Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Monday 11 January 2016 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 3 January 2016, Crystal_Palace 0 3 Chelsea; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Arsenal          20   42  +16       4.12    74.05     0.00    75.29     5.80    29.16    42.18    77.26    90.95    96.43    99.45     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        20   40  +12      11.60    96.33    10.59    64.98     5.94    11.97     2.90    11.64    30.93    52.05    80.60     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         20   39  +18      -1.53    38.93    -3.53    75.43     5.70    36.84    47.31    80.42    92.13    96.91    99.50     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        20   36  +18       2.52    65.01     8.89    66.42     5.92    26.63     5.23    19.08    45.84    66.67    88.65     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          20   33   +7      -1.32    41.75    -3.11    63.64     5.90    15.79     1.91     8.36    24.62    45.02    75.82     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham         20   32   +7       4.33    75.43     6.74    56.98     5.95     7.49     0.15     0.94     4.20    10.65    32.51     0.03R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   20   31   +4       5.76    82.42     6.84    53.92     5.81     1.59     0.03     0.23     1.27     3.83    16.10     0.10R    0.00  
Liverpool        20   30   -2       0.23    51.57    -5.30    57.46     6.05     2.16     0.19     1.12     4.67    11.52    34.29     0.03R    0.00  
Watford          20   29   +3       4.36    75.35     7.57    51.75     5.91     0.04     0.01     0.09     0.61     2.06     9.77     0.43R    0.00  
Stoke            20   29   +0       2.70    66.93     1.32    52.96     5.79    -0.93     0.02     0.15     0.89     2.74    12.20     0.20R    0.00  
Everton          20   27   +7      -3.69    28.83     2.18    54.56     5.96    11.21     0.05     0.39     1.92     5.67    21.79     0.13R    0.00  
West_Brom        20   26   -5       2.53    66.39     0.46    46.53     5.65   -11.38     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.18     1.33     3.32R    0.02  
Southampton      20   24   +2      -6.44    15.60    -2.43    50.84     5.89     5.20     0.00     0.05     0.40     1.54     8.08     0.56R    0.00  
Chelsea          20   23   -3     -11.63     3.15   -13.94    54.24     5.93     6.75     0.03     0.27     1.53     4.68    19.20     0.16R    0.00  
Norwich          20   23   -9       0.94    57.16    -0.13    42.99     5.86   -16.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.46    11.46R    0.29  
Bournemouth      20   21  -12       0.58    55.09     0.01    39.88     5.83   -21.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.09    25.71R    1.05  
Swansea          20   19   -9      -4.93    21.58    -3.93    41.07     5.79   -12.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.16    17.28R    0.55  
Newcastle        20   17  -16      -2.38    35.69    -2.74    35.14     5.57   -26.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    60.19R    5.36  
Sunderland       20   15  -17      -4.44    22.99    -3.96    31.36     5.44   -29.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    82.14R   14.24  
Aston_Villa      20    8  -21      -9.54     3.59    -5.53    23.71     5.30   -35.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.26R   78.49  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 2 January 2016, Birmingham 2 1 Brentford; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Middlesbrough   24   52  +24       8.86    90.60     9.02    91.55     6.56    37.15    60.40    84.67    99.76    89.78P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           25   48  +20       3.98    70.72     5.15    86.03     6.39    33.71    21.94    57.66    98.35    71.30P    0.00     0.00  
Hull            25   47  +18       3.17    66.57     4.26    84.26     6.36    30.32    14.89    42.80    96.98    61.99P    0.00     0.00  
Brighton        25   44   +6       8.68    88.93     3.94    73.90     6.33     8.17     0.64     3.44    59.34    14.15P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley         25   42  +11       1.21    56.40     1.32    75.48     6.60    17.94     1.36     6.58    70.87    24.56P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich         25   41   +4       4.29    72.05     0.10    72.97     6.51     8.78     0.52     2.90    54.33    13.47P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed       25   39   +8       4.34    72.67     6.92    69.08     6.43    10.16     0.10     0.80    32.37     6.82P    0.00R    0.00  
Birmingham      25   39   +3       5.67    78.70     4.03    66.20     6.43     1.04     0.04     0.30    17.27     2.89P    0.01R    0.00  
Cardiff         25   37   +4       1.90    60.64     2.29    66.21     6.41     4.92     0.03     0.23    18.09     3.64P    0.02R    0.00  
Brentford       25   36   +2      -0.26    49.07    -0.95    66.66     6.55     4.97     0.04     0.39    20.53     4.53P    0.02R    0.00  
Wolverhampton   25   34   +0      -2.53    36.90    -3.49    64.75     6.49     3.14     0.02     0.15    13.19     3.11P    0.06R    0.00  
Reading         25   33   +2      -0.46    47.97     2.82    60.30     6.40     0.26     0.01     0.03     4.08     0.77P    0.37R    0.01  
Leeds_United    25   32   -2       0.53    53.70     1.56    58.60     6.31    -4.59     0.00     0.00     2.16     0.37P    0.89R    0.04  
Nott'm_Forest   25   31   +1      -3.41    32.12     0.31    59.86     6.44     1.32     0.00     0.02     3.50     0.70P    0.50R    0.01  
Preston         25   31   -1      -1.31    43.63     0.79    57.96     6.35    -2.83     0.00     0.01     1.86     0.39P    1.04R    0.03  
QPR             25   30   -3      -5.53    23.03    -4.87    60.03     6.66    -0.86     0.00     0.01     3.98     0.85P    0.72R    0.03  
Blackburn       24   28   +1      -5.91    20.35    -0.97    58.59     6.52     2.11     0.00     0.01     2.62     0.59P    0.93R    0.04  
Huddersfield    25   28   -6      -1.62    41.63     1.07    52.90     6.41   -11.71     0.00     0.00     0.29     0.04P    6.80R    0.59  
Fulham          25   27   -3      -5.47    23.51     0.55    52.99     6.55    -7.85     0.00     0.00     0.38     0.06P    6.77R    0.61  
MK_Dons         25   23  -12      -6.12    20.08    -4.77    47.61     6.39   -17.91     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P   25.52R    4.45  
Rotherham       25   21  -14      -4.58    25.98    -0.44    42.46     6.10   -25.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    58.09R   17.33  
Bristol_City    25   21  -22      -5.20    23.67    -9.54    43.52     6.34   -31.78     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    53.61R   15.67  
Charlton        25   20  -21      -6.13    18.62    -9.35    41.49     6.06   -31.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    66.27R   23.36  
Bolton          25   17  -20     -10.08     6.59    -9.74    38.98     6.07   -29.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.38R   37.82  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 9 January 2016, Blackpool 0 1 Port_Vale; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Burton_Albion    24   51  +13      15.65    98.40     9.27    82.75     6.92    15.50    20.35    38.60    88.96    48.07P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham       26   50  +19       8.55    86.38    10.08    82.06     6.61    26.06    18.51    37.04    89.09    48.82P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall          24   48  +18       9.43    90.62     9.70    83.59     6.80    26.05    25.53    45.56    92.32    57.36P    0.00     0.00  
Coventry         25   47  +22       6.05    78.78    11.94    80.86     6.70    29.61    15.47    31.62    86.05    45.23P    0.00     0.00  
Wigan            25   44  +14      -0.46    46.73    -1.04    81.37     6.62    26.63    15.69    32.95    87.39    51.84P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough     25   40  +14      -0.31    48.42     4.58    74.94     6.73    23.52     3.06     8.97    58.91    22.06P    0.01R    0.00  
Millwall         25   37   +3      -0.36    48.23    -1.57    68.34     6.80     6.73     0.37     1.29    20.21     5.93P    0.28R    0.00  
Southend         25   37   -1       5.68    78.05     3.38    63.44     6.59    -4.33     0.03     0.14     5.57     1.03P    1.65R    0.01  
Sheff_Utd        24   36   +5      -1.95    39.64    -2.54    69.96     6.90    10.74     0.67     2.37    27.81     9.13P    0.12R    0.00  
Port_Vale        25   36   +2       2.42    63.24     2.94    63.84     6.58     0.62     0.04     0.18     6.40     1.45P    1.27R    0.02  
Rochdale         25   34   +4      -1.58    41.88     2.14    65.31     6.73     7.59     0.06     0.38    10.50     2.85P    0.90R    0.00  
Doncaster        25   34   -2      -0.58    47.23    -2.49    62.58     6.64    -2.31     0.02     0.12     4.70     1.06P    2.11R    0.03  
Bradford         23   34   -2       3.50    69.34    -0.73    66.02     6.92    -0.98     0.16     0.60    11.63     2.72P    0.74R    0.01  
Bury             24   33   -4       4.04    71.30     2.36    59.89     6.87    -9.27     0.01     0.05     2.33     0.44P    6.13R    0.13  
Scunthorpe       25   32   -3       0.28    52.19     1.02    59.22     6.62    -5.54     0.00     0.02     1.60     0.35P    6.65R    0.16  
Swindon          25   31   -4      -6.43    20.23    -8.67    62.11     6.78    -0.66     0.02     0.09     4.44     1.24P    3.04R    0.05  
Chesterfield     26   30   -7      -5.63    23.41    -6.69    57.71     6.49    -6.80     0.00     0.01     0.84     0.18P    9.15R    0.27  
Barnsley         24   27   -7      -5.66    22.25    -6.23    56.73     6.91    -7.97     0.00     0.01     0.81     0.18P   13.26R    0.56  
Fleetwood_Town   24   26   -2      -4.65    26.19     1.34    54.12     6.72    -4.99     0.00     0.00     0.31     0.05P   21.41R    1.17  
Shrewsbury       25   26  -11      -4.73    26.45    -5.47    51.15     6.62   -16.59     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.01P   38.97R    2.81  
Blackpool        25   25  -13      -4.32    28.41    -6.03    50.31     6.53   -17.95     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P   44.37R    3.96  
Oldham           24   21  -12      -6.95    16.34    -4.39    45.81     6.57   -20.14     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   70.07R   12.82  
Colchester       25   21  -25      -4.15    28.75    -8.26    42.22     6.38   -38.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    87.46R   32.19  
Crewe            24   20  -21      -2.73    35.64    -4.64    40.29     6.26   -37.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    92.41R   45.80  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 9 January 2016, Barnet 1 0 Bristol_Rovers; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Plymouth             25   52  +18      10.37    92.25     7.27    86.59     6.54    26.45    41.19    79.08    98.34    84.30P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton          24   49  +14      11.56    94.02     7.17    83.25     6.99    20.12    21.92    61.06    93.51    68.24P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           25   48  +19       7.39    83.78     9.69    82.18     6.63    26.94    18.24    57.07    93.45    66.79P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           25   44  +22       2.46    62.58    11.15    78.84     6.70    31.00     9.11    38.57    85.44    52.08P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       26   43  +10       5.22    74.98     6.66    72.33     6.49    12.93     1.10     8.94    50.47    18.51P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              24   40   +8       2.20    61.73     0.72    74.25     6.86    14.03     2.39    15.48    61.87    27.70P    0.00     0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   22   39  +12       7.80    86.23    10.72    74.38     7.47    15.61     3.38    17.75    61.68    26.56P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield            25   38  +10       4.64    73.70    11.21    65.14     6.56     7.75     0.07     1.13    15.01     3.81P    0.01R    0.00  
Leyton_Orient        25   37   +5      -6.07    21.78    -8.46    73.46     6.82    16.81     1.93    13.47    58.97    29.12P    0.00R    0.00  
Carlisle             23   37   +3       5.89    79.10     4.21    68.43     7.33     2.08     0.46     4.23    29.05     8.75P    0.01R    0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon        25   36   +4       2.05    61.11     4.59    64.22     6.66     3.08     0.07     0.88    11.99     3.15P    0.04R    0.01  
Cambridge_Utd        26   36   +0       2.30    62.08     3.39    61.48     6.41    -3.40     0.01     0.19     5.22     1.16P    0.10R    0.01  
Crawley_Town         26   34  -11      -0.95    45.47    -9.73    61.63     6.64   -10.88     0.01     0.23     5.48     1.42P    0.12R    0.01  
Morecambe            23   31   +1      -0.30    48.87     1.81    63.63     7.23     2.27     0.09     1.02    12.09     3.48P    0.10R    0.02  
Barnet               26   31   -8       1.08    56.59     1.47    54.25     6.47   -14.88     0.00     0.01     0.46     0.08P    2.36R    0.59  
Luton                25   30   +0      -5.53    23.28    -1.81    60.76     6.71     2.86     0.01     0.18     5.18     1.50P    0.15R    0.02  
Exeter               24   30   -6      -1.25    43.67    -3.08    57.75     6.87   -10.04     0.00     0.07     2.08     0.47P    0.87R    0.15  
Notts_County         24   30   -7      -4.69    27.16    -9.49    62.81     7.13    -3.16     0.03     0.63     9.35     2.80P    0.19R    0.03  
Stevenage            26   27  -12      -7.48    16.49    -9.81    53.59     6.53   -13.61     0.00     0.00     0.33     0.08P    2.80R    0.66  
Newport_County       24   20  -12      -7.97    13.06    -4.37    46.09     6.73   -18.46     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   21.92R    8.82  
Hartlepool           21   20  -15      -1.36    42.96    -3.66    45.06     6.98   -29.39     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00    29.75R   13.45  
Dag_&_Red            25   19  -19      -9.05    10.30    -8.97    42.51     6.44   -27.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    41.99R   20.46  
Yeovil               25   17  -15     -13.63     2.80    -9.82    42.58     6.64   -19.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    39.15R   18.13  
York                 24   16  -21     -10.31     6.49   -10.86    39.63     6.64   -31.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    60.44R   37.62  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 9 January 2016, Aldershot 3 1 Chester; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Cheltenham       28   60  +34       3.68    67.96     6.59    95.78     5.71    51.08    74.74    99.85    84.54P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     27   55  +20       7.24    82.81     3.49    86.71     6.31    28.71     9.88    92.43    29.93P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          27   52  +32      -1.48    41.23     6.93    87.15     6.01    45.68    13.43    95.13    44.61P    0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic   29   49  +10       5.30    74.41     4.31    74.58     5.81    13.34     0.13    31.96     4.92P    0.00     0.00  
Eastleigh        26   48  +11       6.11    78.47     1.62    79.79     6.39    17.77     1.46    65.48    12.73P    0.00     0.00  
Woking           29   47  +15      -0.58    47.16     3.09    73.91     5.80    20.50     0.12    30.27     6.04P    0.00     0.00  
Macclesfield     30   47  +12       0.34    51.64     3.81    72.17     5.54    16.78     0.00    19.26     3.73P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         29   44   +8      -5.92    23.11    -7.25    73.10     5.87    16.60     0.05    25.09     6.48P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City     29   42   +5       1.89    59.49     4.79    65.31     5.82     4.70     0.00     2.60     0.37P    0.01R    0.00  
Gateshead        27   41   -6       3.79    69.27    -5.83    64.61     6.17    -9.99     0.00     2.43     0.29P    0.05R    0.00  
Wrexham          27   40   +9      -1.72    41.49     2.04    67.52     6.14    11.13     0.01     6.82     1.26P    0.00R    0.00  
Braintree_Town   24   40   +9       4.81    75.19     5.51    73.25     6.72    13.60     0.17    26.95     4.85P    0.00     0.00  
Bromley          27   38   +2       2.87    64.31     6.20    62.65     6.41    -1.05     0.00     1.55     0.21P    0.25R    0.01  
Southport        28   37   -8       5.99    78.90     3.44    58.22     5.78   -13.30     0.00     0.11     0.01P    1.08R    0.05  
Aldershot        29   35  -10      -0.94    46.08    -4.02    57.07     5.69   -11.91     0.00     0.04     0.00P    1.59R    0.10  
Chester          29   34   -9       0.87    55.08     1.95    55.19     5.69   -12.57     0.00     0.02     0.00P    3.36R    0.21  
Barrow           28   33  -17       4.72    73.42     0.64    52.22     5.93   -26.23     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.47R    1.09  
Guiseley         28   31  -17       2.68    64.78    -0.98    47.52     5.56   -29.77     0.00     0.00     0.00    32.77R    5.30  
Halifax          28   28  -19      -6.41    20.89   -11.64    48.72     5.91   -26.34     0.00     0.00     0.00    25.98R    4.26  
Boreham_Wood     28   27   -6      -4.68    28.08     3.09    48.46     5.87   -10.25     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.44R    3.66  
Altrincham       26   27  -17       1.42    59.26    -1.30    49.60     6.17   -24.44     0.00     0.00     0.00    22.36R    3.61  
Welling          26   24  -14      -3.94    29.98    -2.51    45.57     6.05   -22.86     0.00     0.00     0.00    44.48R   10.72  
Torquay          27   20  -24     -11.28     6.12   -14.23    45.29     6.23   -25.47     0.00     0.00     0.00    46.35R   12.55  
Kidderminster    26   14  -20     -15.01     1.34    -9.73    37.65     6.19   -25.70     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.82R   58.44