     32   45   +3       1.55    57.77     3.93    63.83     5.12     2.18     0.00     0.87     0.08P    0.01R    0.00  
Wrexham          30   44  +10      -2.27    39.37     2.47    67.66     5.54    12.50     0.00     5.90     0.97P    0.00R    0.00  
Aldershot        31   41   -7       1.37    57.43    -2.54    60.91     5.31    -7.97     0.00     0.21     0.03P    0.11R    0.00  
Bromley          29   38   -2       2.13    60.81     5.70    60.52     6.00    -3.80     0.00     0.49     0.04P    0.35R    0.00  
Southport        30   38   -9       5.01    74.65     3.23    57.11     5.34   -13.14     0.00     0.04     0.00P    0.99R    0.02  
Barrow           31   38  -16       5.40    74.90     1.16    54.72     5.31   -22.36     0.00     0.01     0.00P    2.62R    0.04  
Chester          31   35  -11       0.01    51.01     1.13    53.28     5.25   -14.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.17R    0.13  
Guiseley         30   34  -17       3.49    67.70    -0.45    48.78     5.18   -28.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.82R    0.92  
Halifax          30   30  -19      -7.21    19.01   -11.74    48.28     5.43   -25.60     0.00     0.00     0.00    22.68R    1.85  
Altrincham       28   30  -20       3.29    68.71    -1.43    51.01     5.84   -25.56     0.00     0.00     0.00    13.08R    0.78  
Boreham_Wood     29   28   -6      -4.79    27.68     3.27    48.28     5.58    -9.97     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.02R    1.59  
Welling          29   25  -16      -6.03    21.45    -3.20    42.94     5.41   -24.21     0.00     0.00     0.00    59.99R   10.76  
Torquay          29   20  -27     -12.84     4.33   -15.27    42.73     5.78   -28.12     0.00     0.00     0.00    60.79R   13.25  
Kidderminster    28   14  -22     -16.80     0.74   -10.50    34.47     5.74   -28.27     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.37R   70.65