Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Sunday 31 January 2016 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 24 January 2016, Arsenal 0 1 Chelsea; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Leicester        23   47  +16      13.16    96.96    12.68    68.56     5.35    17.23    10.41    29.55    55.57    77.60    94.80     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         23   44  +22      -2.91    31.82    -3.27    74.43     5.08    37.85    53.18    78.67    91.26    97.17    99.75     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          23   44  +15       1.67    59.00    -1.48    72.00     5.15    26.45    27.46    60.39    80.68    92.35    98.94     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        23   42  +22       2.39    63.22     9.63    67.02     5.32    28.69     7.55    23.83    47.72    72.00    92.64     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          23   37   +7      -1.94    38.81    -3.97    62.41     5.27    14.12     1.15     5.39    15.45    31.83    72.13     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham         23   36   +8       3.96    71.80     7.44    57.21     5.33     8.98     0.10     0.82     2.96     8.36    33.34     0.01R    0.00  
Liverpool        23   34   -2      -0.18    49.19    -5.76    57.44     5.41     2.29     0.09     0.63     2.79     8.16    33.09     0.01R    0.00  
Southampton      23   33   +8      -3.39    31.40     0.87    55.91     5.31    11.48     0.04     0.45     1.83     5.56    26.37     0.01R    0.00  
Stoke            23   33   -1       2.86    66.57     0.73    52.86     5.17    -1.94     0.00     0.05     0.27     1.15     9.69     0.07R    0.00  
Watford          23   32   +1       3.89    71.89     6.47    50.50     5.29    -2.24     0.00     0.03     0.17     0.67     4.99     0.32R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   23   31   -3       3.91    72.65     3.49    49.63     5.21    -5.56     0.00     0.01     0.07     0.33     3.28     0.55R    0.00  
Everton          23   29   +6      -5.31    22.47     2.15    53.10     5.38    11.44     0.01     0.08     0.50     2.02    13.43     0.13R    0.00  
Chelsea          23   28   -2     -11.69     4.30   -14.42    54.22     5.35     6.51     0.00     0.10     0.72     2.78    16.98     0.06R    0.00  
West_Brom        23   28   -8       1.64    60.78    -0.64    44.92     5.09   -13.71     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.02     0.38     4.73R    0.07  
Swansea          23   25   -9      -3.32    31.60    -4.16    42.97     5.15   -12.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.14     9.09R    0.23  
Bournemouth      23   25  -11       0.19    52.36     0.69    40.18     5.15   -19.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04    22.88R    0.93  
Norwich          23   23  -15      -0.87    45.97    -1.80    38.65     5.15   -23.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    34.05R    2.29  
Newcastle        23   21  -16      -1.82    40.31    -1.43    36.50     5.01   -24.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    51.45R    4.79  
Sunderland       23   19  -18      -3.68    29.13    -3.06    32.70     4.91   -28.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    79.21R   15.17  
Aston_Villa      23   13  -20      -8.14     9.04    -4.17    26.06     4.71   -31.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.46R   76.51  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 30 January 2016, Bristol_City 0 0 Birmingham; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Hull            28   56  +27       3.87    68.89     7.21    88.95     5.72    39.12    46.27    76.40    99.59    84.94P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough   27   55  +23       7.39    84.25     7.64    88.38     5.94    33.31    38.21    71.07    99.35    80.72P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley         28   51  +21       2.01    59.79     5.19    82.30     5.92    30.70     9.71    29.03    94.54    50.69P    0.00     0.00  
Brighton        28   50   +6      10.31    91.20     3.48    75.16     5.78     7.21     0.73     3.65    61.85    13.95P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           28   49  +14       2.25    61.24     1.22    80.29     5.89    23.85     4.63    16.73    89.53    38.56P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham      29   47   +9       6.84    80.84     8.01    70.59     5.68     9.76     0.09     0.59    32.32     6.04P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed       28   46  +11       5.95    77.99     8.14    71.57     5.86    12.63     0.16     1.08    40.16     8.22P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich         28   45   +2       4.28    70.90    -1.70    71.81     5.90     5.35     0.19     1.15    39.20     8.39P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff         29   44   +5       3.29    66.22     3.09    68.28     5.67     6.56     0.01     0.19    20.01     3.81P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       29   40   +1      -1.27    44.07    -1.32    64.96     5.76     3.55     0.00     0.04     8.54     1.65P    0.01R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   29   39   +5      -2.35    38.62     2.12    62.77     5.64     5.82     0.00     0.01     4.15     0.85P    0.02R    0.00  
Wolverhampton   28   38   -1      -2.74    36.74    -4.71    63.72     5.88     0.68     0.00     0.03     5.84     1.22P    0.02R    0.00  
QPR             29   36   +0      -5.97    23.29    -3.42    61.15     5.80     2.97     0.00     0.01     2.64     0.57P    0.08R    0.00  
Leeds_United    29   36   -4       0.19    51.38     1.11    57.35     5.50    -6.31     0.00     0.00     0.34     0.06P    0.40R    0.01  
Reading         28   35   +1      -1.90    40.46     2.80    58.49     5.82    -0.27     0.00     0.00     0.96     0.16P    0.26R    0.00  
Preston         28   35   -2      -0.89    46.27     0.62    57.98     5.77    -3.75     0.00     0.00     0.66     0.12P    0.34R    0.01  
Huddersfield    29   32   -3      -4.25    29.49     2.54    51.83     5.63    -8.19     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    4.47R    0.24  
Blackburn       27   30   +0      -7.92    14.59    -1.90    55.57     5.93    -0.24     0.00     0.00     0.28     0.05P    1.21R    0.05  
Fulham          28   28   -5      -7.56    16.92     0.21    50.91     5.94    -8.01     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00     7.41R    0.77  
MK_Dons         28   26  -18      -5.18    25.36    -7.52    45.89     5.76   -25.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    29.52R    5.25  
Rotherham       29   25  -18      -4.44    28.69    -1.67    41.26     5.34   -29.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.29R   19.19  
Bristol_City    29   25  -23      -5.44    24.57    -9.15    43.21     5.55   -30.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    48.57R   12.67  
Charlton        29   24  -29      -4.55    27.33   -12.10    40.81     5.32   -38.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    68.23R   24.43  
Bolton          28   20  -22     -10.16     7.98    -9.90    38.69     5.57   -30.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    77.18R   37.37  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 30 January 2016, Blackpool 1 0 Gillingham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Burton_Albion    28   57  +14      15.85    97.53     9.79    83.72     6.05    17.16    27.54    50.46    95.55    59.59P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham       29   54  +19       8.30    84.19     9.93    81.48     5.91    25.35    17.60    38.09    92.37    50.69P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall          27   53  +19       9.70    89.52     9.77    83.73     6.22    25.99    30.19    53.27    95.58    63.86P    0.00     0.00  
Wigan            29   52  +19      -0.86    45.06    -0.43    82.11     5.79    29.12    21.03    43.93    93.98    62.00P    0.00     0.00  
Coventry         29   48  +16       3.07    64.71     8.29    73.82     5.83    19.74     1.62     5.92    57.03    18.11P    0.00R    0.00  
Millwall         28   44   +6       1.11    55.37    -0.75    70.71     6.17     8.95     0.65     2.47    34.75    10.13P    0.02R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd        28   42   +6      -2.06    39.82    -2.52    69.97     6.05    10.90     0.46     1.82    30.74     9.56P    0.03R    0.00  
Peterborough     28   41  +12      -3.19    34.54     3.16    70.62     6.07    19.60     0.53     2.24    36.83    11.69P    0.03R    0.00  
Southend         27   41   +2       6.14    78.40     5.08    66.25     6.23     1.08     0.13     0.53    12.90     2.93P    0.35R    0.00  
Bradford         27   41   -1       4.53    72.43    -0.51    66.99     6.15    -0.74     0.12     0.61    14.91     3.40P    0.21R    0.00  
Port_Vale        29   40   -2       2.77    64.03     1.64    62.93     5.75    -2.60     0.01     0.03     4.10     0.81P    1.08R    0.00  
Barnsley         28   39   +3      -2.30    39.25    -1.17    65.93     6.06     6.38     0.08     0.34    12.50     3.07P    0.32R    0.00  
Scunthorpe       28   38   -4       2.56    63.29     0.68    60.95     5.97    -6.81     0.00     0.03     2.41     0.47P    2.81R    0.00  
Rochdale         27   37   +0       0.04    50.67     0.34    64.60     6.29     2.10     0.03     0.21     9.35     2.14P    0.83R    0.00  
Bury             27   37   -4       3.98    70.12     2.33    59.36     6.23    -9.95     0.00     0.02     1.78     0.29P    5.43R    0.06  
Doncaster        28   36   -3      -2.34    38.76    -2.93    60.11     6.03    -3.80     0.00     0.02     1.95     0.40P    3.44R    0.02  
Swindon          28   35   -4      -6.55    21.02    -8.66    61.09     6.12    -2.07     0.01     0.03     2.83     0.74P    2.89R    0.01  
Blackpool        29   33   -7      -3.71    33.01    -2.98    55.51     5.76    -7.99     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.04P   14.01R    0.23  
Chesterfield     28   30  -10      -7.21    18.11    -7.81    54.78     6.05   -10.10     0.00     0.00     0.18     0.05P   17.47R    0.41  
Shrewsbury       28   29  -14      -4.45    29.21    -6.43    49.67     5.94   -20.17     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.01P   50.70R    2.69  
Fleetwood_Town   27   28   -3      -6.30    20.92     0.91    51.67     6.13    -6.47     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.02P   32.89R    1.28  
Oldham           27   24  -13      -7.74    15.14    -5.14    45.01     5.95   -20.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    77.69R   10.99  
Crewe            28   23  -22      -3.70    32.00    -3.23    40.61     5.60   -33.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.07R   35.84  
Colchester       28   22  -29      -5.51    23.54    -9.34    39.43     5.73   -41.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    95.71R   48.46  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 30 January 2016, AFC_Wimbledon 2 3 Yeovil; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Northampton          27   58  +18      14.99    97.11     8.90    88.39     6.37    24.50    51.99    87.54    99.31    90.30P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth             29   56  +17       8.71    86.13     6.02    84.04     5.78    23.84    21.14    71.23    97.87    78.69P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           27   51  +19       7.75    83.89     9.85    82.20     6.24    26.53    16.49    60.29    95.17    69.56P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       29   47  +10       5.18    73.36     6.66    72.68     5.88    13.51     0.65     8.17    56.26    19.49P    0.00     0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   25   45  +14       8.88    87.57    11.47    75.76     6.84    16.81     3.42    22.59    72.09    32.23P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           26   44  +21       1.62    58.17    10.93    77.00     6.50    29.30     4.78    29.30    80.66    44.38P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield            29   44   +8       5.96    77.20    10.33    65.86     5.71     6.01     0.03     0.80    15.55     3.47P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              27   43   +6       1.75    59.04    -0.31    72.08     6.26    10.46     0.71     7.92    51.14    18.99P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient        29   43   +4      -5.96    23.98    -9.97    71.64     6.01    12.08     0.47     6.65    49.99    20.80P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon        28   42   +7       2.89    64.38     6.05    66.88     6.05     7.25     0.07     1.56    21.43     6.03P    0.00R    0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        29   41   +2       2.78    63.79     4.70    63.02     5.84    -0.14     0.00     0.23     7.18     1.54P    0.01R    0.00  
Exeter               28   40   -1       1.94    59.78    -0.11    64.07     6.12    -2.11     0.02     0.42     9.92     2.28P    0.02R    0.00  
Carlisle             25   39   +3       4.71    73.08     3.53    67.11     6.88     1.36     0.21     2.57    24.13     6.75P    0.02R    0.00  
Notts_County         27   36   -6      -3.24    34.82    -9.23    64.64     6.44    -2.23     0.03     0.60    12.74     3.85P    0.04R    0.01  
Morecambe            28   35   -2      -2.55    37.97    -0.13    59.38     6.08    -2.78     0.00     0.04     2.54     0.60P    0.16R    0.03  
Luton                28   34   +0      -5.61    24.62    -1.79    60.07     6.05     2.04     0.00     0.06     3.16     0.84P    0.19R    0.03  
Crawley_Town         29   34  -14      -3.73    32.89   -10.78    56.46     5.93   -15.43     0.00     0.01     0.55     0.12P    0.93R    0.17  
Barnet               28   33   -8       0.47    53.40     1.32    54.02     6.00   -13.72     0.00     0.00     0.27     0.06P    2.31R    0.52  
Stevenage            29   28  -14     -10.05    10.57   -10.97    49.92     5.87   -16.38     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.01P    7.66R    1.98  
Newport_County       28   27  -11      -6.39    20.92    -3.37    48.49     5.94   -15.84     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   11.72R    3.43  
Hartlepool           25   24  -18      -1.08    45.09    -4.15    44.92     6.23   -30.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    32.98R   14.34  
Yeovil               28   23  -14     -12.14     6.10    -9.33    45.36     6.04   -17.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    25.33R    9.96  
Dag_&_Red            27   20  -20     -10.04     8.86    -8.84    41.11     6.04   -27.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    55.78R   31.38  
York                 27   20  -21     -10.20     8.29   -10.81    40.16     5.97   -29.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.86R   38.16  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 30 January 2016, Aldershot 1 0 Kidderminster; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Forest_Green     31   67  +24      11.75    92.68     4.67    92.19     5.45    31.13    18.60    99.54    38.84P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham       30   66  +38       5.02    73.55     7.41    98.01     5.27    53.42    75.83    99.99    84.94P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          29   55  +36      -3.22    33.03     7.79    86.39     5.63    48.15     5.17    95.76    40.34P    0.00     0.00  
Eastleigh        28   50  +11       5.25    74.39     1.51    78.41     6.02    16.78     0.30    61.47    10.06P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         31   50  +10      -3.75    32.52    -6.81    75.33     5.41    16.92     0.03    41.42     9.77P    0.00     0.00  
Woking           32   49  +13      -2.76    37.27     1.03    69.12     5.16    14.17     0.00     8.99     1.48P    0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic   30   49   +9       4.64    71.35     4.45    73.55     5.64    12.84     0.01    28.51     3.97P    0.00     0.00  
Macclesfield     32   47   +9      -1.54    43.09     2.16    68.74     5.12    12.79     0.00     7.21     1.31P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead        29   47   -3       6.25    78.31    -4.13    69.14     5.76    -4.91     0.00     9.22     1.10P    0.00     0.00  
Braintree_Town   27   46  +11       5.94    78.39     6.37    75.09     6.09    15.51     0.07    39.54     6.89P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City     32   45   +3       1.61    57.98     4.03    63.87     5.13     2.24     0.00     1.10     0.14P    0.00R    0.00  
Wrexham          30   44  +10      -2.29    39.21     2.35    67.66     5.56    12.51     0.00     6.46     1.07P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot        31   41   -7       1.47    57.73    -2.42    60.86     5.31    -8.07     0.00     0.23     0.02P    0.11R    0.00  
Bromley          29   38   -2       2.15    60.79     5.73    60.50     6.04    -3.91     0.00     0.50     0.06P    0.37R    0.01  
Southport        30   38   -9       5.04    74.28     3.31    57.04     5.37   -13.27     0.00     0.03     0.00P    1.10R    0.02  
Barrow           30   37  -16       5.75    76.58     1.38    54.89     5.54   -22.78     0.00     0.02     0.00     3.28R    0.07  
Chester          31   35  -11       0.01    50.95     1.08    53.36     5.26   -14.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.58R    0.14  
Guiseley         30   34  -17       3.35    67.31    -0.69    48.94     5.20   -27.73     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.78R    0.94  
Halifax          30   30  -19      -7.25    18.86   -11.73    48.29     5.47   -25.62     0.00     0.00     0.00    23.99R    1.95  
Altrincham       28   30  -20       3.11    67.72    -1.72    51.10     5.87   -25.44     0.00     0.00     0.00    13.82R    0.91  
Boreham_Wood     29   28   -6      -4.71    27.98     3.35    48.24     5.60   -10.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    22.29R    1.82  
Welling          28   25  -15      -5.34    24.12    -3.06    43.83     5.57   -23.86     0.00     0.00     0.00    54.38R    8.99  
Torquay          29   20  -27     -12.90     4.36   -15.37    42.73     5.81   -28.07     0.00     0.00     0.00    61.75R   13.60  
Kidderminster    28   14  -22     -16.94     0.78   -10.69    34.57     5.71   -28.09     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.54R   71.55