Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Wednesday 20 January 2016 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 18 January 2016, Swansea 1 0 Watford; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Arsenal          22   44  +16       3.04    67.11    -0.65    74.01     5.35    28.52    35.91    73.61    88.67    95.70    99.50     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        22   44  +13      12.61    96.63    11.26    66.71     5.51    13.75     4.68    17.61    42.51    65.29    90.09     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         22   43  +22      -2.27    35.14    -2.89    75.43     5.32    38.89    53.44    82.95    93.40    97.57    99.78     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        22   39  +20       1.55    58.97     8.87    65.28     5.51    26.44     3.57    13.89    36.41    59.86    87.73     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          22   37   +8      -0.83    44.77    -3.41    64.52     5.47    16.23     2.22    10.06    28.78    50.53    83.02     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham         22   35   +8       4.04    72.82     6.99    57.01     5.46     8.12     0.09     0.73     3.38     9.19    33.65     0.01R    0.00  
Stoke            22   33   +2       3.27    69.09     2.38    54.51     5.41     1.48     0.01     0.19     1.10     3.60    17.89     0.05R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   22   31   -1       4.57    76.49     4.36    51.00     5.40    -3.51     0.00     0.02     0.25     0.96     6.19     0.40R    0.00  
Liverpool        22   31   -3      -1.11    43.69    -5.69    55.85     5.62     1.35     0.03     0.35     2.00     5.86    24.86     0.07R    0.00  
Southampton      22   30   +7      -5.06    22.80    -0.16    53.77     5.48     9.74     0.01     0.17     1.03     3.37    16.86     0.10R    0.00  
Everton          22   29   +7      -4.05    27.74     2.92    55.33     5.58    13.77     0.03     0.36     1.91     5.86    25.70     0.07R    0.00  
Watford          22   29   +0       2.86    66.79     6.38    49.18     5.52    -2.78     0.00     0.02     0.14     0.54     3.89     1.03R    0.01  
West_Brom        22   27   -8       2.19    63.76    -0.29    45.83     5.30   -13.09     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.06     0.71     4.35R    0.07  
Chelsea          22   25   -3     -13.19     2.42   -15.29    51.98     5.58     4.59     0.01     0.06     0.42     1.60     9.96     0.39R    0.01  
Bournemouth      22   24  -11       0.56    54.63     0.83    40.36     5.34   -20.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07    24.46R    1.32  
Norwich          22   23  -14      -0.00    51.39    -2.02    39.91     5.37   -22.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03    27.86R    1.74  
Swansea          22   22  -10      -4.91    23.05    -5.12    40.44     5.33   -15.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06    21.83R    1.07  
Newcastle        22   21  -15      -1.00    45.05    -1.35    37.60     5.26   -23.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    44.60R    3.68  
Sunderland       22   18  -18      -3.26    30.88    -2.92    33.06     5.17   -28.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    77.23R   14.41  
Aston_Villa      22   12  -20      -8.02     8.71    -4.23    25.91     4.91   -32.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.55R   77.70  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 16 January 2016, Blackburn 0 1 Brighton; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Middlesbrough   26   55  +24       8.88    89.56     8.71    90.63     6.14    35.47    53.47    81.40    99.72    87.34P    0.00     0.00  
Hull            27   53  +26       2.74    63.69     6.82    87.72     5.94    38.82    32.85    68.52    99.23    79.61P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           27   49  +17       2.60    63.14     2.71    81.88     6.09    27.16     7.30    24.96    92.98    46.05P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley         27   48  +18       1.79    59.29     4.34    80.18     6.14    26.99     5.13    18.04    88.93    40.17P    0.00     0.00  
Brighton        27   47   +5       9.11    88.87     3.04    73.92     5.98     6.79     0.53     2.51    53.60    11.76P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed       27   45  +11       6.12    79.04     7.89    71.82     6.02    12.47     0.19     1.33    42.37     8.88P    0.00R    0.00  
Ipswich         27   45   +5       4.56    72.62    -0.28    73.68     6.09     9.16     0.42     2.36    53.47    12.56P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham      27   43   +6       6.38    80.44     6.22    69.21     6.11     6.58     0.07     0.54    25.60     4.67P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff         27   40   +4       2.70    64.48     3.04    67.56     6.06     6.38     0.02     0.23    18.30     3.65P    0.00R    0.00  
Wolverhampton   27   37   -1      -2.47    37.74    -4.88    63.72     6.05     0.14     0.00     0.03     6.44     1.43P    0.05R    0.00  
Brentford       27   36   -1      -1.69    41.66    -1.99    63.58     6.15     1.34     0.00     0.03     6.60     1.30P    0.05R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   27   35   +4      -3.81    31.08     0.92    60.86     6.06     3.92     0.00     0.01     2.94     0.58P    0.14R    0.00  
Preston         27   35   +0      -0.15    49.72     1.70    60.02     5.98    -0.76     0.00     0.00     1.98     0.38P    0.16R    0.00  
Reading         27   34   +1      -1.49    42.69     2.88    59.05     5.98    -0.04     0.00     0.01     1.44     0.22P    0.29R    0.01  
QPR             27   34   +0      -5.34    25.24    -3.51    62.19     6.27     3.46     0.00     0.02     5.20     1.15P    0.11R    0.00  
Huddersfield    27   32   -1      -2.27    38.70     3.33    54.36     6.03    -6.36     0.00     0.00     0.23     0.03P    2.49R    0.07  
Leeds_United    27   32   -5      -0.66    47.00     0.75    56.00     5.90    -7.52     0.00     0.00     0.36     0.06P    1.43R    0.04  
Blackburn       26   29   +0      -7.42    15.79    -1.71    56.14     6.17     0.07     0.00     0.00     0.52     0.13P    1.63R    0.05  
Fulham          27   28   -4      -6.47    20.36     0.89    51.75     6.08    -7.88     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.02P    6.65R    0.44  
MK_Dons         27   26  -16      -4.42    28.28    -6.58    47.36     5.97   -22.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    23.74R    2.59  
Rotherham       27   24  -15      -3.81    30.67    -0.69    43.17     5.75   -25.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    50.58R    9.23  
Bristol_City    27   24  -22      -4.39    28.42    -8.74    44.46     5.99   -30.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    43.46R    7.30  
Charlton        27   20  -32      -5.22    22.89   -14.15    38.36     5.68   -43.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    82.50R   35.61  
Bolton          27   17  -24     -10.99     5.88   -10.72    36.77     5.69   -33.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.73R   44.66  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 19 January 2016, Colchester 1 1 Fleetwood_Town; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Burton_Albion    25   54  +15      16.79    98.75    10.55    85.35     6.70    18.87    30.70    52.89    94.57    60.94P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall          26   52  +19      10.11    91.02     9.81    84.92     6.38    27.17    29.82    52.31    95.29    62.96P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham       27   51  +19       8.14    84.82    10.01    81.63     6.39    26.07    15.00    32.46    88.24    45.07P    0.00     0.00  
Coventry         27   48  +20       4.66    72.08    10.51    78.28     6.25    26.35     5.91    16.49    76.37    31.36P    0.00     0.00  
Wigan            27   48  +16      -0.39    47.66    -0.99    81.84     6.25    27.55    15.31    34.13    89.09    52.97P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough     26   41  +14      -0.97    44.94     4.19    73.96     6.54    22.54     1.82     6.02    51.45    18.20P    0.01R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd        26   40   +6      -1.31    42.89    -2.51    71.52     6.46    12.12     0.71     2.65    33.99    10.71P    0.02R    0.00  
Millwall         26   40   +5       0.46    52.43    -0.81    70.12     6.56     9.01     0.45     1.71    26.34     7.54P    0.08R    0.00  
Southend         26   38   -1       5.49    76.79     3.59    63.83     6.41    -3.11     0.02     0.12     5.29     1.11P    1.03R    0.00  
Bradford         24   37   -1       4.73    74.87    -0.31    67.38     6.70    -0.35     0.17     0.68    14.07     3.38P    0.33R    0.00  
Port_Vale        26   36   +0       1.82    59.75     2.11    62.43     6.38    -1.51     0.01     0.06     3.66     0.74P    1.72R    0.02  
Doncaster        26   35   -2      -0.93    45.84    -2.38    62.31     6.43    -2.18     0.01     0.04     3.62     0.79P    1.97R    0.02  
Rochdale         25   34   +4      -1.65    41.52     2.03    65.23     6.69     7.51     0.07     0.34     9.64     2.36P    0.65R    0.00  
Swindon          26   34   -3      -5.30    24.88    -8.48    62.96     6.56    -0.96     0.01     0.06     4.66     1.14P    1.76R    0.01  
Bury             25   33   -5       3.29    67.83     2.48    58.41     6.65   -10.67     0.00     0.01     1.14     0.20P    7.84R    0.15  
Scunthorpe       26   32   -8       0.56    53.60    -1.34    56.84     6.33   -12.21     0.00     0.00     0.46     0.07P   10.79R    0.22  
Barnsley         25   30   -4      -4.94    25.90    -4.65    59.16     6.66    -3.68     0.00     0.02     1.47     0.35P    5.67R    0.11  
Chesterfield     27   30   -9      -6.15    22.03    -7.30    56.50     6.30    -8.51     0.00     0.00     0.36     0.08P   10.88R    0.25  
Blackpool        26   28   -8      -4.70    27.53    -3.86    53.38     6.40   -10.95     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.02P   23.32R    0.99  
Fleetwood_Town   25   27   -2      -5.18    24.26     1.14    53.56     6.49    -5.28     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.03P   21.04R    0.84  
Shrewsbury       26   26  -14      -4.84    26.80    -6.48    48.89     6.33   -20.98     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    52.48R    4.13  
Colchester       27   22  -26      -5.22    24.59    -8.11    40.86     5.96   -38.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    91.61R   34.71  
Oldham           25   21  -13      -7.99    13.33    -4.97    44.62     6.37   -20.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    75.31R   13.43  
Crewe            25   20  -22      -3.50    31.57    -4.21    39.53     6.15   -37.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    93.47R   45.12  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 19 January 2016, Accrington_Stanley 3 1 Hartlepool; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Plymouth             27   55  +18      10.39    91.20     6.91    86.12     6.13    25.32    34.21    78.66    98.62    84.10P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton          26   55  +16      14.12    96.73     8.08    86.76     6.58    22.49    38.90    79.44    98.32    83.63P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           26   48  +18       6.25    79.41     9.03    80.26     6.42    25.16    10.61    45.28    90.32    57.30P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       27   46  +11       6.68    80.14     7.43    74.41     6.27    14.53     1.64    13.66    64.50    25.54P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           25   44  +22       2.55    63.26    11.26    78.81     6.69    30.93     8.39    38.34    85.79    52.18P    0.00     0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   23   42  +14       8.74    88.42    11.69    75.69     7.25    17.05     4.00    21.98    69.44    31.40P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              25   40   +7       0.83    54.38    -0.21    71.99     6.68    11.77     1.06     8.58    49.59    19.46P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon        26   39   +6       3.00    65.54     5.62    66.29     6.48     5.67     0.09     1.38    18.94     5.03P    0.00R    0.00  
Mansfield            26   38   +8       3.94    70.22    10.23    63.52     6.37     5.31     0.02     0.53    10.02     2.32P    0.01R    0.00  
Carlisle             24   38   +3       5.23    76.12     3.76    67.91     7.02     1.96     0.28     3.31    26.69     7.73P    0.00R    0.00  
Leyton_Orient        26   37   +3      -7.12    18.40    -9.98    70.99     6.57    13.03     0.64     6.52    44.57    19.50P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        27   37   +0       2.15    61.13     3.64    61.34     6.25    -2.96     0.01     0.13     4.97     1.05P    0.07R    0.00  
Morecambe            25   35   +2       0.43    52.72     2.00    64.48     6.83     2.74     0.07     0.97    13.58     3.72P    0.03R    0.00  
Exeter               26   34   -4      -0.15    49.74    -1.26    60.32     6.51    -5.88     0.02     0.15     3.83     0.88P    0.17R    0.02  
Crawley_Town         27   34  -12      -1.93    40.93   -10.09    59.93     6.40   -12.36     0.00     0.07     2.90     0.68P    0.18R    0.02  
Notts_County         25   33   -6      -3.29    34.08    -8.83    64.53     6.91    -2.02     0.04     0.87    13.34     4.15P    0.08R    0.01  
Barnet               27   32   -8       0.61    53.77     1.19    54.20     6.24   -14.21     0.00     0.00     0.36     0.07P    1.81R    0.33  
Luton                26   31   +0      -6.15    21.57    -2.20    60.19     6.50     2.56     0.01     0.11     4.02     1.20P    0.18R    0.03  
Stevenage            27   27  -13      -8.39    14.40   -10.05    52.47     6.33   -14.26     0.00     0.00     0.18     0.04P    3.23R    0.82  
Newport_County       25   23  -11      -6.43    19.19    -3.64    47.80     6.48   -17.22     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   12.76R    3.81  
Hartlepool           23   23  -16      -0.24    49.99    -3.35    46.22     6.66   -28.90     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   21.37R    7.90  
Dag_&_Red            26   19  -20     -10.05     8.32    -9.34    41.52     6.26   -27.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    46.12R   22.03  
Yeovil               26   17  -16     -14.71     2.13   -10.37    41.27     6.40   -20.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    45.06R   20.43  
York                 25   16  -22     -11.38     5.01   -11.52    37.99     6.34   -32.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    68.93R   44.60  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 16 January 2016, Lincoln_City 0 1 Forest_Green; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Cheltenham       28   60  +34       3.60    67.64     6.42    95.80     5.70    51.08    72.29    99.87    82.82P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     28   58  +21       8.43    86.19     3.85    88.31     6.06    29.63    13.31    95.59    33.58P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          27   52  +32      -1.66    40.41     6.61    87.22     5.98    45.83    12.49    95.25    43.94P    0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic   29   49  +10       5.33    74.40     4.43    74.52     5.85    13.23     0.09    31.39     4.75P    0.00     0.00  
Eastleigh        26   48  +11       6.19    78.76     1.69    79.73     6.44    17.63     1.46    64.62    12.28P    0.00     0.00  
Woking           29   47  +15      -0.70    46.42     2.93    73.95     5.83    20.57     0.12    30.28     6.06P    0.00     0.00  
Macclesfield     30   47  +12       0.39    51.87     3.89    72.22     5.53    16.86     0.01    18.86     3.43P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         29   44   +8      -5.93    23.14    -7.26    73.09     5.87    16.59     0.06    24.34     6.25P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City     30   42   +4       1.00    55.22     4.47    64.08     5.58     3.91     0.00     1.38     0.18P    0.02R    0.00  
Gateshead        27   41   -6       3.83    69.28    -5.77    64.61     6.19    -9.97     0.00     2.53     0.28P    0.05R    0.00  
Wrexham          27   40   +9      -1.89    40.50     1.79    67.57     6.17    11.17     0.00     6.86     1.27P    0.01R    0.00  
Braintree_Town   24   40   +9       4.66    74.31     5.26    73.34     6.73    13.75     0.17    27.22     4.95P    0.00R    0.00  
Bromley          27   38   +2       2.92    64.48     6.25    62.70     6.43    -0.93     0.00     1.64     0.18P    0.23R    0.01  
Southport        28   37   -8       5.93    78.64     3.31    58.19     5.77   -13.29     0.00     0.10     0.00P    1.07R    0.06  
Aldershot        29   35  -10      -0.98    45.81    -4.05    57.06     5.70   -11.88     0.00     0.04     0.01P    1.61R    0.06  
Chester          29   34   -9       1.02    56.28     2.18    55.15     5.67   -12.62     0.00     0.01     0.00     3.21R    0.19  
Barrow           28   33  -17       4.82    73.95     0.78    52.14     5.95   -26.38     0.00     0.01     0.00P   11.69R    1.14  
Guiseley         28   31  -17       2.75    64.92    -0.85    47.46     5.57   -29.84     0.00     0.00     0.00    33.08R    5.36  
Halifax          28   28  -19      -6.42    20.86   -11.62    48.67     5.85   -26.44     0.00     0.00     0.00    25.92R    4.32  
Boreham_Wood     28   27   -6      -4.69    27.61     2.99    48.44     5.82   -10.22     0.00     0.00     0.00    23.86R    3.56  
Altrincham       26   27  -17       1.51    59.63    -1.15    49.51     6.17   -24.57     0.00     0.00     0.00    22.77R    3.74  
Welling          26   24  -14      -3.85    30.44    -2.40    45.55     6.04   -22.91     0.00     0.00     0.00    44.41R   10.84  
Torquay          27   20  -24     -11.26     6.19   -14.14    45.25     6.23   -25.54     0.00     0.00     0.00    46.51R   12.75  
Kidderminster    26   14  -20     -14.93     1.43    -9.60    37.71     6.17   -25.64     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.58R   57.96