Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 14 January 2016 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 13 January 2016, Chelsea 2 2 West_Brom; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Arsenal          21   43  +16       3.50    69.64    -0.60    74.72     5.56    29.04    44.56    77.96    90.88    96.39    99.46     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        21   43  +13      13.20    97.47    11.60    67.32     5.73    14.18     6.60    21.97    49.20    69.39    90.06     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         21   40  +18      -2.37    34.14    -4.08    74.20     5.50    35.29    43.49    76.92    90.31    96.07    99.45     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        21   36  +17       1.08    56.14     7.82    64.36     5.72    24.61     3.30    12.29    31.76    53.62    81.53     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham         21   35   +9       5.15    78.18     7.55    58.89     5.75     9.88     0.40     2.07     7.45    16.83    44.49     0.00R    0.00  
Man_Utd          21   34   +7      -2.14    36.92    -3.88    62.54     5.70    14.74     1.38     6.65    19.61    37.54    69.78     0.00     0.00  
Stoke            21   32   +2       3.37    69.95     2.01    54.60     5.62     1.10     0.04     0.27     1.56     4.52    17.61     0.06R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   21   31   +3       4.45    76.11     5.90    52.09     5.58    -0.01     0.02     0.10     0.59     1.86     8.91     0.17R    0.00  
Liverpool        21   31   -2       0.01    50.25    -5.12    57.36     5.85     2.59     0.13     0.99     4.41    10.77    32.95     0.01R    0.00  
Watford          21   29   +1       3.93    73.02     6.96    50.38     5.76    -2.01     0.00     0.04     0.32     1.11     5.85     0.59R    0.01  
Everton          21   28   +7      -3.80    28.64     2.68    55.16     5.78    12.83     0.05     0.44     2.24     6.32    23.79     0.06R    0.00  
Southampton      21   27   +4      -5.54    19.99    -1.48    52.33     5.72     6.98     0.01     0.14     0.72     2.38    11.39     0.21R    0.00  
West_Brom        21   27   -5       2.59    66.45     1.24    47.07     5.54   -10.06     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.21     1.45     2.39R    0.04  
Chelsea          21   24   -3     -12.50     2.83   -14.74    52.94     5.81     5.43     0.01     0.14     0.88     2.98    13.10     0.20R    0.01  
Norwich          21   23  -11       0.62    54.95    -0.42    41.48     5.66   -18.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.14    16.91R    0.89  
Bournemouth      21   21  -14      -0.09    50.96    -0.68    38.34     5.53   -24.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    34.78R    3.17  
Swansea          21   19  -11      -6.13    16.96    -5.52    38.87     5.57   -16.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03    27.65R    2.18  
Sunderland       21   18  -15      -3.12    31.65    -2.37    33.97     5.33   -26.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    66.11R   10.48  
Newcastle        21   18  -16      -2.56    34.85    -2.26    35.58     5.45   -25.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    54.34R    7.49  
Aston_Villa      21   11  -20      -7.84     8.68    -4.61    25.80     5.11   -33.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    96.52R   75.73  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 13 January 2016, Hull 2 0 Cardiff; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Middlesbrough   25   55  +25      10.08    92.86     9.42    93.11     6.36    38.06    67.38    88.29    99.89    92.22P    0.00     0.00  
Hull            26   50  +20       3.73    69.03     4.81    85.72     6.14    32.19    16.47    50.12    98.48    66.94P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           26   49  +20       3.34    67.18     4.75    84.80     6.23    32.47    13.11    44.26    97.63    61.63P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley         26   45  +16       0.72    53.39     3.19    78.27     6.36    24.48     2.22    11.27    84.49    33.89P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich         26   44   +5       5.22    75.83     0.13    74.40     6.28     9.60     0.55     3.35    62.70    15.05P    0.00     0.00  
Brighton        26   44   +4       7.78    85.95     2.54    71.81     6.17     5.21     0.16     1.34    44.92     9.01P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed       26   42   +9       5.56    77.55     7.38    70.15     6.24    10.38     0.07     0.79    37.29     7.16P    0.00R    0.00  
Birmingham      26   40   +3       5.41    77.14     4.11    66.10     6.25     1.43     0.01     0.16    15.65     2.46P    0.01R    0.00  
Cardiff         26   37   +2       1.48    58.39     1.57    65.10     6.28     3.20     0.00     0.09    13.02     2.47P    0.03R    0.00  
Wolverhampton   26   37   +1      -1.46    42.65    -3.41    65.83     6.29     3.26     0.01     0.17    15.20     3.31P    0.01R    0.00  
Brentford       26   36   +1      -1.13    44.48    -1.21    65.34     6.35     4.01     0.00     0.11    14.24     2.77P    0.05R    0.00  
Reading         26   34   +2      -0.57    47.39     3.23    60.82     6.26     1.50     0.00     0.01     4.05     0.71P    0.22R    0.00  
Preston         26   34   +0      -0.01    50.48     1.40    59.90     6.18    -1.44     0.00     0.01     2.89     0.52P    0.24R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   26   32   +1      -3.99    29.94    -0.02    59.16     6.22     0.79     0.00     0.00     2.32     0.44P    0.46R    0.01  
Leeds_United    26   32   -3      -0.20    49.62     1.49    57.41     6.08    -5.36     0.00     0.00     1.08     0.18P    0.94R    0.02  
Huddersfield    26   31   -1      -1.66    41.66     3.67    55.04     6.23    -5.97     0.00     0.00     0.61     0.11P    2.36R    0.10  
QPR             26   31   -3      -5.99    21.82    -5.03    60.11     6.47    -0.16     0.00     0.00     3.61     0.76P    0.46R    0.01  
Blackburn       25   29   +1      -6.47    18.59    -1.21    57.99     6.33     1.75     0.00     0.01     1.74     0.35P    0.83R    0.03  
Fulham          26   27   -4      -6.40    19.94     0.45    52.06     6.31    -8.04     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.03P    6.67R    0.59  
Rotherham       26   24  -12      -3.37    32.42     0.84    44.81     5.97   -22.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    37.75R    7.03  
MK_Dons         26   23  -17      -5.68    22.14    -6.81    45.37     6.17   -24.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    35.59R    6.75  
Bristol_City    26   21  -23      -6.23    19.75    -9.92    42.06     6.16   -32.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    59.36R   17.51  
Charlton        26   20  -26      -5.78    20.38   -11.56    39.54     5.80   -37.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    75.71R   30.70  
Bolton          26   17  -21     -10.93     5.50    -9.82    38.21     5.94   -30.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    79.31R   37.25  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 12 January 2016, Coventry 1 1 Walsall; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Burton_Albion    24   51  +13      15.59    98.16     9.19    82.81     6.92    15.58    22.46    40.88    89.36    49.84P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham       26   50  +19       8.63    86.79    10.24    81.96     6.61    25.91    19.77    37.89    89.13    49.38P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall          25   49  +18       9.19    89.43     9.85    83.30     6.58    26.14    25.21    45.92    92.56    57.58P    0.00     0.00  
Coventry         26   48  +22       5.52    76.34    11.71    80.34     6.50    29.40    13.82    30.02    85.23    44.45P    0.00     0.00  
Wigan            26   45  +14      -0.92    44.62    -1.24    80.45     6.44    25.90    13.71    29.81    85.21    48.97P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough     25   40  +14      -0.39    48.01     4.46    75.08     6.74    23.68     3.67    10.14    60.03    23.31P    0.01R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd        25   37   +5      -2.21    38.27    -2.43    70.13     6.66    11.53     0.59     2.21    28.31     8.97P    0.11R    0.00  
Millwall         25   37   +3      -0.35    48.36    -1.54    68.28     6.81     6.64     0.37     1.38    19.88     5.72P    0.31R    0.00  
Southend         25   37   -1       5.55    77.16     3.20    63.58     6.63    -4.14     0.05     0.22     6.02     1.28P    1.65R    0.01  
Port_Vale        25   36   +2       2.40    63.15     2.91    63.89     6.52     0.65     0.04     0.21     6.66     1.38P    1.22R    0.01  
Rochdale         25   34   +4      -1.66    41.45     2.00    65.37     6.73     7.68     0.08     0.37    10.81     2.76P    0.85R    0.01  
Doncaster        25   34   -2      -0.48    47.70    -2.31    62.52     6.66    -2.36     0.03     0.12     4.56     1.06P    2.26R    0.02  
Bradford         23   34   -2       3.69    70.22    -0.42    65.86     6.97    -1.21     0.15     0.61    11.54     2.78P    0.96R    0.00  
Bury             24   33   -4       4.19    71.80     2.61    59.81     6.91    -9.51     0.03     0.08     2.52     0.51P    6.38R    0.17  
Scunthorpe       25   32   -3       0.20    51.76     0.92    59.32     6.61    -5.38     0.00     0.03     1.68     0.35P    6.49R    0.12  
Swindon          25   31   -4      -6.44    19.99    -8.66    62.13     6.72    -0.67     0.01     0.10     4.42     1.21P    3.00R    0.06  
Chesterfield     26   30   -7      -5.69    23.02    -6.76    57.72     6.47    -6.79     0.00     0.01     0.85     0.22P    9.07R    0.27  
Barnsley         24   27   -7      -5.63    22.48    -6.14    56.72     6.91    -8.02     0.00     0.01     0.82     0.17P   13.40R    0.59  
Fleetwood_Town   24   26   -2      -4.73    25.68     1.25    54.14     6.70    -4.98     0.00     0.00     0.28     0.03P   21.26R    1.17  
Shrewsbury       25   26  -11      -4.80    26.58    -5.47    51.26     6.65   -16.46     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.02P   38.36R    2.79  
Blackpool        25   25  -13      -4.23    28.62    -5.89    50.23     6.55   -18.07     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P   45.23R    4.21  
Oldham           24   21  -12      -6.99    16.34    -4.40    45.82     6.60   -20.14     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   69.86R   13.08  
Colchester       25   21  -25      -4.22    28.82    -8.38    42.25     6.41   -38.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    87.40R   32.16  
Crewe            24   20  -21      -2.75    35.52    -4.68    40.35     6.27   -37.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    92.19R   45.31  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 12 January 2016, Morecambe 1 1 Exeter; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Plymouth             26   52  +17       9.11    88.61     6.46    84.89     6.35    24.93    29.80    71.68    97.23    78.40P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton          25   52  +15      13.00    95.60     7.86    85.43     6.77    21.92    32.83    72.58    96.96    77.95P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           25   48  +19       7.47    84.19     9.78    82.13     6.61    26.86    18.77    56.35    93.36    66.28P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           25   44  +22       2.66    63.71    11.43    78.67     6.70    30.77     8.88    37.21    84.77    50.76P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       26   43  +10       5.22    74.89     6.68    72.32     6.52    12.94     1.12     8.88    51.22    18.69P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              24   40   +8       2.21    61.79     0.72    74.28     6.84    14.08     2.54    15.11    61.96    27.48P    0.00     0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   22   39  +12       7.94    86.77    11.00    74.16     7.47    15.25     3.26    16.88    60.75    25.31P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield            25   38  +10       4.63    73.31    11.14    65.29     6.58     7.93     0.10     1.14    15.53     4.01P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient        25   37   +5      -6.16    21.29    -8.60    73.54     6.84    16.90     2.07    13.59    59.61    29.41P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle             23   37   +3       5.76    78.64     4.01    68.48     7.27     2.25     0.46     3.96    29.24     8.52P    0.01R    0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon        25   36   +4       2.32    62.69     5.00    64.08     6.65     2.89     0.06     0.75    11.83     3.02P    0.04R    0.01  
Cambridge_Utd        26   36   +0       2.29    62.43     3.33    61.45     6.42    -3.38     0.01     0.21     5.29     1.18P    0.07R    0.01  
Crawley_Town         26   34  -11      -1.12    44.78    -9.91    61.63     6.60   -10.90     0.01     0.23     5.32     1.41P    0.14R    0.02  
Morecambe            24   32   +1      -0.82    46.23     1.56    62.97     6.95     1.87     0.05     0.60     9.84     2.66P    0.10R    0.01  
Exeter               25   31   -6      -1.36    43.41    -2.70    57.51     6.69    -9.79     0.00     0.05     1.75     0.40P    0.72R    0.15  
Barnet               26   31   -8       0.97    56.05     1.36    54.31     6.49   -14.78     0.00     0.01     0.50     0.08P    2.31R    0.53  
Luton                25   30   +0      -5.46    23.50    -1.71    60.68     6.71     2.73     0.01     0.17     5.01     1.35P    0.20R    0.04  
Notts_County         24   30   -7      -4.74    26.80    -9.57    62.78     7.16    -3.20     0.03     0.62     9.50     3.00P    0.20R    0.03  
Stevenage            26   27  -12      -7.57    16.49    -9.95    53.64     6.52   -13.48     0.00     0.00     0.30     0.06P    2.93R    0.70  
Newport_County       24   20  -12      -7.75    13.55    -4.03    46.02     6.70   -18.59     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   22.00R    8.75  
Hartlepool           21   20  -15      -1.43    42.34    -3.77    45.15     7.02   -29.20     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.01P   29.56R   13.03  
Dag_&_Red            25   19  -19      -9.12    10.20    -9.04    42.50     6.42   -27.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    42.19R   20.98  
Yeovil               25   17  -15     -13.77     2.59   -10.01    42.60     6.63   -19.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    39.34R   18.50  
York                 24   16  -21     -10.38     6.32   -11.01    39.72     6.59   -31.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    60.18R   37.25  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 9 January 2016, Aldershot 3 1 Chester; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Cheltenham       28   60  +34       3.71    68.05     6.72    95.71     5.68    50.90    74.11    99.88    83.88P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     27   55  +20       7.35    83.30     3.66    86.66     6.31    28.59    10.10    92.37    29.88P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          27   52  +32      -1.57    40.80     6.79    87.21     6.00    45.77    13.78    95.35    45.07P    0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic   29   49  +10       5.35    74.42     4.35    74.54     5.81    13.28     0.10    31.56     4.90P    0.00     0.00  
Eastleigh        26   48  +11       6.21    78.72     1.77    79.69     6.48    17.56     1.54    64.88    12.70P    0.00     0.00  
Woking           29   47  +15      -0.53    46.96     3.19    73.81     5.79    20.36     0.10    30.00     6.04P    0.00     0.00  
Macclesfield     30   47  +12       0.43    52.12     3.94    72.16     5.58    16.74     0.01    19.43     3.72P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         29   44   +8      -5.98    22.98    -7.36    73.16     5.88    16.68     0.07    25.39     6.49P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City     29   42   +5       1.84    59.20     4.72    65.36     5.81     4.77     0.00     2.79     0.37P    0.01R    0.00  
Gateshead        27   41   -6       3.75    68.94    -5.91    64.73     6.23    -9.82     0.00     2.68     0.32P    0.05R    0.00  
Wrexham          27   40   +9      -2.03    39.93     1.59    67.69     6.19    11.38     0.01     7.37     1.38P    0.00R    0.00  
Braintree_Town   24   40   +9       4.84    75.11     5.52    73.17     6.69    13.48     0.18    26.61     5.04P    0.00R    0.00  
Bromley          27   38   +2       2.88    64.19     6.20    62.68     6.42    -0.98     0.00     1.52     0.19P    0.29R    0.02  
Southport        28   37   -8       5.98    78.86     3.42    58.13     5.77   -13.37     0.00     0.10     0.01P    1.13R    0.03  
Aldershot        29   35  -10      -0.83    46.41    -3.85    57.09     5.73   -11.91     0.00     0.06     0.00P    1.67R    0.10  
Chester          29   34   -9       1.04    56.02     2.16    55.14     5.64   -12.66     0.00     0.02     0.00     3.26R    0.20  
Barrow           28   33  -17       4.72    73.39     0.68    52.22     5.95   -26.22     0.00     0.01     0.00    11.80R    1.21  
Guiseley         28   31  -17       2.57    64.22    -1.15    47.61     5.59   -29.61     0.00     0.00     0.00    32.49R    5.07  
Halifax          28   28  -19      -6.54    20.50   -11.82    48.78     5.86   -26.24     0.00     0.00     0.00    25.50R    4.21  
Boreham_Wood     28   27   -6      -4.71    27.77     3.00    48.49     5.85   -10.19     0.00     0.00     0.00    23.94R    3.68  
Altrincham       26   27  -17       1.46    59.63    -1.21    49.56     6.19   -24.49     0.00     0.00     0.00    22.58R    3.76  
Welling          26   24  -14      -4.02    29.40    -2.66    45.64     5.99   -22.72     0.00     0.00     0.00    43.95R   10.43  
Torquay          27   20  -24     -11.21     6.36   -14.06    45.20     6.22   -25.63     0.00     0.00     0.00    47.15R   12.78  
Kidderminster    26   14  -20     -14.97     1.31    -9.69    37.67     6.14   -25.67     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.17R   58.51