Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Wednesday 23 December 2015 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 21 December 2015, Arsenal 2 1 Man_City; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Leicester        17   38  +13      13.34    98.82    11.08    67.05     6.63    12.66     5.87    18.90    41.11    60.74    84.77     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          17   36  +17       3.26    70.79     2.65    77.01     6.30    36.30    50.61    80.77    91.91    96.77    99.50     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         17   32  +14      -2.27    33.32    -4.13    75.02     6.31    37.26    36.83    72.36    87.12    94.07    98.73     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        17   29  +14       1.22    57.88     7.29    63.91     6.63    23.26     2.56    10.15    26.70    45.40    74.74     0.00R    0.00  
Man_Utd          17   29   +8      -0.87    43.52    -1.73    65.45     6.49    19.27     3.47    13.20    33.56    54.03    80.76     0.00R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   17   29   +7       7.10    89.05     8.94    57.00     6.52     5.90     0.20     1.20     4.52    10.69    31.72     0.06R    0.00  
Watford          17   28   +5       6.19    84.89     7.50    53.55     6.59    -0.08     0.07     0.42     1.84     4.73    16.35     0.32R    0.01  
West_Ham         17   25   +4       2.35    66.08     5.07    53.96     6.59     4.25     0.04     0.39     1.89     5.23    18.29     0.31R    0.01  
Liverpool        17   24   -2      -1.41    40.62    -4.98    56.57     6.70     3.64     0.15     1.08     4.46    10.15    29.86     0.15R    0.00  
Everton          17   23   +7      -3.18    29.59     2.74    56.05     6.63    13.31     0.12     0.91     3.92     9.71    29.95     0.16R    0.00  
Stoke            17   23   -2       0.80    56.24    -0.68    49.53     6.33    -4.85     0.01     0.08     0.37     1.08     5.60     1.51R    0.03  
Southampton      17   21   +0      -4.80    20.81    -3.60    51.39     6.56     2.33     0.02     0.17     0.83     2.44    10.24     0.90R    0.03  
West_Brom        17   20   -6       0.92    57.54     0.12    44.60     6.30   -12.53     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.17     1.15     8.40R    0.38  
Bournemouth      17   19  -10       1.30    60.27     0.02    40.04     6.46   -23.75     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.02     0.29    27.17R    2.63  
Chelsea          17   18   -6     -11.45     2.41   -15.29    53.55     6.66     4.11     0.04     0.34     1.70     4.71    17.48     0.46R    0.01  
Norwich          17   17   -9      -1.14    43.44    -0.35    40.09     6.49   -18.42     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.03     0.29    25.49R    2.68  
Newcastle        17   17  -13       0.02    51.77    -2.26    37.79     6.20   -26.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.06    40.07R    4.77  
Swansea          17   15   -9      -5.36    17.45    -4.55    40.42     6.39   -13.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.23    22.42R    1.97  
Sunderland       17   12  -15      -4.48    20.89    -4.23    31.17     6.01   -30.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    79.44R   25.14  
Aston_Villa      17    7  -17      -7.86     5.63    -3.62    26.37     5.97   -31.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    93.13R   62.35  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 20 December 2015, Leeds_United 1 0 Preston; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Middlesbrough   22   46  +21       6.79    85.11     7.76    88.53     6.92    34.60    42.85    71.28    98.98    80.35P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           22   44  +20       4.62    75.17     6.21    87.36     7.00    35.65    35.98    66.05    98.28    76.50P    0.00     0.00  
Brighton        22   43   +8      11.12    95.25     5.10    77.87     7.01    11.33     4.05    13.36    77.87    25.62P    0.00     0.00  
Hull            22   41  +15       2.49    64.07     3.06    82.35     7.05    27.24    13.09    33.81    92.78    53.53P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley         22   38  +10       1.94    61.03     1.34    76.53     7.18    18.32     3.25    11.04    73.88    28.78P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich         22   34   +2       1.58    59.24    -1.51    69.27     7.15     5.67     0.28     1.50    33.36     8.42P    0.02R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       22   33   +5       3.14    68.11     4.97    65.78     6.99     5.19     0.07     0.45    18.21     3.68P    0.09R    0.00  
Birmingham      22   33   +4       3.71    71.47     4.93    64.85     7.06     2.82     0.07     0.36    15.04     2.78P    0.17R    0.00  
Cardiff         22   33   +4       2.22    63.11     2.63    66.92     7.06     5.77     0.12     0.65    22.72     4.91P    0.05R    0.00  
Brentford       22   32   +2      -0.18    49.17    -1.00    66.80     7.24     4.96     0.13     0.77    22.74     5.49P    0.10R    0.00  
Reading         22   30   +3       0.65    54.43     3.91    62.02     7.06     1.99     0.02     0.16     7.97     1.54P    0.48R    0.01  
QPR             22   29   -1      -3.06    33.34    -3.81    63.84     7.31     2.19     0.04     0.30    13.20     3.14P    0.35R    0.02  
Leeds_United    22   29   -2       1.58    60.02     1.50    59.02     6.93    -5.48     0.00     0.03     3.31     0.55P    1.47R    0.13  
Blackburn       22   28   +3      -3.90    28.65     0.13    61.95     6.97     4.95     0.02     0.12     7.98     1.90P    0.45R    0.02  
Nott'm_Forest   22   28   +1      -2.32    37.04     0.33    61.41     7.03     1.95     0.00     0.08     7.01     1.33P    0.67R    0.04  
Preston         22   25   -1      -3.10    32.77     0.98    56.18     6.99    -2.49     0.00     0.01     1.51     0.31P    3.78R    0.32  
Wolverhampton   22   25   -4      -6.25    18.17    -5.74    59.33     7.11    -1.71     0.01     0.04     4.11     0.98P    1.54R    0.13  
Fulham          22   24   -3      -4.47    26.55     0.17    53.93     7.20    -8.33     0.00     0.00     0.90     0.17P    7.86R    1.07  
Huddersfield    22   21  -10      -3.57    30.31    -1.45    48.03     6.90   -18.77     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.01P   27.76R    5.83  
Bristol_City    22   20  -17      -3.87    28.83    -7.36    46.64     7.00   -26.72     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P   37.32R    9.86  
MK_Dons         22   19  -12      -6.64    16.41    -5.53    46.95     7.06   -18.94     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P   33.56R    8.36  
Rotherham       22   18  -14      -3.82    27.94    -1.23    42.28     6.67   -27.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    61.38R   24.24  
Charlton        22   18  -19      -4.96    22.29    -8.62    43.26     6.78   -29.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   56.88R   20.41  
Bolton          22   14  -15     -10.32     4.97    -6.75    41.09     6.84   -23.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    66.09R   29.56  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 20 December 2015, Walsall 2 0 Port_Vale; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Burton_Albion    22   45  +11      13.32    97.12     8.57    79.41     7.33    13.38    16.36    32.68    78.60    41.59P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall          21   42  +18       7.76    87.64     9.95    82.44     7.43    27.16    31.67    51.66    89.28    61.36P    0.00R    0.00  
Gillingham       22   41  +14       6.95    83.81     8.19    78.00     7.38    20.30    13.16    27.58    74.25    37.90P    0.01R    0.00  
Coventry         22   40  +16       5.48    78.43     9.40    77.83     7.29    23.47    13.03    27.28    74.61    38.82P    0.01R    0.00  
Wigan            22   37  +11      -1.50    41.01    -1.28    78.69     7.26    23.80    15.13    30.98    78.22    47.77P    0.00R    0.00  
Peterborough     22   34  +13      -1.85    39.55     4.05    73.30     7.38    22.89     4.83    12.11    52.80    23.66P    0.09R    0.00  
Southend         21   34   +6       5.70    79.94     6.54    68.12     7.53     6.02     1.17     3.31    24.55     7.63P    0.66R    0.02  
Bradford         21   34   +3       4.63    75.74     1.91    69.19     7.33     4.67     1.28     3.85    28.13     9.16P    0.47R    0.01  
Sheff_Utd        22   33   +4      -1.71    40.43    -2.79    70.06     7.22    10.24     1.63     4.73    33.32    12.62P    0.29R    0.01  
Bury             22   33   -1       5.57    78.73     3.55    63.09     7.34    -5.58     0.16     0.63     8.40     1.97P    3.82R    0.14  
Millwall         21   31   +0       0.24    51.58    -2.95    66.94     7.71     2.38     0.88     2.66    20.36     6.88P    1.43R    0.06  
Rochdale         22   30   +2      -0.99    44.95     0.78    64.57     7.29     4.38     0.29     0.97    12.25     3.56P    2.26R    0.10  
Port_Vale        22   30   +1       0.71    54.58     2.27    61.64     7.18    -0.93     0.11     0.42     5.94     1.62P    4.78R    0.21  
Swindon          22   28   -3      -5.27    23.06    -7.72    63.97     7.39     1.47     0.23     0.84    11.06     3.55P    2.89R    0.12  
Doncaster        22   28   -5      -1.45    42.14    -3.89    60.15     7.25    -6.08     0.04     0.19     3.80     0.99P    7.90R    0.41  
Scunthorpe       22   27   -4      -0.68    46.74     0.03    57.31     7.20    -8.08     0.01     0.05     1.71     0.33P   14.60R    1.12  
Blackpool        22   25   -9      -1.95    39.73    -4.55    54.66     7.17   -13.42     0.00     0.02     0.67     0.17P   25.29R    2.67  
Chesterfield     22   23  -12      -5.56    21.35    -9.50    53.69     7.24   -15.68     0.00     0.01     0.49     0.11P   30.20R    3.77  
Fleetwood_Town   21   22   -2      -4.83    23.78     0.91    53.90     7.31    -5.46     0.00     0.02     0.66     0.14P   27.20R    3.35  
Shrewsbury       22   22   -6      -6.18    18.69    -3.15    52.82     7.24    -9.00     0.00     0.01     0.40     0.08P   32.49R    4.49  
Barnsley         22   21  -10      -7.74    13.12    -7.53    52.77     7.27   -12.00     0.00     0.01     0.38     0.08P   33.49R    4.53  
Oldham           21   20  -10      -4.44    25.82    -3.28    49.83     7.23   -16.71     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.02P   50.33R    9.84  
Crewe            22   20  -15      -1.89    40.00    -1.98    43.69     6.75   -29.70     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    82.19R   35.50  
Colchester       22   20  -22      -2.42    36.88    -7.52    44.38     7.04   -37.50     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   79.60R   33.66  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 19 December 2015, Barnet 4 2 Crawley_Town; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Plymouth             22   43  +14       7.16    85.06     5.69    82.26     7.18    23.26    28.63    63.18    91.75    70.90P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton          22   43  +10       9.85    91.83     5.61    79.82     7.40    15.85    17.91    48.17    84.11    56.14P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           22   41  +14       6.48    82.41     7.56    78.69     7.24    21.04    14.55    43.54    81.89    53.41P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           22   40  +20       3.50    69.20    10.49    79.07     7.33    29.17    17.38    47.77    84.11    57.84P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle             22   37   +5       6.48    81.83     4.99    70.04     7.48     4.52     1.80     9.49    38.05    14.96P    0.00     0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   20   36  +12       7.59    86.92    10.72    73.75     7.87    14.95     5.85    21.84    58.52    29.37P    0.00R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       22   36   +8       4.47    73.79     5.86    70.54     7.36    10.53     1.89    10.34    41.67    17.70P    0.01R    0.00  
Mansfield            22   34  +10       4.89    76.24    11.39    65.94     7.20     8.72     0.51     3.24    20.82     6.71P    0.04R    0.01  
Wycombe              21   34   +6       1.09    56.37    -0.14    72.64     7.51    12.47     3.79    16.61    53.25    26.37P    0.00R    0.00  
Leyton_Orient        22   33   +5      -5.71    21.10    -8.01    74.64     7.46    18.32     6.49    25.32    64.58    39.16P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        22   30   +0       1.86    61.01     3.48    61.29     7.27    -2.89     0.08     0.74     7.44     2.06P    0.32R    0.06  
Exeter               21   30   +0       1.35    58.33     0.50    63.62     7.57    -1.30     0.25     1.89    13.22     4.29P    0.16R    0.03  
Luton                22   29   +4      -3.89    29.32     0.02    64.55     7.37     7.91     0.27     2.45    16.61     6.14P    0.07R    0.01  
AFC_Wimbledon        22   29   -1       0.62    54.19     1.89    59.78     7.29    -4.38     0.04     0.46     5.23     1.55P    0.52R    0.08  
Notts_County         22   29   -5      -3.42    32.02    -8.28    65.12     7.53    -0.23     0.32     2.73    17.57     6.73P    0.10R    0.03  
Crawley_Town         22   28   -8      -2.87    35.08    -8.83    61.66     7.53    -7.08     0.11     0.97     8.44     2.85P    0.34R    0.05  
Morecambe            21   27   -1      -1.22    43.56     0.31    60.82     7.67    -2.24     0.13     0.88     7.76     2.39P    0.56R    0.12  
Stevenage            22   26   -8      -4.30    27.53    -7.95    59.03     7.33    -8.09     0.01     0.32     4.08     1.24P    0.78R    0.17  
Barnet               22   25   -7      -0.39    48.89     1.09    52.92     7.34   -15.39     0.00     0.04     0.70     0.14P    5.31R    1.48  
Newport_County       22   20   -9      -6.00    18.96    -2.50    48.91     7.22   -15.34     0.00     0.01     0.18     0.04P   12.51R    4.30  
Hartlepool           21   20  -15      -1.37    42.86    -3.60    45.06     7.02   -29.43     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P   28.47R   11.73  
York                 22   15  -20      -9.12     8.21   -10.48    41.03     7.01   -30.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    50.75R   27.32  
Yeovil               22   13  -15     -14.12     1.66   -10.36    42.07     7.30   -20.60     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   42.44R   21.04  
Dag_&_Red            22   13  -19     -11.23     4.24    -9.46    39.69     7.07   -28.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    57.61R   33.58  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 19 December 2015, Aldershot 1 0 Guiseley; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Cheltenham       25   53  +32       2.57    63.00     6.81    95.32     6.28    53.11    70.51    99.53    81.53P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     24   49  +18       7.02    83.97     4.14    86.65     6.88    29.51    12.22    88.18    30.99P    0.00     0.00  
Eastleigh        24   46  +11       7.28    84.16     2.15    81.43     6.89    19.17     3.55    67.74    15.23P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          24   45  +26      -1.45    40.88     5.33    86.04     6.57    42.47    11.83    89.41    40.03P    0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic   26   43   +9       4.05    70.21     4.28    73.42     6.43    13.47     0.17    22.15     3.91P    0.00     0.00  
Macclesfield     26   41  +11       0.32    51.86     3.61    72.22     6.39    16.74     0.10    17.76     3.59P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City     25   41   +9       5.23    75.97     7.00    70.61     6.60     9.93     0.07    12.53     2.01P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham          23   40  +15       2.31    62.62     5.72    76.17     6.99    21.93     0.88    39.72     8.87P    0.00     0.00  
Braintree_Town   23   40  +10       5.90    80.09     6.11    75.27     6.91    15.51     0.54    32.34     6.52P    0.00     0.00  
Woking           25   37  +11      -3.26    33.36     1.78    70.17     6.63    17.63     0.06    12.39     2.52P    0.00R    0.00  
Gateshead        25   37   -9       4.07    71.31    -6.39    63.67     6.49   -12.59     0.00     1.44     0.20P    0.10R    0.00  
Tranmere         25   35   +6      -8.19    13.39    -7.39    71.22     6.65    17.03     0.06    15.36     4.36P    0.00R    0.00  
Bromley          24   33   +1       2.45    63.23     5.93    60.98     7.11    -3.57     0.00     1.09     0.19P    0.60R    0.06  
Chester          26   33   -5       2.69    64.84     3.93    58.87     6.30    -7.72     0.00     0.17     0.02P    0.80R    0.03  
Barrow           25   32  -15       6.78    82.84     0.63    54.33     6.56   -25.69     0.00     0.03     0.01P    5.57R    0.56  
Aldershot        25   31  -10       0.09    51.14    -4.68    57.43     6.52   -13.78     0.00     0.13     0.03P    1.74R    0.14  
Guiseley         26   30  -14       2.59    64.55    -0.92    48.17     5.96   -28.60     0.00     0.00     0.00    23.13R    3.47  
Southport        24   27  -11       1.62    60.37     0.89    51.84     6.54   -19.31     0.00     0.01     0.00P   10.58R    1.51  
Altrincham       24   26  -16       2.14    63.56    -1.58    50.17     6.53   -25.37     0.00     0.01     0.00    16.18R    2.57  
Welling          24   24   -9      -3.29    32.62    -0.73    48.56     6.46   -17.46     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.27R    4.06  
Boreham_Wood     25   22   -7      -5.80    21.64     2.17    45.34     6.36   -14.78     0.00     0.00     0.00    37.58R    9.33  
Halifax          24   18  -23     -10.38     6.84   -14.39    41.67     6.64   -35.12     0.00     0.00     0.00    63.23R   26.68  
Torquay          24   17  -24     -11.11     5.44   -15.84    44.13     6.70   -29.40     0.00     0.00     0.00    47.23R   15.37  
Kidderminster    24   14  -16     -14.03     1.73    -8.54    39.55     6.51   -23.09     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.99R   36.24