Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Monday 1 February 2016 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 24 January 2016, Arsenal 0 1 Chelsea; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Leicester        23   47  +16      13.17    96.80    12.70    68.60     5.31    17.25    10.36    29.66    55.89    77.58    94.90     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         23   44  +22      -3.05    31.41    -3.47    74.47     5.11    37.99    53.68    79.10    91.33    97.11    99.67     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          23   44  +15       1.69    58.94    -1.47    72.02     5.13    26.48    27.29    60.35    80.75    92.50    98.94     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        23   42  +22       2.47    63.59     9.76    66.98     5.30    28.62     7.26    23.33    47.09    71.45    92.79     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          23   37   +7      -2.00    38.53    -4.01    62.48     5.23    14.19     1.17     5.47    15.50    32.42    72.31     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham         23   36   +8       3.80    70.97     7.21    57.26     5.32     9.06     0.09     0.75     3.02     8.40    33.50     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        23   34   -2      -0.19    48.89    -5.74    57.44     5.44     2.29     0.09     0.69     2.89     7.92    32.78     0.01R    0.00  
Southampton      23   33   +8      -3.42    31.10     0.83    55.91     5.33    11.50     0.03     0.40     1.80     5.59    26.34     0.01R    0.00  
Stoke            23   33   -1       2.86    66.59     0.70    52.91     5.17    -1.91     0.01     0.04     0.31     1.32     9.76     0.06R    0.00  
Watford          23   32   +1       3.88    71.38     6.50    50.49     5.30    -2.28     0.00     0.02     0.13     0.61     4.92     0.36R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   23   31   -3       3.89    72.49     3.44    49.66     5.21    -5.50     0.00     0.01     0.05     0.28     3.21     0.59R    0.00  
Everton          23   29   +6      -5.30    22.55     2.17    53.11     5.41    11.44     0.00     0.08     0.51     1.98    13.49     0.12R    0.00  
Chelsea          23   28   -2     -11.62     4.46   -14.35    54.16     5.40     6.44     0.01     0.11     0.73     2.81    16.77     0.09R    0.00  
West_Brom        23   28   -8       1.69    60.91    -0.57    44.91     5.11   -13.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.36     5.06R    0.04  
Swansea          23   25   -9      -3.21    32.35    -4.05    42.91     5.17   -12.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.16     9.28R    0.22  
Bournemouth      23   25  -11       0.17    51.99     0.62    40.18     5.15   -19.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.05    22.53R    0.97  
Norwich          23   23  -15      -0.89    46.03    -1.75    38.65     5.17   -23.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    33.78R    2.42  
Newcastle        23   21  -16      -1.75    40.59    -1.38    36.50     5.00   -24.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    51.26R    5.00  
Sunderland       23   19  -18      -3.65    29.41    -2.98    32.64     4.93   -29.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    79.33R   15.41  
Aston_Villa      23   13  -20      -8.17     9.04    -4.15    26.06     4.72   -31.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.53R   75.94  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 30 January 2016, Bristol_City 0 0 Birmingham; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Hull            28   56  +27       3.96    69.21     7.31    88.90     5.71    39.05    45.13    75.78    99.65    84.54P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough   27   55  +23       7.26    83.70     7.46    88.51     5.93    33.50    39.11    71.93    99.46    81.39P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley         28   51  +21       1.96    59.67     5.11    82.33     5.91    30.73     9.81    28.90    94.58    51.05P    0.00     0.00  
Brighton        28   50   +6      10.40    91.44     3.58    75.09     5.77     7.14     0.72     3.52    61.41    13.69P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           28   49  +14       2.18    60.94     1.04    80.32     5.94    23.89     4.81    16.87    89.11    38.31P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham      29   47   +9       6.80    80.72     7.92    70.61     5.68     9.75     0.09     0.64    32.44     5.96P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed       28   46  +11       5.83    77.67     8.01    71.61     5.86    12.71     0.15     1.07    40.75     8.25P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich         28   45   +2       4.40    71.46    -1.48    71.65     5.88     5.15     0.14     0.97    38.41     8.21P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff         29   44   +5       3.12    65.62     2.85    68.39     5.68     6.70     0.02     0.23    20.50     3.86P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       29   40   +1      -1.23    44.43    -1.26    64.98     5.78     3.60     0.00     0.04     8.63     1.63P    0.01R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   29   39   +5      -2.35    38.56     2.10    62.77     5.65     5.86     0.00     0.01     4.09     0.84P    0.02R    0.00  
Wolverhampton   28   38   -1      -2.65    37.11    -4.59    63.70     5.85     0.66     0.00     0.02     5.75     1.16P    0.01R    0.00  
QPR             29   36   +0      -6.18    22.56    -3.78    61.37     5.83     3.27     0.00     0.01     2.88     0.72P    0.06R    0.00  
Leeds_United    29   36   -4       0.38    52.51     1.34    57.24     5.51    -6.43     0.00     0.00     0.33     0.05P    0.38R    0.01  
Reading         28   35   +1      -1.68    41.98     3.13    58.35     5.80    -0.43     0.00     0.00     0.88     0.14P    0.29R    0.01  
Preston         28   35   -2      -0.96    45.79     0.51    58.05     5.80    -3.65     0.00     0.00     0.75     0.13P    0.33R    0.01  
Huddersfield    29   32   -3      -4.16    30.32     2.68    51.84     5.59    -8.20     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P    4.35R    0.24  
Blackburn       27   30   +0      -8.01    14.42    -2.00    55.61     5.94    -0.20     0.00     0.00     0.32     0.06P    1.19R    0.05  
Fulham          28   28   -5      -7.51    17.15     0.30    50.77     5.93    -8.22     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P    7.67R    0.74  
MK_Dons         28   26  -18      -5.11    25.68    -7.40    45.85     5.74   -25.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    29.68R    5.29  
Rotherham       29   25  -18      -4.46    28.40    -1.68    41.27     5.30   -29.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    61.89R   18.98  
Bristol_City    29   25  -23      -5.58    24.25    -9.36    43.32     5.53   -30.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    47.89R   12.18  
Charlton        29   24  -29      -4.41    27.95   -11.81    40.68     5.31   -38.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    69.18R   25.41  
Bolton          28   20  -22     -10.22     7.85    -9.98    38.70     5.56   -30.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    77.06R   37.09  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 30 January 2016, Blackpool 1 0 Gillingham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Burton_Albion    28   57  +14      15.99    97.86    10.02    83.65     6.03    17.05    27.10    49.98    95.49    58.95P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham       29   54  +19       8.29    84.40    10.03    81.43     5.94    25.35    17.81    37.97    92.08    50.61P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall          27   53  +19       9.65    89.35     9.70    83.70     6.14    25.95    30.25    53.28    95.67    64.10P    0.00     0.00  
Wigan            29   52  +19      -0.77    45.51    -0.36    82.09     5.80    29.06    21.05    44.20    93.83    61.92P    0.00     0.00  
Coventry         29   48  +16       2.95    64.17     8.10    73.89     5.87    19.81     1.70     6.20    57.56    18.43P    0.00R    0.00  
Millwall         28   44   +6       1.26    56.08    -0.55    70.65     6.16     8.85     0.69     2.44    34.10    10.06P    0.03R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd        28   42   +6      -2.02    40.00    -2.45    69.95     6.10    10.85     0.51     1.94    30.65     9.55P    0.04R    0.00  
Peterborough     28   41  +12      -3.18    34.65     3.17    70.63     6.08    19.58     0.53     2.18    37.13    11.57P    0.04R    0.00  
Southend         27   41   +2       6.15    78.27     5.11    66.21     6.19     0.99     0.09     0.47    12.52     2.66P    0.37R    0.00  
Bradford         27   41   -1       4.49    72.52    -0.58    67.04     6.08    -0.66     0.13     0.53    14.86     3.50P    0.19R    0.00  
Port_Vale        29   40   -2       2.76    64.16     1.69    62.92     5.79    -2.61     0.00     0.04     4.16     0.81P    1.09R    0.00  
Barnsley         28   39   +3      -2.29    39.16    -1.15    65.98     6.10     6.42     0.09     0.46    12.73     3.42P    0.34R    0.00  
Scunthorpe       28   38   -4       2.57    63.35     0.68    60.93     5.95    -6.80     0.00     0.03     2.40     0.45P    2.75R    0.01  
Rochdale         27   37   +0      -0.08    49.85     0.13    64.67     6.33     2.23     0.04     0.23     9.52     2.29P    0.81R    0.00  
Bury             27   37   -4       4.07    70.31     2.46    59.27     6.19   -10.05     0.00     0.01     1.76     0.31P    5.60R    0.04  
Doncaster        28   36   -3      -2.47    37.87    -3.11    60.19     6.04    -3.69     0.00     0.02     2.00     0.46P    3.48R    0.02  
Swindon          28   35   -4      -6.69    20.75    -8.91    61.16     6.16    -1.99     0.01     0.03     3.02     0.82P    2.85R    0.02  
Blackpool        29   33   -7      -3.82    32.40    -3.15    55.56     5.77    -7.92     0.00     0.00     0.21     0.04P   14.04R    0.27  
Chesterfield     28   30  -10      -7.12    18.66    -7.66    54.66     6.05   -10.26     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.06P   18.18R    0.46  
Shrewsbury       28   29  -14      -4.40    29.18    -6.31    49.64     5.92   -20.20     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.01P   50.60R    2.66  
Fleetwood_Town   27   28   -3      -6.42    20.44     0.72    51.81     6.14    -6.26     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.02P   31.88R    1.22  
Oldham           27   24  -13      -7.54    15.94    -4.86    44.87     5.93   -20.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.20R   11.63  
Crewe            28   23  -22      -3.76    31.49    -3.30    40.60     5.61   -33.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    93.91R   35.93  
Colchester       28   22  -29      -5.64    23.48    -9.44    39.57     5.76   -41.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    95.61R   47.75  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 30 January 2016, AFC_Wimbledon 2 3 Yeovil; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Northampton          27   58  +18      14.93    97.08     8.89    88.42     6.33    24.56    52.20    87.73    99.34    90.22P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth             29   56  +17       8.76    85.85     6.10    84.01     5.79    23.81    20.92    70.79    97.88    78.10P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           27   51  +19       7.75    83.94     9.85    82.17     6.20    26.46    16.02    60.08    95.25    69.43P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       29   47  +10       5.30    74.05     6.84    72.70     5.87    13.49     0.58     7.99    56.53    19.47P    0.00     0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   25   45  +14       8.75    87.26    11.29    75.88     6.83    17.06     3.48    22.86    72.77    33.02P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           26   44  +21       1.50    57.63    10.77    77.07     6.54    29.35     5.20    29.68    80.82    44.75P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield            29   44   +8       5.94    77.19    10.29    65.85     5.73     6.02     0.03     0.74    15.89     3.50P    0.00R    0.00  
Wycombe              27   43   +6       1.62    58.24    -0.47    72.13     6.24    10.56     0.76     8.21    51.50    19.56P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient        29   43   +4      -6.00    23.64   -10.02    71.65     5.96    12.08     0.51     6.58    49.86    20.81P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon        28   42   +7       2.92    64.67     6.13    66.80     6.07     7.15     0.08     1.49    21.03     5.56P    0.00R    0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        29   41   +2       2.77    63.63     4.72    63.00     5.82    -0.16     0.00     0.22     7.10     1.53P    0.02R    0.00  
Exeter               28   40   -1       2.09    60.74     0.09    63.95     6.08    -2.22     0.02     0.40     9.59     2.16P    0.00R    0.00  
Carlisle             25   39   +3       4.80    73.62     3.59    67.03     6.81     1.23     0.17     2.48    23.27     6.53P    0.01R    0.00  
Notts_County         27   36   -6      -3.20    34.98    -9.09    64.56     6.42    -2.32     0.02     0.62    12.49     3.67P    0.04R    0.01  
Morecambe            28   35   -2      -2.32    39.16     0.22    59.29     6.10    -2.88     0.00     0.06     2.65     0.62P    0.19R    0.03  
Luton                28   34   +0      -5.60    24.24    -1.81    60.04     6.07     1.97     0.00     0.06     3.11     0.83P    0.14R    0.02  
Crawley_Town         29   34  -14      -3.98    32.14   -11.18    56.63     5.91   -15.18     0.00     0.00     0.60     0.17P    0.79R    0.14  
Barnet               28   33   -8       0.50    53.26     1.35    54.00     6.02   -13.72     0.00     0.00     0.29     0.05P    2.33R    0.49  
Stevenage            29   28  -14      -9.98    10.97   -10.91    49.85     5.89   -16.47     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    8.04R    2.20  
Newport_County       28   27  -11      -6.30    21.14    -3.26    48.44     5.93   -15.89     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.01P   11.86R    3.44  
Hartlepool           25   24  -18      -1.18    44.64    -4.31    45.03     6.19   -29.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   32.27R   14.11  
Yeovil               28   23  -14     -12.12     5.99    -9.33    45.33     6.01   -17.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   25.37R    9.90  
Dag_&_Red            27   20  -20     -10.23     8.58    -9.09    41.21     6.04   -27.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    55.42R   30.72  
York                 27   20  -21     -10.15     8.23   -10.66    40.13     5.94   -30.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    63.52R   38.94  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 30 January 2016, Aldershot 1 0 Kidderminster; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Forest_Green     31   67  +24      11.74    92.85     4.64    92.21     5.42    31.13    18.50    99.60    38.97P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham       30   66  +38       5.07    73.77     7.39    98.02     5.27    53.44    76.11    99.99    85.40P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          29   55  +36      -3.27    32.55     7.74    86.44     5.60    48.18     5.06    95.93    40.45P    0.00     0.00  
Eastleigh        28   50  +11       5.27    74.34     1.57    78.43     5.99    16.78     0.26    61.60     9.93P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         31   50  +10      -3.74    32.41    -6.81    75.36     5.38    17.01     0.01    41.30     9.69P    0.00     0.00  
Woking           32   49  +13      -2.69    37.63     1.03    69.13     5.18    14.15     0.00     8.89     1.51P    0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic   30   49   +9       4.61    71.27     4.42    73.52     5.64    12.79     0.00    28.52     3.99P    0.00     0.00  
Macclesfield     32   47   +9      -1.49    43.06     2.18    68.77     5.16    12.82     0.00     7.34     1.29P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead        29   47   -3       6.36    78.83    -3.93    69.12     5.77    -4.93     0.00     9.34     1.11P    0.00     0.00  
Braintree_Town   27   46  +11       5.94    78.23     6.37    75.07     6.11    15.49     0.06    39.33     6.41P    0.00R    0.00  
Lincoln_City     32   45   +3       1.51    57.49     3.85    63.92     5.16     2.29     0.00     1.12     0.13P    0.00R    0.00  
Wrexham          30   44  +10      -2.41    38.59     2.28    67.67     5.51    12.51     0.00     6.21     1.01P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot        31   41   -7       1.32    57.09    -2.61    60.93     5.29    -7.93     0.00     0.23     0.03P    0.10R    0.00  
Bromley          29   38   -2       2.10    60.61     5.65    60.52     6.01    -3.84     0.00     0.56     0.07P    0.37R    0.01  
Southport        30   38   -9       5.01    74.37     3.27    56.97     5.36   -13.35     0.00     0.02     0.01P    1.06R    0.01  
Barrow           30   37  -16       5.76    76.78     1.35    54.86     5.57   -22.83     0.00     0.01     0.00     3.30R    0.06  
Chester          31   35  -11       0.02    51.15     1.18    53.31     5.24   -14.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.53R    0.16  
Guiseley         30   34  -17       3.49    68.12    -0.47    48.85     5.18   -27.89     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.30R    0.94  
Halifax          30   30  -19      -7.34    18.62   -11.91    48.36     5.46   -25.47     0.00     0.00     0.00    23.72R    1.89  
Altrincham       28   30  -20       3.26    68.49    -1.51    51.02     5.87   -25.51     0.00     0.00     0.00    13.96R    0.89  
Boreham_Wood     29   28   -6      -4.84    27.43     3.26    48.29     5.61    -9.95     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.97R    1.79  
Welling          28   25  -15      -5.28    24.57    -2.95    43.86     5.59   -23.83     0.00     0.00     0.00    54.37R    9.28  
Torquay          29   20  -27     -12.81     4.31   -15.25    42.70     5.82   -28.17     0.00     0.00     0.00    61.92R   13.78  
Kidderminster    28   14  -22     -16.95     0.75   -10.72    34.56     5.77   -28.12     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.39R   71.19