Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 28 January 2016 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 24 January 2016, Arsenal 0 1 Chelsea; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Leicester        23   47  +16      13.16    96.94    12.66    68.63     5.34    17.30    10.56    29.96    56.04    77.40    94.85     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         23   44  +22      -3.02    31.32    -3.45    74.47     5.10    37.95    53.61    79.16    91.48    97.17    99.73     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          23   44  +15       1.67    59.09    -1.48    71.96     5.14    26.45    27.07    59.97    80.57    92.44    98.92     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        23   42  +22       2.48    63.67     9.77    66.96     5.32    28.61     7.41    23.41    47.17    71.66    92.75     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          23   37   +7      -2.02    38.26    -4.08    62.49     5.21    14.20     1.07     5.36    15.27    32.16    72.54     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham         23   36   +8       3.82    71.02     7.28    57.22     5.34     8.96     0.09     0.78     3.03     8.34    33.21     0.00R    0.00  
Liverpool        23   34   -2      -0.12    49.40    -5.64    57.39     5.42     2.23     0.09     0.64     2.75     7.82    32.38     0.01R    0.00  
Southampton      23   33   +8      -3.62    30.34     0.56    56.02     5.33    11.68     0.07     0.45     1.93     5.81    27.14     0.01R    0.00  
Stoke            23   33   -1       2.93    67.07     0.83    52.89     5.18    -1.92     0.01     0.07     0.29     1.31     9.69     0.07R    0.00  
Watford          23   32   +1       3.92    71.70     6.51    50.56     5.30    -2.15     0.00     0.04     0.20     0.72     5.16     0.28R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   23   31   -3       4.00    73.27     3.63    49.59     5.18    -5.61     0.00     0.01     0.06     0.29     3.10     0.62R    0.00  
Everton          23   29   +6      -5.37    22.29     2.06    53.13     5.39    11.47     0.00     0.08     0.51     2.07    13.46     0.12R    0.00  
Chelsea          23   28   -2     -11.63     4.42   -14.38    54.16     5.39     6.39     0.01     0.09     0.69     2.80    16.53     0.06R    0.00  
West_Brom        23   28   -8       1.66    60.63    -0.57    44.94     5.10   -13.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.37     4.87R    0.05  
Swansea          23   25   -9      -3.24    32.01    -4.05    42.89     5.17   -12.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.13     9.60R    0.28  
Bournemouth      23   25  -11       0.27    52.82     0.83    40.13     5.11   -20.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    22.60R    0.98  
Norwich          23   23  -15      -0.86    45.98    -1.71    38.62     5.18   -23.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    34.18R    2.30  
Newcastle        23   21  -16      -1.90    40.12    -1.63    36.55     5.01   -24.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    50.55R    4.97  
Sunderland       23   19  -18      -3.60    29.61    -2.95    32.62     4.93   -29.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    79.49R   15.35  
Aston_Villa      23   13  -20      -8.17     8.97    -4.16    26.05     4.72   -31.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.53R   76.07  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 26 January 2016, Brentford 1 1 Leeds_United; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Hull            28   56  +27       3.80    68.63     7.08    88.89     5.72    39.03    45.28    75.74    99.59    84.55P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough   27   55  +23       7.21    83.76     7.41    88.54     5.90    33.47    39.27    72.30    99.48    81.58P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley         28   51  +21       2.10    60.14     5.34    82.22     5.93    30.53     9.57    28.65    94.39    50.85P    0.00     0.00  
Brighton        28   50   +6      10.33    91.19     3.50    75.18     5.74     7.27     0.72     3.55    62.25    13.98P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           28   49  +14       2.21    60.95     1.11    80.27     5.91    23.85     4.65    16.41    89.55    37.96P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed       28   46  +11       5.92    77.56     8.13    71.56     5.83    12.62     0.14     1.10    40.40     8.33P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham      28   46   +9       7.20    82.57     8.04    71.22     5.91    10.09     0.17     1.05    37.29     7.20P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich         28   45   +2       4.31    71.12    -1.58    71.76     5.89     5.26     0.19     1.04    39.24     8.19P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff         28   41   +4       1.91    59.86     2.41    66.53     5.89     5.39     0.01     0.10    13.80     2.67P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       29   40   +1      -1.27    43.99    -1.29    65.02     5.76     3.68     0.00     0.02     8.63     1.56P    0.01R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   29   39   +5      -2.42    38.31     2.02    62.74     5.62     5.79     0.00     0.01     4.32     0.86P    0.02R    0.00  
Wolverhampton   28   38   -1      -2.75    36.36    -4.76    63.63     5.87     0.55     0.00     0.01     5.82     1.19P    0.02R    0.00  
QPR             29   36   +0      -5.96    23.17    -3.40    61.27     5.78     3.17     0.00     0.01     2.70     0.59P    0.07R    0.00  
Leeds_United    29   36   -4       0.34    52.59     1.26    57.35     5.52    -6.31     0.00     0.00     0.36     0.05P    0.43R    0.01  
Reading         28   35   +1      -1.94    40.63     2.75    58.52     5.79    -0.22     0.00     0.01     1.02     0.22P    0.32R    0.00  
Preston         28   35   -2      -0.82    46.33     0.67    58.06     5.77    -3.64     0.00     0.00     0.71     0.11P    0.34R    0.01  
Huddersfield    28   32   -2      -3.14    34.51     3.09    53.32     5.81    -6.95     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.02P    3.04R    0.14  
Blackburn       27   30   +0      -7.84    14.94    -1.77    55.42     5.91    -0.45     0.00     0.00     0.30     0.06P    1.41R    0.04  
Fulham          28   28   -5      -7.38    17.31     0.54    50.86     5.92    -8.07     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P    7.66R    0.66  
MK_Dons         28   26  -18      -5.03    25.87    -7.35    45.85     5.73   -25.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    30.84R    4.57  
Rotherham       28   25  -15      -4.05    29.82    -0.39    43.56     5.58   -24.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    45.58R    9.12  
Bristol_City    28   24  -23      -5.24    24.87    -9.16    43.49     5.74   -31.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    48.46R   10.49  
Charlton        28   21  -32      -5.31    23.04   -13.76    38.20     5.45   -43.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    83.02R   41.82  
Bolton          28   20  -22     -10.15     8.18    -9.87    38.66     5.56   -30.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.77R   33.15  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 26 January 2016, Blackpool 0 0 Sheff_Utd; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Burton_Albion    27   57  +15      16.83    98.40    10.23    85.33     6.25    18.49    33.69    57.52    96.69    64.96P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham       28   54  +20       9.48    88.07    10.61    83.04     6.14    26.70    22.67    44.81    94.06    56.06P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall          27   53  +19       9.69    89.42     9.73    83.72     6.22    26.00    26.10    49.12    95.04    60.52P    0.00     0.00  
Wigan            28   49  +16      -1.09    44.17    -1.43    80.57     5.99    26.21    12.09    29.64    88.68    50.12P    0.00     0.00  
Coventry         28   48  +17       4.02    68.90     8.64    76.17     6.06    22.22     3.41    10.74    69.66    24.96P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         27   43   +6       1.80    58.86    -0.27    72.06     6.40    10.51     1.06     3.65    41.08    12.65P    0.01R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd        28   42   +6      -2.13    39.67    -2.61    70.06     6.05    11.02     0.35     1.49    29.05     8.77P    0.04R    0.00  
Peterborough     28   41  +12      -3.16    34.48     3.17    70.71     6.14    19.73     0.45     1.87    35.45    10.76P    0.03R    0.00  
Southend         27   41   +2       6.15    78.45     5.14    66.34     6.20     1.14     0.09     0.41    11.81     2.45P    0.27R    0.00  
Port_Vale        28   40   +1       2.90    64.58     2.82    64.17     5.97     0.19     0.01     0.08     6.24     1.30P    0.61R    0.00  
Bradford         26   38   -2       3.47    68.19    -0.70    65.31     6.35    -1.80     0.05     0.28     9.62     2.18P    0.55R    0.00  
Bury             27   37   -4       3.77    68.90     2.01    59.48     6.21    -9.75     0.00     0.02     1.62     0.27P    4.83R    0.04  
Barnsley         27   36   +2      -3.72    32.01    -1.81    63.81     6.31     4.57     0.02     0.18     7.02     1.82P    0.87R    0.00  
Doncaster        28   36   -3      -2.31    38.90    -2.92    60.16     6.01    -3.75     0.00     0.01     1.66     0.37P    3.21R    0.02  
Swindon          27   35   -3      -5.63    23.98    -8.44    63.09     6.33    -0.17     0.01     0.07     5.37     1.33P    1.51R    0.01  
Scunthorpe       27   35   -5       1.04    56.08    -0.14    58.46     6.13    -9.16     0.00     0.00     1.08     0.18P    6.53R    0.04  
Rochdale         26   34   -1      -1.27    43.93    -0.16    62.75     6.51     0.79     0.01     0.09     5.45     1.20P    1.76R    0.02  
Blackpool        28   30   -8      -4.99    27.12    -3.39    53.48     6.03    -9.60     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.02P   22.70R    0.68  
Chesterfield     28   30  -10      -7.04    19.14    -7.53    54.62     6.06   -10.34     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.04P   17.09R    0.45  
Shrewsbury       28   29  -14      -4.40    29.33    -6.35    49.53     5.92   -20.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    49.70R    2.62  
Fleetwood_Town   26   28   -2      -5.42    23.62     1.22    53.09     6.29    -5.38     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.03P   23.95R    0.76  
Oldham           27   24  -13      -7.46    15.85    -4.76    44.84     5.94   -20.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    77.10R   10.92  
Crewe            27   22  -22      -3.70    31.45    -3.71    40.18     5.78   -34.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    93.84R   38.31  
Colchester       28   22  -29      -5.56    23.67    -9.33    39.47     5.72   -41.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    95.39R   46.11  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 26 January 2016, Leyton_Orient 1 0 Newport_County; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Northampton          27   58  +18      14.91    97.08     8.80    88.41     6.39    24.55    48.09    86.37    99.29    89.28P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth             28   56  +18      10.01    89.74     6.87    85.66     6.01    25.24    28.01    77.18    98.73    82.97P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           27   51  +19       7.73    83.82     9.78    82.17     6.24    26.48    14.52    57.96    95.08    67.74P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       28   47  +11       6.38    78.38     7.47    74.33     6.15    14.90     1.21    12.50    65.63    24.65P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           26   44  +21       1.51    57.54    10.79    77.07     6.53    29.35     4.23    27.86    80.79    43.16P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient        28   43   +6      -5.13    26.20    -8.82    74.08     6.14    15.74     1.23    12.26    65.35    30.12P    0.00     0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   24   42  +13       7.57    84.63    11.00    73.95     7.04    15.51     1.95    14.88    61.99    24.22P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon        27   42   +8       4.10    69.94     6.75    68.52     6.23     8.64     0.20     2.64    29.51     7.95P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield            28   41   +7       4.63    72.25     9.81    63.90     5.90     4.57     0.01     0.34     9.67     1.98P    0.01R    0.00  
Wycombe              26   40   +5       0.14    51.16    -1.24    70.27     6.46     9.25     0.40     4.83    39.93    13.96P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle             25   39   +3       4.72    73.34     3.49    67.00     6.87     1.19     0.13     2.21    23.13     6.29P    0.00R    0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        28   38   +0       1.43    57.58     3.10    60.63     6.02    -3.37     0.00     0.09     3.59     0.73P    0.06R    0.00  
Exeter               27   37   -3       1.24    56.66    -0.64    62.32     6.28    -4.27     0.01     0.21     6.22     1.36P    0.05R    0.01  
Morecambe            27   35   -1      -1.34    43.75     0.58    61.20     6.32    -1.06     0.00     0.17     5.25     1.31P    0.07R    0.01  
Luton                27   34   +2      -4.85    27.10    -0.73    61.87     6.36     4.65     0.01     0.20     6.58     1.82P    0.07R    0.00  
Crawley_Town         28   34  -13      -2.89    36.70   -10.52    58.11     6.19   -14.01     0.00     0.02     1.42     0.36P    0.43R    0.04  
Notts_County         26   33   -8      -3.97    31.02    -9.75    62.30     6.68    -5.38     0.01     0.26     7.45     2.03P    0.12R    0.01  
Barnet               28   33   -8       0.53    53.65     1.45    54.04     6.02   -13.70     0.00     0.00     0.27     0.05P    1.81R    0.33  
Stevenage            28   28  -13      -8.78    13.50   -10.20    51.70     6.08   -14.81     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.02P    4.16R    0.97  
Newport_County       27   24  -12      -7.75    15.52    -3.95    46.45     6.12   -17.50     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   16.96R    5.28  
Hartlepool           24   24  -16      -0.60    47.85    -3.43    46.48     6.45   -27.75     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00    21.07R    7.61  
Yeovil               27   20  -15     -13.61     3.42   -10.13    43.34     6.23   -18.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    33.62R   13.79  
Dag_&_Red            27   20  -20     -10.25     8.51    -9.10    41.25     6.08   -27.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    50.09R   24.54  
York                 26   17  -22     -11.63     5.08   -11.38    38.02     6.12   -31.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.47R   47.42  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 26 January 2016, Altrincham 3 1 Woking; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Forest_Green     30   64  +23      10.74    91.16     4.58    90.78     5.65    30.44    16.02    99.09    36.31P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham       29   63  +35       4.88    73.28     6.96    97.01     5.43    51.47    70.89    99.97    82.01P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          28   55  +37      -1.95    38.78     8.47    88.57     5.83    50.40    12.43    97.85    46.51P    0.00     0.00  
Eastleigh        27   49  +11       5.76    76.67     1.69    79.04     6.23    17.12     0.58    65.50    10.67P    0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic   30   49   +9       4.63    71.18     4.36    73.48     5.61    12.73     0.00    29.11     4.08P    0.00     0.00  
Woking           31   48  +13      -2.28    39.38     1.24    70.49     5.36    15.73     0.00    14.63     2.47P    0.00     0.00  
Macclesfield     31   47  +10      -0.61    47.05     2.51    69.89     5.35    13.46     0.00    11.42     1.96P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         30   47   +9      -4.86    27.68    -6.96    74.41     5.60    17.07     0.02    36.50     8.79P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead        28   44   -4       4.86    73.26    -4.75    66.78     5.92    -7.09     0.00     5.22     0.68P    0.00R    0.00  
Wrexham          29   43  +10      -2.05    40.04     2.17    67.82     5.73    12.16     0.00     7.61     1.26P    0.00R    0.00  
Braintree_Town   26   43   +9       5.20    75.89     5.62    73.53     6.31    13.64     0.05    31.01     5.02P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City     31   42   +2       0.38    52.33     3.65    62.76     5.34     2.00     0.00     0.93     0.11P    0.02R    0.00  
Bromley          28   38   +1       2.25    61.24     6.33    61.33     6.21    -1.92     0.00     0.98     0.11P    0.35R    0.01  
Aldershot        30   38   -8       0.29    52.38    -2.68    59.46     5.53    -8.75     0.00     0.13     0.01P    0.44R    0.01  
Southport        30   38   -9       4.91    74.09     3.11    57.02     5.36   -13.31     0.00     0.03     0.00P    1.23R    0.04  
Barrow           29   36  -16       5.91    77.54     0.87    54.45     5.77   -24.26     0.00     0.02     0.00     4.98R    0.19  
Chester          30   35   -9       0.54    53.43     1.88    54.51     5.45   -12.99     0.00     0.01     0.00     3.83R    0.11  
Guiseley         29   34  -16       4.00    70.43    -0.69    49.82     5.38   -27.56     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.30R    1.00  
Altrincham       28   30  -20       3.17    67.87    -1.61    51.05     5.89   -25.52     0.00     0.00     0.00    15.27R    1.25  
Halifax          29   29  -19      -6.63    20.50   -11.41    49.12     5.69   -24.88     0.00     0.00     0.00    22.64R    2.27  
Boreham_Wood     29   28   -6      -4.77    28.03     3.33    48.32     5.62    -9.90     0.00     0.00     0.00    23.86R    2.27  
Welling          27   24  -15      -5.03    24.87    -3.13    43.85     5.81   -24.41     0.00     0.00     0.00    56.95R   12.05  
Torquay          28   20  -26     -12.10     5.15   -15.29    43.44     5.97   -28.20     0.00     0.00     0.00    59.67R   14.50  
Kidderminster    27   14  -21     -16.03     1.01   -10.24    35.72     5.97   -27.43     0.00     0.00     0.00    92.45R   66.31