Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 15 January 2016 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 13 January 2016, Chelsea 2 2 West_Brom; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Arsenal          21   43  +16       3.57    70.25    -0.48    74.75     5.60    29.07    44.64    77.70    90.69    96.34    99.39     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        21   43  +13      13.17    97.53    11.52    67.38     5.79    14.24     6.79    22.47    49.75    69.41    89.95     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         21   40  +18      -2.39    34.47    -4.15    74.24     5.53    35.37    43.37    77.05    90.41    96.07    99.39     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        21   36  +17       1.20    56.83     7.92    64.32     5.76    24.53     3.09    12.08    31.20    53.25    81.25     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham         21   35   +9       5.34    79.11     7.81    58.74     5.72     9.67     0.34     1.91     7.13    16.28    43.40     0.00R    0.00  
Man_Utd          21   34   +7      -2.12    37.15    -3.87    62.60     5.68    14.79     1.52     6.59    19.98    37.95    70.43     0.00     0.00  
Stoke            21   32   +2       3.32    69.76     1.96    54.63     5.62     1.14     0.04     0.33     1.54     4.60    17.97     0.05R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   21   31   +3       4.61    76.77     6.14    51.93     5.55    -0.25     0.01     0.09     0.53     1.70     8.57     0.17R    0.00  
Liverpool        21   31   -2      -0.09    49.74    -5.24    57.37     5.86     2.58     0.13     1.04     4.41    11.04    33.22     0.02R    0.00  
Watford          21   29   +1       3.73    71.90     6.65    50.60     5.79    -1.73     0.01     0.05     0.34     1.30     6.42     0.64R    0.01  
Everton          21   28   +7      -3.78    28.57     2.72    55.12     5.80    12.76     0.04     0.40     2.30     6.39    23.70     0.07R    0.00  
Southampton      21   27   +4      -5.65    19.56    -1.65    52.43     5.71     7.14     0.01     0.14     0.80     2.55    11.59     0.21R    0.00  
West_Brom        21   27   -5       2.50    65.92     1.09    47.13     5.53    -9.95     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.20     1.54     2.40R    0.05  
Chelsea          21   24   -3     -12.42     2.84   -14.61    52.91     5.78     5.37     0.01     0.13     0.86     2.88    12.94     0.19R    0.00  
Norwich          21   23  -11       0.41    53.78    -0.79    41.68     5.63   -18.51     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.02     0.16    15.58R    0.74  
Bournemouth      21   21  -14      -0.04    51.01    -0.61    38.22     5.57   -24.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04    35.21R    3.27  
Swansea          21   19  -11      -6.09    16.91    -5.45    38.79     5.56   -16.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04    28.12R    2.25  
Sunderland       21   18  -15      -3.07    31.59    -2.27    33.93     5.30   -26.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    66.46R   10.30  
Newcastle        21   18  -16      -2.49    35.35    -2.13    35.58     5.48   -25.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    54.30R    7.44  
Aston_Villa      21   11  -20      -7.86     8.53    -4.58    25.72     5.10   -33.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    96.59R   75.94  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Friday 15 January 2016, Brentford 1 3 Burnley; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Middlesbrough   25   55  +25      10.11    92.97     9.46    93.04     6.29    37.96    66.23    87.45    99.93    91.67P    0.00     0.00  
Hull            26   50  +20       3.73    68.89     4.80    85.69     6.15    32.19    16.32    48.36    98.49    65.69P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           26   49  +20       3.26    66.98     4.64    84.81     6.26    32.48    12.95    42.50    97.52    60.37P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley         27   48  +18       1.82    59.18     4.34    80.12     6.16    26.84     3.76    16.34    90.91    39.45P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich         26   44   +5       5.27    76.11     0.21    74.38     6.28     9.54     0.48     2.99    62.41    14.40P    0.00     0.00  
Brighton        26   44   +4       7.88    85.81     2.67    71.78     6.14     5.17     0.15     1.15    44.47     8.72P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed       26   42   +9       5.34    76.46     7.11    70.31     6.22    10.62     0.08     0.81    37.97     7.30P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham      26   40   +3       5.27    76.75     3.95    66.14     6.26     1.48     0.02     0.17    15.58     2.49P    0.01R    0.00  
Cardiff         26   37   +2       1.62    59.06     1.77    65.04     6.21     3.10     0.01     0.07    12.56     2.22P    0.02R    0.00  
Wolverhampton   26   37   +1      -1.65    41.55    -3.69    65.92     6.27     3.39     0.00     0.11    15.38     3.13P    0.02R    0.00  
Brentford       27   36   -1      -1.83    40.94    -2.20    63.65     6.19     1.48     0.00     0.03     8.64     1.62P    0.08R    0.00  
Reading         26   34   +2      -0.36    48.88     3.55    60.59     6.22     1.20     0.00     0.00     3.84     0.63P    0.19R    0.00  
Preston         26   34   +0      -0.21    49.54     1.15    60.04     6.20    -1.26     0.00     0.00     3.03     0.54P    0.23R    0.01  
Nott'm_Forest   26   32   +1      -4.00    29.95    -0.02    59.11     6.22     0.77     0.00     0.01     2.25     0.40P    0.50R    0.02  
Leeds_United    26   32   -3      -0.15    49.93     1.57    57.35     6.13    -5.45     0.00     0.00     1.16     0.16P    0.91R    0.03  
Huddersfield    26   31   -1      -1.77    41.19     3.51    55.11     6.21    -5.87     0.00     0.00     0.59     0.11P    2.21R    0.09  
QPR             26   31   -3      -5.71    22.72    -4.66    59.93     6.43    -0.46     0.00     0.01     3.39     0.74P    0.48R    0.02  
Blackburn       25   29   +1      -6.50    18.66    -1.27    57.98     6.35     1.74     0.00     0.01     1.68     0.33P    0.83R    0.02  
Fulham          26   27   -4      -6.33    20.20     0.52    52.13     6.35    -7.98     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.03P    6.84R    0.59  
Rotherham       26   24  -12      -3.48    32.28     0.60    44.88     6.03   -22.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    37.67R    7.10  
MK_Dons         26   23  -17      -5.79    21.61    -6.98    45.52     6.16   -24.24     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   34.70R    6.44  
Bristol_City    26   21  -23      -6.06    20.40    -9.63    42.02     6.16   -33.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    60.08R   17.92  
Charlton        26   20  -26      -5.99    19.54   -11.85    39.74     5.83   -37.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    74.74R   29.27  
Bolton          26   17  -21     -10.79     5.58    -9.57    38.06     5.93   -30.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    80.49R   38.51  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 12 January 2016, Coventry 1 1 Walsall; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Burton_Albion    24   51  +13      15.59    98.30     9.17    82.83     6.93    15.63    22.57    40.76    89.20    50.07P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham       26   50  +19       8.49    86.40     9.99    82.10     6.59    26.12    20.06    38.73    89.58    50.14P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall          25   49  +18       9.14    88.92     9.74    83.35     6.56    26.24    25.18    45.65    92.69    57.46P    0.00     0.00  
Coventry         26   48  +22       5.62    76.40    11.84    80.38     6.47    29.46    13.67    30.01    85.23    43.75P    0.00     0.00  
Wigan            26   45  +14      -0.87    44.98    -1.18    80.39     6.42    25.83    13.27    29.25    85.06    48.54P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough     25   40  +14      -0.57    46.98     4.17    75.16     6.73    23.82     3.79    10.22    60.29    23.59P    0.01R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd        25   37   +5      -2.26    38.38    -2.44    70.19     6.70    11.58     0.68     2.38    28.73     9.25P    0.10R    0.00  
Millwall         25   37   +3      -0.31    48.65    -1.51    68.27     6.80     6.62     0.36     1.33    19.85     5.84P    0.24R    0.00  
Southend         25   37   -1       5.78    78.35     3.51    63.42     6.60    -4.37     0.03     0.19     5.61     1.07P    1.70R    0.01  
Port_Vale        25   36   +2       2.31    62.54     2.80    63.90     6.55     0.65     0.04     0.19     6.36     1.40P    1.22R    0.02  
Rochdale         25   34   +4      -1.57    42.11     2.18    65.24     6.72     7.45     0.09     0.37    10.43     2.62P    0.89R    0.02  
Doncaster        25   34   -2      -0.66    46.78    -2.50    62.65     6.67    -2.22     0.03     0.11     4.79     1.07P    2.18R    0.02  
Bradford         23   34   -2       3.50    69.38    -0.70    66.08     6.93    -0.91     0.17     0.63    12.04     2.90P    0.83R    0.00  
Bury             24   33   -4       4.22    72.04     2.69    59.72     6.93    -9.61     0.02     0.05     2.32     0.45P    6.77R    0.16  
Scunthorpe       25   32   -3       0.27    52.09     1.02    59.24     6.59    -5.51     0.01     0.02     1.64     0.34P    6.22R    0.14  
Swindon          25   31   -4      -6.36    20.17    -8.56    62.07     6.73    -0.73     0.02     0.09     4.18     1.08P    3.00R    0.04  
Chesterfield     26   30   -7      -5.61    23.44    -6.60    57.60     6.44    -6.94     0.00     0.00     0.74     0.16P    9.42R    0.22  
Barnsley         24   27   -7      -5.64    22.38    -6.23    56.76     6.83    -7.96     0.00     0.01     0.79     0.17P   12.85R    0.52  
Fleetwood_Town   24   26   -2      -4.68    26.27     1.36    54.02     6.78    -5.14     0.00     0.00     0.32     0.07P   21.98R    1.29  
Shrewsbury       25   26  -11      -4.63    27.45    -5.24    51.17     6.65   -16.63     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.01P   38.87R    2.84  
Blackpool        25   25  -13      -4.41    27.92    -6.14    50.34     6.53   -17.94     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P   44.28R    4.14  
Oldham           24   21  -12      -7.02    15.98    -4.49    45.89     6.57   -20.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   69.45R   12.71  
Colchester       25   21  -25      -4.14    28.70    -8.15    42.24     6.38   -38.32     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   87.68R   32.23  
Crewe            24   20  -21      -2.81    34.88    -4.72    40.31     6.23   -37.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    92.32R   45.63  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 12 January 2016, Morecambe 1 1 Exeter; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Plymouth             26   52  +17       9.18    88.80     6.54    84.75     6.36    24.79    29.13    70.76    97.09    77.74P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton          25   52  +15      12.96    95.66     7.81    85.51     6.75    22.05    33.73    73.09    97.07    78.37P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           25   48  +19       7.57    84.62     9.91    82.02     6.58    26.72    18.18    55.79    93.08    65.48P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           25   44  +22       2.64    63.46    11.36    78.73     6.68    30.84     9.06    37.36    84.94    51.12P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       26   43  +10       5.40    75.82     6.90    72.25     6.46    12.86     1.06     8.49    50.44    18.02P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              24   40   +8       2.08    60.91     0.58    74.36     6.90    14.17     2.61    15.72    62.14    28.15P    0.00R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   22   39  +12       7.90    86.51    10.89    74.26     7.46    15.39     3.43    17.49    61.05    25.96P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield            25   38  +10       4.46    72.75    10.93    65.37     6.60     8.05     0.09     1.22    15.97     4.12P    0.01R    0.00  
Leyton_Orient        25   37   +5      -6.28    20.76    -8.80    73.60     6.79    16.99     2.05    13.43    59.76    29.43P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle             23   37   +3       5.83    78.94     4.16    68.38     7.28     2.06     0.47     4.04    29.04     8.65P    0.00R    0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon        25   36   +4       1.97    60.75     4.45    64.35     6.61     3.25     0.07     0.77    12.20     3.07P    0.03R    0.01  
Cambridge_Utd        26   36   +0       2.32    62.55     3.43    61.44     6.46    -3.40     0.02     0.26     5.25     1.18P    0.08R    0.01  
Crawley_Town         26   34  -11      -0.94    45.43    -9.68    61.55     6.65   -10.98     0.01     0.22     5.28     1.38P    0.20R    0.04  
Morecambe            24   32   +1      -0.81    46.27     1.56    62.96     7.01     1.87     0.05     0.62     9.99     2.61P    0.10R    0.01  
Exeter               25   31   -6      -1.38    43.59    -2.68    57.53     6.68    -9.76     0.00     0.04     1.76     0.40P    0.73R    0.11  
Barnet               26   31   -8       0.95    55.73     1.27    54.37     6.44   -14.70     0.00     0.00     0.48     0.10P    2.29R    0.51  
Luton                25   30   +0      -5.38    24.16    -1.54    60.65     6.74     2.68     0.01     0.18     5.02     1.38P    0.21R    0.03  
Notts_County         24   30   -7      -4.59    27.52    -9.33    62.68     7.16    -3.38     0.03     0.51     9.07     2.77P    0.18R    0.03  
Stevenage            26   27  -12      -7.42    16.84    -9.73    53.58     6.51   -13.57     0.00     0.00     0.33     0.08P    3.01R    0.76  
Newport_County       24   20  -12      -7.85    13.39    -4.19    45.99     6.72   -18.56     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    22.24R    8.88  
Hartlepool           21   20  -15      -1.45    42.31    -3.79    45.12     7.02   -29.25     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00    29.35R   13.16  
Dag_&_Red            25   19  -19      -9.13    10.25    -9.07    42.53     6.50   -27.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    41.94R   20.85  
Yeovil               25   17  -15     -13.80     2.67   -10.04    42.62     6.62   -19.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    39.21R   18.18  
York                 24   16  -21     -10.31     6.49   -10.92    39.63     6.61   -31.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    60.43R   37.43  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 9 January 2016, Aldershot 3 1 Chester; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Cheltenham       28   60  +34       3.53    67.19     6.36    95.87     5.69    51.17    74.44    99.88    84.07P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     27   55  +20       7.17    82.44     3.36    86.81     6.33    28.81    10.05    92.86    30.29P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          27   52  +32      -1.62    40.53     6.67    87.27     6.04    45.89    13.52    95.30    45.12P    0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic   29   49  +10       5.49    74.76     4.61    74.40     5.83    13.05     0.11    31.14     4.83P    0.00     0.00  
Eastleigh        26   48  +11       6.39    79.58     2.04    79.57     6.47    17.39     1.52    64.36    12.41P    0.00     0.00  
Woking           29   47  +15      -0.57    47.04     3.10    73.93     5.76    20.52     0.10    30.68     6.10P    0.00     0.00  
Macclesfield     30   47  +12       0.29    51.39     3.80    72.19     5.56    16.81     0.02    19.41     3.67P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         29   44   +8      -5.79    23.72    -7.06    73.01     5.85    16.46     0.04    24.69     6.28P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City     29   42   +5       1.78    58.89     4.62    65.36     5.79     4.78     0.00     2.72     0.39P    0.01R    0.00  
Gateshead        27   41   -6       3.73    68.78    -5.91    64.65     6.19    -9.92     0.00     2.58     0.32P    0.07R    0.00  
Wrexham          27   40   +9      -1.99    40.07     1.67    67.64     6.14    11.30     0.00     7.22     1.29P    0.00R    0.00  
Braintree_Town   24   40   +9       4.65    74.02     5.26    73.33     6.70    13.72     0.19    27.55     5.01P    0.00R    0.00  
Bromley          27   38   +2       3.11    65.73     6.57    62.55     6.42    -1.23     0.00     1.46     0.18P    0.22R    0.01  
Southport        28   37   -8       5.91    78.56     3.31    58.16     5.76   -13.32     0.00     0.08     0.01P    1.12R    0.05  
Aldershot        29   35  -10      -1.02    45.47    -4.07    57.09     5.71   -11.86     0.00     0.03     0.00P    1.54R    0.08  
Chester          29   34   -9       1.06    56.17     2.27    55.09     5.68   -12.72     0.00     0.01     0.00     3.38R    0.22  
Barrow           28   33  -17       4.76    73.81     0.77    52.18     5.92   -26.29     0.00     0.01     0.00P   11.73R    1.27  
Guiseley         28   31  -17       2.62    64.32    -1.14    47.62     5.60   -29.61     0.00     0.00     0.00    32.80R    5.12  
Halifax          28   28  -19      -6.60    20.42   -11.92    48.82     5.87   -26.16     0.00     0.00     0.00    25.37R    4.16  
Boreham_Wood     28   27   -6      -4.59    28.39     3.11    48.40     5.84   -10.30     0.00     0.00     0.00P   24.95R    3.72  
Altrincham       26   27  -17       1.44    59.37    -1.27    49.58     6.17   -24.47     0.00     0.01     0.00    22.57R    3.64  
Welling          26   24  -14      -3.91    29.97    -2.51    45.58     5.99   -22.84     0.00     0.00     0.00    44.42R   10.55  
Torquay          27   20  -24     -11.24     6.12   -14.15    45.37     6.23   -25.40     0.00     0.00     0.00    46.10R   12.46  
Kidderminster    26   14  -20     -14.90     1.39    -9.51    37.65     6.23   -25.75     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.70R   58.70