Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 1 January 2016 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 30 December 2015, Sunderland 0 1 Liverpool; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Arsenal          19   39  +15       3.25    69.52     0.08    74.97     5.97    30.43    43.28    74.72    88.88    95.20    99.10     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        19   39  +12      12.39    97.50    11.34    66.18     6.15    13.24     4.98    16.78    37.26    58.04    83.19     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         19   36  +17      -2.53    32.32    -3.64    74.41     5.92    36.76    42.22    74.06    88.34    94.83    98.91     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        19   35  +18       2.90    67.61     8.84    66.76     6.13    26.62     6.89    21.92    46.08    65.74    87.50     0.00     0.00  
Crystal_Palace   19   31   +7       6.18    84.49     8.53    55.69     6.01     5.23     0.10     0.64     2.61     6.80    23.10     0.04R    0.00  
Man_Utd          19   30   +6      -2.37    35.02    -3.34    62.67     6.10    15.68     1.68     7.14    19.47    36.69    68.22     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        19   30   +0       1.06    56.69    -4.15    59.24     6.27     4.80     0.53     2.60     8.12    17.26    43.64     0.01R    0.00  
West_Ham         19   29   +5       3.21    70.12     5.54    54.87     6.14     4.74     0.10     0.55     2.20     5.84    20.00     0.10R    0.00  
Watford          19   29   +4       5.11    79.24     7.56    52.64     6.14     0.23     0.05     0.26     1.07     3.00    11.70     0.24R    0.00  
Stoke            19   29   +1       3.85    73.84     2.05    54.44     5.96     0.34     0.06     0.32     1.59     4.38    16.65     0.06R    0.00  
Everton          19   26   +7      -3.28    30.57     2.19    55.12     6.18    11.49     0.10     0.68     2.57     6.70    23.22     0.11R    0.00  
Southampton      19   24   +3      -5.14    20.23    -1.58    52.84     6.14     7.11     0.02     0.18     1.07     3.14    13.10     0.25R    0.00  
West_Brom        19   23   -6       1.18    58.74    -0.08    44.58     5.84   -12.83     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.07     0.68     5.78R    0.13  
Chelsea          19   20   -6     -12.35     2.38   -15.50    52.09     6.18     2.98     0.02     0.14     0.70     2.25    10.44     0.45R    0.01  
Norwich          19   20  -10      -0.56    47.38    -0.78    40.71     6.03   -18.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.18    18.99R    1.01  
Bournemouth      19   20  -12       0.61    55.27    -0.31    39.44     6.02   -23.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.12    26.01R    1.64  
Swansea          19   19   -8      -4.28    24.28    -4.03    41.96     5.94   -12.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.25    12.58R    0.54  
Newcastle        19   17  -15      -1.92    38.50    -3.25    35.57     5.69   -27.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    53.14R    5.37  
Sunderland       19   12  -19      -5.43    16.94    -4.96    29.49     5.65   -32.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.36R   27.66  
Aston_Villa      19    8  -19      -8.77     4.63    -4.52    25.20     5.52   -32.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    95.87R   63.62  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Friday 1 January 2016, Brighton 0 1 Wolverhampton; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Middlesbrough   23   49  +22       7.82    88.06     7.89    89.66     6.74    34.86    47.24    75.54    99.46    83.57P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           24   48  +22       4.77    74.98     6.38    87.42     6.59    35.77    32.97    65.27    98.79    76.61P    0.00     0.00  
Hull            25   47  +18       3.14    66.10     4.21    84.24     6.33    30.29    15.88    41.95    97.26    61.23P    0.00     0.00  
Brighton        25   44   +6       8.54    88.44     3.79    73.91     6.34     8.23     0.78     3.44    60.32    13.76P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley         24   41  +11       1.65    58.97     1.36    76.53     6.80    18.87     2.21     8.83    75.82    27.68P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich         24   40   +4       4.33    72.62    -0.32    72.93     6.72     8.27     0.67     3.06    54.30    13.57P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed       24   36   +7       2.90    66.18     6.22    67.15     6.66     8.72     0.05     0.47    23.89     5.02P    0.03R    0.00  
Brentford       24   36   +3       0.84    54.78    -0.36    68.18     6.79     6.22     0.14     0.80    28.31     6.29P    0.02R    0.00  
Birmingham      24   36   +2       4.30    73.36     3.43    64.51     6.64    -0.06     0.02     0.20    12.70     2.18P    0.09R    0.01  
Cardiff         24   34   +3       0.65    54.05     1.89    64.57     6.66     3.84     0.01     0.16    13.67     2.69P    0.09R    0.00  
Wolverhampton   25   34   +0      -2.46    37.18    -3.40    64.70     6.53     3.08     0.02     0.16    13.27     2.93P    0.08R    0.00  
Leeds_United    24   31   -2       1.33    58.31     2.20    59.19     6.47    -4.33     0.00     0.01     2.79     0.44P    1.06R    0.08  
Reading         24   30   +1      -1.60    41.67     2.63    59.11     6.60    -0.21     0.00     0.01     3.21     0.62P    1.13R    0.07  
Nott'm_Forest   24   30   +1      -3.06    33.88     0.31    60.46     6.64     1.62     0.00     0.03     4.79     0.96P    0.68R    0.03  
QPR             25   30   -3      -5.59    22.95    -4.97    60.01     6.72    -0.88     0.00     0.02     4.34     0.98P    0.96R    0.04  
Blackburn       23   28   +2      -5.02    23.64    -0.59    60.05     6.76     3.19     0.00     0.05     4.66     0.98P    0.80R    0.05  
Preston         24   28   -2      -2.44    36.96     0.47    56.72     6.55    -3.26     0.00     0.00     1.42     0.29P    2.40R    0.17  
Fulham          24   27   -2      -4.44    27.19     1.08    54.75     6.75    -6.26     0.00     0.00     0.85     0.16P    5.36R    0.60  
Huddersfield    24   25   -8      -2.67    35.78     0.06    50.62     6.51   -14.78     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.01P   15.46R    2.28  
MK_Dons         24   22  -12      -6.09    19.38    -5.18    47.67     6.57   -18.33     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   29.01R    6.03  
Rotherham       24   21  -13      -3.70    30.01    -0.17    43.48     6.29   -24.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    54.65R   17.04  
Bristol_City    24   21  -21      -4.32    27.52    -9.17    44.54     6.57   -31.43     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   50.51R   15.56  
Charlton        24   19  -21      -5.80    19.58    -9.34    41.65     6.28   -31.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    67.78R   27.65  
Bolton          24   17  -18      -9.20     8.42    -8.42    40.94     6.29   -26.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    69.88R   30.38  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 28 December 2015, Barnsley 4 2 Blackpool; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Walsall          23   48  +21      10.28    92.75    11.91    85.97     6.97    30.56    40.48    62.51    95.85    71.38P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion    23   48  +12      14.46    97.86     8.84    81.29     7.12    14.75    15.46    33.13    84.27    42.81P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham       24   47  +17       9.12    89.33     9.35    81.01     6.95    22.79    15.26    33.14    85.26    44.99P    0.00     0.00  
Coventry         24   44  +17       6.17    79.86     9.60    78.58     6.84    23.64     8.86    21.75    77.06    35.12P    0.00     0.00  
Wigan            23   40  +13      -0.89    44.48    -0.76    80.69     7.03    26.45    15.26    32.90    84.34    51.25P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough     24   37  +13      -1.68    40.77     3.98    72.98     6.95    21.94     1.87     6.37    47.78    17.76P    0.03R    0.00  
Southend         23   37   +4       6.71    82.30     5.64    67.27     7.02     2.37     0.26     1.09    17.06     4.05P    0.50R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd        23   36   +6      -0.92    44.83    -2.05    71.84     7.08    12.50     1.52     4.90    39.21    14.17P    0.07R    0.00  
Millwall         23   34   +3      -0.58    47.10    -1.57    68.45     7.29     7.34     0.51     1.93    23.19     7.18P    0.48R    0.00  
Bradford         22   34   +1       4.05    72.67     1.02    67.60     7.17     2.35     0.33     1.35    18.61     5.00P    0.60R    0.01  
Port_Vale        24   33   +1       1.08    56.30     2.33    62.02     6.72    -0.64     0.04     0.14     4.47     0.91P    2.90R    0.05  
Bury             23   33   -2       4.72    74.78     3.30    61.60     7.13    -6.77     0.04     0.17     4.62     0.98P    4.56R    0.13  
Rochdale         23   31   +2      -1.25    43.16     1.00    64.25     7.08     4.39     0.10     0.47     9.39     2.41P    1.71R    0.04  
Scunthorpe       24   31   -3       0.54    53.59     0.75    59.13     6.73    -6.16     0.01     0.04     1.88     0.35P    7.23R    0.19  
Doncaster        24   31   -5      -1.22    43.66    -4.00    59.97     6.84    -6.67     0.00     0.04     2.47     0.55P    6.04R    0.20  
Swindon          24   28   -6      -7.11    16.93    -9.21    60.29     6.93    -3.00     0.01     0.05     2.90     0.75P    5.70R    0.22  
Shrewsbury       24   26   -5      -5.34    23.48    -2.78    53.91     6.87    -8.20     0.00     0.00     0.35     0.07P   23.96R    1.70  
Blackpool        23   25  -11      -2.63    36.12    -5.48    53.26     6.98   -15.66     0.00     0.00     0.29     0.06P   29.14R    2.74  
Barnsley         23   24   -8      -7.04    16.27    -6.94    54.90     7.12    -9.21     0.00     0.00     0.62     0.16P   20.64R    1.65  
Chesterfield     24   24  -14      -6.55    18.48   -10.34    52.34     6.80   -16.93     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.03P   33.32R    3.31  
Fleetwood_Town   23   23   -4      -5.66    20.98     0.25    52.17     6.91    -7.46     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.04P   32.17R    3.26  
Oldham           22   20  -11      -5.51    20.92    -3.89    47.93     7.03   -18.52     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   58.12R   11.02  
Crewe            23   20  -16      -2.95    34.13    -2.45    42.31     6.56   -30.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.95R   35.93  
Colchester       24   20  -25      -3.93    29.46    -8.50    42.20     6.58   -39.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.85R   39.55  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 28 December 2015, Bristol_Rovers 2 1 Leyton_Orient; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Plymouth             24   49  +16       9.60    90.78     6.50    84.82     6.75    24.21    38.20    73.68    96.31    79.74P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton          23   46  +11      11.13    93.68     6.08    81.36     7.15    16.73    19.81    53.75    88.68    61.28P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           24   45  +17       6.59    81.97     8.91    79.92     6.86    24.00    15.43    47.50    86.85    57.69P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           24   41  +19       2.14    61.16    10.05    76.79     6.94    27.37     7.90    32.12    76.01    44.36P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              23   40  +10       3.06    66.50     1.99    76.77     7.04    17.76     7.46    29.89    73.62    41.97P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       24   40   +9       5.44    76.70     6.37    72.27     6.94    12.23     1.98    11.95    49.77    20.83P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle             22   37   +5       6.38    81.36     4.85    70.13     7.49     4.74     1.56     8.69    37.13    14.11P    0.00R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   21   36  +11       6.58    82.87    10.34    72.19     7.67    13.71     2.98    14.32    49.51    21.27P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient        24   36   +5      -5.64    22.25    -8.35    74.49     6.96    17.78     3.95    20.47    63.47    35.59P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        24   36   +4       3.73    69.26     5.29    65.22     6.88     2.20     0.21     1.69    15.20     4.33P    0.02R    0.01  
Mansfield            23   35  +10       4.47    74.02    11.27    64.97     6.93     7.95     0.17     1.70    15.55     4.42P    0.03R    0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon        24   33   +1       1.32    57.76     2.92    61.85     6.75    -1.01     0.03     0.46     6.48     1.65P    0.12R    0.02  
Crawley_Town         24   31   -9      -2.04    39.95    -8.95    61.75     7.05    -8.33     0.03     0.51     6.61     1.97P    0.21R    0.04  
Luton                24   30   +2      -4.56    27.10    -0.43    62.26     6.90     5.07     0.06     0.65     8.19     2.50P    0.10R    0.02  
Notts_County         23   30   -5      -3.99    29.84    -8.52    64.44     7.33    -0.72     0.19     1.69    14.02     4.95P    0.08R    0.01  
Exeter               23   30   -5      -0.02    50.34    -2.40    59.85     7.05    -7.93     0.01     0.26     4.24     1.02P    0.41R    0.07  
Morecambe            22   28   -1      -1.54    41.80     0.43    61.01     7.39    -1.31     0.04     0.64     6.98     2.03P    0.35R    0.07  
Barnet               24   28   -6      -0.32    49.41     1.72    53.77     6.89   -13.31     0.00     0.01     0.57     0.11P    2.92R    0.72  
Stevenage            24   26  -11      -6.07    20.59    -9.41    54.88     6.91   -13.32     0.00     0.02     0.77     0.19P    2.11R    0.54  
Newport_County       24   20  -12      -7.84    13.51    -4.20    45.97     6.73   -18.61     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    20.02R    7.64  
Hartlepool           21   20  -15      -1.49    42.00    -3.83    45.10     7.03   -29.26     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00    27.14R   11.55  
York                 23   16  -20      -9.44     7.96   -10.60    41.22     6.87   -29.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    47.46R   25.48  
Dag_&_Red            24   16  -20     -10.42     6.58    -9.61    40.21     6.66   -29.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    53.11R   29.86  
Yeovil               24   14  -16     -15.02     1.42   -10.42    41.00     6.85   -20.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    45.91R   23.97  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Friday 1 January 2016, Forest_Green 3 1 Torquay; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Cheltenham       27   59  +34       4.40    72.19     6.81    96.87     5.84    52.26    77.99    99.89    86.48P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     27   55  +20       7.35    83.34     3.60    86.65     6.27    28.56     8.17    92.38    28.56P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          25   48  +28      -0.68    45.35     6.13    87.26     6.39    43.75    12.29    94.38    42.79P    0.00     0.00  
Eastleigh        26   48  +11       6.27    79.16     1.82    79.62     6.41    17.49     1.14    64.34    12.23P    0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic   28   46   +9       4.07    69.58     3.93    72.67     6.03    11.91     0.04    22.09     3.52P    0.00     0.00  
Macclesfield     28   44  +12       0.19    50.80     4.02    72.38     5.95    17.53     0.05    21.58     4.40P    0.00     0.00  
Woking           27   41  +12      -2.59    37.07     2.03    70.60     6.20    17.34     0.03    15.66     3.16P    0.00R    0.00  
Tranmere         27   41   +8      -5.62    23.52    -6.47    73.81     6.23    17.98     0.08    30.18     8.20P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City     27   41   +6       3.45    67.52     5.36    67.52     6.22     6.41     0.00     6.61     0.90P    0.00R    0.00  
Wrexham          25   40  +12       0.14    50.81     3.71    71.44     6.56    15.89     0.06    20.16     3.98P    0.00     0.00  
Braintree_Town   24   40   +9       4.76    75.04     5.44    73.22     6.68    13.59     0.15    26.62     4.99P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead        26   40   -6       4.31    71.83    -5.55    65.56     6.38    -9.11     0.00     3.58     0.48P    0.03R    0.00  
Bromley          26   37   +2       3.48    67.42     6.67    63.53     6.64    -0.33     0.00     2.32     0.29P    0.15R    0.00  
Chester          27   33   -7       1.97    61.09     2.93    57.39     6.12    -9.88     0.00     0.09     0.01P    1.74R    0.10  
Southport        26   33   -9       4.71    74.75     2.43    56.04     6.15   -15.69     0.00     0.06     0.00P    3.07R    0.21  
Aldershot        27   32  -11      -1.00    45.49    -4.80    56.12     6.10   -13.97     0.00     0.04     0.01P    2.91R    0.20  
Barrow           26   32  -16       5.72    78.48     0.22    52.82     6.33   -26.92     0.00     0.01     0.00     9.97R    1.04  
Guiseley         27   30  -17       2.73    65.37    -1.40    46.56     5.65   -32.12     0.00     0.00     0.00    38.10R    6.81  
Boreham_Wood     27   26   -6      -4.73    27.38     2.54    48.15     6.00   -11.28     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.57R    4.13  
Altrincham       25   26  -17       1.51    60.08    -1.64    49.71     6.37   -24.84     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.08R    3.42  
Welling          25   24  -10      -4.26    27.70    -1.16    47.11     6.20   -18.56     0.00     0.00     0.00    32.22R    6.59  
Halifax          26   24  -20      -7.88    14.69   -12.94    46.62     6.25   -28.85     0.00     0.00     0.00    37.56R    8.66  
Torquay          27   20  -24     -11.32     6.09   -14.24    45.41     6.18   -25.34     0.00     0.00     0.00    43.38R   11.34  
Kidderminster    26   14  -20     -14.85     1.35    -9.45    37.56     6.17   -25.81     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.20R   57.49