Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 21 January 2016 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 18 January 2016, Swansea 1 0 Watford; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Arsenal          22   44  +16       3.09    67.37    -0.53    73.99     5.37    28.45    36.17    73.70    88.64    95.70    99.51     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        22   44  +13      12.61    96.84    11.29    66.65     5.54    13.65     4.85    17.35    42.02    64.73    89.77     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         22   43  +22      -2.19    35.45    -2.68    75.29     5.32    38.64    52.83    82.63    93.17    97.58    99.76     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        22   39  +20       1.54    58.65     8.87    65.29     5.53    26.48     3.65    14.41    36.69    59.85    87.48     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          22   37   +8      -0.83    44.80    -3.39    64.52     5.48    16.20     2.30    10.15    28.92    50.70    82.88     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham         22   35   +8       4.08    72.84     7.03    57.05     5.46     8.17     0.11     0.71     3.49     9.36    33.49     0.01R    0.00  
Stoke            22   33   +2       3.31    69.31     2.40    54.49     5.42     1.47     0.02     0.16     1.20     3.74    17.84     0.06R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   22   31   -1       4.59    76.48     4.37    50.99     5.43    -3.53     0.00     0.02     0.25     0.92     6.40     0.45R    0.00  
Liverpool        22   31   -3      -1.18    43.27    -5.79    55.99     5.63     1.54     0.03     0.39     2.19     6.17    25.55     0.06R    0.00  
Southampton      22   30   +7      -5.05    22.35    -0.12    53.74     5.49     9.73     0.01     0.17     0.97     3.37    16.98     0.08R    0.00  
Everton          22   29   +7      -4.03    27.88     2.96    55.30     5.58    13.72     0.02     0.26     1.93     5.81    25.64     0.06R    0.00  
Watford          22   29   +0       2.76    66.47     6.25    49.19     5.48    -2.78     0.00     0.01     0.12     0.51     3.90     1.02R    0.01  
West_Brom        22   27   -8       2.32    65.12    -0.09    45.68     5.28   -13.26     0.00     0.01     0.02     0.06     0.70     4.81R    0.08  
Chelsea          22   25   -3     -13.23     2.42   -15.31    51.95     5.57     4.56     0.00     0.04     0.38     1.49     9.89     0.39R    0.00  
Bournemouth      22   24  -11       0.49    54.17     0.64    40.43     5.37   -20.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.08    24.45R    1.26  
Norwich          22   23  -14       0.03    51.24    -2.02    39.91     5.38   -22.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04    28.29R    1.76  
Swansea          22   22  -10      -4.94    22.86    -5.16    40.51     5.33   -15.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06    21.66R    1.00  
Newcastle        22   21  -15      -1.00    45.21    -1.34    37.63     5.24   -23.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    44.53R    3.73  
Sunderland       22   18  -18      -3.31    30.83    -3.01    33.17     5.18   -28.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    76.56R   13.88  
Aston_Villa      22   12  -20      -8.07     8.72    -4.38    25.90     4.90   -32.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.57R   78.27  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 16 January 2016, Blackburn 0 1 Brighton; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Middlesbrough   26   55  +24       8.80    89.04     8.61    90.72     6.17    35.60    54.20    81.86    99.68    87.82P    0.00     0.00  
Hull            27   53  +26       2.77    63.65     6.92    87.68     5.92    38.67    32.51    68.39    99.19    79.72P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           27   49  +17       2.59    63.22     2.71    81.84     6.08    27.10     7.06    24.64    92.86    46.02P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley         27   48  +18       1.69    58.53     4.15    80.28     6.12    27.11     5.05    18.20    89.26    40.45P    0.00     0.00  
Brighton        27   47   +5       9.08    88.99     3.02    73.94     5.91     6.86     0.44     2.44    53.81    11.62P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed       27   45  +11       6.18    79.33     7.98    71.85     6.03    12.50     0.18     1.28    42.89     8.85P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich         27   45   +5       4.65    72.82    -0.14    73.62     6.10     9.06     0.47     2.43    52.76    12.39P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham      27   43   +6       6.44    80.52     6.33    69.16     6.10     6.46     0.06     0.44    25.54     4.40P    0.00R    0.00  
Cardiff         27   40   +4       2.62    63.99     2.90    67.63     6.09     6.48     0.02     0.22    18.74     3.73P    0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton   27   37   -1      -2.35    38.23    -4.70    63.57     6.05    -0.06     0.00     0.05     6.15     1.24P    0.03R    0.00  
Brentford       27   36   -1      -1.70    41.74    -2.03    63.62     6.13     1.43     0.00     0.03     6.61     1.28P    0.05R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   27   35   +4      -3.58    32.27     1.25    60.73     6.02     3.75     0.00     0.00     2.74     0.51P    0.16R    0.00  
Preston         27   35   +0      -0.26    49.42     1.52    60.09     6.02    -0.67     0.00     0.01     2.11     0.38P    0.21R    0.00  
Reading         27   34   +1      -1.50    42.77     2.85    59.02     6.04    -0.05     0.00     0.00     1.57     0.27P    0.36R    0.00  
QPR             27   34   +0      -5.39    24.54    -3.60    62.22     6.26     3.48     0.00     0.02     5.00     1.14P    0.11R    0.00  
Huddersfield    27   32   -1      -2.25    38.83     3.31    54.39     6.04    -6.31     0.00     0.00     0.25     0.05P    2.54R    0.07  
Leeds_United    27   32   -5      -0.65    47.25     0.76    55.92     5.86    -7.59     0.00     0.00     0.29     0.03P    1.38R    0.03  
Blackburn       26   29   +0      -7.46    15.64    -1.71    56.17     6.13     0.10     0.00     0.00     0.50     0.09P    1.49R    0.06  
Fulham          27   28   -4      -6.63    19.78     0.59    51.87     6.10    -7.66     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.01P    6.43R    0.43  
MK_Dons         27   26  -16      -4.37    28.48    -6.47    47.38     5.92   -22.83     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    23.63R    2.58  
Rotherham       27   24  -15      -3.81    30.50    -0.72    43.17     5.78   -25.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    50.61R    9.03  
Bristol_City    27   24  -22      -4.40    28.50    -8.85    44.60     5.98   -30.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    42.62R    6.97  
Charlton        27   20  -32      -5.12    23.25   -13.94    38.20     5.62   -43.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    83.42R   36.05  
Bolton          27   17  -24     -11.00     5.44   -10.75    36.71     5.70   -33.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.94R   44.77  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 19 January 2016, Colchester 1 1 Fleetwood_Town; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Burton_Albion    25   54  +15      16.70    98.67    10.39    85.47     6.70    19.04    31.66    53.94    94.83    61.87P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall          26   52  +19      10.40    91.61    10.20    84.78     6.36    26.96    29.19    51.87    95.13    62.87P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham       27   51  +19       8.12    84.88     9.98    81.67     6.37    26.08    15.22    33.12    88.24    45.74P    0.00     0.00  
Coventry         27   48  +20       4.68    72.48    10.52    78.19     6.24    26.25     5.58    15.93    75.91    30.69P    0.00     0.00  
Wigan            27   48  +16      -0.29    47.96    -0.82    81.74     6.25    27.44    15.09    33.41    89.11    52.37P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough     26   41  +14      -1.06    44.53     4.10    73.95     6.51    22.48     1.76     5.90    51.20    17.78P    0.00R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd        26   40   +6      -1.20    43.87    -2.39    71.42     6.46    12.03     0.66     2.55    33.33    10.50P    0.03R    0.00  
Millwall         26   40   +5       0.15    50.83    -1.28    70.28     6.58     9.26     0.52     1.89    27.14     7.84P    0.06R    0.00  
Southend         26   38   -1       5.53    76.86     3.65    63.77     6.43    -3.19     0.02     0.12     5.32     0.99P    1.12R    0.00  
Bradford         24   37   -1       4.77    75.08    -0.22    67.28     6.75    -0.46     0.17     0.69    14.09     3.29P    0.35R    0.00  
Port_Vale        26   36   +0       2.00    60.80     2.44    62.36     6.30    -1.58     0.01     0.04     3.43     0.71P    1.66R    0.01  
Doncaster        26   35   -2      -0.92    45.62    -2.34    62.27     6.46    -2.24     0.01     0.08     3.65     0.84P    1.92R    0.01  
Rochdale         25   34   +4      -1.69    41.59     2.06    65.24     6.73     7.55     0.07     0.34    10.06     2.55P    0.82R    0.01  
Swindon          26   34   -3      -5.33    25.02    -8.54    62.99     6.58    -0.87     0.02     0.09     4.85     1.26P    1.72R    0.01  
Bury             25   33   -5       3.17    66.79     2.26    58.45     6.66   -10.59     0.00     0.02     1.10     0.17P    7.73R    0.12  
Scunthorpe       26   32   -8       0.47    53.32    -1.47    56.93     6.36   -12.09     0.00     0.00     0.48     0.08P   10.57R    0.21  
Barnsley         25   30   -4      -4.95    25.89    -4.69    59.22     6.70    -3.55     0.01     0.01     1.50     0.34P    5.72R    0.10  
Chesterfield     27   30   -9      -6.10    21.73    -7.20    56.43     6.28    -8.69     0.00     0.00     0.34     0.07P   10.98R    0.26  
Blackpool        26   28   -8      -4.57    28.01    -3.64    53.37     6.41   -10.99     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.01P   23.49R    0.99  
Fleetwood_Town   25   27   -2      -5.23    24.17     1.06    53.65     6.50    -5.16     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.03P   21.25R    0.83  
Shrewsbury       26   26  -14      -4.86    26.50    -6.56    48.91     6.38   -21.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   51.97R    4.16  
Colchester       27   22  -26      -5.32    24.29    -8.27    40.98     5.98   -38.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    91.37R   34.40  
Oldham           25   21  -13      -7.80    13.96    -4.69    44.56     6.35   -21.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    75.64R   13.74  
Crewe            25   20  -22      -3.70    30.68    -4.54    39.60     6.09   -37.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    93.61R   45.14  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 19 January 2016, Accrington_Stanley 3 1 Hartlepool; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Plymouth             27   55  +18      10.24    90.83     6.72    86.13     6.19    25.38    34.33    78.24    98.45    83.70P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton          26   55  +16      14.11    96.66     8.07    86.77     6.57    22.50    38.33    79.56    98.42    83.65P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           26   48  +18       6.31    79.58     9.17    80.23     6.46    25.08    10.68    45.08    90.01    56.78P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       27   46  +11       6.41    78.76     7.07    74.53     6.33    14.72     1.90    14.22    65.34    26.17P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           25   44  +22       2.53    63.01    11.21    78.81     6.74    30.95     8.42    38.11    85.60    52.00P    0.00     0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   23   42  +14       8.64    88.30    11.50    75.84     7.27    17.32     4.25    22.41    69.90    32.06P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              25   40   +7       0.94    55.09    -0.05    71.92     6.63    11.63     0.96     8.48    48.82    19.38P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon        26   39   +6       2.84    64.65     5.32    66.46     6.50     5.97     0.09     1.53    19.75     5.46P    0.00R    0.00  
Mansfield            26   38   +8       3.95    70.24    10.26    63.54     6.31     5.39     0.02     0.45     9.90     2.26P    0.00R    0.00  
Carlisle             24   38   +3       5.36    76.45     3.96    67.89     7.06     1.96     0.30     3.32    26.54     7.70P    0.01R    0.00  
Leyton_Orient        26   37   +3      -6.99    18.93    -9.73    70.87     6.61    12.88     0.58     6.30    44.11    19.04P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        27   37   +0       2.14    61.25     3.63    61.24     6.24    -3.11     0.01     0.13     4.69     0.97P    0.07R    0.01  
Morecambe            25   35   +2       0.53    53.06     2.09    64.48     6.79     2.67     0.06     0.97    13.64     3.77P    0.03R    0.01  
Exeter               26   34   -4      -0.17    49.68    -1.32    60.38     6.54    -5.80     0.01     0.13     4.14     0.97P    0.16R    0.02  
Crawley_Town         27   34  -12      -2.10    40.25   -10.38    59.97     6.39   -12.27     0.00     0.05     2.92     0.73P    0.19R    0.02  
Notts_County         25   33   -6      -3.38    33.57    -8.97    64.55     6.93    -1.97     0.05     0.89    13.38     4.17P    0.07R    0.01  
Barnet               27   32   -8       0.83    55.08     1.51    54.05     6.20   -14.48     0.00     0.01     0.34     0.07P    1.81R    0.36  
Luton                26   31   +0      -5.91    22.30    -1.81    60.00     6.48     2.26     0.01     0.13     3.81     1.07P    0.20R    0.03  
Stevenage            27   27  -13      -8.35    14.28   -10.00    52.43     6.33   -14.33     0.00     0.00     0.18     0.03P    3.33R    0.77  
Newport_County       25   23  -11      -6.50    19.00    -3.67    47.80     6.55   -17.23     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P   12.92R    4.04  
Hartlepool           23   23  -16      -0.34    49.28    -3.45    46.35     6.63   -28.70     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   20.79R    7.53  
Dag_&_Red            26   19  -20      -9.97     8.49    -9.23    41.42     6.24   -27.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    46.62R   22.36  
Yeovil               26   17  -16     -14.74     2.05   -10.39    41.33     6.42   -20.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    44.75R   20.44  
York                 25   16  -22     -11.42     4.83   -11.53    37.99     6.35   -32.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    69.04R   44.41  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 16 January 2016, Lincoln_City 0 1 Forest_Green; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Cheltenham       28   60  +34       3.56    67.32     6.43    95.83     5.71    51.10    72.27    99.86    82.90P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     28   58  +21       8.63    86.91     4.25    88.23     6.07    29.44    13.14    95.76    32.96P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          27   52  +32      -1.60    40.47     6.73    87.25     6.01    45.86    12.83    95.18    44.66P    0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic   29   49  +10       5.33    74.43     4.33    74.54     5.81    13.28     0.11    31.67     4.77P    0.00     0.00  
Eastleigh        26   48  +11       6.24    79.16     1.79    79.70     6.46    17.58     1.32    64.68    12.25P    0.00     0.00  
Woking           29   47  +15      -0.69    46.56     2.93    73.93     5.80    20.53     0.10    30.49     5.91P    0.00     0.00  
Macclesfield     30   47  +12       0.22    51.21     3.66    72.24     5.53    16.89     0.02    19.29     3.65P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         29   44   +8      -5.81    23.25    -7.10    73.04     5.86    16.52     0.02    24.36     6.16P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City     30   42   +4       0.95    55.01     4.36    64.01     5.54     3.84     0.00     1.35     0.20P    0.02R    0.00  
Gateshead        27   41   -6       3.86    69.23    -5.66    64.60     6.12   -10.01     0.00     2.35     0.28P    0.06R    0.00  
Wrexham          27   40   +9      -1.87    40.50     1.85    67.53     6.12    11.12     0.00     6.70     1.20P    0.01R    0.00  
Braintree_Town   24   40   +9       4.77    74.80     5.46    73.22     6.69    13.56     0.18    26.57     4.83P    0.00R    0.00  
Bromley          27   38   +2       2.97    64.96     6.25    62.72     6.43    -0.94     0.00     1.57     0.20P    0.24R    0.00  
Southport        28   37   -8       5.94    78.95     3.31    58.23     5.76   -13.26     0.00     0.11     0.01P    1.10R    0.03  
Aldershot        29   35  -10      -0.96    45.95    -4.07    57.06     5.71   -11.90     0.00     0.03     0.00     1.56R    0.12  
Chester          29   34   -9       0.80    54.98     1.79    55.26     5.69   -12.47     0.00     0.02     0.00P    3.29R    0.18  
Barrow           28   33  -17       4.85    74.29     0.85    52.12     5.88   -26.34     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.59R    1.06  
Guiseley         28   31  -17       2.75    65.05    -0.85    47.47     5.57   -29.82     0.00     0.00     0.00    33.28R    5.37  
Halifax          28   28  -19      -6.58    20.26   -11.94    48.73     5.87   -26.30     0.00     0.00     0.00    25.47R    4.08  
Boreham_Wood     28   27   -6      -4.63    27.94     3.04    48.47     5.85   -10.18     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.23R    3.67  
Altrincham       26   27  -17       1.42    59.36    -1.26    49.60     6.19   -24.45     0.00     0.01     0.00P   22.37R    3.73  
Welling          26   24  -14      -3.93    29.68    -2.55    45.61     6.05   -22.80     0.00     0.00     0.00    44.20R   10.62  
Torquay          27   20  -24     -11.10     6.53   -13.90    45.22     6.22   -25.60     0.00     0.00     0.00    46.86R   12.58  
Kidderminster    26   14  -20     -14.96     1.45    -9.70    37.68     6.20   -25.65     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.73R   58.57