Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Tuesday 19 January 2016 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 18 January 2016, Swansea 1 0 Watford; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Arsenal          22   44  +16       3.03    67.08    -0.61    74.01     5.35    28.47    35.96    73.85    89.06    95.72    99.49     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        22   44  +13      12.60    96.60    11.26    66.69     5.53    13.72     4.90    17.36    41.95    65.07    90.03     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         22   43  +22      -2.30    34.83    -2.94    75.38     5.28    38.80    52.86    82.60    93.38    97.75    99.80     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        22   39  +20       1.60    58.73     8.95    65.31     5.55    26.52     3.75    14.36    36.87    59.74    87.53     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          22   37   +8      -0.77    45.19    -3.32    64.48     5.45    16.16     2.33     9.98    28.42    50.18    82.84     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham         22   35   +8       4.12    72.99     7.09    57.07     5.46     8.18     0.10     0.78     3.50     9.38    33.60     0.00R    0.00  
Stoke            22   33   +2       3.25    69.05     2.34    54.53     5.40     1.53     0.01     0.15     1.11     3.79    17.92     0.04R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   22   31   -1       4.58    76.42     4.36    50.97     5.39    -3.54     0.00     0.04     0.29     0.95     6.24     0.35R    0.00  
Liverpool        22   31   -3      -1.23    42.87    -5.85    55.91     5.64     1.45     0.02     0.33     2.06     6.19    25.58     0.05R    0.00  
Southampton      22   30   +7      -5.12    22.38    -0.23    53.80     5.49     9.80     0.04     0.19     1.05     3.43    17.25     0.09R    0.00  
Everton          22   29   +7      -3.96    28.32     3.03    55.28     5.55    13.69     0.03     0.30     1.78     5.70    25.32     0.05R    0.00  
Watford          22   29   +0       2.90    67.16     6.49    49.10     5.51    -2.93     0.00     0.01     0.12     0.51     3.74     1.07R    0.00  
West_Brom        22   27   -8       2.27    64.36    -0.19    45.80     5.30   -13.11     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.06     0.73     4.68R    0.11  
Chelsea          22   25   -3     -13.22     2.38   -15.29    51.95     5.55     4.54     0.00     0.05     0.40     1.53     9.73     0.38R    0.00  
Bournemouth      22   24  -11       0.40    53.76     0.51    40.43     5.39   -20.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07    24.31R    1.23  
Norwich          22   23  -14       0.20    52.50    -1.73    39.81     5.36   -22.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04    28.85R    1.72  
Swansea          22   22  -10      -4.89    23.21    -5.08    40.45     5.30   -15.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07    22.08R    1.01  
Newcastle        22   21  -15      -1.15    44.02    -1.57    37.70     5.24   -23.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    43.72R    3.73  
Sunderland       22   18  -18      -3.28    30.89    -2.93    33.13     5.17   -28.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    76.77R   13.84  
Aston_Villa      22   12  -20      -8.03     8.52    -4.27    25.86     4.91   -32.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.53R   78.35  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 16 January 2016, Blackburn 0 1 Brighton; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Middlesbrough   26   55  +24       8.79    89.34     8.57    90.74     6.12    35.60    53.79    81.99    99.72    88.09P    0.00     0.00  
Hull            27   53  +26       2.78    64.02     6.87    87.74     5.95    38.79    32.82    68.38    99.20    79.55P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           27   49  +17       2.62    63.24     2.78    81.81     6.09    27.09     7.05    24.43    92.81    45.57P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley         27   48  +18       1.59    58.09     4.06    80.32     6.16    27.16     5.23    18.37    89.39    41.07P    0.00     0.00  
Brighton        27   47   +5       9.27    89.39     3.23    73.82     5.97     6.71     0.40     2.40    53.19    11.42P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed       27   45  +11       6.20    79.36     8.01    71.88     6.02    12.53     0.16     1.28    42.99     8.83P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich         27   45   +5       4.64    72.74    -0.10    73.58     6.12     8.97     0.46     2.38    52.59    12.13P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham      27   43   +6       6.50    80.67     6.39    69.07     6.09     6.35     0.07     0.45    24.96     4.38P    0.00R    0.00  
Cardiff         27   40   +4       2.52    63.35     2.77    67.70     6.08     6.55     0.03     0.22    19.27     3.76P    0.00R    0.00  
Wolverhampton   27   37   -1      -2.47    37.53    -4.90    63.75     6.07     0.16     0.00     0.04     6.50     1.29P    0.03R    0.00  
Brentford       27   36   -1      -1.78    41.36    -2.14    63.65     6.17     1.46     0.00     0.03     6.83     1.36P    0.06R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   27   35   +4      -3.76    31.26     0.98    60.83     6.04     3.88     0.00     0.00     2.93     0.57P    0.16R    0.00  
Preston         27   35   +0      -0.22    49.11     1.58    60.06     6.00    -0.73     0.00     0.00     2.02     0.35P    0.20R    0.00  
Reading         27   34   +1      -1.39    43.20     2.99    58.93     6.03    -0.15     0.00     0.00     1.46     0.27P    0.34R    0.00  
QPR             27   34   +0      -5.39    24.84    -3.58    62.20     6.22     3.49     0.00     0.01     4.99     1.17P    0.11R    0.00  
Huddersfield    27   32   -1      -2.20    39.00     3.41    54.33     5.95    -6.42     0.00     0.00     0.18     0.02P    2.49R    0.07  
Leeds_United    27   32   -5      -0.72    46.82     0.67    55.99     5.88    -7.53     0.00     0.00     0.31     0.03P    1.38R    0.05  
Blackburn       26   29   +0      -7.50    15.51    -1.80    56.15     6.17     0.11     0.00     0.00     0.54     0.14P    1.50R    0.03  
Fulham          27   28   -4      -6.65    19.46     0.61    51.86     6.09    -7.67     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.01P    6.38R    0.38  
MK_Dons         27   26  -16      -4.45    28.15    -6.58    47.39     5.94   -22.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    23.42R    2.57  
Rotherham       27   24  -15      -3.65    31.35    -0.46    43.06     5.76   -25.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    51.34R    9.47  
Bristol_City    27   24  -22      -4.29    28.91    -8.72    44.53     5.98   -30.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   42.78R    7.26  
Charlton        27   20  -32      -5.09    23.52   -13.92    38.26     5.61   -43.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    83.40R   35.69  
Bolton          27   17  -24     -10.99     5.60   -10.71    36.75     5.76   -33.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.41R   44.48  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 19 January 2016, Colchester 1 1 Fleetwood_Town; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Burton_Albion    25   54  +15      16.59    98.67    10.24    85.43     6.71    19.02    31.73    53.74    94.75    61.68P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall          26   52  +19      10.25    91.22    10.03    84.79     6.34    27.00    29.28    51.80    95.20    62.37P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham       27   51  +19       8.23    85.13    10.16    81.56     6.37    25.92    14.61    32.34    87.95    44.74P    0.00     0.00  
Coventry         27   48  +20       4.79    72.58    10.71    78.15     6.31    26.18     5.72    16.24    75.43    30.87P    0.00     0.00  
Wigan            27   48  +16      -0.35    47.59    -0.95    81.78     6.24    27.47    15.13    33.65    89.23    53.09P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough     26   41  +14      -1.10    44.49     3.99    74.03     6.52    22.61     1.94     6.28    52.08    18.28P    0.00R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd        26   40   +6      -1.14    44.25    -2.25    71.39     6.47    11.95     0.72     2.59    33.13    10.51P    0.03R    0.00  
Millwall         26   40   +5       0.35    52.13    -0.95    70.24     6.60     9.15     0.56     1.96    27.04     8.04P    0.05R    0.00  
Southend         26   38   -1       5.64    77.27     3.78    63.71     6.36    -3.29     0.01     0.12     5.12     1.04P    1.10R    0.01  
Bradford         24   37   -1       4.55    73.88    -0.55    67.43     6.73    -0.28     0.17     0.70    14.36     3.40P    0.36R    0.00  
Port_Vale        26   36   +0       1.75    59.49     2.04    62.52     6.34    -1.35     0.01     0.08     3.58     0.72P    1.62R    0.02  
Doncaster        26   35   -2      -1.03    45.20    -2.53    62.40     6.47    -2.06     0.01     0.04     3.62     0.78P    1.83R    0.02  
Rochdale         25   34   +4      -1.64    41.64     2.06    65.22     6.69     7.51     0.08     0.30     9.56     2.46P    0.73R    0.01  
Swindon          26   34   -3      -5.41    24.39    -8.65    63.02     6.58    -0.86     0.02     0.11     4.85     1.25P    1.65R    0.02  
Bury             25   33   -5       3.26    67.57     2.40    58.45     6.72   -10.59     0.00     0.02     1.32     0.21P    7.79R    0.16  
Scunthorpe       26   32   -8       0.59    53.83    -1.30    56.85     6.41   -12.15     0.00     0.01     0.51     0.09P   10.77R    0.23  
Barnsley         25   30   -4      -4.87    26.04    -4.53    59.21     6.68    -3.66     0.00     0.01     1.57     0.32P    5.79R    0.11  
Chesterfield     27   30   -9      -6.20    21.60    -7.36    56.51     6.30    -8.52     0.00     0.01     0.40     0.10P   10.87R    0.26  
Blackpool        26   28   -8      -4.75    26.98    -3.97    53.53     6.40   -10.74     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.04P   22.81R    1.00  
Fleetwood_Town   25   27   -2      -5.06    24.86     1.29    53.51     6.48    -5.33     0.00     0.00     0.18     0.03P   21.52R    0.75  
Shrewsbury       26   26  -14      -4.99    26.09    -6.75    48.98     6.34   -20.86     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   51.86R    4.04  
Colchester       27   22  -26      -5.28    24.53    -8.19    40.89     5.96   -38.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    91.65R   34.27  
Oldham           25   21  -13      -7.78    14.01    -4.62    44.54     6.38   -21.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    75.54R   13.41  
Crewe            25   20  -22      -3.45    31.96    -4.11    39.41     6.05   -37.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.03R   45.69  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 19 January 2016, Accrington_Stanley 3 1 Hartlepool; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Plymouth             27   55  +18      10.27    90.49     6.75    86.20     6.23    25.49    34.64    78.71    98.49    84.23P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton          26   55  +16      14.12    96.72     8.11    86.80     6.54    22.55    38.12    79.73    98.35    83.86P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           26   48  +18       6.28    79.23     9.03    80.34     6.42    25.25    10.74    45.61    90.53    57.70P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       27   46  +11       6.44    79.08     7.07    74.55     6.29    14.70     1.76    13.97    65.50    25.97P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           25   44  +22       2.66    63.59    11.45    78.70     6.73    30.78     8.17    37.54    85.30    51.39P    0.00     0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   23   42  +14       8.68    88.05    11.59    75.78     7.29    17.21     4.39    22.32    69.78    31.86P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              25   40   +7       0.91    55.05    -0.10    71.95     6.65    11.67     0.96     8.41    48.94    19.29P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon        26   39   +6       3.06    65.67     5.66    66.33     6.50     5.73     0.13     1.54    19.29     5.23P    0.00R    0.00  
Mansfield            26   38   +8       3.92    70.14    10.17    63.47     6.36     5.27     0.02     0.43     9.93     2.19P    0.02R    0.00  
Carlisle             24   38   +3       5.39    76.46     4.01    67.77     7.07     1.74     0.28     3.01    26.33     7.28P    0.01R    0.00  
Leyton_Orient        26   37   +3      -6.99    18.81    -9.69    70.87     6.64    12.86     0.67     6.39    44.17    19.12P    0.00R    0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        27   37   +0       2.17    61.34     3.71    61.27     6.20    -3.02     0.00     0.16     4.63     1.05P    0.07R    0.01  
Morecambe            25   35   +2       0.42    52.55     1.95    64.57     6.74     2.82     0.05     0.95    13.62     3.67P    0.03R    0.00  
Exeter               26   34   -4      -0.25    49.24    -1.41    60.43     6.51    -5.74     0.00     0.13     4.07     0.98P    0.14R    0.03  
Crawley_Town         27   34  -12      -2.05    40.32   -10.30    59.99     6.41   -12.24     0.00     0.09     2.99     0.74P    0.22R    0.04  
Notts_County         25   33   -6      -3.51    32.75    -9.21    64.69     6.89    -1.79     0.06     0.90    13.67     4.25P    0.06R    0.01  
Barnet               27   32   -8       0.84    55.09     1.51    54.03     6.22   -14.47     0.00     0.00     0.33     0.06P    1.87R    0.35  
Luton                26   31   +0      -5.82    22.76    -1.71    59.95     6.49     2.21     0.00     0.09     3.87     1.06P    0.19R    0.02  
Stevenage            27   27  -13      -8.51    13.85   -10.27    52.50     6.31   -14.17     0.00     0.00     0.18     0.05P    3.19R    0.73  
Newport_County       25   23  -11      -6.44    19.26    -3.60    47.75     6.57   -17.31     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   13.19R    4.06  
Hartlepool           23   23  -16      -0.36    49.29    -3.54    46.33     6.63   -28.73     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   20.79R    7.59  
Dag_&_Red            26   19  -20      -9.94     8.56    -9.18    41.40     6.22   -27.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    46.44R   22.52  
Yeovil               26   17  -16     -14.82     2.02   -10.46    41.35     6.44   -20.32     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    44.78R   20.22  
York                 25   16  -22     -11.39     4.96   -11.54    37.98     6.30   -32.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    68.99R   44.42  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 16 January 2016, Lincoln_City 0 1 Forest_Green; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Cheltenham       28   60  +34       3.57    67.23     6.41    95.86     5.73    51.18    72.27    99.86    82.79P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     28   58  +21       8.41    86.08     3.81    88.31     6.09    29.59    13.24    95.67    33.67P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          27   52  +32      -1.50    40.97     6.94    87.14     6.01    45.72    12.61    95.11    43.93P    0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic   29   49  +10       5.37    74.13     4.41    74.55     5.82    13.27     0.11    31.78     4.80P    0.00     0.00  
Eastleigh        26   48  +11       6.28    79.15     1.84    79.64     6.47    17.49     1.45    64.44    12.37P    0.00     0.00  
Woking           29   47  +15      -0.71    46.53     2.93    73.97     5.78    20.59     0.09    30.64     5.96P    0.00     0.00  
Macclesfield     30   47  +12       0.44    52.05     3.97    72.15     5.56    16.75     0.01    18.93     3.59P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         29   44   +8      -5.92    22.98    -7.26    73.08     5.85    16.59     0.04    24.99     6.34P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City     30   42   +4       1.10    55.64     4.60    63.97     5.55     3.80     0.00     1.35     0.18P    0.02R    0.00  
Gateshead        27   41   -6       3.79    69.23    -5.82    64.64     6.17    -9.96     0.00     2.34     0.31P    0.05R    0.00  
Wrexham          27   40   +9      -1.80    40.91     1.94    67.54     6.19    11.13     0.00     6.87     1.16P    0.01R    0.00  
Braintree_Town   24   40   +9       4.89    75.10     5.58    73.16     6.69    13.50     0.16    26.40     4.70P    0.00R    0.00  
Bromley          27   38   +2       2.95    64.53     6.31    62.64     6.41    -1.07     0.00     1.44     0.20P    0.22R    0.00  
Southport        28   37   -8       5.82    78.27     3.16    58.24     5.80   -13.21     0.00     0.10     0.01P    1.13R    0.05  
Aldershot        29   35  -10      -0.95    45.96    -4.00    57.09     5.72   -11.86     0.00     0.05     0.01P    1.69R    0.09  
Chester          29   34   -9       0.88    55.36     1.98    55.23     5.70   -12.52     0.00     0.02     0.00     3.41R    0.17  
Barrow           28   33  -17       4.72    73.65     0.65    52.17     5.90   -26.31     0.00     0.01     0.00P   11.51R    1.20  
Guiseley         28   31  -17       2.54    64.17    -1.19    47.61     5.62   -29.61     0.00     0.00     0.00    32.55R    5.21  
Halifax          28   28  -19      -6.61    20.32   -11.97    48.76     5.94   -26.25     0.00     0.00     0.00    25.65R    4.31  
Boreham_Wood     28   27   -6      -4.64    28.08     3.04    48.47     5.83   -10.20     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.27R    3.67  
Altrincham       26   27  -17       1.49    59.75    -1.16    49.56     6.15   -24.53     0.00     0.00     0.00    22.60R    3.67  
Welling          26   24  -14      -3.80    30.45    -2.37    45.54     6.02   -22.98     0.00     0.00     0.00    44.91R   10.80  
Torquay          27   20  -24     -11.31     6.23   -14.18    45.35     6.26   -25.43     0.00     0.00     0.00    46.39R   12.48  
Kidderminster    26   14  -20     -14.92     1.45    -9.62    37.67     6.25   -25.67     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.61R   58.34