Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 22 January 2016 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 18 January 2016, Swansea 1 0 Watford; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Arsenal          22   44  +16       2.96    66.75    -0.73    74.02     5.35    28.48    35.99    73.81    89.09    95.82    99.51     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        22   44  +13      12.68    96.73    11.37    66.60     5.53    13.60     4.63    17.00    41.49    64.55    89.76     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         22   43  +22      -2.31    34.75    -2.94    75.40     5.25    38.81    53.54    83.26    93.78    97.84    99.75     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        22   39  +20       1.49    58.11     8.78    65.29     5.55    26.48     3.57    14.31    36.59    59.82    87.61     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          22   37   +8      -0.83    44.91    -3.35    64.48     5.42    16.12     2.07     9.78    28.54    50.41    82.91     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham         22   35   +8       4.00    72.51     6.93    57.12     5.50     8.25     0.14     0.80     3.70     9.53    34.26     0.00R    0.00  
Stoke            22   33   +2       3.29    69.37     2.37    54.53     5.38     1.52     0.01     0.18     1.19     3.66    17.80     0.03R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   22   31   -1       4.58    76.26     4.39    50.98     5.39    -3.53     0.00     0.02     0.22     0.90     6.13     0.37R    0.00  
Liverpool        22   31   -3      -1.20    43.13    -5.85    55.94     5.62     1.51     0.02     0.34     2.03     6.02    25.37     0.05R    0.00  
Southampton      22   30   +7      -5.09    22.68    -0.23    53.76     5.49     9.77     0.01     0.16     1.05     3.41    16.88     0.08R    0.00  
Everton          22   29   +7      -3.91    28.19     3.11    55.28     5.58    13.63     0.02     0.29     1.77     5.84    25.41     0.07R    0.00  
Watford          22   29   +0       2.92    67.33     6.46    49.10     5.51    -2.89     0.00     0.01     0.12     0.49     3.89     1.09R    0.01  
West_Brom        22   27   -8       2.16    63.92    -0.35    45.84     5.32   -13.01     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.08     0.73     4.50R    0.09  
Chelsea          22   25   -3     -13.01     2.59   -15.00    51.94     5.58     4.50     0.00     0.04     0.44     1.62     9.79     0.37R    0.00  
Bournemouth      22   24  -11       0.51    54.03     0.67    40.40     5.37   -20.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07    24.47R    1.28  
Norwich          22   23  -14       0.09    51.98    -1.88    39.83     5.35   -22.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05    28.67R    1.69  
Swansea          22   22  -10      -4.87    23.27    -5.02    40.45     5.33   -15.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07    22.24R    1.12  
Newcastle        22   21  -15      -1.04    45.00    -1.40    37.66     5.24   -23.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    44.21R    3.78  
Sunderland       22   18  -18      -3.39    29.96    -3.07    33.22     5.16   -28.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    76.31R   13.62  
Aston_Villa      22   12  -20      -8.03     8.50    -4.26    25.87     4.85   -32.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.53R   78.41  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 16 January 2016, Blackburn 0 1 Brighton; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Middlesbrough   26   55  +24       8.73    89.04     8.52    90.72     6.12    35.62    53.43    81.83    99.77    87.78P    0.00     0.00  
Hull            27   53  +26       2.73    63.74     6.78    87.79     5.94    38.87    33.30    68.94    99.22    79.81P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           27   49  +17       2.56    63.15     2.70    81.82     6.08    27.09     6.98    24.42    93.06    45.83P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley         27   48  +18       1.86    59.22     4.41    80.16     6.17    26.93     5.09    17.90    88.95    40.40P    0.00     0.00  
Brighton        27   47   +5       9.25    89.20     3.22    73.81     6.00     6.64     0.47     2.45    53.09    11.52P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed       27   45  +11       6.15    79.12     7.93    71.84     6.06    12.49     0.20     1.35    42.71     8.90P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich         27   45   +5       4.73    73.05    -0.01    73.57     6.13     8.96     0.43     2.30    52.76    12.37P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham      27   43   +6       6.39    80.50     6.25    69.14     6.09     6.45     0.07     0.48    25.80     4.57P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff         27   40   +4       2.61    63.77     2.93    67.61     6.07     6.43     0.03     0.23    18.86     3.79P    0.01R    0.00  
Wolverhampton   27   37   -1      -2.45    37.88    -4.81    63.68     6.10     0.06     0.00     0.04     6.55     1.32P    0.04R    0.00  
Brentford       27   36   -1      -1.72    41.71    -2.07    63.62     6.12     1.42     0.00     0.03     6.72     1.23P    0.05R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   27   35   +4      -3.69    31.46     1.12    60.82     6.02     3.85     0.00     0.01     2.93     0.64P    0.18R    0.00  
Preston         27   35   +0      -0.33    48.96     1.45    60.13     5.99    -0.63     0.00     0.01     2.04     0.38P    0.20R    0.00  
Reading         27   34   +1      -1.36    43.26     3.07    58.92     6.00    -0.18     0.00     0.00     1.48     0.29P    0.33R    0.01  
QPR             27   34   +0      -5.38    24.46    -3.54    62.25     6.20     3.52     0.00     0.01     4.91     0.99P    0.10R    0.00  
Huddersfield    27   32   -1      -2.31    38.28     3.23    54.40     6.01    -6.31     0.00     0.00     0.22     0.04P    2.42R    0.04  
Leeds_United    27   32   -5      -0.73    46.94     0.63    56.00     5.90    -7.47     0.00     0.00     0.31     0.04P    1.44R    0.05  
Blackburn       26   29   +0      -7.60    14.99    -1.95    56.25     6.16     0.22     0.00     0.00     0.52     0.08P    1.51R    0.04  
Fulham          27   28   -4      -6.63    19.73     0.63    51.85     6.11    -7.68     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.01P    6.54R    0.42  
MK_Dons         27   26  -16      -4.42    28.66    -6.53    47.38     5.94   -22.82     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   23.37R    2.48  
Rotherham       27   24  -15      -3.62    31.50    -0.44    43.09     5.70   -25.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    51.12R    9.17  
Bristol_City    27   24  -22      -4.37    28.40    -8.84    44.56     5.98   -30.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    42.68R    7.15  
Charlton        27   20  -32      -5.08    23.59   -13.91    38.23     5.65   -43.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    83.36R   36.64  
Bolton          27   17  -24     -11.01     5.53   -10.76    36.79     5.70   -33.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.66R   44.00  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 19 January 2016, Colchester 1 1 Fleetwood_Town; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Burton_Albion    25   54  +15      16.75    98.76    10.49    85.38     6.70    18.90    31.27    53.00    94.60    61.13P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall          26   52  +19      10.39    91.42    10.24    84.72     6.39    26.89    28.99    51.53    94.76    62.07P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham       27   51  +19       8.16    85.00    10.08    81.65     6.39    26.04    15.01    32.73    88.19    45.18P    0.00     0.00  
Coventry         27   48  +20       4.76    73.07    10.65    78.20     6.26    26.23     5.95    16.25    75.58    30.93P    0.00     0.00  
Wigan            27   48  +16      -0.50    46.99    -1.13    81.88     6.24    27.65    15.34    34.50    89.30    53.62P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough     26   41  +14      -1.21    43.43     3.84    74.12     6.52    22.75     1.96     6.30    52.48    18.66P    0.01R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd        26   40   +6      -1.23    43.43    -2.42    71.48     6.50    12.09     0.71     2.57    33.61    10.41P    0.03R    0.00  
Millwall         26   40   +5       0.43    52.24    -0.87    70.14     6.56     9.03     0.44     1.73    26.53     7.60P    0.06R    0.00  
Southend         26   38   -1       5.59    76.88     3.74    63.76     6.45    -3.21     0.02     0.13     5.44     1.06P    1.08R    0.01  
Bradford         24   37   -1       4.69    74.53    -0.41    67.42     6.71    -0.31     0.20     0.72    14.26     3.50P    0.32R    0.00  
Port_Vale        26   36   +0       1.91    60.33     2.27    62.42     6.35    -1.50     0.01     0.04     3.45     0.65P    1.64R    0.01  
Doncaster        26   35   -2      -0.89    45.68    -2.37    62.30     6.49    -2.23     0.01     0.05     3.58     0.79P    1.96R    0.02  
Rochdale         25   34   +4      -1.63    41.85     2.10    65.18     6.70     7.42     0.06     0.29     9.57     2.36P    0.73R    0.00  
Swindon          26   34   -3      -5.31    24.87    -8.50    63.02     6.49    -0.86     0.01     0.10     4.61     1.20P    1.56R    0.01  
Bury             25   33   -5       3.06    66.41     2.09    58.56     6.66   -10.40     0.00     0.02     1.27     0.22P    7.43R    0.13  
Scunthorpe       26   32   -8       0.57    54.04    -1.32    56.85     6.39   -12.18     0.00     0.00     0.49     0.10P   10.78R    0.27  
Barnsley         25   30   -4      -4.87    26.26    -4.54    59.19     6.71    -3.67     0.01     0.03     1.55     0.34P    5.79R    0.09  
Chesterfield     27   30   -9      -6.14    21.86    -7.32    56.49     6.28    -8.54     0.00     0.00     0.39     0.10P   10.71R    0.25  
Blackpool        26   28   -8      -4.67    27.53    -3.79    53.34     6.46   -11.00     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.03P   23.88R    1.03  
Fleetwood_Town   25   27   -2      -5.07    24.85     1.30    53.55     6.51    -5.27     0.00     0.01     0.17     0.05P   21.34R    0.80  
Shrewsbury       26   26  -14      -4.97    26.27    -6.66    48.87     6.31   -21.01     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.01P   52.12R    4.23  
Colchester       27   22  -26      -5.34    24.11    -8.33    40.97     5.96   -38.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    91.38R   34.46  
Oldham           25   21  -13      -7.86    13.55    -4.77    44.54     6.33   -21.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    75.45R   13.58  
Crewe            25   20  -22      -3.58    31.39    -4.36    39.52     6.09   -37.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    93.72R   45.13  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 19 January 2016, Accrington_Stanley 3 1 Hartlepool; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Plymouth             27   55  +18      10.25    90.89     6.75    86.20     6.23    25.50    34.77    78.53    98.50    83.81P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton          26   55  +16      14.18    96.85     8.16    86.71     6.56    22.42    37.88    79.44    98.30    83.64P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           26   48  +18       6.32    79.45     9.15    80.27     6.46    25.14    10.84    45.03    90.06    57.07P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       27   46  +11       6.38    78.98     6.99    74.58     6.34    14.77     1.85    14.24    65.58    26.32P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           25   44  +22       2.52    62.77    11.20    78.86     6.71    30.97     8.45    38.29    85.92    52.24P    0.00     0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   23   42  +14       8.61    88.20    11.48    75.84     7.26    17.32     4.15    22.29    70.29    31.98P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              25   40   +7       0.84    54.46    -0.22    71.98     6.67    11.72     1.03     8.53    49.20    19.50P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon        26   39   +6       3.04    65.56     5.69    66.29     6.49     5.70     0.07     1.58    19.12     5.38P    0.01R    0.00  
Mansfield            26   38   +8       3.94    70.14    10.21    63.53     6.35     5.31     0.03     0.52    10.06     2.35P    0.01R    0.00  
Carlisle             24   38   +3       5.41    76.63     4.02    67.74     7.03     1.71     0.23     3.07    25.85     7.38P    0.01R    0.00  
Leyton_Orient        26   37   +3      -7.09    18.18    -9.87    70.92     6.64    12.93     0.60     6.32    44.60    19.14P    0.00R    0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        27   37   +0       1.93    60.17     3.31    61.51     6.25    -2.70     0.01     0.20     5.03     1.14P    0.06R    0.01  
Morecambe            25   35   +2       0.53    53.19     2.12    64.46     6.81     2.67     0.06     0.94    13.48     3.62P    0.02R    0.00  
Exeter               26   34   -4      -0.35    48.80    -1.59    60.51     6.52    -5.63     0.00     0.13     4.20     0.92P    0.13R    0.02  
Crawley_Town         27   34  -12      -1.82    41.36    -9.98    59.86     6.38   -12.43     0.00     0.06     2.81     0.67P    0.22R    0.03  
Notts_County         25   33   -6      -3.23    34.21    -8.74    64.38     6.83    -2.21     0.04     0.74    12.76     3.77P    0.05R    0.01  
Barnet               27   32   -8       0.75    54.85     1.36    54.10     6.23   -14.33     0.00     0.00     0.36     0.05P    1.75R    0.35  
Luton                26   31   +0      -5.87    22.56    -1.79    59.96     6.50     2.21     0.00     0.08     3.71     1.01P    0.16R    0.02  
Stevenage            27   27  -13      -8.41    14.09   -10.10    52.47     6.32   -14.25     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.02P    3.11R    0.72  
Newport_County       25   23  -11      -6.38    19.16    -3.52    47.76     6.49   -17.30     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   12.95R    4.02  
Hartlepool           23   23  -16      -0.24    49.98    -3.36    46.26     6.64   -28.81     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   21.10R    7.88  
Dag_&_Red            26   19  -20      -9.83     9.03    -9.01    41.34     6.28   -28.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   47.27R   22.86  
Yeovil               26   17  -16     -14.87     1.90   -10.58    41.40     6.42   -20.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    44.58R   20.23  
York                 25   16  -22     -11.51     4.81   -11.70    38.07     6.34   -32.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    68.57R   43.85  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 16 January 2016, Lincoln_City 0 1 Forest_Green; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Cheltenham       28   60  +34       3.60    67.67     6.52    95.78     5.68    51.05    72.34    99.84    82.98P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     28   58  +21       8.42    86.19     3.81    88.27     6.06    29.58    13.17    95.61    33.50P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          27   52  +32      -1.60    40.66     6.70    87.22     5.97    45.80    12.84    95.27    44.58P    0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic   29   49  +10       5.37    74.74     4.40    74.51     5.81    13.27     0.08    31.08     4.53P    0.00     0.00  
Eastleigh        26   48  +11       6.19    78.95     1.70    79.73     6.44    17.64     1.31    65.10    11.92P    0.00     0.00  
Woking           29   47  +15      -0.61    46.79     3.00    74.03     5.79    20.68     0.06    30.58     5.91P    0.00     0.00  
Macclesfield     30   47  +12       0.20    50.91     3.65    72.29     5.57    16.93     0.03    19.26     3.73P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         29   44   +8      -5.96    22.98    -7.26    73.08     5.85    16.55     0.04    24.19     6.29P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City     30   42   +4       1.04    55.29     4.57    64.03     5.57     3.85     0.00     1.34     0.20P    0.02R    0.00  
Gateshead        27   41   -6       3.89    69.45    -5.67    64.53     6.15   -10.13     0.00     2.31     0.29P    0.06R    0.00  
Wrexham          27   40   +9      -1.70    41.45     2.06    67.50     6.16    11.05     0.01     6.69     1.10P    0.00R    0.00  
Braintree_Town   24   40   +9       4.63    74.24     5.24    73.29     6.69    13.68     0.12    27.06     4.76P    0.00     0.00  
Bromley          27   38   +2       2.95    64.64     6.26    62.66     6.42    -1.02     0.00     1.50     0.21P    0.24R    0.01  
Southport        28   37   -8       6.05    79.03     3.54    58.17     5.77   -13.31     0.00     0.12     0.01P    1.05R    0.05  
Aldershot        29   35  -10      -1.04    45.29    -4.19    57.12     5.70   -11.80     0.00     0.03     0.01P    1.66R    0.08  
Chester          29   34   -9       1.03    56.10     2.20    55.16     5.72   -12.62     0.00     0.02     0.00P    3.34R    0.24  
Barrow           28   33  -17       4.75    73.64     0.75    52.19     5.95   -26.29     0.00     0.01     0.00    11.79R    1.16  
Guiseley         28   31  -17       2.60    64.32    -1.10    47.52     5.56   -29.75     0.00     0.00     0.00    32.76R    5.17  
Halifax          28   28  -19      -6.57    20.47   -11.92    48.70     5.87   -26.34     0.00     0.00     0.00    25.94R    4.16  
Boreham_Wood     28   27   -6      -4.74    27.67     2.94    48.49     5.85   -10.14     0.00     0.00     0.00    23.85R    3.58  
Altrincham       26   27  -17       1.52    59.93    -1.14    49.54     6.20   -24.49     0.00     0.00     0.00    22.79R    3.72  
Welling          26   24  -14      -3.84    30.29    -2.38    45.57     6.05   -22.89     0.00     0.00     0.00    44.25R   10.90  
Torquay          27   20  -24     -11.21     6.39   -14.11    45.26     6.21   -25.54     0.00     0.00     0.00    46.29R   12.35  
Kidderminster    26   14  -20     -14.89     1.43    -9.55    37.60     6.19   -25.78     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.96R   58.59