Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Monday 25 January 2016 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 24 January 2016, Arsenal 0 1 Chelsea; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Leicester        23   47  +16      13.20    97.01    12.76    68.63     5.32    17.29    10.65    29.80    55.85    77.66    94.92     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         23   44  +22      -2.96    31.84    -3.33    74.45     5.09    37.86    53.20    79.02    91.34    97.09    99.68     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          23   44  +15       1.65    58.90    -1.50    71.99     5.13    26.42    27.14    59.89    80.38    92.29    98.90     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        23   42  +22       2.44    63.65     9.69    66.95     5.35    28.58     7.58    23.62    47.07    71.24    92.46     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          23   37   +7      -2.00    38.55    -4.09    62.54     5.25    14.29     1.19     5.53    15.73    32.76    72.55     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham         23   36   +8       3.86    71.21     7.30    57.25     5.32     9.04     0.07     0.73     3.06     8.27    33.22     0.00R    0.00  
Liverpool        23   34   -2      -0.09    49.73    -5.56    57.39     5.44     2.20     0.09     0.69     2.88     7.86    32.42     0.01R    0.00  
Southampton      23   33   +8      -3.60    30.16     0.56    56.03     5.32    11.67     0.05     0.44     1.93     5.76    26.94     0.00R    0.00  
Stoke            23   33   -1       2.89    66.62     0.72    52.89     5.20    -1.95     0.01     0.05     0.35     1.37     9.76     0.09R    0.00  
Watford          23   32   +1       3.98    71.98     6.60    50.52     5.29    -2.23     0.00     0.02     0.18     0.63     5.15     0.29R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   23   31   -3       3.93    72.82     3.52    49.62     5.21    -5.58     0.00     0.01     0.06     0.31     3.25     0.57R    0.00  
Everton          23   29   +6      -5.36    22.28     2.06    53.10     5.38    11.44     0.00     0.09     0.53     2.05    13.56     0.11R    0.00  
Chelsea          23   28   -2     -11.66     4.37   -14.39    54.18     5.36     6.41     0.01     0.10     0.63     2.68    16.62     0.08R    0.00  
West_Brom        23   28   -8       1.62    60.59    -0.68    44.95     5.12   -13.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.37     4.99R    0.05  
Swansea          23   25   -9      -3.24    32.38    -4.04    42.90     5.18   -12.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.15     9.53R    0.26  
Bournemouth      23   25  -11       0.14    52.04     0.62    40.17     5.15   -19.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05    22.46R    0.96  
Norwich          23   23  -15      -0.79    46.77    -1.60    38.56     5.12   -23.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    34.61R    2.28  
Newcastle        23   21  -16      -1.95    39.40    -1.68    36.59     5.03   -24.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    50.42R    4.77  
Sunderland       23   19  -18      -3.63    29.44    -2.99    32.64     4.90   -29.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    79.27R   15.20  
Aston_Villa      23   13  -20      -8.06     9.26    -3.97    26.00     4.70   -31.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.56R   76.47  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 25 January 2016, Burnley 4 1 Derby; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Hull            28   56  +27       3.88    68.69     7.19    88.87     5.75    39.04    45.32    75.81    99.57    84.52P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough   27   55  +23       7.35    84.11     7.52    88.46     5.95    33.37    38.90    71.38    99.44    80.82P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley         28   51  +21       1.93    59.40     5.03    82.33     5.94    30.73     9.79    29.12    94.23    51.03P    0.00     0.00  
Brighton        28   50   +6      10.21    91.14     3.32    75.28     5.77     7.40     0.84     3.83    62.01    14.24P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           28   49  +14       2.28    61.07     1.21    80.22     5.93    23.75     4.68    16.50    88.65    37.96P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed       28   46  +11       5.90    77.77     8.08    71.58     5.86    12.62     0.12     1.07    39.71     8.09P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham      28   46   +9       7.05    82.00     7.83    71.25     5.88    10.14     0.14     1.00    36.25     7.03P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich         28   45   +2       4.26    70.78    -1.67    71.77     5.92     5.29     0.20     1.04    38.56     8.14P    0.00R    0.00  
Cardiff         28   41   +4       1.86    59.78     2.36    66.56     5.94     5.40     0.02     0.16    13.65     2.67P    0.00R    0.00  
Brentford       28   39   +1      -0.74    46.75    -1.05    65.92     5.94     4.43     0.00     0.07    11.36     2.16P    0.01R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   28   38   +5      -1.90    40.65     2.27    63.28     5.88     6.00     0.00     0.01     5.43     1.09P    0.02R    0.00  
Wolverhampton   28   38   -1      -2.68    36.88    -4.64    63.65     5.84     0.55     0.00     0.02     5.42     1.06P    0.03R    0.00  
Reading         28   35   +1      -1.89    40.96     2.81    58.51     5.79    -0.23     0.00     0.00     0.85     0.15P    0.29R    0.00  
QPR             28   35   +0      -5.64    24.20    -3.42    61.39     6.04     2.86     0.00     0.00     3.37     0.79P    0.10R    0.00  
Preston         28   35   -2      -0.83    46.41     0.70    58.05     5.79    -3.69     0.00     0.00     0.66     0.10P    0.33R    0.00  
Leeds_United    28   35   -4       0.50    53.46     0.99    57.13     5.69    -7.27     0.00     0.00     0.43     0.08P    0.58R    0.01  
Huddersfield    28   32   -2      -3.12    34.89     3.10    53.33     5.83    -6.92     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.01P    3.05R    0.13  
Blackburn       27   30   +0      -7.94    14.51    -1.91    55.54     5.88    -0.28     0.00     0.00     0.28     0.07P    1.33R    0.03  
Fulham          28   28   -5      -7.57    16.57     0.27    50.96     5.89    -7.92     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.01P    7.32R    0.63  
MK_Dons         28   26  -18      -5.03    25.70    -7.23    45.84     5.70   -25.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    30.37R    4.48  
Rotherham       28   25  -15      -3.81    31.18    -0.01    43.45     5.60   -24.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    46.28R    9.42  
Bristol_City    28   24  -23      -5.15    25.26    -8.93    43.33     5.76   -31.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    49.56R   11.46  
Charlton        28   21  -32      -5.44    22.49   -13.94    38.32     5.47   -42.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    82.43R   40.60  
Bolton          28   20  -22     -10.20     7.91    -9.88    38.70     5.56   -30.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.29R   33.23  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 23 January 2016, Barnsley 6 1 Rochdale; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Gillingham       28   54  +20       9.44    87.89    10.54    83.14     6.17    26.89    26.17    48.21    93.61    58.45P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion    26   54  +14      15.54    97.91     9.68    83.07     6.50    16.58    24.06    44.70    91.61    53.81P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall          27   53  +19       9.71    89.51     9.70    83.73     6.15    26.01    28.86    51.37    94.69    62.18P    0.00     0.00  
Wigan            28   49  +16      -0.92    45.19    -1.14    80.45     6.03    26.01    13.67    31.43    86.98    50.53P    0.00     0.00  
Coventry         28   48  +17       4.18    69.62     8.89    76.03     6.05    21.99     3.60    11.13    66.53    24.53P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         27   43   +6       1.66    58.05    -0.48    72.17     6.34    10.65     1.22     4.11    39.56    12.70P    0.02R    0.00  
Peterborough     27   41  +13      -2.18    38.97     3.51    72.72     6.31    21.75     1.38     4.91    46.03    16.22P    0.02R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd        27   41   +6      -1.69    41.41    -2.56    70.63     6.31    11.38     0.68     2.40    31.04     9.82P    0.03R    0.00  
Southend         27   41   +2       6.05    77.75     5.01    66.39     6.22     1.28     0.11     0.43    11.02     2.40P    0.39R    0.00  
Bradford         25   38   -1       4.49    73.37    -0.15    67.11     6.56    -0.25     0.16     0.80    14.41     3.50P    0.38R    0.00  
Port_Vale        27   37   +0       1.36    57.81     2.02    62.14     6.19    -1.36     0.01     0.08     3.41     0.71P    1.88R    0.01  
Doncaster        27   36   -2      -1.16    44.48    -2.23    62.00     6.26    -2.10     0.01     0.06     3.33     0.75P    2.04R    0.00  
Bury             26   36   -4       4.45    72.14     2.62    60.37     6.44    -9.07     0.01     0.05     2.27     0.40P    4.41R    0.02  
Swindon          27   35   -3      -5.59    24.08    -8.31    63.01     6.34    -0.27     0.02     0.10     4.89     1.38P    1.65R    0.00  
Scunthorpe       27   35   -5       0.94    55.26    -0.28    58.47     6.15    -9.17     0.00     0.00     0.92     0.16P    6.74R    0.03  
Rochdale         26   34   -1      -1.35    43.28    -0.24    62.80     6.53     0.85     0.03     0.12     5.23     1.24P    1.98R    0.01  
Barnsley         26   33   +1      -5.00    26.19    -2.29    61.89     6.49     3.05     0.01     0.09     3.99     1.10P    2.38R    0.02  
Chesterfield     28   30  -10      -7.15    18.55    -7.74    54.73     6.08   -10.15     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.03P   17.67R    0.37  
Blackpool        27   29   -8      -4.72    27.67    -3.40    53.66     6.21    -9.97     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.04P   23.26R    0.59  
Shrewsbury       27   29  -13      -3.46    33.44    -5.85    51.49     6.16   -18.57     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P   37.59R    1.28  
Fleetwood_Town   26   28   -2      -5.56    23.25     1.04    53.18     6.31    -5.23     0.00     0.00     0.18     0.04P   24.51R    0.64  
Colchester       28   22  -29      -5.54    23.52    -9.27    39.44     5.72   -41.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    95.60R   42.24  
Oldham           26   21  -14      -8.80    11.08    -5.18    42.67     6.08   -22.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.66R   18.12  
Crewe            26   21  -22      -3.62    31.43    -3.90    40.08     5.97   -35.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    93.80R   36.65  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 23 January 2016, Bristol_Rovers 1 1 Plymouth; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Northampton          27   58  +18      14.97    97.18     8.92    88.44     6.34    24.57    48.24    86.79    99.41    89.63P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth             28   56  +18      10.00    89.63     6.89    85.70     5.96    25.25    28.38    77.79    98.64    83.38P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           27   51  +19       7.78    84.07     9.91    82.15     6.24    26.47    14.30    57.96    95.12    67.87P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       28   47  +11       6.33    78.37     7.37    74.35     6.14    14.92     1.21    12.83    66.41    25.20P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           26   44  +21       1.49    57.58    10.80    77.05     6.50    29.33     4.16    27.81    81.31    43.12P    0.00     0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   24   42  +13       7.41    83.86    10.76    74.17     7.04    15.84     2.12    15.72    63.41    25.35P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon        27   42   +8       3.97    69.68     6.61    68.59     6.24     8.76     0.17     2.67    30.88     8.42P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient        27   40   +5      -6.25    21.87    -9.08    73.01     6.39    15.66     0.92    10.45    59.50    27.18P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              26   40   +5       0.27    51.63    -1.02    70.12     6.49     8.99     0.34     4.52    39.74    13.49P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle             25   39   +3       4.90    74.13     3.83    66.90     6.81     1.03     0.13     2.07    22.98     5.99P    0.01R    0.00  
Mansfield            27   38   +6       3.15    66.45     9.01    61.95     6.10     3.04     0.01     0.21     6.25     1.30P    0.04R    0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        28   38   +0       1.63    58.36     3.40    60.52     5.98    -3.55     0.00     0.09     3.58     0.78P    0.05R    0.01  
Exeter               27   37   -3       1.20    56.48    -0.75    62.40     6.30    -4.13     0.00     0.20     6.69     1.58P    0.06R    0.00  
Morecambe            26   35   +0      -0.04    50.38     1.47    62.84     6.55     0.31     0.01     0.41     9.05     2.17P    0.05R    0.00  
Luton                27   34   +2      -4.92    26.96    -0.77    61.88     6.28     4.68     0.00     0.15     6.75     1.78P    0.05R    0.01  
Crawley_Town         28   34  -13      -3.25    35.10   -11.10    58.37     6.18   -13.64     0.00     0.03     1.68     0.36P    0.40R    0.06  
Notts_County         26   33   -8      -4.21    30.12   -10.13    62.53     6.68    -5.05     0.01     0.31     8.18     2.31P    0.13R    0.02  
Barnet               28   33   -8       0.55    53.72     1.49    53.91     5.98   -13.88     0.00     0.00     0.28     0.06P    1.90R    0.38  
Stevenage            28   28  -13      -8.90    12.98   -10.32    51.68     6.10   -14.81     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.02P    4.19R    1.02  
Newport_County       26   24  -11      -6.84    18.21    -3.68    47.24     6.35   -17.48     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   15.10R    4.66  
Hartlepool           24   24  -16      -0.43    48.89    -3.11    46.32     6.47   -28.06     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.01P   21.99R    8.11  
Yeovil               27   20  -15     -13.53     3.69   -10.02    43.27     6.21   -18.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    34.36R   13.73  
Dag_&_Red            27   20  -20     -10.23     8.80    -9.03    41.20     6.07   -27.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    50.83R   24.94  
York                 26   17  -22     -11.66     4.85   -11.45    38.11     6.11   -31.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    70.85R   47.06  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 24 January 2016, Dover_Athletic 1 2 Cheltenham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Cheltenham       29   63  +35       4.75    72.64     6.77    97.06     5.46    51.45    73.54    99.97    83.79P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     29   61  +22       9.67    89.18     4.34    89.60     5.84    30.09    12.82    98.03    33.78P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          28   55  +37      -1.79    39.74     8.72    88.48     5.83    50.22    12.94    97.52    46.30P    0.00     0.00  
Eastleigh        27   49  +11       5.82    77.05     1.75    78.87     6.24    16.86     0.58    63.49    10.36P    0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic   30   49   +9       4.65    71.37     4.42    73.44     5.61    12.69     0.02    27.54     4.01P    0.00     0.00  
Woking           30   48  +15      -1.38    43.31     2.44    72.79     5.59    19.23     0.03    26.36     4.86P    0.00     0.00  
Macclesfield     31   47  +10      -0.49    47.70     2.69    69.94     5.33    13.51     0.00    10.77     1.83P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         30   47   +9      -4.87    27.36    -7.00    74.39     5.58    17.04     0.02    34.73     8.38P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead        28   44   -4       4.85    73.30    -4.69    66.81     5.94    -7.06     0.01     4.99     0.62P    0.00R    0.00  
Wrexham          28   43  +11      -1.04    44.95     2.63    69.30     5.92    13.32     0.00    11.88     2.04P    0.00R    0.00  
Lincoln_City     31   42   +2       0.33    51.92     3.57    62.75     5.40     2.02     0.00     0.88     0.09P    0.03R    0.00  
Braintree_Town   25   40   +8       3.79    69.96     4.95    71.92     6.53    12.70     0.04    22.66     3.83P    0.00     0.00  
Bromley          28   38   +1       2.20    61.08     6.30    61.35     6.17    -1.93     0.00     0.88     0.09P    0.28R    0.01  
Aldershot        30   38   -8       0.28    51.96    -2.72    59.50     5.53    -8.70     0.00     0.15     0.02P    0.36R    0.01  
Southport        29   38   -8       5.86    78.11     3.59    57.98     5.55   -12.97     0.00     0.11     0.01P    0.79R    0.02  
Barrow           29   36  -16       6.11    78.62     1.21    54.25     5.71   -24.59     0.00     0.01     0.00     4.71R    0.19  
Chester          30   35   -9       0.28    52.20     1.49    54.64     5.47   -12.79     0.00     0.01     0.00     3.06R    0.09  
Guiseley         29   34  -16       3.97    70.27    -0.79    49.93     5.44   -27.38     0.00     0.00     0.00    16.36R    0.99  
Halifax          29   29  -19      -6.66    20.48   -11.38    49.17     5.69   -24.80     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.86R    2.26  
Boreham_Wood     29   28   -6      -4.79    27.77     3.31    48.36     5.64    -9.83     0.00     0.00     0.00    22.24R    2.27  
Altrincham       27   27  -22       1.91    62.04    -3.00    48.33     6.04   -29.18     0.00     0.00     0.00    27.81R    3.65  
Welling          27   24  -15      -5.16    24.43    -3.22    43.96     5.79   -24.25     0.00     0.00     0.00    54.10R   11.26  
Torquay          28   20  -26     -11.98     5.32   -15.12    43.40     5.99   -28.28     0.00     0.00     0.00    57.86R   14.24  
Kidderminster    27   14  -21     -16.05     0.96   -10.29    35.78     5.95   -27.38     0.00     0.00     0.00    91.53R   65.00