Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 25 December 2015 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 21 December 2015, Arsenal 2 1 Man_City; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Leicester        17   38  +13      13.19    98.67    10.85    67.28     6.65    13.06     6.13    19.71    42.27    62.03    85.54     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          17   36  +17       3.21    70.53     2.51    77.07     6.32    36.45    51.04    80.82    92.00    96.69    99.49     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         17   32  +14      -2.22    33.67    -4.01    74.97     6.31    37.18    36.24    71.45    86.72    93.90    98.74     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        17   29  +14       1.27    58.37     7.36    63.88     6.69    23.17     2.56    10.35    26.61    45.32    74.46     0.00R    0.00  
Man_Utd          17   29   +8      -0.89    43.42    -1.76    65.46     6.52    19.29     3.37    13.13    33.38    53.81    80.81     0.00     0.00  
Crystal_Palace   17   29   +7       7.06    88.94     8.91    57.07     6.52     6.03     0.21     1.25     4.51    10.93    32.32     0.06R    0.00  
Watford          17   28   +5       6.10    84.58     7.34    53.65     6.62     0.11     0.07     0.39     1.88     4.84    16.80     0.33R    0.00  
West_Ham         17   25   +4       2.31    66.02     5.03    53.86     6.58     4.10     0.04     0.43     1.89     4.94    17.83     0.30R    0.00  
Liverpool        17   24   -2      -1.37    40.88    -4.91    56.51     6.77     3.52     0.17     1.08     4.31    10.29    30.12     0.14R    0.00  
Everton          17   23   +7      -3.03    30.76     2.99    55.89     6.64    13.04     0.11     0.93     3.74     9.17    28.87     0.17R    0.00  
Stoke            17   23   -2       0.77    56.03    -0.74    49.62     6.37    -4.74     0.00     0.04     0.34     1.20     5.74     1.52R    0.03  
Southampton      17   21   +0      -4.72    21.11    -3.52    51.28     6.57     2.19     0.02     0.12     0.75     2.20    10.08     0.94R    0.01  
West_Brom        17   20   -6       0.97    57.73     0.23    44.56     6.33   -12.57     0.00     0.01     0.04     0.16     1.06     8.61R    0.41  
Bournemouth      17   19  -10       1.24    59.59    -0.12    40.09     6.42   -23.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.27    26.53R    2.46  
Chelsea          17   18   -6     -11.38     2.62   -15.18    53.48     6.65     3.98     0.04     0.29     1.54     4.46    17.31     0.44R    0.01  
Norwich          17   17   -9      -1.18    43.02    -0.42    40.20     6.51   -18.25     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.03     0.30    25.29R    2.68  
Newcastle        17   17  -13      -0.00    51.50    -2.26    37.86     6.23   -26.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06    39.84R    4.72  
Swansea          17   15   -9      -5.25    18.03    -4.36    40.32     6.37   -14.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.19    22.79R    1.93  
Sunderland       17   12  -15      -4.42    21.12    -4.14    31.01     5.97   -30.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    80.18R   26.38  
Aston_Villa      17    7  -17      -7.97     5.26    -3.80    26.47     6.02   -31.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    92.87R   61.36  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 20 December 2015, Leeds_United 1 0 Preston; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Middlesbrough   22   46  +21       6.83    85.29     7.85    88.57     6.90    34.62    42.82    71.97    98.90    81.04P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           22   44  +20       4.47    74.20     5.99    87.48     7.04    35.89    36.83    66.54    98.32    77.03P    0.00     0.00  
Brighton        22   43   +8      11.18    95.34     5.19    77.75     7.05    11.16     3.85    13.03    77.37    25.45P    0.00     0.00  
Hull            22   41  +15       2.67    64.96     3.29    82.20     7.03    27.04    12.52    32.90    92.54    52.60P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley         22   38  +10       2.02    61.19     1.45    76.45     7.19    18.24     3.20    10.87    73.30    28.21P    0.00R    0.00  
Ipswich         22   34   +2       1.50    58.68    -1.61    69.38     7.16     5.82     0.30     1.69    34.29     8.58P    0.01R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       22   33   +5       3.17    68.53     5.05    65.69     7.00     5.06     0.06     0.44    17.84     3.71P    0.09R    0.01  
Birmingham      22   33   +4       3.51    70.46     4.64    64.97     7.02     3.03     0.05     0.33    15.15     2.91P    0.12R    0.00  
Cardiff         22   33   +4       2.34    64.06     2.83    66.78     7.10     5.56     0.09     0.64    22.39     4.79P    0.05R    0.00  
Brentford       22   32   +2      -0.23    48.97    -1.06    66.89     7.24     5.06     0.16     0.87    22.83     5.43P    0.07R    0.00  
Reading         22   30   +3       0.65    54.54     3.92    62.04     7.10     2.03     0.04     0.15     8.42     1.63P    0.48R    0.02  
QPR             22   29   -1      -3.19    32.44    -4.00    63.99     7.31     2.42     0.05     0.29    13.57     3.31P    0.34R    0.02  
Leeds_United    22   29   -2       1.62    60.23     1.54    59.03     6.92    -5.49     0.00     0.01     3.35     0.59P    1.50R    0.10  
Blackburn       22   28   +3      -3.74    29.38     0.33    61.83     7.03     4.79     0.02     0.11     7.93     1.84P    0.48R    0.02  
Nott'm_Forest   22   28   +1      -2.35    37.04     0.38    61.35     7.09     1.87     0.01     0.09     7.04     1.46P    0.74R    0.03  
Preston         22   25   -1      -3.10    32.87     0.97    56.18     7.03    -2.51     0.00     0.01     1.54     0.30P    3.85R    0.38  
Wolverhampton   22   25   -4      -6.12    18.75    -5.53    59.20     7.20    -1.89     0.00     0.05     4.19     0.94P    1.78R    0.14  
Fulham          22   24   -3      -4.34    26.94     0.36    53.86     7.16    -8.46     0.00     0.01     0.86     0.15P    8.05R    1.08  
Huddersfield    22   21  -10      -3.66    29.73    -1.59    48.03     6.88   -18.75     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.01P   27.86R    6.00  
Bristol_City    22   20  -17      -4.03    28.14    -7.61    46.83     7.00   -26.43     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00P   36.48R    9.68  
MK_Dons         22   19  -12      -6.56    16.61    -5.36    46.84     7.03   -19.19     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00P   34.23R    8.76  
Rotherham       22   18  -14      -3.92    27.54    -1.42    42.33     6.67   -27.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    61.43R   24.23  
Charlton        22   18  -19      -4.99    22.43    -8.71    43.37     6.75   -29.71     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    56.42R   20.40  
Bolton          22   14  -15     -10.39     4.83    -6.89    41.18     6.84   -23.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    65.98R   29.12  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 20 December 2015, Walsall 2 0 Port_Vale; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Burton_Albion    22   45  +11      13.31    96.99     8.54    79.43     7.41    13.39    16.46    32.43    78.28    41.40P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall          21   42  +18       7.80    87.89    10.02    82.35     7.34    27.05    30.89    50.62    89.50    60.98P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham       22   41  +14       6.94    83.46     8.16    77.94     7.46    20.25    13.37    27.49    73.73    37.74P    0.01R    0.00  
Coventry         22   40  +16       5.49    78.41     9.47    77.80     7.30    23.34    12.94    27.23    74.65    38.74P    0.01R    0.00  
Wigan            22   37  +11      -1.69    39.95    -1.52    78.93     7.25    24.16    15.87    32.49    79.29    48.71P    0.00R    0.00  
Peterborough     22   34  +13      -1.85    39.36     4.07    73.16     7.39    22.69     4.47    11.55    52.53    23.27P    0.09R    0.00  
Southend         21   34   +6       5.73    80.03     6.59    68.08     7.54     5.97     1.03     3.16    24.49     7.51P    0.78R    0.03  
Bradford         21   34   +3       4.60    75.75     1.84    69.25     7.33     4.78     1.37     4.04    28.11     9.19P    0.40R    0.01  
Sheff_Utd        22   33   +4      -1.73    40.41    -2.84    69.99     7.29    10.18     1.79     5.02    33.22    12.79P    0.30R    0.00  
Bury             22   33   -1       5.56    78.60     3.53    63.08     7.39    -5.62     0.18     0.71     8.59     2.14P    3.84R    0.16  
Millwall         21   31   +0       0.30    51.82    -2.90    66.94     7.67     2.41     0.88     2.62    20.00     6.80P    1.38R    0.04  
Rochdale         22   30   +2      -0.88    45.27     0.96    64.51     7.30     4.27     0.28     0.98    12.12     3.62P    2.19R    0.10  
Port_Vale        22   30   +1       0.72    54.65     2.28    61.64     7.20    -0.94     0.13     0.36     6.06     1.54P    4.76R    0.22  
Swindon          22   28   -3      -5.43    22.24    -7.94    64.05     7.36     1.63     0.26     0.97    10.98     3.55P    2.72R    0.10  
Doncaster        22   28   -5      -1.38    42.38    -3.82    60.15     7.30    -6.08     0.04     0.21     3.93     1.05P    8.06R    0.53  
Scunthorpe       22   27   -4      -0.60    47.37     0.08    57.29     7.16    -8.12     0.01     0.04     1.73     0.33P   14.70R    1.10  
Blackpool        22   25   -9      -1.91    39.95    -4.57    54.80     7.18   -13.23     0.01     0.02     0.66     0.18P   24.87R    2.62  
Chesterfield     22   23  -12      -5.67    20.92    -9.69    53.78     7.20   -15.56     0.01     0.01     0.52     0.09P   29.60R    3.51  
Fleetwood_Town   21   22   -2      -4.84    23.67     0.94    53.88     7.30    -5.44     0.01     0.03     0.67     0.14P   27.35R    3.34  
Shrewsbury       22   22   -6      -6.12    18.98    -3.03    52.73     7.33    -9.13     0.00     0.01     0.44     0.13P   33.31R    4.75  
Barnsley         22   21  -10      -7.83    12.97    -7.67    52.92     7.26   -11.77     0.00     0.00     0.38     0.08P   32.71R    4.46  
Oldham           21   20  -10      -4.25    26.39    -3.04    49.52     7.23   -17.18     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.02P   51.63R   10.66  
Crewe            22   20  -15      -1.92    39.63    -2.00    43.77     6.74   -29.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    82.01R   34.83  
Colchester       22   20  -22      -2.40    37.28    -7.48    44.40     7.06   -37.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    79.28R   33.55  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 19 December 2015, Barnet 4 2 Crawley_Town; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Plymouth             22   43  +14       7.30    85.27     5.89    82.06     7.19    22.97    27.84    62.18    91.38    70.26P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton          22   43  +10       9.97    91.93     5.80    79.72     7.47    15.66    17.81    47.72    83.74    55.64P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           22   41  +14       6.40    81.97     7.41    78.69     7.27    21.08    14.67    43.66    81.97    53.37P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           22   40  +20       3.49    68.81    10.45    79.11     7.30    29.26    17.76    48.42    84.41    58.46P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle             22   37   +5       6.46    81.67     4.96    70.06     7.52     4.57     1.89     9.60    38.29    15.20P    0.01R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   20   36  +12       7.50    86.58    10.62    73.81     7.92    15.09     6.08    22.51    58.85    29.93P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       22   36   +8       4.44    73.58     5.80    70.54     7.41    10.50     2.19    10.83    41.51    17.91P    0.00R    0.00  
Mansfield            22   34  +10       4.88    76.25    11.39    65.85     7.22     8.65     0.48     3.24    20.47     6.67P    0.03R    0.00  
Wycombe              21   34   +6       1.14    56.56    -0.06    72.67     7.53    12.49     3.81    16.84    53.50    26.71P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient        22   33   +5      -5.55    21.62    -7.78    74.46     7.44    18.05     6.23    24.37    63.86    38.29P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        22   30   +0       2.03    61.98     3.73    61.05     7.29    -3.30     0.07     0.75     7.17     1.98P    0.35R    0.06  
Exeter               21   30   +0       1.34    58.09     0.52    63.69     7.58    -1.31     0.25     2.04    13.59     4.43P    0.16R    0.03  
Luton                22   29   +4      -3.90    29.51     0.04    64.51     7.32     7.84     0.32     2.29    16.54     6.09P    0.07R    0.01  
AFC_Wimbledon        22   29   -1       0.64    54.24     1.93    59.79     7.27    -4.34     0.04     0.48     5.10     1.43P    0.51R    0.08  
Notts_County         22   29   -5      -3.49    31.82    -8.40    65.24     7.52    -0.07     0.34     2.79    18.13     6.87P    0.10R    0.01  
Crawley_Town         22   28   -8      -2.94    34.40    -8.96    61.79     7.54    -6.94     0.10     0.98     8.62     2.88P    0.36R    0.06  
Morecambe            21   27   -1      -1.22    43.59     0.36    60.93     7.63    -2.09     0.08     0.92     7.96     2.40P    0.53R    0.11  
Stevenage            22   26   -8      -4.23    27.63    -7.87    58.96     7.34    -8.23     0.04     0.35     4.02     1.26P    0.82R    0.17  
Barnet               22   25   -7      -0.32    49.23     1.22    52.87     7.37   -15.47     0.00     0.02     0.72     0.16P    5.44R    1.47  
Newport_County       22   20   -9      -6.27    18.11    -2.95    49.12     7.18   -14.98     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.03P   12.09R    3.94  
Hartlepool           21   20  -15      -1.46    42.35    -3.74    45.13     7.07   -29.25     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00    28.77R   11.95  
York                 22   15  -20      -9.13     8.12   -10.52    41.05     7.05   -30.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    50.78R   27.27  
Yeovil               22   13  -15     -14.14     1.63   -10.41    42.11     7.30   -20.55     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.01P   42.23R   20.83  
Dag_&_Red            22   13  -19     -11.23     4.08    -9.44    39.73     7.11   -28.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    57.75R   34.00  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 19 December 2015, Aldershot 1 0 Guiseley; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Cheltenham       25   53  +32       2.45    62.27     6.61    95.45     6.23    53.38    71.32    99.58    82.31P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     24   49  +18       7.02    83.70     4.14    86.67     6.88    29.57    11.98    88.48    30.91P    0.00     0.00  
Eastleigh        24   46  +11       7.30    84.16     2.19    81.37     6.88    19.10     3.31    67.16    15.19P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          24   45  +26      -1.42    41.23     5.38    86.01     6.58    42.44    11.58    89.24    39.72P    0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic   26   43   +9       4.16    70.75     4.41    73.31     6.44    13.31     0.17    21.64     3.82P    0.00     0.00  
Macclesfield     26   41  +11       0.27    51.37     3.50    72.28     6.39    16.81     0.10    18.58     3.72P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City     25   41   +9       5.14    75.38     6.81    70.69     6.65    10.03     0.06    13.02     1.98P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham          23   40  +15       2.38    63.19     5.86    76.12     7.04    21.85     0.83    39.68     8.88P    0.00     0.00  
Braintree_Town   23   40  +10       5.95    80.35     6.18    75.19     6.90    15.42     0.50    32.24     6.37P    0.00R    0.00  
Woking           25   37  +11      -3.37    32.70     1.61    70.21     6.60    17.67     0.07    12.32     2.59P    0.00R    0.00  
Gateshead        25   37   -9       3.83    69.92    -6.81    63.97     6.57   -12.16     0.01     1.79     0.22P    0.08R    0.00  
Tranmere         25   35   +6      -7.93    14.25    -7.05    71.04     6.63    16.74     0.07    14.82     4.13P    0.00R    0.00  
Bromley          24   33   +1       2.59    63.90     6.13    60.93     7.06    -3.69     0.00     1.06     0.13P    0.70R    0.05  
Chester          26   33   -5       2.66    64.56     3.85    58.96     6.33    -7.56     0.00     0.21     0.02P    0.71R    0.04  
Barrow           25   32  -15       6.68    82.31     0.54    54.37     6.60   -25.68     0.00     0.03     0.00P    5.45R    0.53  
Aldershot        25   31  -10       0.18    51.47    -4.55    57.36     6.50   -13.88     0.00     0.13     0.01P    1.76R    0.15  
Guiseley         26   30  -14       2.43    63.50    -1.12    48.19     5.98   -28.58     0.00     0.00     0.00    23.08R    3.47  
Southport        24   27  -11       1.67    60.76     0.96    51.81     6.54   -19.33     0.00     0.00     0.00P   10.63R    1.47  
Altrincham       24   26  -16       2.06    63.20    -1.67    50.27     6.52   -25.21     0.00     0.00     0.00    15.85R    2.50  
Welling          24   24   -9      -3.20    32.62    -0.58    48.49     6.44   -17.54     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.32R    4.06  
Boreham_Wood     25   22   -7      -5.62    22.41     2.44    45.22     6.37   -15.01     0.00     0.00     0.00    37.59R    9.88  
Halifax          24   18  -23     -10.52     6.78   -14.64    41.75     6.59   -34.95     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.75R   25.92  
Torquay          24   17  -24     -10.90     5.69   -15.50    43.95     6.70   -29.70     0.00     0.00     0.00    48.47R   15.98  
Kidderminster    24   14  -16     -14.14     1.59    -8.68    39.61     6.50   -23.05     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.61R   35.94