Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Monday 18 January 2016 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 18 January 2016, Swansea 1 0 Watford; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Arsenal          22   44  +16       3.00    66.90    -0.69    74.06     5.32    28.58    36.07    74.28    89.25    95.85    99.51     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        22   44  +13      12.69    96.89    11.42    66.62     5.50    13.63     4.58    16.77    41.67    64.68    89.77     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         22   43  +22      -2.40    34.46    -3.09    75.44     5.29    38.88    53.31    83.12    93.59    97.78    99.81     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        22   39  +20       1.49    58.41     8.77    65.32     5.57    26.51     3.75    14.45    37.00    60.07    87.53     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          22   37   +8      -0.75    45.29    -3.23    64.40     5.44    16.00     2.10     9.52    27.94    49.88    82.73     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham         22   35   +8       3.95    72.17     6.87    57.05     5.50     8.15     0.10     0.79     3.58     9.37    33.66     0.01R    0.00  
Stoke            22   33   +2       3.33    69.43     2.44    54.51     5.41     1.47     0.01     0.19     1.19     3.66    17.96     0.05R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   22   31   -1       4.55    76.14     4.34    51.01     5.38    -3.48     0.00     0.02     0.21     0.92     6.13     0.37R    0.00  
Liverpool        22   31   -3      -1.10    43.69    -5.71    55.84     5.62     1.35     0.03     0.34     1.98     6.06    24.93     0.04R    0.00  
Southampton      22   30   +7      -5.15    22.20    -0.26    53.85     5.51     9.87     0.03     0.17     1.19     3.68    17.59     0.06R    0.00  
Everton          22   29   +7      -4.09    27.70     2.89    55.34     5.53    13.77     0.02     0.27     1.85     5.79    25.51     0.05R    0.00  
Watford          22   29   +0       2.90    67.09     6.44    49.15     5.50    -2.81     0.00     0.01     0.13     0.48     3.83     1.07R    0.01  
West_Brom        22   27   -8       2.24    64.33    -0.22    45.78     5.34   -13.13     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.06     0.78     4.63R    0.08  
Chelsea          22   25   -3     -13.16     2.46   -15.24    52.03     5.61     4.64     0.00     0.06     0.42     1.69    10.08     0.40R    0.00  
Bournemouth      22   24  -11       0.56    54.46     0.77    40.38     5.36   -20.32     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07    24.21R    1.28  
Norwich          22   23  -14       0.15    52.23    -1.76    39.80     5.37   -22.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.04    28.58R    1.72  
Swansea          22   22  -10      -4.82    23.62    -4.98    40.38     5.31   -15.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05    22.50R    1.07  
Newcastle        22   21  -15      -1.05    44.84    -1.37    37.68     5.27   -23.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    43.92R    3.64  
Sunderland       22   18  -18      -3.38    30.11    -3.13    33.17     5.17   -28.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    76.55R   14.05  
Aston_Villa      22   12  -20      -8.01     8.57    -4.23    25.89     4.88   -32.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.58R   78.16  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 16 January 2016, Blackburn 0 1 Brighton; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Middlesbrough   26   55  +24       8.79    89.33     8.61    90.68     6.07    35.57    53.60    81.72    99.78    87.82P    0.00     0.00  
Hull            27   53  +26       2.67    63.53     6.78    87.75     5.94    38.82    32.93    68.53    99.19    79.81P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           27   49  +17       2.58    63.11     2.65    81.87     6.09    27.16     7.17    24.53    93.14    45.92P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley         27   48  +18       1.58    58.07     4.01    80.31     6.13    27.18     5.20    18.33    89.55    41.07P    0.00     0.00  
Brighton        27   47   +5       9.36    89.61     3.36    73.76     6.00     6.59     0.47     2.51    52.81    11.34P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed       27   45  +11       6.10    79.04     7.91    71.84     6.02    12.48     0.16     1.27    42.83     8.81P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich         27   45   +5       4.68    73.09    -0.09    73.47     6.11     8.83     0.39     2.29    52.05    12.01P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham      27   43   +6       6.34    80.24     6.18    69.26     6.08     6.62     0.05     0.45    26.34     4.60P    0.00R    0.00  
Cardiff         27   40   +4       2.74    64.64     3.09    67.56     6.08     6.34     0.02     0.25    18.30     3.55P    0.00R    0.00  
Wolverhampton   27   37   -1      -2.32    38.30    -4.68    63.61     6.05    -0.07     0.01     0.04     6.23     1.24P    0.03R    0.00  
Brentford       27   36   -1      -1.94    40.49    -2.40    63.76     6.16     1.64     0.00     0.04     7.23     1.36P    0.06R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   27   35   +4      -3.64    31.96     1.22    60.73     6.04     3.73     0.00     0.01     2.78     0.57P    0.13R    0.00  
Preston         27   35   +0      -0.13    49.93     1.71    60.01     5.95    -0.75     0.00     0.01     1.96     0.37P    0.21R    0.00  
Reading         27   34   +1      -1.43    43.04     2.92    59.02     6.03    -0.06     0.00     0.00     1.54     0.23P    0.37R    0.00  
QPR             27   34   +0      -5.36    24.69    -3.52    62.13     6.28     3.40     0.00     0.01     5.04     1.09P    0.10R    0.01  
Huddersfield    27   32   -1      -2.29    38.80     3.31    54.38     5.98    -6.33     0.00     0.00     0.29     0.06P    2.46R    0.06  
Leeds_United    27   32   -5      -0.54    48.05     0.96    55.88     5.90    -7.67     0.00     0.00     0.31     0.04P    1.57R    0.04  
Blackburn       26   29   +0      -7.52    15.50    -1.81    56.19     6.14     0.13     0.00     0.00     0.52     0.09P    1.57R    0.04  
Fulham          27   28   -4      -6.60    19.78     0.70    51.84     6.10    -7.73     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.01P    6.57R    0.42  
MK_Dons         27   26  -16      -4.60    27.23    -6.76    47.51     5.94   -22.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    23.22R    2.50  
Rotherham       27   24  -15      -3.72    30.97    -0.55    43.11     5.69   -25.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    51.22R    9.50  
Bristol_City    27   24  -22      -4.41    28.06    -8.81    44.60     5.94   -30.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    42.80R    7.12  
Charlton        27   20  -32      -5.06    23.72   -13.79    38.24     5.63   -43.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    83.51R   36.75  
Bolton          27   17  -24     -11.14     5.36   -10.99    36.89     5.77   -33.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.16R   43.56  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 17 January 2016, Millwall 3 1 Port_Vale; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Burton_Albion    25   54  +15      16.83    98.81    10.63    85.36     6.74    18.85    31.28    53.40    94.58    61.32P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall          26   52  +19      10.31    91.33    10.07    84.80     6.36    27.01    29.26    52.16    95.18    62.81P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham       27   51  +19       8.10    84.87    10.01    81.61     6.35    26.03    15.21    32.59    88.48    45.25P    0.00     0.00  
Coventry         27   48  +20       4.65    72.13    10.49    78.20     6.31    26.26     6.07    16.43    75.65    30.89P    0.00     0.00  
Wigan            27   48  +16      -0.35    47.68    -0.93    81.74     6.14    27.42    14.79    33.41    89.34    52.81P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough     26   41  +14      -0.95    45.02     4.25    73.93     6.51    22.43     1.87     6.05    51.27    17.89P    0.01R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd        26   40   +6      -1.13    44.23    -2.28    71.42     6.51    11.96     0.71     2.65    33.19    10.48P    0.03R    0.00  
Millwall         26   40   +5       0.34    51.75    -0.95    70.20     6.60     9.13     0.50     1.88    26.99     7.88P    0.08R    0.00  
Southend         26   38   -1       5.50    76.80     3.57    63.77     6.40    -3.18     0.03     0.11     5.26     1.02P    1.14R    0.01  
Bradford         24   37   -1       4.89    75.24    -0.11    67.25     6.74    -0.52     0.17     0.72    13.95     3.39P    0.37R    0.00  
Port_Vale        26   36   +0       1.88    60.55     2.21    62.43     6.34    -1.50     0.02     0.09     3.48     0.76P    1.69R    0.02  
Doncaster        26   35   -2      -1.07    44.77    -2.55    62.41     6.49    -2.05     0.01     0.05     3.76     0.89P    1.91R    0.02  
Rochdale         25   34   +4      -1.61    41.93     2.13    65.14     6.70     7.39     0.07     0.32     9.56     2.44P    0.82R    0.01  
Swindon          26   34   -3      -5.31    24.77    -8.56    63.08     6.61    -0.82     0.01     0.11     4.99     1.30P    1.83R    0.02  
Bury             25   33   -5       3.20    67.10     2.28    58.41     6.70   -10.62     0.01     0.01     1.32     0.26P    8.15R    0.13  
Scunthorpe       26   32   -8       0.50    53.48    -1.43    56.92     6.36   -12.04     0.00     0.00     0.54     0.08P   10.79R    0.25  
Barnsley         25   30   -4      -5.08    25.35    -4.87    59.32     6.70    -3.43     0.00     0.02     1.68     0.38P    5.69R    0.12  
Chesterfield     27   30   -9      -6.07    22.03    -7.16    56.41     6.26    -8.70     0.00     0.00     0.32     0.07P   11.43R    0.28  
Blackpool        26   28   -8      -4.70    27.49    -3.84    53.40     6.41   -10.84     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.03P   23.73R    1.01  
Fleetwood_Town   24   26   -2      -4.70    26.29     1.35    54.10     6.71    -5.07     0.00     0.00     0.31     0.07P   20.47R    0.88  
Shrewsbury       26   26  -14      -4.96    26.08    -6.66    48.98     6.34   -20.89     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   52.19R    4.13  
Oldham           25   21  -13      -7.87    14.00    -4.74    44.64     6.42   -20.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    75.32R   13.91  
Colchester       26   21  -26      -5.07    24.90    -8.39    41.18     6.16   -38.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.51R   33.92  
Crewe            25   20  -22      -3.68    30.54    -4.54    39.63     6.09   -37.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    93.84R   45.29  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 17 January 2016, Oxford_Utd 1 2 Bristol_Rovers; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Plymouth             27   55  +18      10.30    90.91     6.78    86.09     6.13    25.33    34.70    79.14    98.56    84.33P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton          26   55  +16      14.20    96.77     8.24    86.73     6.53    22.40    38.68    79.95    98.48    83.99P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           26   48  +18       6.38    79.92     9.20    80.22     6.43    25.06    10.70    45.69    90.69    57.82P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       27   46  +11       6.46    79.13     7.09    74.53     6.32    14.71     1.90    14.66    66.11    26.57P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           25   44  +22       2.43    62.38    11.11    78.86     6.73    31.03     8.71    39.70    86.35    53.48P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              25   40   +7       0.93    55.16    -0.11    72.02     6.68    11.80     1.04     8.95    50.68    20.07P    0.00     0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   22   39  +12       7.93    86.54    10.97    74.12     7.49    15.20     3.03    17.43    61.88    26.27P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon        26   39   +6       2.95    65.21     5.54    66.35     6.45     5.80     0.12     1.51    19.83     5.37P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield            26   38   +8       3.89    69.78    10.14    63.59     6.37     5.39     0.04     0.57    10.48     2.51P    0.01R    0.00  
Carlisle             24   38   +3       5.47    76.94     4.15    67.82     7.00     1.82     0.29     3.17    26.92     7.61P    0.01R    0.00  
Leyton_Orient        26   37   +3      -7.15    18.39    -9.95    70.99     6.62    13.01     0.65     6.79    45.70    19.93P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        27   37   +0       2.23    61.53     3.75    61.25     6.24    -3.06     0.01     0.16     5.03     1.09P    0.07R    0.00  
Morecambe            25   35   +2       0.39    52.36     1.95    64.52     6.79     2.77     0.05     0.98    14.13     3.89P    0.03R    0.00  
Exeter               26   34   -4      -0.22    49.41    -1.40    60.40     6.49    -5.76     0.00     0.16     4.17     0.94P    0.16R    0.02  
Crawley_Town         27   34  -12      -1.81    41.62    -9.95    59.81     6.42   -12.55     0.00     0.06     2.90     0.77P    0.24R    0.04  
Notts_County         25   33   -6      -3.31    33.73    -8.85    64.43     6.95    -2.13     0.07     0.97    13.40     4.18P    0.07R    0.01  
Barnet               27   32   -8       0.64    54.13     1.20    54.18     6.24   -14.22     0.00     0.01     0.35     0.05P    2.01R    0.40  
Luton                26   31   +0      -6.00    22.07    -1.99    60.07     6.50     2.39     0.00     0.11     4.09     1.07P    0.18R    0.03  
Stevenage            27   27  -13      -8.42    14.03   -10.11    52.47     6.35   -14.23     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.03P    3.68R    0.82  
Newport_County       25   23  -11      -6.38    19.13    -3.51    47.72     6.47   -17.35     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.01P   13.56R    3.95  
Hartlepool           22   23  -14       0.21    52.75    -2.93    47.68     6.84   -26.66     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.01P   16.71R    5.88  
Dag_&_Red            26   19  -20      -9.90     8.78    -9.13    41.41     6.25   -28.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    47.82R   22.92  
Yeovil               26   17  -16     -14.96     1.94   -10.72    41.45     6.43   -20.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   44.98R   20.23  
York                 25   16  -22     -11.34     5.02   -11.47    37.93     6.34   -32.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    70.46R   45.69  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 16 January 2016, Lincoln_City 0 1 Forest_Green; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Cheltenham       28   60  +34       3.72    68.27     6.63    95.73     5.69    50.97    71.85    99.85    82.47P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     28   58  +21       8.51    86.62     3.99    88.29     6.08    29.57    13.31    95.80    33.31P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          27   52  +32      -1.55    40.73     6.81    87.21     5.98    45.74    13.02    95.24    44.54P    0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic   29   49  +10       5.51    75.34     4.66    74.40     5.83    13.05     0.08    30.67     4.57P    0.00     0.00  
Eastleigh        26   48  +11       6.23    79.23     1.75    79.63     6.46    17.52     1.42    64.43    12.33P    0.00     0.00  
Woking           29   47  +15      -0.76    46.19     2.80    73.97     5.79    20.61     0.09    30.85     6.05P    0.00     0.00  
Macclesfield     30   47  +12       0.34    51.60     3.85    72.17     5.58    16.80     0.02    19.07     3.69P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         29   44   +8      -6.01    22.93    -7.38    73.16     5.84    16.66     0.04    25.07     6.46P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City     30   42   +4       1.18    55.89     4.76    63.99     5.59     3.79     0.00     1.35     0.18P    0.02R    0.00  
Gateshead        27   41   -6       3.79    69.12    -5.85    64.67     6.15    -9.94     0.00     2.43     0.27P    0.06R    0.00  
Wrexham          27   40   +9      -1.89    40.37     1.85    67.60     6.15    11.23     0.01     6.99     1.20P    0.00R    0.00  
Braintree_Town   24   40   +9       4.82    75.36     5.49    73.15     6.67    13.47     0.15    26.55     4.74P    0.00     0.00  
Bromley          27   38   +2       2.98    64.90     6.34    62.60     6.42    -1.09     0.00     1.56     0.16P    0.25R    0.01  
Southport        28   37   -8       5.95    78.65     3.33    58.15     5.80   -13.32     0.00     0.09     0.01P    1.17R    0.04  
Aldershot        29   35  -10      -0.96    45.57    -4.04    57.05     5.71   -11.89     0.00     0.04     0.00P    1.62R    0.07  
Chester          29   34   -9       0.96    55.42     2.15    55.11     5.68   -12.69     0.00     0.01     0.00     3.34R    0.23  
Barrow           28   33  -17       4.79    74.03     0.77    52.17     5.97   -26.33     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.03R    1.26  
Guiseley         28   31  -17       2.64    64.53    -1.04    47.58     5.59   -29.67     0.00     0.00     0.00    32.82R    5.16  
Halifax          28   28  -19      -6.59    20.15   -11.91    48.73     5.85   -26.30     0.00     0.00     0.00    25.90R    4.25  
Boreham_Wood     28   27   -6      -4.64    28.09     3.06    48.49     5.83   -10.17     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.43R    3.68  
Altrincham       26   27  -17       1.19    58.21    -1.66    49.77     6.23   -24.16     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.98R    3.51  
Welling          26   24  -14      -3.91    30.01    -2.55    45.61     6.00   -22.80     0.00     0.00     0.00    44.20R   10.46  
Torquay          27   20  -24     -11.33     6.18   -14.29    45.36     6.25   -25.34     0.00     0.00     0.00    46.12R   12.46  
Kidderminster    26   14  -20     -14.85     1.35    -9.53    37.65     6.18   -25.72     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.06R   58.88