Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 31 December 2015 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 30 December 2015, Sunderland 0 1 Liverpool; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Arsenal          19   39  +15       3.29    70.02     0.21    74.87     5.97    30.29    42.49    74.00    88.46    94.99    99.06     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        19   39  +12      12.16    97.20    10.99    66.36     6.17    13.53     5.39    17.67    38.56    59.02    83.82     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         19   36  +17      -2.59    32.27    -3.69    74.44     5.89    36.86    42.69    74.34    88.62    94.88    98.92     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        19   35  +18       2.95    68.03     8.91    66.74     6.17    26.63     7.02    21.99    45.74    65.47    87.24     0.00     0.00  
Crystal_Palace   19   31   +7       6.15    84.45     8.46    55.74     6.00     5.32     0.10     0.65     2.62     6.81    23.33     0.03R    0.00  
Man_Utd          19   30   +6      -2.30    35.43    -3.23    62.59     6.04    15.56     1.50     6.63    18.80    35.83    67.49     0.00R    0.00  
Liverpool        19   30   +0       1.03    56.75    -4.18    59.28     6.27     4.80     0.54     2.67     8.13    17.63    43.63     0.01R    0.00  
West_Ham         19   29   +5       3.17    70.14     5.44    55.01     6.11     4.97     0.08     0.53     2.22     5.87    20.66     0.07R    0.00  
Watford          19   29   +4       5.24    79.92     7.74    52.57     6.12     0.07     0.02     0.21     0.93     2.83    11.48     0.26R    0.00  
Stoke            19   29   +1       3.79    73.47     1.96    54.54     6.01     0.46     0.06     0.39     1.65     4.54    17.13     0.07R    0.00  
Everton          19   26   +7      -3.41    29.42     2.05    55.10     6.19    11.49     0.09     0.63     2.52     6.71    22.95     0.11R    0.00  
Southampton      19   24   +3      -5.03    21.08    -1.39    52.66     6.13     6.85     0.02     0.17     1.02     2.98    12.71     0.30R    0.00  
West_Brom        19   23   -6       1.08    58.28    -0.22    44.57     5.82   -12.83     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.06     0.60     5.67R    0.13  
Chelsea          19   20   -6     -12.33     2.16   -15.47    52.12     6.19     3.00     0.01     0.13     0.71     2.35    10.52     0.44R    0.00  
Norwich          19   20  -10      -0.39    48.65    -0.50    40.58     6.00   -18.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.13    19.35R    0.99  
Bournemouth      19   20  -12       0.62    55.30    -0.26    39.45     6.01   -23.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.10    25.92R    1.56  
Swansea          19   19   -8      -4.31    24.39    -4.04    41.95     5.94   -12.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.23    12.65R    0.49  
Newcastle        19   17  -15      -1.80    39.13    -3.08    35.49     5.74   -27.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    53.45R    5.74  
Sunderland       19   12  -19      -5.57    16.36    -5.28    29.70     5.62   -31.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.65R   26.31  
Aston_Villa      19    8  -19      -8.73     4.64    -4.43    25.14     5.51   -32.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    96.02R   64.76  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 29 December 2015, Brighton 0 1 Ipswich; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Middlesbrough   23   49  +22       7.88    88.26     7.96    89.65     6.75    34.84    48.56    77.19    99.42    84.51P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           24   48  +22       4.70    74.50     6.23    87.46     6.58    35.93    34.35    67.42    98.86    77.93P    0.00     0.00  
Hull            24   44  +17       1.79    59.45     3.68    82.61     6.62    29.30    12.22    34.34    94.56    55.06P    0.00     0.00  
Brighton        24   44   +7       9.87    92.05     4.70    75.70     6.57     9.76     1.59     6.66    69.77    18.40P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley         24   41  +11       1.53    58.29     1.20    76.54     6.75    18.94     2.37     9.30    75.73    28.11P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich         24   40   +4       4.31    72.39    -0.34    72.89     6.69     8.24     0.66     3.27    53.71    13.57P    0.00R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       24   36   +7       2.98    66.70     6.28    67.12     6.63     8.68     0.07     0.45    23.12     4.77P    0.02R    0.00  
Brentford       24   36   +3       0.82    54.83    -0.35    68.21     6.71     6.23     0.10     0.78    27.99     6.20P    0.01R    0.00  
Birmingham      24   36   +2       4.40    73.76     3.56    64.44     6.63    -0.17     0.03     0.19    12.01     2.12P    0.10R    0.01  
Cardiff         24   34   +3       0.77    54.71     1.99    64.50     6.62     3.72     0.02     0.17    12.80     2.60P    0.14R    0.00  
Wolverhampton   24   31   -1      -4.10    28.54    -4.35    62.66     6.64     1.45     0.00     0.06     8.28     1.92P    0.33R    0.01  
Leeds_United    24   31   -2       1.21    57.76     2.02    59.26     6.49    -4.19     0.00     0.01     2.84     0.41P    0.98R    0.04  
Reading         24   30   +1      -1.48    42.19     2.81    59.02     6.60    -0.30     0.00     0.01     2.98     0.50P    1.18R    0.09  
Nott'm_Forest   24   30   +1      -3.15    33.35     0.21    60.52     6.65     1.74     0.00     0.02     4.77     1.00P    0.72R    0.03  
QPR             24   30   -2      -4.67    26.44    -4.59    61.37     6.87     0.19     0.00     0.07     6.40     1.49P    0.67R    0.05  
Blackburn       23   28   +2      -4.94    24.11    -0.44    60.02     6.79     3.16     0.01     0.05     4.45     1.01P    0.93R    0.06  
Preston         24   28   -2      -2.36    37.48     0.56    56.63     6.56    -3.39     0.00     0.00     1.31     0.26P    2.59R    0.19  
Fulham          24   27   -2      -4.25    28.25     1.36    54.68     6.78    -6.38     0.00     0.00     0.82     0.12P    5.48R    0.59  
Huddersfield    24   25   -8      -2.66    36.00     0.09    50.59     6.55   -14.83     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.01P   15.85R    2.39  
MK_Dons         24   22  -12      -6.05    19.78    -5.08    47.69     6.62   -18.37     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   29.14R    6.05  
Rotherham       24   21  -13      -3.88    29.07    -0.41    43.64     6.34   -24.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    54.22R   17.05  
Bristol_City    24   21  -21      -4.35    27.06    -9.15    44.58     6.53   -31.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    50.39R   15.68  
Charlton        24   19  -21      -5.91    18.93    -9.50    41.74     6.26   -31.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    67.49R   27.27  
Bolton          24   17  -18      -9.23     8.40    -8.45    40.97     6.38   -26.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    69.76R   30.50  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 28 December 2015, Barnsley 4 2 Blackpool; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Walsall          23   48  +21      10.29    93.03    11.94    85.95     6.92    30.55    40.43    62.66    96.10    71.56P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion    23   48  +12      14.65    97.97     9.11    81.10     7.11    14.47    14.92    31.96    83.69    41.79P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham       24   47  +17       9.04    88.83     9.27    81.01     6.98    22.78    15.37    33.28    84.99    44.85P    0.00     0.00  
Coventry         24   44  +17       6.04    79.52     9.38    78.64     6.88    23.74     9.31    22.43    77.25    35.96P    0.00     0.00  
Wigan            23   40  +13      -0.81    45.00    -0.62    80.62     7.06    26.32    15.04    32.72    83.91    50.52P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough     24   37  +13      -1.70    40.87     3.94    72.93     6.98    21.86     2.02     6.63    47.59    17.76P    0.04R    0.00  
Southend         23   37   +4       6.62    82.23     5.48    67.38     7.04     2.54     0.32     1.19    17.47     4.29P    0.53R    0.01  
Sheff_Utd        23   36   +6      -0.87    44.94    -1.97    71.89     7.08    12.52     1.51     4.94    39.58    14.30P    0.09R    0.00  
Millwall         23   34   +3      -0.49    47.65    -1.46    68.42     7.28     7.28     0.52     1.90    22.74     7.22P    0.52R    0.00  
Bradford         22   34   +1       3.99    72.15     0.91    67.67     7.10     2.45     0.36     1.37    18.56     4.96P    0.54R    0.01  
Port_Vale        24   33   +1       1.02    56.19     2.24    62.11     6.76    -0.50     0.03     0.16     4.93     1.19P    2.79R    0.05  
Bury             23   33   -2       4.67    74.42     3.16    61.69     7.16    -6.58     0.05     0.20     4.87     0.95P    4.48R    0.11  
Rochdale         23   31   +2      -1.28    43.37     0.90    64.24     7.07     4.44     0.09     0.41     9.49     2.57P    1.70R    0.04  
Scunthorpe       24   31   -3       0.56    53.75     0.83    58.99     6.71    -6.37     0.01     0.04     1.83     0.37P    7.38R    0.25  
Doncaster        24   31   -5      -1.23    43.61    -4.02    60.01     6.83    -6.61     0.01     0.06     2.53     0.53P    5.94R    0.16  
Swindon          24   28   -6      -7.13    16.62    -9.28    60.37     6.93    -2.87     0.01     0.06     3.00     0.88P    5.51R    0.20  
Shrewsbury       24   26   -5      -5.40    23.19    -2.82    54.00     6.83    -8.15     0.00     0.00     0.34     0.08P   23.48R    1.60  
Blackpool        23   25  -11      -2.74    35.83    -5.60    53.25     7.02   -15.58     0.00     0.00     0.26     0.05P   29.36R    2.71  
Barnsley         23   24   -8      -6.93    16.68    -6.70    54.76     7.09    -9.48     0.00     0.00     0.53     0.12P   21.45R    1.69  
Chesterfield     24   24  -14      -6.59    18.10   -10.34    52.36     6.76   -16.91     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.02P   33.48R    3.19  
Fleetwood_Town   23   23   -4      -5.63    21.26     0.30    52.23     6.89    -7.39     0.00     0.00     0.18     0.04P   31.68R    3.27  
Oldham           22   20  -11      -5.58    20.86    -4.01    48.10     7.05   -18.28     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P   57.21R   10.35  
Crewe            23   20  -16      -2.87    34.71    -2.34    42.28     6.53   -30.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.20R   35.86  
Colchester       24   20  -25      -3.81    30.13    -8.32    41.97     6.54   -39.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    87.62R   40.50  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 28 December 2015, Bristol_Rovers 2 1 Leyton_Orient; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Plymouth             24   49  +16       9.41    90.56     6.22    84.88     6.76    24.37    38.68    74.01    96.38    80.09P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton          23   46  +11      11.31    94.11     6.35    81.24     7.18    16.52    19.39    53.23    88.15    60.67P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           24   45  +17       6.58    81.55     8.86    79.97     6.84    24.08    15.39    48.42    86.94    58.26P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           24   41  +19       2.09    61.19     9.97    76.78     6.91    27.36     7.89    31.67    76.01    44.03P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              23   40  +10       3.16    66.91     2.11    76.69     7.07    17.64     7.35    29.65    73.33    41.63P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       24   40   +9       5.41    76.67     6.35    72.29     6.92    12.26     1.97    12.09    49.89    20.89P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle             22   37   +5       6.53    82.16     5.01    70.05     7.52     4.59     1.51     8.56    36.79    13.83P    0.01R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   21   36  +11       6.59    83.08    10.36    72.09     7.64    13.58     2.83    13.97    49.20    21.11P    0.00R    0.00  
Leyton_Orient        24   36   +5      -5.66    22.36    -8.41    74.49     7.04    17.76     4.22    20.56    63.48    35.72P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        24   36   +4       3.81    69.98     5.39    65.10     6.90     2.05     0.18     1.68    15.08     4.31P    0.03R    0.00  
Mansfield            23   35  +10       4.38    73.44    11.13    65.14     6.98     8.20     0.23     1.94    16.08     4.67P    0.02R    0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon        24   33   +1       1.40    58.02     3.02    61.81     6.79    -1.03     0.03     0.51     6.77     1.85P    0.11R    0.02  
Crawley_Town         24   31   -9      -2.12    39.22    -9.08    61.84     7.07    -8.22     0.04     0.49     6.93     1.95P    0.17R    0.03  
Luton                24   30   +2      -4.67    26.56    -0.54    62.31     6.92     5.18     0.03     0.65     8.28     2.56P    0.10R    0.02  
Notts_County         23   30   -5      -4.08    29.51    -8.73    64.48     7.35    -0.62     0.18     1.65    14.06     4.98P    0.08R    0.01  
Exeter               23   30   -5       0.05    50.90    -2.25    59.77     7.15    -8.06     0.02     0.26     4.16     1.06P    0.45R    0.09  
Morecambe            22   28   -1      -1.54    42.08     0.43    60.99     7.42    -1.29     0.04     0.61     7.00     2.00P    0.34R    0.05  
Barnet               24   28   -6      -0.23    49.84     1.87    53.69     6.92   -13.48     0.00     0.01     0.52     0.13P    3.14R    0.79  
Stevenage            24   26  -11      -6.29    19.99    -9.74    55.08     6.88   -12.97     0.00     0.03     0.90     0.26P    1.81R    0.36  
Newport_County       24   20  -12      -7.80    13.61    -4.15    46.02     6.73   -18.61     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   19.66R    7.46  
Hartlepool           21   20  -15      -1.35    42.90    -3.69    45.04     7.00   -29.31     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    27.05R   11.41  
York                 23   16  -20      -9.35     8.30   -10.40    41.07     6.83   -30.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    48.44R   26.08  
Dag_&_Red            24   16  -20     -10.52     6.22    -9.74    40.23     6.60   -29.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    53.02R   29.77  
Yeovil               24   14  -16     -15.03     1.35   -10.37    41.04     6.86   -20.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   45.57R   23.89  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 28 December 2015, Cheltenham 1 0 Torquay; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Cheltenham       27   59  +34       4.42    71.77     6.84    96.83     5.89    52.18    79.22    99.89    87.14P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     26   52  +18       6.59    80.92     2.99    85.48     6.48    27.29     6.66    89.06    26.54P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          25   48  +28      -0.58    45.82     6.28    87.20     6.35    43.70    12.20    94.45    43.00P    0.00     0.00  
Eastleigh        26   48  +11       6.17    78.71     1.66    79.72     6.47    17.65     1.38    64.80    12.85P    0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic   28   46   +9       3.93    68.89     3.69    72.77     6.04    12.06     0.09    22.67     3.57P    0.00     0.00  
Macclesfield     28   44  +12       0.27    51.48     4.15    72.41     5.97    17.57     0.04    22.23     4.35P    0.00R    0.00  
Woking           27   41  +12      -2.65    36.87     1.93    70.62     6.20    17.39     0.03    15.90     3.19P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         27   41   +8      -5.80    22.33    -6.64    73.87     6.26    18.09     0.10    30.62     8.62P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City     27   41   +6       3.38    67.00     5.30    67.52     6.22     6.38     0.00     6.49     0.92P    0.00R    0.00  
Wrexham          25   40  +12       0.15    50.75     3.70    71.41     6.59    15.88     0.09    20.17     3.99P    0.00R    0.00  
Braintree_Town   24   40   +9       4.65    74.36     5.27    73.32     6.69    13.74     0.17    27.39     5.09P    0.00R    0.00  
Gateshead        26   40   -6       4.41    72.23    -5.36    65.54     6.38    -9.18     0.00     3.58     0.42P    0.04R    0.00  
Bromley          26   37   +2       3.37    67.13     6.47    63.62     6.64    -0.17     0.00     2.44     0.29P    0.20R    0.01  
Chester          27   33   -7       2.08    61.69     3.06    57.37     6.09    -9.90     0.00     0.12     0.01P    1.73R    0.10  
Southport        26   33   -9       4.73    74.85     2.49    55.95     6.15   -15.80     0.00     0.09     0.01P    3.22R    0.20  
Aldershot        27   32  -11      -1.12    44.98    -5.01    56.20     6.10   -13.81     0.00     0.07     0.01P    2.85R    0.20  
Barrow           26   32  -16       5.90    79.22     0.56    52.63     6.26   -27.23     0.00     0.03     0.00P   10.41R    1.08  
Guiseley         27   30  -17       2.66    64.89    -1.55    46.56     5.69   -32.15     0.00     0.00     0.00    38.80R    7.33  
Boreham_Wood     27   26   -6      -4.43    28.68     3.01    47.93     5.98   -11.59     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.47R    4.52  
Altrincham       25   26  -17       1.46    59.70    -1.68    49.73     6.33   -24.78     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.19R    3.61  
Welling          25   24  -10      -4.06    28.75    -0.96    47.02     6.18   -18.68     0.00     0.00     0.00    33.45R    6.97  
Halifax          26   24  -20      -7.73    15.05   -12.74    46.61     6.25   -28.94     0.00     0.00     0.00    38.25R    8.94  
Torquay          26   20  -22     -10.82     6.79   -13.77    46.37     6.41   -24.03     0.00     0.00     0.00    38.38R    9.59  
Kidderminster    26   14  -20     -14.97     1.36    -9.70    37.67     6.19   -25.68     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.00R   57.44