Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 24 December 2015 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 21 December 2015, Arsenal 2 1 Man_City; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Leicester        17   38  +13      13.20    98.63    10.85    67.25     6.72    12.99     6.19    19.76    42.29    61.73    85.21     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          17   36  +17       3.21    70.54     2.52    77.08     6.33    36.47    51.30    81.06    92.17    96.75    99.42     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         17   32  +14      -2.24    33.57    -4.05    74.95     6.33    37.13    35.99    71.11    86.85    94.02    98.77     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        17   29  +14       1.28    58.38     7.39    63.88     6.68    23.21     2.54    10.45    26.52    45.34    74.38     0.00R    0.00  
Man_Utd          17   29   +8      -0.84    43.65    -1.68    65.42     6.53    19.21     3.34    13.15    33.21    53.39    80.48     0.00R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   17   29   +7       7.06    89.06     8.91    57.03     6.50     5.94     0.17     1.11     4.37    10.57    32.10     0.06R    0.00  
Watford          17   28   +5       6.07    84.39     7.30    53.59     6.60    -0.01     0.05     0.40     1.80     4.73    16.56     0.35R    0.00  
West_Ham         17   25   +4       2.31    66.01     5.03    53.93     6.59     4.22     0.07     0.40     1.84     5.00    18.41     0.30R    0.00  
Liverpool        17   24   -2      -1.41    40.79    -4.99    56.60     6.75     3.64     0.15     1.07     4.47    10.60    30.41     0.16R    0.00  
Everton          17   23   +7      -3.15    29.94     2.79    56.01     6.67    13.26     0.16     0.98     3.89     9.68    29.52     0.14R    0.00  
Stoke            17   23   -2       0.79    55.90    -0.73    49.58     6.36    -4.83     0.00     0.06     0.33     1.18     5.62     1.38R    0.02  
Southampton      17   21   +0      -4.69    21.35    -3.49    51.32     6.59     2.29     0.00     0.14     0.70     2.30    10.14     0.90R    0.03  
West_Brom        17   20   -6       0.91    57.72     0.13    44.58     6.32   -12.53     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.15     1.07     8.53R    0.41  
Bournemouth      17   19  -10       1.40    60.93     0.21    39.90     6.42   -24.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.23    27.50R    2.68  
Chelsea          17   18   -6     -11.43     2.46   -15.22    53.51     6.61     4.08     0.03     0.32     1.52     4.46    17.15     0.43R    0.01  
Norwich          17   17   -9      -1.09    43.77    -0.32    40.09     6.50   -18.37     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.04     0.25    25.24R    2.76  
Newcastle        17   17  -13       0.07    52.09    -2.20    37.83     6.23   -26.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06    39.74R    4.71  
Swansea          17   15   -9      -5.34    17.64    -4.49    40.41     6.40   -14.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.24    22.51R    1.94  
Sunderland       17   12  -15      -4.50    20.71    -4.24    31.07     5.98   -30.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    79.88R   25.84  
Aston_Villa      17    7  -17      -7.92     5.47    -3.70    26.46     6.01   -31.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    92.86R   61.61  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 20 December 2015, Leeds_United 1 0 Preston; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Middlesbrough   22   46  +21       6.73    84.91     7.66    88.66     6.97    34.78    43.42    71.88    98.97    80.97P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           22   44  +20       4.46    74.45     5.99    87.43     6.99    35.82    36.29    66.26    98.37    77.07P    0.00     0.00  
Brighton        22   43   +8      11.09    95.02     5.08    77.84     7.03    11.30     4.00    13.21    77.96    25.66P    0.00     0.00  
Hull            22   41  +15       2.60    64.88     3.22    82.24     6.99    27.08    12.30    33.01    92.51    52.70P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley         22   38  +10       1.82    60.27     1.20    76.57     7.20    18.39     3.29    11.34    73.90    28.94P    0.01R    0.00  
Ipswich         22   34   +2       1.55    59.01    -1.54    69.29     7.13     5.70     0.29     1.42    33.73     8.22P    0.01R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       22   33   +5       3.06    67.58     4.86    65.80     7.01     5.21     0.06     0.43    18.16     3.69P    0.10R    0.00  
Birmingham      22   33   +4       3.77    71.41     5.03    64.78     7.09     2.69     0.06     0.37    14.82     2.86P    0.16R    0.00  
Cardiff         22   33   +4       2.32    63.55     2.77    66.84     7.10     5.63     0.09     0.67    22.27     4.70P    0.07R    0.01  
Brentford       22   32   +2      -0.20    49.05    -0.99    66.75     7.20     4.90     0.11     0.68    22.78     5.08P    0.09R    0.01  
Reading         22   30   +3       0.55    53.62     3.77    62.15     7.03     2.17     0.01     0.11     8.43     1.57P    0.53R    0.03  
QPR             22   29   -1      -3.05    33.40    -3.78    63.89     7.34     2.26     0.04     0.31    13.20     3.23P    0.36R    0.01  
Leeds_United    22   29   -2       1.60    60.23     1.51    59.00     6.90    -5.53     0.00     0.03     3.20     0.49P    1.48R    0.11  
Blackburn       22   28   +3      -4.05    27.62    -0.06    62.10     7.01     5.21     0.02     0.13     8.31     1.87P    0.49R    0.03  
Nott'm_Forest   22   28   +1      -2.33    36.92     0.34    61.37     7.09     1.92     0.01     0.09     6.82     1.51P    0.72R    0.05  
Preston         22   25   -1      -3.09    32.83     0.99    56.18     7.02    -2.53     0.00     0.01     1.57     0.33P    3.78R    0.34  
Wolverhampton   22   25   -4      -6.13    18.68    -5.59    59.15     7.16    -1.95     0.00     0.05     3.98     0.96P    1.68R    0.15  
Fulham          22   24   -3      -4.29    27.17     0.41    53.83     7.13    -8.51     0.00     0.01     0.87     0.12P    7.95R    1.10  
Huddersfield    22   21  -10      -3.49    30.60    -1.30    47.89     6.86   -18.91     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P   28.36R    6.05  
Bristol_City    22   20  -17      -3.99    28.53    -7.53    46.74     7.03   -26.57     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   36.75R    9.83  
MK_Dons         22   19  -12      -6.53    16.63    -5.37    46.85     7.02   -19.11     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P   34.18R    8.52  
Rotherham       22   18  -14      -3.92    27.72    -1.42    42.45     6.69   -26.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    60.33R   23.72  
Charlton        22   18  -19      -4.87    22.70    -8.46    43.24     6.74   -29.93     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    56.83R   20.51  
Bolton          22   14  -15     -10.31     4.97    -6.77    41.14     6.83   -23.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    66.14R   29.52  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 20 December 2015, Walsall 2 0 Port_Vale; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Burton_Albion    22   45  +11      13.39    97.12     8.66    79.29     7.38    13.21    16.28    31.92    78.00    41.10P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall          21   42  +18       7.94    88.32    10.19    82.24     7.38    26.92    30.92    50.56    89.19    60.72P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham       22   41  +14       7.03    83.89     8.37    77.90     7.38    20.12    13.13    27.52    74.15    37.85P    0.01R    0.00  
Coventry         22   40  +16       5.37    78.03     9.28    77.86     7.27    23.48    13.23    27.73    74.90    39.38P    0.00R    0.00  
Wigan            22   37  +11      -1.58    40.53    -1.38    78.85     7.27    24.10    16.05    32.49    78.85    48.78P    0.01R    0.00  
Peterborough     22   34  +13      -1.98    39.02     3.85    73.32     7.38    22.93     4.89    12.41    53.09    23.99P    0.08R    0.00  
Southend         21   34   +6       5.81    80.32     6.72    67.97     7.49     5.79     0.93     3.07    23.91     7.25P    0.83R    0.02  
Bradford         21   34   +3       4.49    75.11     1.69    69.36     7.33     4.93     1.39     4.12    29.01     9.42P    0.39R    0.01  
Sheff_Utd        22   33   +4      -1.56    41.10    -2.55    69.84     7.24     9.93     1.51     4.58    32.49    12.12P    0.33R    0.01  
Bury             22   33   -1       5.69    79.33     3.76    62.95     7.35    -5.81     0.16     0.57     8.29     2.00P    4.12R    0.16  
Millwall         21   31   +0       0.27    51.82    -2.91    66.96     7.67     2.37     0.86     2.52    20.48     6.86P    1.40R    0.05  
Rochdale         22   30   +2      -0.84    45.70     1.02    64.48     7.30     4.19     0.26     0.93    12.16     3.48P    2.22R    0.08  
Port_Vale        22   30   +1       0.66    54.19     2.20    61.68     7.18    -0.88     0.11     0.39     6.04     1.51P    4.78R    0.18  
Swindon          22   28   -3      -5.29    22.67    -7.74    63.95     7.31     1.46     0.22     0.88    10.80     3.47P    2.73R    0.12  
Doncaster        22   28   -5      -1.41    41.95    -3.86    60.18     7.29    -6.02     0.03     0.16     3.99     0.98P    7.85R    0.45  
Scunthorpe       22   27   -4      -0.67    46.89     0.03    57.31     7.21    -8.10     0.01     0.05     1.74     0.41P   15.06R    1.17  
Blackpool        22   25   -9      -1.95    39.61    -4.59    54.72     7.18   -13.35     0.01     0.03     0.68     0.16P   25.54R    2.55  
Chesterfield     22   23  -12      -5.89    19.74    -9.98    53.92     7.19   -15.35     0.00     0.01     0.49     0.11P   28.98R    3.55  
Fleetwood_Town   21   22   -2      -4.69    24.52     1.16    53.74     7.35    -5.64     0.01     0.03     0.70     0.17P   28.23R    3.58  
Shrewsbury       22   22   -6      -6.26    18.63    -3.23    52.98     7.32    -8.79     0.00     0.01     0.46     0.09P   32.13R    4.54  
Barnsley         22   21  -10      -7.75    13.01    -7.54    52.83     7.30   -11.88     0.00     0.01     0.41     0.11P   33.39R    4.88  
Oldham           21   20  -10      -4.42    25.63    -3.31    49.74     7.29   -16.84     0.00     0.01     0.16     0.03P   50.87R   10.41  
Crewe            22   20  -15      -1.96    39.49    -2.09    43.84     6.74   -29.44     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   81.80R   34.57  
Colchester       22   20  -22      -2.52    36.22    -7.74    44.48     7.06   -37.32     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    79.26R   33.69  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 19 December 2015, Barnet 4 2 Crawley_Town; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Plymouth             22   43  +14       7.45    85.94     6.08    81.98     7.23    22.84    27.96    61.72    91.01    69.60P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton          22   43  +10       9.88    91.81     5.69    79.69     7.38    15.62    17.98    47.89    83.70    55.69P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           22   41  +14       6.55    82.67     7.63    78.62     7.24    20.91    14.48    43.53    81.86    53.32P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           22   40  +20       3.52    69.04    10.51    79.00     7.37    29.11    17.47    48.04    83.85    57.99P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle             22   37   +5       6.45    81.83     4.92    70.07     7.50     4.60     1.96     9.72    38.32    15.26P    0.00R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   20   36  +12       7.55    86.83    10.73    73.73     7.88    14.92     5.92    22.09    58.40    29.47P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       22   36   +8       4.55    73.92     5.93    70.48     7.41    10.47     2.04    10.61    41.46    17.70P    0.00R    0.00  
Mansfield            22   34  +10       4.87    76.33    11.35    65.88     7.20     8.70     0.43     3.23    20.74     6.74P    0.02R    0.00  
Wycombe              21   34   +6       1.15    56.71    -0.05    72.68     7.50    12.53     3.90    17.15    53.11    26.99P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient        22   33   +5      -5.64    21.31    -7.92    74.57     7.46    18.21     6.48    25.05    64.58    38.91P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        22   30   +0       1.96    61.58     3.63    61.18     7.33    -3.10     0.10     0.82     7.31     2.10P    0.36R    0.09  
Exeter               21   30   +0       1.22    57.65     0.32    63.84     7.58    -1.00     0.31     2.20    14.05     4.70P    0.14R    0.03  
Luton                22   29   +4      -3.88    29.39     0.06    64.49     7.35     7.80     0.34     2.47    16.55     6.16P    0.09R    0.02  
AFC_Wimbledon        22   29   -1       0.54    53.74     1.75    59.90     7.25    -4.17     0.05     0.47     5.41     1.55P    0.44R    0.08  
Notts_County         22   29   -5      -3.53    31.43    -8.48    65.31     7.50     0.04     0.37     2.76    18.40     7.16P    0.12R    0.01  
Crawley_Town         22   28   -8      -2.79    35.42    -8.70    61.59     7.57    -7.24     0.09     0.96     8.29     2.81P    0.40R    0.10  
Morecambe            21   27   -1      -1.14    44.01     0.44    60.78     7.65    -2.37     0.08     0.86     7.81     2.34P    0.49R    0.10  
Stevenage            22   26   -8      -4.27    27.62    -7.94    59.05     7.40    -8.07     0.04     0.38     4.30     1.33P    0.85R    0.16  
Barnet               22   25   -7      -0.36    49.06     1.15    52.93     7.33   -15.43     0.00     0.04     0.67     0.14P    5.42R    1.64  
Newport_County       22   20   -9      -6.24    18.14    -2.87    49.00     7.18   -15.15     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.04P   12.33R    3.97  
Hartlepool           21   20  -15      -1.41    42.59    -3.69    45.08     7.03   -29.35     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   28.93R   11.99  
York                 22   15  -20      -9.25     7.88   -10.70    41.22     7.02   -30.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    50.08R   26.63  
Yeovil               22   13  -15     -14.19     1.60   -10.48    42.19     7.31   -20.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    42.19R   20.81  
Dag_&_Red            22   13  -19     -11.17     4.10    -9.39    39.69     7.03   -28.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    58.15R   34.38  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 19 December 2015, Aldershot 1 0 Guiseley; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Cheltenham       25   53  +32       2.48    62.83     6.66    95.40     6.23    53.26    70.72    99.53    81.76P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     24   49  +18       6.86    83.28     3.78    86.79     6.85    29.79    12.23    88.82    31.18P    0.00     0.00  
Eastleigh        24   46  +11       7.24    83.95     2.08    81.42     6.89    19.11     3.40    67.75    15.22P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          24   45  +26      -1.52    40.40     5.21    86.14     6.59    42.63    11.99    89.42    40.33P    0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic   26   43   +9       4.21    70.91     4.53    73.24     6.47    13.22     0.15    21.58     3.70P    0.00     0.00  
Macclesfield     26   41  +11       0.35    51.95     3.62    72.19     6.40    16.68     0.10    18.00     3.76P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City     25   41   +9       5.09    75.42     6.73    70.81     6.59    10.22     0.08    13.15     2.01P    0.00R    0.00  
Wrexham          23   40  +15       2.40    63.05     5.88    76.11     7.00    21.84     0.75    39.42     8.50P    0.00     0.00  
Braintree_Town   23   40  +10       5.96    80.26     6.16    75.17     6.89    15.41     0.44    32.11     6.24P    0.00     0.00  
Woking           25   37  +11      -3.22    33.50     1.87    70.04     6.62    17.44     0.05    12.08     2.59P    0.00R    0.00  
Gateshead        25   37   -9       3.99    70.86    -6.54    63.80     6.52   -12.44     0.00     1.52     0.18P    0.11R    0.00  
Tranmere         25   35   +6      -8.03    13.72    -7.18    71.11     6.69    16.84     0.07    15.10     4.38P    0.00     0.00  
Bromley          24   33   +1       2.43    63.24     5.84    61.05     7.08    -3.49     0.00     1.13     0.13P    0.56R    0.03  
Chester          26   33   -5       2.61    64.42     3.85    58.96     6.33    -7.57     0.00     0.21     0.01P    0.76R    0.03  
Barrow           25   32  -15       6.71    82.25     0.59    54.29     6.59   -25.73     0.00     0.04     0.00P    5.73R    0.60  
Aldershot        25   31  -10       0.11    51.24    -4.63    57.40     6.51   -13.81     0.00     0.12     0.01P    1.70R    0.12  
Guiseley         26   30  -14       2.58    64.52    -0.87    48.12     5.99   -28.77     0.00     0.00     0.00    23.59R    3.63  
Southport        24   27  -11       1.64    60.68     0.97    51.84     6.51   -19.30     0.00     0.01     0.01P   10.41R    1.39  
Altrincham       24   26  -16       2.20    64.06    -1.49    50.25     6.54   -25.24     0.00     0.01     0.00    15.89R    2.63  
Welling          24   24   -9      -3.13    33.50    -0.49    48.48     6.43   -17.57     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.08R    3.90  
Boreham_Wood     25   22   -7      -5.73    21.94     2.31    45.28     6.37   -14.84     0.00     0.00     0.00    37.78R    9.53  
Halifax          24   18  -23     -10.44     6.78   -14.52    41.66     6.64   -35.07     0.00     0.00     0.00    63.10R   26.79  
Torquay          24   17  -24     -11.11     5.26   -15.80    44.09     6.65   -29.48     0.00     0.00     0.00    47.44R   15.25  
Kidderminster    24   14  -16     -14.08     1.66    -8.55    39.58     6.47   -23.11     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.83R   36.10