Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Saturday 2 January 2016 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 2 January 2016, Arsenal 1 0 Newcastle; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Arsenal          20   42  +16       4.14    74.13     0.00    75.30     5.79    29.21    41.62    76.89    90.74    96.21    99.34     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        20   40  +12      11.60    96.11    10.63    65.00     5.93    11.99     2.91    11.18    30.29    51.48    80.30     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         20   39  +18      -1.48    39.30    -3.59    75.48     5.69    36.95    47.17    80.04    92.19    96.91    99.49     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        19   35  +18       3.02    68.39     9.00    66.60     6.17    26.35     6.03    20.13    46.05    66.04    87.76     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          20   33   +7      -1.32    41.62    -3.20    63.66     5.87    15.79     1.76     8.13    24.00    44.17    75.36     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham         20   32   +7       4.27    74.91     6.68    56.97     5.95     7.51     0.13     0.95     3.87    10.18    31.86     0.01R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   19   31   +7       6.24    84.95     8.62    55.63     6.01     5.16     0.07     0.58     2.55     7.05    24.34     0.04R    0.00  
Liverpool        20   30   -2       0.20    51.16    -5.39    57.53     6.09     2.28     0.17     1.18     4.81    11.72    34.00     0.03R    0.00  
Watford          20   29   +3       4.33    75.25     7.57    51.79     5.96     0.11     0.01     0.11     0.66     2.02     9.58     0.42R    0.00  
Stoke            20   29   +0       2.54    66.07     1.12    53.09     5.79    -0.73     0.01     0.11     0.85     2.67    12.19     0.14R    0.00  
Everton          19   26   +7      -3.45    29.21     1.97    55.11     6.18    11.50     0.09     0.54     2.84     7.32    24.44     0.13R    0.00  
West_Brom        20   26   -5       2.54    66.47     0.52    46.45     5.67   -11.58     0.00     0.01     0.05     0.18     1.37     3.27R    0.03  
Southampton      20   24   +2      -6.35    16.05    -2.32    50.79     5.92     5.11     0.00     0.05     0.39     1.45     7.76     0.65R    0.01  
Norwich          20   23   -9       1.02    57.64    -0.00    42.87     5.84   -16.65     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.06     0.40    11.93R    0.28  
Bournemouth      20   21  -12       0.59    55.26     0.04    39.92     5.83   -21.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.08    25.63R    1.03  
Chelsea          19   20   -6     -12.38     2.11   -15.56    52.13     6.19     3.00     0.01     0.11     0.70     2.53    11.58     0.52R    0.01  
Swansea          20   19   -9      -4.95    21.67    -3.98    41.04     5.76   -12.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.13    17.28R    0.54  
Newcastle        20   17  -16      -2.46    34.95    -2.86    35.20     5.59   -26.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    59.63R    5.25  
Sunderland       20   15  -17      -4.50    22.75    -4.01    31.42     5.43   -29.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    81.95R   13.89  
Aston_Villa      20    8  -21      -9.39     3.93    -5.25    23.65     5.28   -35.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.37R   78.96  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 2 January 2016, Birmingham 2 1 Brentford; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Middlesbrough   24   52  +24       8.87    90.46     9.03    91.54     6.54    37.15    60.56    84.70    99.79    89.93P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           25   48  +20       4.08    71.19     5.30    86.00     6.39    33.63    21.50    57.10    98.24    70.92P    0.00     0.00  
Hull            25   47  +18       3.08    66.20     4.19    84.32     6.33    30.43    15.23    43.74    97.07    62.31P    0.00     0.00  
Brighton        25   44   +6       8.63    88.70     3.83    73.89     6.35     8.20     0.63     3.43    59.53    14.19P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley         25   42  +11       1.20    56.54     1.30    75.48     6.55    17.93     1.31     6.35    71.13    24.57P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich         25   41   +4       4.05    71.44    -0.20    73.13     6.49     9.05     0.55     2.83    55.52    14.12P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed       25   39   +8       4.36    72.89     6.96    69.05     6.44    10.15     0.08     0.76    32.32     6.81P    0.00R    0.00  
Birmingham      25   39   +3       5.68    78.72     4.03    66.17     6.43     1.07     0.04     0.28    16.82     2.94P    0.02R    0.00  
Cardiff         25   37   +4       1.88    60.39     2.30    66.21     6.42     4.89     0.04     0.27    18.05     3.58P    0.03R    0.00  
Brentford       25   36   +2      -0.22    48.83    -0.84    66.64     6.55     4.94     0.05     0.34    20.02     4.23P    0.03R    0.00  
Wolverhampton   25   34   +0      -2.48    36.95    -3.47    64.76     6.45     3.11     0.01     0.14    13.04     2.83P    0.05R    0.00  
Reading         25   33   +2      -0.30    48.89     3.05    60.13     6.37    -0.03     0.00     0.02     3.68     0.62P    0.42R    0.01  
Leeds_United    25   32   -2       0.75    54.67     1.85    58.42     6.28    -4.85     0.00     0.01     1.90     0.29P    0.83R    0.04  
Nott'm_Forest   25   31   +1      -3.43    32.18     0.25    59.96     6.41     1.43     0.00     0.01     3.69     0.77P    0.61R    0.02  
Preston         25   31   -1      -1.34    43.19     0.75    58.02     6.34    -2.75     0.00     0.01     1.85     0.35P    0.95R    0.03  
QPR             25   30   -3      -5.57    22.82    -4.93    60.07     6.67    -0.76     0.00     0.01     4.15     0.90P    0.71R    0.03  
Blackburn       24   28   +1      -6.00    19.82    -1.04    58.58     6.55     2.10     0.00     0.01     2.53     0.56P    0.95R    0.04  
Huddersfield    25   28   -6      -1.66    41.76     0.99    52.92     6.37   -11.67     0.00     0.00     0.28     0.03P    6.77R    0.56  
Fulham          25   27   -3      -5.55    22.92     0.39    53.06     6.54    -7.71     0.00     0.00     0.36     0.06P    6.65R    0.63  
MK_Dons         25   23  -12      -6.30    19.39    -5.02    47.74     6.41   -17.67     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   24.70R    4.17  
Rotherham       25   21  -14      -4.57    25.85    -0.42    42.49     6.10   -25.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    58.09R   17.04  
Bristol_City    25   21  -22      -4.90    24.87    -9.03    43.24     6.27   -32.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    55.09R   16.18  
Charlton        25   20  -21      -6.24    18.17    -9.60    41.59     6.05   -31.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    65.56R   22.53  
Bolton          25   17  -20     -10.00     6.83    -9.66    38.90     6.08   -29.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.56R   38.73  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 2 January 2016, Barnsley 2 1 Millwall; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Burton_Albion    24   51  +13      15.60    98.17     9.18    82.71     6.92    15.47    19.99    38.38    89.09    47.90P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham       25   50  +20       9.49    89.61    10.44    83.14     6.73    26.61    23.50    43.46    91.64    54.46P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall          24   48  +18       9.55    90.73     9.86    83.45     6.75    25.91    24.49    44.72    92.32    56.28P    0.00     0.00  
Coventry         25   47  +22       5.90    78.48    11.66    80.92     6.68    29.73    15.10    32.05    86.29    45.74P    0.00     0.00  
Wigan            24   41  +13      -1.48    41.40    -1.06    79.98     6.85    25.89    12.26    26.79    82.48    46.35P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough     25   40  +14      -0.49    47.24     4.26    75.12     6.75    23.79     3.32     9.41    60.38    23.13P    0.01R    0.00  
Southend         24   37   +1       6.29    80.47     4.07    64.83     6.80    -2.21     0.09     0.36     8.75     1.81P    1.17R    0.01  
Sheff_Utd        24   36   +5      -2.05    39.01    -2.68    69.96     6.88    10.76     0.64     2.22    28.08     8.98P    0.17R    0.00  
Rochdale         24   34   +5      -0.41    48.10     2.81    67.22     6.93     9.46     0.25     0.91    16.93     4.49P    0.51R    0.01  
Millwall         24   34   +2      -1.35    43.19    -1.63    66.53     7.02     5.44     0.16     0.74    14.54     4.04P    0.77R    0.01  
Doncaster        25   34   -2      -0.45    48.15    -2.27    62.51     6.68    -2.41     0.01     0.10     4.73     1.03P    2.45R    0.03  
Bradford         23   34   -2       3.49    69.38    -0.77    66.07     6.94    -0.90     0.14     0.58    12.16     3.06P    0.82R    0.00  
Port_Vale        24   33   +1       1.14    56.68     2.49    61.92     6.74    -0.83     0.01     0.10     4.13     0.90P    3.19R    0.05  
Bury             24   33   -4       4.17    72.04     2.51    59.82     6.87    -9.41     0.02     0.07     2.30     0.41P    6.71R    0.18  
Scunthorpe       25   32   -3       0.41    53.00     1.12    59.21     6.59    -5.52     0.00     0.02     1.66     0.31P    6.76R    0.15  
Swindon          24   28   -6      -7.00    17.28    -9.05    60.22     6.90    -3.06     0.01     0.06     2.70     0.69P    5.67R    0.17  
Barnsley         24   27   -7      -5.73    22.29    -6.35    56.77     6.93    -7.86     0.00     0.01     0.87     0.21P   14.03R    0.69  
Chesterfield     25   27   -8      -6.99    17.71    -7.34    55.42     6.67    -8.80     0.00     0.00     0.42     0.09P   17.58R    0.78  
Fleetwood_Town   24   26   -2      -4.73    25.98     1.19    54.22     6.73    -4.84     0.00     0.00     0.32     0.08P   21.61R    1.27  
Shrewsbury       25   26  -11      -4.62    27.22    -5.32    51.05     6.64   -16.71     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P   40.75R    3.29  
Blackpool        24   25  -12      -3.50    31.87    -5.81    52.05     6.75   -16.38     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.04P   35.56R    2.98  
Oldham           23   21  -11      -6.15    18.68    -4.28    47.33     6.78   -18.87     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   62.25R   10.02  
Colchester       25   21  -25      -4.13    29.02    -8.25    42.29     6.42   -38.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    87.54R   33.54  
Crewe            24   20  -21      -2.81    35.01    -4.78    40.36     6.25   -37.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    92.46R   46.83  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 2 January 2016, Bristol_Rovers 2 0 Luton; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Plymouth             25   52  +18      10.22    91.81     7.09    86.65     6.55    26.52    41.18    78.66    98.25    84.06P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton          24   49  +14      11.53    94.04     7.12    83.32     6.95    20.24    22.08    60.67    93.58    67.96P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           25   48  +19       7.52    84.34     9.86    82.05     6.66    26.78    17.58    55.64    92.55    65.37P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           25   44  +22       2.53    62.91    11.24    78.75     6.72    30.89     8.87    37.17    84.34    50.59P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       25   43  +11       6.29    79.76     7.19    74.39     6.69    14.92     2.20    14.68    62.13    25.41P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              24   40   +8       2.16    61.50     0.67    74.31     6.85    14.13     2.39    15.17    61.08    27.37P    0.00     0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   22   39  +12       7.78    86.26    10.74    74.32     7.44    15.46     3.21    17.37    60.50    25.99P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient        25   37   +5      -5.93    21.97    -8.22    73.42     6.82    16.73     1.80    12.88    57.72    28.30P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle             23   37   +3       5.96    79.17     4.36    68.27     7.33     1.91     0.42     4.03    27.80     8.47P    0.00R    0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon        25   36   +4       2.05    61.31     4.60    64.33     6.66     3.22     0.07     0.77    11.82     3.04P    0.02R    0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        25   36   +1       3.37    67.60     3.92    62.83     6.65    -2.47     0.02     0.44     7.86     1.81P    0.07R    0.01  
Mansfield            24   35   +9       3.23    67.55    10.53    63.55     6.78     6.78     0.06     0.67    10.51     2.66P    0.04R    0.02  
Morecambe            23   31   +1      -0.23    49.26     1.92    63.50     7.23     2.10     0.07     0.90    11.49     3.30P    0.11R    0.02  
Crawley_Town         25   31  -12      -2.24    38.95   -10.16    59.97     6.89   -11.99     0.01     0.13     3.58     0.87P    0.40R    0.09  
Luton                25   30   +0      -5.49    23.55    -1.72    60.75     6.74     2.81     0.01     0.16     4.94     1.39P    0.22R    0.03  
Exeter               24   30   -6      -1.18    44.13    -3.01    57.81     6.93    -9.98     0.00     0.11     2.18     0.55P    0.79R    0.17  
Notts_County         24   30   -7      -4.63    27.28    -9.39    62.71     7.18    -3.29     0.02     0.52     8.65     2.67P    0.22R    0.04  
Barnet               25   28   -9      -0.57    48.16     0.56    52.14     6.68   -16.66     0.00     0.00     0.24     0.04P    4.99R    1.42  
Stevenage            25   27  -11      -6.42    19.84    -9.34    55.10     6.71   -12.35     0.00     0.02     0.73     0.16P    1.88R    0.47  
Newport_County       24   20  -12      -7.76    13.73    -4.08    45.97     6.75   -18.65     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   21.98R    8.95  
Hartlepool           21   20  -15      -1.33    43.10    -3.58    45.06     7.00   -29.37     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00    29.50R   13.40  
Dag_&_Red            25   19  -19      -9.08    10.22    -9.02    42.47     6.48   -27.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    42.25R   21.06  
Yeovil               25   17  -15     -13.95     2.56   -10.30    42.81     6.67   -19.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    37.92R   17.41  
York                 24   16  -21     -10.37     6.24   -10.98    39.69     6.59   -31.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    59.61R   36.92  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 2 January 2016, Chester 1 1 Altrincham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Cheltenham       27   59  +34       4.41    71.90     6.85    96.84     5.86    52.16    81.11    99.89    88.27P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     27   55  +20       7.31    83.31     3.61    86.65     6.26    28.61     8.71    92.96    29.90P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          26   49  +28      -1.65    40.01     5.23    85.60     6.18    41.74     8.41    92.42    39.74P    0.00     0.00  
Eastleigh        26   48  +11       6.28    79.08     1.85    79.68     6.49    17.55     1.36    65.41    12.73P    0.00     0.00  
Macclesfield     29   47  +13       1.66    58.13     4.79    74.59     5.78    19.38     0.11    34.76     6.92P    0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic   28   46   +9       4.08    69.59     3.93    72.69     6.05    11.97     0.05    23.11     3.81P    0.00     0.00  
Woking           28   44  +13      -1.67    41.44     1.94    71.86     6.00    17.81     0.05    20.69     4.13P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City     28   42   +6       2.97    65.00     5.27    66.96     5.99     6.10     0.00     5.26     0.77P    0.01R    0.00  
Tranmere         28   41   +7      -6.99    18.86    -7.35    71.98     6.06    16.31     0.03    20.61     5.65P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead        27   41   -6       3.82    68.97    -5.77    64.51     6.13   -10.13     0.00     2.37     0.28P    0.07R    0.00  
Wrexham          26   40  +11      -1.20    43.65     2.80    69.46     6.36    13.96     0.01    12.82     2.42P    0.00     0.00  
Braintree_Town   24   40   +9       4.83    75.23     5.52    73.16     6.63    13.51     0.14    26.93     5.02P    0.00     0.00  
Bromley          26   37   +2       3.34    66.71     6.40    63.64     6.65    -0.12     0.00     2.54     0.35P    0.19R    0.00  
Southport        27   36   -8       6.11    79.79     3.21    58.30     6.00   -13.84     0.00     0.15     0.01P    1.26R    0.07  
Chester          28   34   -7       1.58    59.17     2.80    56.60     5.89   -10.43     0.00     0.04     0.00P    2.14R    0.12  
Barrow           27   33  -16       5.75    78.36     0.77    52.94     6.07   -26.07     0.00     0.01     0.00     9.13R    0.85  
Aldershot        28   32  -12      -1.82    41.56    -4.96    55.27     5.93   -14.14     0.00     0.02     0.00P    3.63R    0.25  
Guiseley         28   31  -17       2.68    64.77    -0.92    47.46     5.59   -29.87     0.00     0.00     0.00    32.30R    5.04  
Altrincham       26   27  -17       1.34    58.98    -1.35    49.62     6.21   -24.38     0.00     0.01     0.00P   21.44R    3.29  
Boreham_Wood     27   26   -6      -4.59    27.90     2.76    48.01     5.99   -11.49     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.38R    4.30  
Halifax          27   25  -20      -8.15    14.71   -12.69    46.29     6.12   -28.81     0.00     0.00     0.00    40.31R    9.26  
Welling          25   24  -10      -4.10    28.91    -0.96    47.11     6.21   -18.57     0.00     0.00     0.00    32.76R    6.84  
Torquay          27   20  -24     -11.19     6.34   -14.05    45.34     6.22   -25.47     0.00     0.00     0.00    44.92R   11.89  
Kidderminster    26   14  -20     -14.92     1.36    -9.66    37.57     6.18   -25.81     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.47R   58.09