Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Tuesday 12 January 2016 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 12 January 2016, Aston_Villa 1 0 Crystal_Palace; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Arsenal          20   42  +16       4.13    74.13    -0.02    75.23     5.79    29.08    42.36    77.94    91.27    96.42    99.38     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        20   40  +12      11.65    96.18    10.68    64.97     5.93    11.92     2.90    11.95    31.85    53.03    80.68     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         20   39  +18      -1.57    38.66    -3.68    75.41     5.73    36.81    47.64    80.76    92.43    96.98    99.47     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        20   36  +18       2.50    64.84     8.83    66.42     5.98    26.63     5.48    19.52    46.97    67.10    88.21     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham         21   35   +9       5.25    78.86     7.71    58.84     5.70     9.79     0.25     1.68     6.99    16.52    44.51     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          21   34   +7      -2.13    36.92    -3.80    62.61     5.66    14.86     1.09     5.87    19.41    38.22    70.91     0.00     0.00  
Crystal_Palace   21   31   +3       4.47    75.89     5.95    52.07     5.57    -0.04     0.00     0.08     0.51     1.90     9.06     0.16R    0.00  
Liverpool        20   30   -2       0.19    51.57    -5.37    57.56     6.03     2.27     0.19     1.22     4.85    11.98    34.90     0.02R    0.00  
Watford          20   29   +3       4.47    75.82     7.80    51.71     5.97    -0.05     0.01     0.09     0.69     2.22     9.75     0.37R    0.00  
Stoke            20   29   +0       2.66    66.92     1.28    52.99     5.80    -0.89     0.01     0.17     0.93     2.84    12.22     0.20R    0.00  
Everton          20   27   +7      -3.76    28.61     2.08    54.62     5.99    11.33     0.04     0.41     2.10     6.16    22.01     0.08R    0.00  
West_Brom        20   26   -5       2.49    66.11     0.42    46.60     5.65   -11.29     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.20     1.51     3.02R    0.06  
Southampton      20   24   +2      -6.23    16.68    -2.15    50.77     5.88     5.07     0.00     0.07     0.41     1.54     7.67     0.57R    0.01  
Chelsea          20   23   -3     -11.65     3.23   -13.97    54.18     5.97     6.68     0.02     0.23     1.51     4.83    19.13     0.16R    0.00  
Norwich          20   23   -9       1.02    57.44     0.03    42.87     5.88   -16.64     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.05     0.40    11.67R    0.48  
Bournemouth      21   21  -14      -0.18    50.19    -0.79    38.33     5.60   -24.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04    34.69R    2.76  
Swansea          20   19   -9      -5.12    20.56    -4.20    41.22     5.79   -12.60     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.01     0.15    16.15R    0.82  
Newcastle        21   18  -16      -2.48    35.57    -2.12    35.52     5.44   -25.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    55.03R    6.58  
Sunderland       20   15  -17      -4.52    22.68    -4.07    31.42     5.43   -29.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    81.14R   19.67  
Aston_Villa      21   11  -20      -7.84     8.55    -4.62    25.78     5.10   -33.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    96.73R   69.62  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 12 January 2016, Blackburn 1 1 QPR; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Middlesbrough   25   55  +25      10.10    92.87     9.45    93.14     6.30    38.09    70.17    89.60    99.93    92.94P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           26   49  +20       3.23    66.92     4.60    84.85     6.26    32.53    13.73    48.13    97.64    64.40P    0.00     0.00  
Hull            25   47  +18       3.13    66.31     4.24    84.24     6.39    30.36    12.69    42.58    96.66    61.28P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley         26   45  +16       0.69    53.29     3.17    78.26     6.35    24.50     2.51    12.48    84.02    34.42P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich         26   44   +5       5.13    75.20     0.05    74.49     6.30     9.71     0.55     3.82    62.40    15.59P    0.00     0.00  
Brighton        26   44   +4       7.87    86.01     2.65    71.81     6.16     5.20     0.19     1.56    44.23     8.99P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed       26   42   +9       5.39    76.63     7.17    70.27     6.24    10.55     0.11     0.97    37.33     7.46P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham      26   40   +3       5.30    76.60     3.98    66.19     6.25     1.55     0.01     0.21    15.49     2.52P    0.01R    0.00  
Cardiff         25   37   +4       1.87    60.23     2.22    66.29     6.43     4.97     0.02     0.25    17.36     3.46P    0.01R    0.00  
Wolverhampton   26   37   +1      -1.54    42.31    -3.48    65.85     6.28     3.26     0.01     0.18    15.08     3.18P    0.02R    0.00  
Brentford       26   36   +1      -1.26    43.53    -1.45    65.40     6.39     4.11     0.01     0.16    14.16     2.88P    0.04R    0.00  
Reading         26   34   +2      -0.37    48.46     3.51    60.71     6.25     1.36     0.00     0.01     3.91     0.63P    0.20R    0.01  
Preston         26   34   +0       0.05    50.85     1.44    59.85     6.19    -1.51     0.00     0.02     2.87     0.49P    0.25R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   26   32   +1      -4.08    29.47    -0.12    59.17     6.22     0.88     0.00     0.01     2.20     0.42P    0.45R    0.02  
Leeds_United    26   32   -3      -0.15    49.96     1.56    57.38     6.11    -5.38     0.00     0.00     1.08     0.19P    0.91R    0.05  
Huddersfield    26   31   -1      -1.78    41.12     3.49    55.12     6.26    -5.86     0.00     0.00     0.61     0.09P    2.22R    0.10  
QPR             26   31   -3      -5.73    22.74    -4.66    59.93     6.43    -0.45     0.00     0.00     3.24     0.66P    0.41R    0.01  
Blackburn       25   29   +1      -6.38    19.08    -1.12    57.95     6.35     1.72     0.00     0.00     1.67     0.39P    0.86R    0.04  
Fulham          26   27   -4      -6.38    20.05     0.39    52.05     6.31    -8.06     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.02P    6.83R    0.61  
Rotherham       26   24  -12      -3.28    33.03     0.96    44.73     5.95   -22.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    37.93R    7.14  
MK_Dons         26   23  -17      -5.69    21.90    -6.92    45.38     6.13   -24.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    35.42R    6.44  
Bristol_City    26   21  -23      -6.08    20.43    -9.72    41.97     6.16   -33.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    59.86R   17.98  
Charlton        26   20  -26      -5.92    20.09   -11.71    39.62     5.82   -37.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    74.94R   29.91  
Bolton          26   17  -21     -10.89     5.61    -9.72    38.13     5.95   -30.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    79.65R   37.70  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 12 January 2016, Coventry 1 1 Walsall; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Burton_Albion    24   51  +13      15.64    98.33     9.23    82.73     6.92    15.48    22.09    40.08    88.98    49.15P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham       26   50  +19       8.57    86.58    10.18    82.00     6.58    26.01    19.63    38.26    89.22    49.72P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall          25   49  +18       9.16    89.13     9.81    83.37     6.61    26.23    25.43    45.85    92.41    57.33P    0.00     0.00  
Coventry         26   48  +22       5.48    76.06    11.63    80.44     6.51    29.53    13.96    30.44    85.51    44.55P    0.00     0.00  
Wigan            26   45  +14      -1.01    44.25    -1.38    80.53     6.39    25.99    13.71    29.69    85.78    48.91P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough     25   40  +14      -0.61    46.55     4.15    75.18     6.73    23.90     3.74    10.44    60.47    23.71P    0.02R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd        25   37   +5      -2.33    37.85    -2.57    70.24     6.71    11.71     0.69     2.24    28.97     9.38P    0.12R    0.00  
Millwall         25   37   +3      -0.33    48.52    -1.54    68.27     6.77     6.63     0.37     1.28    19.82     5.80P    0.28R    0.01  
Southend         25   37   -1       5.67    77.72     3.40    63.42     6.60    -4.41     0.03     0.14     5.57     1.15P    1.64R    0.02  
Port_Vale        25   36   +2       2.41    63.32     2.94    63.82     6.54     0.55     0.03     0.17     6.52     1.38P    1.25R    0.01  
Rochdale         25   34   +4      -1.59    42.00     2.13    65.27     6.72     7.57     0.10     0.43    10.49     2.72P    0.88R    0.01  
Doncaster        25   34   -2      -0.48    47.89    -2.31    62.51     6.61    -2.40     0.03     0.12     4.33     0.94P    2.25R    0.03  
Bradford         23   34   -2       3.48    69.37    -0.74    66.07     6.93    -0.93     0.15     0.66    11.93     2.82P    0.85R    0.01  
Bury             24   33   -4       4.18    72.00     2.59    59.81     6.88    -9.46     0.02     0.07     2.25     0.47P    6.65R    0.16  
Scunthorpe       25   32   -3       0.35    52.61     1.13    59.26     6.59    -5.45     0.00     0.01     1.58     0.31P    6.27R    0.12  
Swindon          25   31   -4      -6.23    20.78    -8.35    62.00     6.73    -0.88     0.01     0.09     4.15     1.14P    3.00R    0.04  
Chesterfield     26   30   -7      -5.55    23.90    -6.50    57.62     6.49    -6.93     0.00     0.01     0.80     0.22P    9.54R    0.21  
Barnsley         24   27   -7      -5.56    22.52    -6.13    56.68     6.87    -8.06     0.00     0.01     0.81     0.20P   13.27R    0.63  
Fleetwood_Town   24   26   -2      -4.72    26.06     1.28    54.18     6.75    -4.97     0.00     0.00     0.30     0.08P   21.45R    1.21  
Shrewsbury       25   26  -11      -4.63    27.52    -5.22    51.10     6.61   -16.70     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P   39.27R    2.88  
Blackpool        25   25  -13      -4.47    27.73    -6.24    50.35     6.53   -17.90     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P   44.00R    4.01  
Oldham           24   21  -12      -7.02    16.18    -4.49    45.85     6.57   -20.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    69.70R   12.90  
Colchester       25   21  -25      -4.26    28.31    -8.34    42.29     6.41   -38.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    87.32R   32.20  
Crewe            24   20  -21      -2.76    35.47    -4.64    40.34     6.30   -37.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   92.26R   45.55  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 12 January 2016, Morecambe 1 1 Exeter; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Plymouth             26   52  +17       9.20    88.90     6.58    84.81     6.39    24.84    29.57    71.04    97.11    78.09P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton          25   52  +15      13.05    95.89     7.95    85.34     6.80    21.78    32.76    72.36    96.77    77.65P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           25   48  +19       7.45    84.21     9.79    82.11     6.64    26.84    18.91    56.63    93.24    66.53P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           25   44  +22       2.70    63.68    11.48    78.69     6.68    30.80     8.92    37.80    84.79    51.40P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       26   43  +10       5.33    75.60     6.81    72.21     6.51    12.76     1.10     8.60    50.45    18.18P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              24   40   +8       2.29    62.09     0.85    74.30     6.87    14.05     2.55    15.46    61.95    27.55P    0.00     0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   22   39  +12       8.01    86.91    11.07    74.15     7.47    15.24     3.44    16.83    60.55    25.43P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield            25   38  +10       4.55    73.06    11.07    65.30     6.60     7.93     0.09     1.17    15.88     3.97P    0.01R    0.00  
Leyton_Orient        25   37   +5      -6.04    21.34    -8.43    73.42     6.76    16.72     1.96    12.91    59.00    28.75P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle             23   37   +3       5.77    78.73     4.04    68.50     7.38     2.22     0.55     4.40    29.84     9.12P    0.01R    0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon        25   36   +4       2.03    61.05     4.56    64.35     6.65     3.23     0.05     0.86    12.53     3.19P    0.04R    0.01  
Cambridge_Utd        26   36   +0       2.20    61.76     3.21    61.54     6.42    -3.20     0.01     0.24     5.43     1.22P    0.10R    0.01  
Crawley_Town         26   34  -11      -1.09    45.05    -9.92    61.61     6.65   -10.90     0.01     0.23     5.45     1.41P    0.17R    0.02  
Morecambe            24   32   +1      -0.77    46.39     1.61    62.90     6.97     1.76     0.03     0.65     9.78     2.55P    0.12R    0.02  
Exeter               25   31   -6      -1.40    43.32    -2.77    57.57     6.67    -9.66     0.00     0.06     1.75     0.43P    0.75R    0.12  
Barnet               26   31   -8       0.95    55.70     1.26    54.30     6.53   -14.76     0.00     0.01     0.49     0.12P    2.44R    0.59  
Luton                25   30   +0      -5.37    24.09    -1.58    60.64     6.73     2.66     0.01     0.21     5.11     1.40P    0.19R    0.03  
Notts_County         24   30   -7      -4.74    27.00    -9.59    62.85     7.19    -3.09     0.03     0.56     9.52     2.93P    0.21R    0.04  
Stevenage            26   27  -12      -7.36    16.86    -9.65    53.47     6.50   -13.74     0.00     0.00     0.33     0.08P    2.95R    0.73  
Newport_County       24   20  -12      -7.83    13.47    -4.14    46.00     6.75   -18.57     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    22.41R    9.21  
Hartlepool           21   20  -15      -1.43    42.35    -3.78    45.10     6.99   -29.25     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00P   29.84R   13.30  
Dag_&_Red            25   19  -19      -9.07    10.32    -8.99    42.46     6.44   -27.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    42.42R   21.00  
Yeovil               25   17  -15     -13.95     2.55   -10.28    42.81     6.66   -19.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   38.28R   17.97  
York                 24   16  -21     -10.49     6.17   -11.16    39.78     6.62   -30.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    60.08R   36.95  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 9 January 2016, Aldershot 3 1 Chester; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Cheltenham       28   60  +34       3.63    67.79     6.54    95.75     5.72    51.00    73.94    99.89    83.86P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     27   55  +20       7.33    82.94     3.63    86.70     6.35    28.66    10.06    92.62    29.79P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          27   52  +32      -1.66    40.14     6.61    87.30     5.99    45.93    13.83    95.41    45.85P    0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic   29   49  +10       5.45    75.03     4.52    74.50     5.82    13.23     0.12    31.46     4.84P    0.00     0.00  
Eastleigh        26   48  +11       6.21    79.12     1.74    79.76     6.44    17.69     1.68    65.42    12.78P    0.00     0.00  
Woking           29   47  +15      -0.67    46.72     2.98    73.92     5.73    20.52     0.11    30.64     6.14P    0.00     0.00  
Macclesfield     30   47  +12       0.31    51.41     3.78    72.22     5.53    16.84     0.03    19.43     3.49P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         29   44   +8      -5.91    23.07    -7.24    73.05     5.86    16.51     0.04    24.85     6.37P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City     29   42   +5       1.83    59.14     4.67    65.36     5.78     4.74     0.00     2.63     0.34P    0.01R    0.00  
Gateshead        27   41   -6       3.83    69.26    -5.75    64.58     6.16   -10.06     0.00     2.40     0.31P    0.05R    0.00  
Wrexham          27   40   +9      -1.96    40.09     1.78    67.60     6.19    11.23     0.01     7.15     1.26P    0.00R    0.00  
Braintree_Town   24   40   +9       4.84    75.31     5.53    73.16     6.71    13.48     0.18    26.51     4.78P    0.00     0.00  
Bromley          27   38   +2       3.05    65.26     6.46    62.56     6.42    -1.18     0.00     1.46     0.18P    0.22R    0.01  
Southport        28   37   -8       5.97    78.81     3.35    58.20     5.77   -13.29     0.00     0.09     0.01P    1.07R    0.04  
Aldershot        29   35  -10      -0.96    45.85    -4.04    57.09     5.72   -11.86     0.00     0.04     0.00P    1.58R    0.08  
Chester          29   34   -9       0.92    55.59     2.02    55.20     5.67   -12.58     0.00     0.01     0.00     3.21R    0.20  
Barrow           28   33  -17       4.77    73.77     0.85    52.25     5.95   -26.20     0.00     0.01     0.00    11.49R    1.18  
Guiseley         28   31  -17       2.43    63.56    -1.35    47.68     5.58   -29.48     0.00     0.00     0.00    32.27R    5.01  
Halifax          28   28  -19      -6.57    20.47   -11.89    48.78     5.87   -26.25     0.00     0.00     0.00    25.48R    4.09  
Boreham_Wood     28   27   -6      -4.55    28.52     3.20    48.37     5.84   -10.36     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.66R    3.77  
Altrincham       26   27  -17       1.43    59.37    -1.25    49.56     6.23   -24.48     0.00     0.00     0.00    22.98R    3.70  
Welling          26   24  -14      -3.95    29.66    -2.59    45.61     6.04   -22.81     0.00     0.00     0.00    44.25R   10.87  
Torquay          27   20  -24     -11.14     6.60   -14.03    45.28     6.20   -25.51     0.00     0.00     0.00    46.52R   12.32  
Kidderminster    26   14  -20     -14.87     1.38    -9.52    37.59     6.18   -25.78     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.21R   58.73