Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 29 January 2016 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 24 January 2016, Arsenal 0 1 Chelsea; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Leicester        23   47  +16      13.18    97.02    12.77    68.56     5.32    17.21    10.17    29.65    55.28    77.25    94.89     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         23   44  +22      -3.03    31.32    -3.45    74.47     5.08    37.97    53.71    79.24    91.51    97.21    99.74     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          23   44  +15       1.83    59.98    -1.22    71.89     5.14    26.28    26.85    59.24    80.13    92.11    98.93     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        23   42  +22       2.36    62.94     9.51    67.05     5.31    28.75     7.80    24.05    47.67    71.92    92.86     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          23   37   +7      -1.97    38.69    -4.03    62.51     5.24    14.23     1.21     5.61    15.88    32.69    72.43     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham         23   36   +8       3.81    71.06     7.23    57.23     5.33     9.02     0.10     0.80     3.07     8.29    33.27     0.00R    0.00  
Liverpool        23   34   -2      -0.11    49.54    -5.68    57.42     5.42     2.27     0.10     0.70     2.77     7.82    32.89     0.01R    0.00  
Southampton      23   33   +8      -3.54    30.41     0.65    56.01     5.29    11.63     0.05     0.45     1.92     5.71    26.77     0.01R    0.00  
Stoke            23   33   -1       2.98    67.47     0.90    52.86     5.18    -1.98     0.00     0.05     0.33     1.33     9.64     0.07R    0.00  
Watford          23   32   +1       3.81    71.40     6.35    50.64     5.27    -2.08     0.00     0.03     0.19     0.68     5.09     0.29R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   23   31   -3       3.93    72.58     3.52    49.54     5.20    -5.66     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.28     3.08     0.57R    0.00  
Everton          23   29   +6      -5.26    22.74     2.21    53.06     5.39    11.38     0.00     0.07     0.51     2.05    13.35     0.11R    0.00  
Chelsea          23   28   -2     -11.56     4.58   -14.26    54.11     5.36     6.32     0.00     0.10     0.66     2.63    16.47     0.08R    0.00  
West_Brom        23   28   -8       1.62    60.70    -0.68    44.95     5.10   -13.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.36     4.81R    0.04  
Swansea          23   25   -9      -3.31    31.96    -4.10    42.92     5.17   -12.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.18     9.49R    0.25  
Bournemouth      23   25  -11       0.21    52.31     0.70    40.18     5.15   -19.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05    22.38R    1.05  
Norwich          23   23  -15      -0.89    46.29    -1.75    38.65     5.18   -23.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    34.45R    2.40  
Newcastle        23   21  -16      -1.88    39.94    -1.57    36.55     5.05   -24.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    50.88R    4.83  
Sunderland       23   19  -18      -3.65    29.12    -3.07    32.69     4.91   -28.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    79.26R   14.62  
Aston_Villa      23   13  -20      -8.08     9.18    -4.03    26.00     4.71   -31.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.59R   76.79  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 26 January 2016, Brentford 1 1 Leeds_United; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Hull            28   56  +27       3.89    69.22     7.22    88.82     5.73    38.95    45.06    75.59    99.57    84.32P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough   27   55  +23       7.40    84.44     7.61    88.43     5.96    33.34    39.06    71.53    99.43    80.83P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley         28   51  +21       2.03    59.81     5.19    82.27     5.93    30.62     9.89    28.89    94.47    50.83P    0.00     0.00  
Brighton        28   50   +6      10.23    91.16     3.35    75.23     5.77     7.34     0.75     3.64    62.69    14.18P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           28   49  +14       2.19    60.82     1.04    80.31     5.93    23.86     4.72    16.97    89.42    38.74P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed       28   46  +11       5.89    77.64     8.06    71.53     5.83    12.56     0.15     1.02    40.39     8.31P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham      28   46   +9       7.04    82.02     7.82    71.26     5.90    10.14     0.17     1.00    37.16     7.13P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich         28   45   +2       4.40    71.40    -1.50    71.73     5.89     5.27     0.17     1.14    38.89     8.33P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff         28   41   +4       2.03    60.42     2.56    66.50     5.91     5.32     0.01     0.13    13.70     2.64P    0.00R    0.00  
Brentford       29   40   +1      -1.42    43.29    -1.45    65.07     5.76     3.72     0.00     0.05     8.85     1.70P    0.02R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   29   39   +5      -2.43    38.26     1.99    62.74     5.63     5.80     0.00     0.00     4.21     0.78P    0.02R    0.00  
Wolverhampton   28   38   -1      -2.64    37.14    -4.56    63.62     5.85     0.53     0.00     0.03     5.70     1.17P    0.03R    0.00  
QPR             29   36   +0      -6.11    22.80    -3.58    61.37     5.78     3.31     0.00     0.00     2.92     0.59P    0.07R    0.00  
Leeds_United    29   36   -4       0.32    52.15     1.29    57.32     5.47    -6.40     0.00     0.00     0.32     0.04P    0.40R    0.01  
Reading         28   35   +1      -1.94    40.48     2.80    58.52     5.79    -0.20     0.00     0.00     0.97     0.16P    0.31R    0.01  
Preston         28   35   -2      -0.97    45.45     0.48    58.18     5.78    -3.48     0.00     0.00     0.81     0.15P    0.30R    0.01  
Huddersfield    28   32   -2      -3.11    34.60     3.06    53.36     5.85    -6.89     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.02P    2.95R    0.11  
Blackburn       27   30   +0      -7.95    14.57    -1.95    55.54     5.94    -0.26     0.00     0.00     0.35     0.08P    1.45R    0.04  
Fulham          28   28   -5      -7.24    18.05     0.77    50.74     5.93    -8.26     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P    7.95R    0.70  
MK_Dons         28   26  -18      -5.02    26.14    -7.29    45.77     5.73   -25.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    31.17R    4.61  
Rotherham       28   25  -15      -3.85    31.09    -0.10    43.50     5.63   -24.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    45.70R    9.42  
Bristol_City    28   24  -23      -5.31    24.53    -9.25    43.49     5.76   -31.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    48.45R   10.86  
Charlton        28   21  -32      -5.32    22.95   -13.76    38.19     5.44   -43.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    82.96R   41.44  
Bolton          28   20  -22     -10.12     8.13    -9.79    38.70     5.56   -30.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.22R   32.79  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 26 January 2016, Blackpool 0 0 Sheff_Utd; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Burton_Albion    27   57  +15      16.85    98.45    10.25    85.35     6.31    18.53    33.84    57.23    96.62    64.90P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham       28   54  +20       9.43    87.88    10.54    83.04     6.13    26.70    22.41    44.81    94.16    55.86P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall          27   53  +19       9.72    89.57     9.74    83.67     6.17    25.93    25.78    48.82    95.05    60.40P    0.00     0.00  
Wigan            28   49  +16      -1.27    43.19    -1.64    80.70     6.00    26.37    12.75    30.74    89.04    51.18P    0.00     0.00  
Coventry         28   48  +17       4.29    70.32     8.99    76.05     6.07    22.01     3.24    10.49    69.04    24.44P    0.00R    0.00  
Millwall         27   43   +6       1.90    59.23    -0.11    72.04     6.33    10.43     1.00     3.39    41.32    12.47P    0.02R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd        28   42   +6      -2.11    39.60    -2.51    70.00     6.08    10.99     0.39     1.58    29.12     8.72P    0.03R    0.00  
Peterborough     28   41  +12      -3.10    35.19     3.26    70.63     6.13    19.61     0.37     1.74    35.12    10.86P    0.03R    0.00  
Southend         27   41   +2       6.05    78.19     4.92    66.38     6.19     1.25     0.09     0.39    11.88     2.49P    0.32R    0.00  
Port_Vale        28   40   +1       2.78    64.10     2.73    64.08     5.95     0.09     0.02     0.10     6.04     1.19P    0.65R    0.00  
Bradford         26   38   -2       3.39    68.04    -0.76    65.31     6.30    -1.80     0.06     0.28     9.36     2.05P    0.63R    0.00  
Bury             27   37   -4       4.03    70.11     2.37    59.40     6.22    -9.88     0.00     0.02     1.66     0.28P    4.95R    0.03  
Barnsley         27   36   +2      -3.56    32.81    -1.61    63.82     6.30     4.57     0.03     0.18     7.07     1.79P    0.89R    0.00  
Doncaster        28   36   -3      -2.18    39.58    -2.65    60.08     6.05    -3.86     0.00     0.02     1.75     0.37P    3.30R    0.03  
Swindon          27   35   -3      -5.74    23.61    -8.58    63.16     6.37    -0.03     0.01     0.10     5.69     1.42P    1.52R    0.01  
Scunthorpe       27   35   -5       0.81    54.82    -0.50    58.58     6.16    -8.97     0.00     0.01     1.04     0.20P    6.32R    0.03  
Rochdale         26   34   -1      -1.26    44.00    -0.11    62.76     6.52     0.82     0.02     0.10     5.54     1.27P    1.88R    0.02  
Blackpool        28   30   -8      -4.98    26.82    -3.35    53.50     6.02    -9.60     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.02P   22.25R    0.67  
Chesterfield     28   30  -10      -7.24    18.43    -7.87    54.75     6.08   -10.15     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.05P   16.85R    0.41  
Shrewsbury       28   29  -14      -4.50    29.13    -6.44    49.61     5.95   -20.28     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   49.21R    2.53  
Fleetwood_Town   26   28   -2      -5.52    23.51     1.08    53.05     6.35    -5.41     0.00     0.00     0.18     0.04P   24.50R    0.82  
Oldham           27   24  -13      -7.42    16.20    -4.73    44.77     5.92   -20.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    77.49R   11.10  
Crewe            27   22  -22      -3.71    31.31    -3.76    40.22     5.78   -34.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    93.74R   38.26  
Colchester       28   22  -29      -5.49    23.84    -9.24    39.45     5.72   -41.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    95.39R   46.08  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 26 January 2016, Leyton_Orient 1 0 Newport_County; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Northampton          27   58  +18      14.95    97.15     8.86    88.49     6.33    24.62    48.40    86.97    99.38    89.73P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth             28   56  +18       9.96    89.88     6.82    85.64     5.98    25.19    27.67    76.71    98.65    82.57P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           27   51  +19       7.64    83.67     9.69    82.22     6.27    26.56    14.51    58.00    94.95    67.65P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       28   47  +11       6.18    77.81     7.23    74.41     6.14    14.99     1.19    12.40    66.36    25.16P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           26   44  +21       1.62    58.09    10.96    77.04     6.50    29.31     4.21    27.40    80.76    42.43P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient        28   43   +6      -5.15    26.53    -8.79    74.05     6.18    15.71     1.20    12.56    65.18    30.27P    0.00     0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   24   42  +13       7.56    84.43    11.01    74.02     7.08    15.63     2.13    15.15    62.43    24.37P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon        27   42   +8       4.13    70.21     6.83    68.53     6.27     8.67     0.16     2.75    29.66     8.47P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield            28   41   +7       4.66    72.58     9.88    63.90     5.89     4.50     0.01     0.38     9.59     2.06P    0.00R    0.00  
Wycombe              26   40   +5       0.14    50.85    -1.24    70.22     6.47     9.17     0.36     4.66    39.39    13.66P    0.00R    0.00  
Carlisle             25   39   +3       4.84    73.95     3.72    66.98     6.81     1.14     0.14     2.10    22.57     5.95P    0.00R    0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        28   38   +0       1.40    57.51     3.03    60.67     6.03    -3.30     0.00     0.06     3.71     0.77P    0.06R    0.01  
Exeter               27   37   -3       1.01    55.54    -1.03    62.50     6.27    -4.00     0.00     0.20     6.60     1.47P    0.03R    0.01  
Morecambe            27   35   -1      -1.28    44.07     0.66    61.11     6.38    -1.26     0.01     0.16     5.15     1.28P    0.13R    0.03  
Luton                27   34   +2      -4.81    27.34    -0.63    61.89     6.29     4.69     0.01     0.19     6.49     1.79P    0.06R    0.00  
Crawley_Town         28   34  -13      -2.91    36.54   -10.53    58.09     6.13   -14.08     0.00     0.02     1.35     0.30P    0.39R    0.06  
Notts_County         26   33   -8      -4.07    30.74    -9.94    62.37     6.66    -5.24     0.01     0.30     7.42     2.01P    0.14R    0.02  
Barnet               28   33   -8       0.51    53.37     1.37    54.00     5.98   -13.78     0.00     0.00     0.24     0.04P    1.71R    0.32  
Stevenage            28   28  -13      -8.73    13.67   -10.13    51.64     6.09   -14.85     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.02P    4.15R    0.98  
Newport_County       27   24  -12      -7.73    15.52    -3.94    46.38     6.11   -17.62     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   17.47R    5.36  
Hartlepool           24   24  -16      -0.52    48.41    -3.36    46.44     6.45   -27.81     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00    21.33R    7.87  
Yeovil               27   20  -15     -13.44     3.75    -9.99    43.26     6.20   -18.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    33.91R   13.77  
Dag_&_Red            27   20  -20     -10.26     8.44    -9.07    41.24     6.06   -27.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   49.80R   24.49  
York                 26   17  -22     -11.64     5.00   -11.41    38.07     6.14   -31.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    70.80R   47.09  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 26 January 2016, Altrincham 3 1 Woking; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Forest_Green     30   64  +23      10.69    91.29     4.56    90.77     5.69    30.40    16.15    98.96    36.46P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham       29   63  +35       4.79    72.66     6.85    97.05     5.49    51.53    71.12    99.97    82.38P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          28   55  +37      -1.85    39.36     8.59    88.56     5.78    50.37    12.10    97.87    46.16P    0.00     0.00  
Eastleigh        27   49  +11       5.81    77.01     1.76    78.98     6.26    17.05     0.54    65.40    10.84P    0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic   30   49   +9       4.48    70.44     4.20    73.54     5.65    12.83     0.02    29.28     4.03P    0.00     0.00  
Woking           31   48  +13      -2.06    40.47     1.57    70.39     5.36    15.60     0.00    14.43     2.31P    0.00     0.00  
Macclesfield     31   47  +10      -0.46    47.82     2.72    69.86     5.35    13.44     0.00    11.55     1.81P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         30   47   +9      -4.90    27.50    -7.13    74.46     5.58    17.13     0.02    36.52     8.81P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead        28   44   -4       4.86    73.19    -4.69    66.76     5.95    -7.13     0.00     5.32     0.59P    0.00R    0.00  
Wrexham          29   43  +10      -2.08    40.04     2.17    67.82     5.74    12.13     0.00     7.73     1.26P    0.00R    0.00  
Braintree_Town   26   43   +9       5.27    76.32     5.69    73.53     6.30    13.63     0.05    31.02     5.11P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City     31   42   +2       0.44    52.46     3.78    62.73     5.36     1.95     0.00     0.82     0.08P    0.03R    0.00  
Bromley          28   38   +1       2.12    60.49     6.11    61.40     6.19    -1.79     0.00     0.93     0.12P    0.34R    0.01  
Aldershot        30   38   -8       0.19    51.47    -2.81    59.54     5.53    -8.65     0.00     0.15     0.02P    0.46R    0.01  
Southport        30   38   -9       4.89    73.76     3.07    57.05     5.34   -13.26     0.00     0.03     0.00P    1.22R    0.03  
Barrow           29   36  -16       5.96    77.92     1.04    54.37     5.70   -24.31     0.00     0.01     0.00     5.01R    0.18  
Chester          30   35   -9       0.50    53.27     1.79    54.52     5.47   -13.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P    3.56R    0.14  
Guiseley         29   34  -16       3.84    69.23    -0.96    49.95     5.42   -27.35     0.00     0.00     0.00P   17.51R    0.98  
Altrincham       28   30  -20       3.19    68.22    -1.56    50.98     5.87   -25.62     0.00     0.00     0.00    15.51R    1.30  
Halifax          29   29  -19      -6.60    20.89   -11.34    49.07     5.70   -24.97     0.00     0.00     0.00    22.86R    2.30  
Boreham_Wood     29   28   -6      -4.82    27.62     3.25    48.31     5.59    -9.88     0.00     0.00     0.00    23.72R    2.26  
Welling          27   24  -15      -5.05    24.73    -3.12    43.82     5.77   -24.47     0.00     0.00     0.00    57.16R   12.13  
Torquay          28   20  -26     -11.98     5.41   -15.21    43.41     5.97   -28.22     0.00     0.00     0.00    59.94R   14.51  
Kidderminster    27   14  -21     -16.04     0.93   -10.32    35.77     5.93   -27.39     0.00     0.00     0.00    92.67R   66.15