Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Tuesday 22 December 2015 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 21 December 2015, Arsenal 2 1 Man_City; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Leicester        17   38  +13      13.31    98.69    11.07    67.11     6.61    12.76     5.68    19.10    41.33    61.30    85.06     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          17   36  +17       3.31    70.99     2.69    77.00     6.37    36.31    51.16    80.52    91.67    96.43    99.42     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         17   32  +14      -2.19    33.66    -3.95    74.94     6.31    37.08    36.40    71.49    86.87    93.89    98.76     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        17   29  +14       1.27    58.43     7.35    63.95     6.64    23.31     2.60    10.53    26.91    45.97    75.11     0.00R    0.00  
Man_Utd          17   29   +8      -0.98    42.72    -1.96    65.56     6.53    19.46     3.50    13.77    34.26    54.43    81.29     0.00     0.00  
Crystal_Palace   17   29   +7       7.15    89.29     9.02    56.93     6.49     5.81     0.19     1.21     4.37    10.52    31.20     0.05R    0.00  
Watford          17   28   +5       6.18    85.03     7.48    53.51     6.60    -0.11     0.05     0.40     1.87     4.70    16.42     0.30R    0.01  
West_Ham         17   25   +4       2.42    66.52     5.16    53.79     6.61     4.03     0.05     0.40     1.80     4.91    18.02     0.36R    0.01  
Liverpool        17   24   -2      -1.37    40.98    -4.90    56.49     6.75     3.54     0.18     1.20     4.40    10.18    29.64     0.14R    0.00  
Everton          17   23   +7      -3.07    30.65     2.92    55.96     6.67    13.15     0.13     0.91     3.85     9.57    29.66     0.16R    0.01  
Stoke            17   23   -2       0.72    55.41    -0.82    49.63     6.36    -4.75     0.00     0.03     0.34     1.15     5.90     1.50R    0.03  
Southampton      17   21   +0      -4.77    21.07    -3.62    51.34     6.57     2.31     0.01     0.14     0.74     2.25    10.25     0.85R    0.02  
West_Brom        17   20   -6       0.78    56.60    -0.01    44.69     6.35   -12.37     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.15     1.16     8.33R    0.39  
Bournemouth      17   19  -10       1.26    59.87    -0.08    40.10     6.42   -23.66     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.05     0.27    26.93R    2.41  
Chelsea          17   18   -6     -11.50     2.33   -15.38    53.53     6.58     4.08     0.03     0.29     1.54     4.43    17.26     0.41R    0.01  
Norwich          17   17   -9      -1.16    43.12    -0.43    40.14     6.47   -18.29     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.03     0.28    25.36R    2.56  
Newcastle        17   17  -13       0.02    51.77    -2.25    37.92     6.24   -26.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.09    39.82R    4.68  
Swansea          17   15   -9      -5.36    17.39    -4.54    40.42     6.41   -14.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.22    22.45R    1.97  
Sunderland       17   12  -15      -4.41    21.18    -4.09    31.04     5.97   -30.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    80.08R   26.02  
Aston_Villa      17    7  -17      -7.89     5.46    -3.64    26.43     5.96   -31.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    93.26R   61.87  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 20 December 2015, Leeds_United 1 0 Preston; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Middlesbrough   22   46  +21       6.80    85.09     7.78    88.55     6.95    34.63    42.92    71.70    98.96    80.80P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           22   44  +20       4.56    74.82     6.12    87.39     7.01    35.70    36.26    65.94    98.36    76.56P    0.00     0.00  
Brighton        22   43   +8      11.17    95.22     5.18    77.77     7.02    11.22     3.87    12.96    77.59    25.36P    0.00     0.00  
Hull            22   41  +15       2.53    63.81     3.08    82.32     7.04    27.21    12.84    33.72    92.68    53.40P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley         22   38  +10       1.87    60.33     1.25    76.56     7.20    18.37     3.36    11.42    73.71    29.09P    0.00R    0.00  
Ipswich         22   34   +2       1.64    59.67    -1.42    69.18     7.16     5.54     0.29     1.40    32.94     7.94P    0.02R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       22   33   +5       3.22    68.78     5.07    65.67     7.00     5.05     0.08     0.44    18.02     3.71P    0.09R    0.00  
Birmingham      22   33   +4       3.66    71.04     4.86    64.92     7.04     2.94     0.03     0.32    15.12     2.84P    0.13R    0.01  
Cardiff         22   33   +4       2.20    62.93     2.65    66.92     7.06     5.79     0.11     0.64    22.68     4.94P    0.07R    0.00  
Brentford       22   32   +2      -0.17    49.17    -0.97    66.82     7.22     4.95     0.12     0.79    22.91     5.19P    0.10R    0.01  
Reading         22   30   +3       0.47    53.25     3.67    62.15     7.09     2.23     0.02     0.13     8.49     1.65P    0.52R    0.03  
QPR             22   29   -1      -3.15    32.79    -4.00    63.98     7.38     2.43     0.05     0.29    13.96     3.34P    0.35R    0.02  
Leeds_United    22   29   -2       1.59    60.19     1.51    59.02     6.86    -5.51     0.00     0.02     3.21     0.53P    1.41R    0.09  
Blackburn       22   28   +3      -3.84    28.63     0.18    61.95     7.02     4.94     0.01     0.09     8.20     1.93P    0.53R    0.02  
Nott'm_Forest   22   28   +1      -2.20    37.83     0.52    61.24     7.02     1.72     0.02     0.09     6.62     1.40P    0.66R    0.05  
Preston         22   25   -1      -3.20    32.18     0.86    56.24     6.96    -2.39     0.00     0.01     1.60     0.32P    3.59R    0.32  
Wolverhampton   22   25   -4      -6.13    18.59    -5.54    59.19     7.15    -1.91     0.01     0.04     3.93     0.87P    1.73R    0.12  
Fulham          22   24   -3      -4.40    26.81     0.29    53.87     7.17    -8.40     0.00     0.00     0.81     0.12P    7.96R    1.16  
Huddersfield    22   21  -10      -3.71    29.30    -1.68    48.12     6.92   -18.60     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.02P   27.35R    5.87  
Bristol_City    22   20  -17      -4.02    28.18    -7.56    46.86     7.06   -26.41     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.00P   36.32R    9.57  
MK_Dons         22   19  -12      -6.41    17.00    -5.21    46.71     7.04   -19.38     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P   34.88R    9.06  
Rotherham       22   18  -14      -3.92    27.60    -1.37    42.36     6.69   -26.96     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    60.91R   24.04  
Charlton        22   18  -19      -4.83    22.79    -8.47    43.21     6.74   -29.95     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    57.31R   20.46  
Bolton          22   14  -15     -10.35     4.91    -6.81    41.15     6.87   -23.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    66.06R   29.17  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 20 December 2015, Walsall 2 0 Port_Vale; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Burton_Albion    22   45  +11      13.23    97.10     8.41    79.48     7.37    13.47    16.68    32.78    78.94    41.77P    0.00R    0.00  
Walsall          21   42  +18       8.03    88.21    10.33    82.14     7.40    26.74    30.17    49.72    88.76    59.74P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham       22   41  +14       6.86    83.16     8.08    77.98     7.37    20.33    13.30    27.65    74.37    38.19P    0.01R    0.00  
Coventry         22   40  +16       5.46    78.28     9.36    77.81     7.27    23.36    13.01    27.07    74.50    38.59P    0.01R    0.00  
Wigan            22   37  +11      -1.71    39.81    -1.62    78.97     7.27    24.26    16.27    32.93    79.32    49.60P    0.00R    0.00  
Peterborough     22   34  +13      -1.83    39.82     4.15    73.20     7.37    22.72     4.75    11.69    52.17    23.03P    0.09R    0.00  
Southend         21   34   +6       5.64    79.52     6.47    68.18     7.56     6.15     1.11     3.34    24.80     7.80P    0.74R    0.02  
Bradford         21   34   +3       4.62    75.74     1.87    69.16     7.30     4.66     1.26     3.93    27.82     8.93P    0.43R    0.01  
Sheff_Utd        22   33   +4      -1.73    40.33    -2.83    69.99     7.28    10.17     1.76     5.11    32.76    12.69P    0.29R    0.00  
Bury             22   33   -1       5.60    78.67     3.58    63.07     7.37    -5.63     0.16     0.63     8.51     2.03P    3.83R    0.13  
Millwall         21   31   +0       0.24    51.74    -2.98    67.03     7.69     2.51     0.85     2.64    20.64     7.01P    1.41R    0.05  
Rochdale         22   30   +2      -0.83    45.45     1.02    64.62     7.31     4.37     0.30     1.07    12.44     3.78P    2.11R    0.08  
Port_Vale        22   30   +1       0.79    54.78     2.42    61.51     7.18    -1.12     0.09     0.35     5.69     1.48P    5.09R    0.27  
Swindon          22   28   -3      -5.29    22.97    -7.75    63.95     7.36     1.42     0.21     0.81    10.82     3.37P    2.78R    0.10  
Doncaster        22   28   -5      -1.33    42.72    -3.81    60.13     7.23    -6.11     0.05     0.18     3.85     0.92P    7.79R    0.42  
Scunthorpe       22   27   -4      -0.65    47.14     0.07    57.32     7.14    -8.10     0.01     0.04     1.69     0.40P   14.48R    1.07  
Blackpool        22   25   -9      -2.07    38.98    -4.70    54.84     7.14   -13.19     0.00     0.01     0.67     0.17P   24.54R    2.59  
Chesterfield     22   23  -12      -5.74    20.48    -9.73    53.80     7.26   -15.58     0.01     0.02     0.62     0.15P   29.55R    3.70  
Fleetwood_Town   21   22   -2      -4.79    24.02     1.02    53.84     7.30    -5.52     0.00     0.02     0.67     0.14P   27.44R    3.26  
Shrewsbury       22   22   -6      -6.15    19.15    -3.01    52.82     7.35    -9.02     0.00     0.01     0.43     0.09P   33.14R    4.76  
Barnsley         22   21  -10      -7.78    13.21    -7.58    52.83     7.27   -11.90     0.00     0.01     0.41     0.09P   33.21R    4.66  
Oldham           21   20  -10      -4.32    26.16    -3.11    49.54     7.23   -17.10     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.03P   51.99R   10.54  
Crewe            22   20  -15      -1.93    39.63    -1.99    43.80     6.76   -29.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    81.76R   34.74  
Colchester       22   20  -22      -2.48    36.59    -7.64    44.43     7.02   -37.31     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   79.31R   33.62  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 19 December 2015, Barnet 4 2 Crawley_Town; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Plymouth             22   43  +14       7.23    85.03     5.78    82.20     7.22    23.13    28.51    62.60    91.45    70.44P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton          22   43  +10       9.89    91.89     5.63    79.78     7.39    15.78    17.44    48.27    84.02    56.03P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           22   41  +14       6.49    82.48     7.54    78.68     7.26    21.08    14.60    43.66    81.83    53.66P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           22   40  +20       3.59    69.43    10.58    79.03     7.37    29.11    17.35    47.52    83.66    57.45P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle             22   37   +5       6.38    81.35     4.87    70.10     7.51     4.62     1.88     9.67    38.53    15.07P    0.01R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   20   36  +12       7.71    87.47    10.95    73.67     7.86    14.81     5.94    21.51    58.31    28.83P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       22   36   +8       4.42    73.43     5.76    70.59     7.41    10.60     2.11    10.70    41.87    18.09P    0.00R    0.00  
Mansfield            22   34  +10       5.02    76.80    11.56    65.75     7.19     8.48     0.41     3.12    20.00     6.46P    0.03R    0.00  
Wycombe              21   34   +6       1.18    56.87     0.01    72.66     7.51    12.46     3.82    16.93    53.01    26.64P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient        22   33   +5      -5.72    20.86    -8.06    74.66     7.49    18.38     6.62    25.26    64.44    39.21P    0.00R    0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        22   30   +0       1.92    61.46     3.52    61.28     7.37    -2.92     0.08     0.84     7.53     2.06P    0.38R    0.07  
Exeter               21   30   +0       1.20    57.53     0.31    63.77     7.51    -1.08     0.25     1.96    13.60     4.34P    0.15R    0.03  
Luton                22   29   +4      -3.78    29.64     0.21    64.48     7.41     7.81     0.26     2.37    16.60     6.21P    0.07R    0.01  
AFC_Wimbledon        22   29   -1       0.53    53.62     1.75    59.83     7.28    -4.27     0.04     0.50     5.27     1.57P    0.47R    0.08  
Notts_County         22   29   -5      -3.66    30.91    -8.64    65.37     7.57     0.12     0.42     2.87    18.62     7.26P    0.12R    0.02  
Crawley_Town         22   28   -8      -2.72    35.73    -8.62    61.56     7.58    -7.31     0.09     0.92     8.34     2.78P    0.37R    0.07  
Morecambe            21   27   -1      -1.20    43.71     0.35    60.87     7.64    -2.20     0.13     0.88     7.79     2.41P    0.43R    0.06  
Stevenage            22   26   -8      -4.24    27.78    -7.85    58.98     7.42    -8.20     0.04     0.37     4.23     1.28P    0.80R    0.15  
Barnet               22   25   -7      -0.38    49.08     1.13    52.96     7.38   -15.38     0.00     0.05     0.73     0.17P    5.15R    1.38  
Newport_County       22   20   -9      -6.09    19.00    -2.65    48.85     7.19   -15.40     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.04P   12.72R    4.27  
Hartlepool           21   20  -15      -1.36    43.03    -3.56    44.96     7.04   -29.54     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.01P   29.68R   12.46  
York                 22   15  -20      -9.26     7.88   -10.75    41.16     7.01   -30.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    50.04R   26.26  
Yeovil               22   13  -15     -14.11     1.69   -10.38    42.12     7.29   -20.57     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    41.76R   20.84  
Dag_&_Red            22   13  -19     -11.23     3.98    -9.46    39.67     7.07   -28.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    57.83R   34.27  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 19 December 2015, Aldershot 1 0 Guiseley; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Cheltenham       25   53  +32       2.70    63.90     7.07    95.23     6.27    52.97    70.11    99.42    81.38P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     24   49  +18       6.90    83.36     3.92    86.76     6.83    29.67    12.52    88.85    31.41P    0.00     0.00  
Eastleigh        24   46  +11       7.33    84.07     2.24    81.38     6.92    19.09     3.53    67.21    14.94P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          24   45  +26      -1.44    40.93     5.34    86.00     6.58    42.40    11.90    89.12    40.13P    0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic   26   43   +9       4.24    71.15     4.53    73.28     6.44    13.25     0.18    21.61     3.76P    0.00     0.00  
Macclesfield     26   41  +11       0.26    51.33     3.51    72.21     6.38    16.73     0.08    17.84     3.53P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City     25   41   +9       5.13    75.43     6.80    70.79     6.64    10.17     0.11    13.20     2.07P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham          23   40  +15       2.33    62.79     5.79    76.18     6.99    21.97     0.86    39.42     8.81P    0.00     0.00  
Braintree_Town   23   40  +10       5.87    80.11     6.07    75.25     6.89    15.51     0.56    32.43     6.58P    0.00     0.00  
Woking           25   37  +11      -3.34    32.94     1.65    70.20     6.63    17.65     0.07    12.34     2.60P    0.00R    0.00  
Gateshead        25   37   -9       3.79    69.97    -6.85    64.02     6.56   -12.06     0.00     1.69     0.21P    0.10R    0.00  
Tranmere         25   35   +6      -8.06    13.91    -7.20    71.18     6.71    16.97     0.08    15.30     4.36P    0.00     0.00  
Bromley          24   33   +1       2.44    63.29     5.93    61.04     7.14    -3.53     0.00     1.17     0.17P    0.66R    0.03  
Chester          26   33   -5       2.73    65.06     3.98    58.88     6.32    -7.69     0.00     0.19     0.02P    0.81R    0.05  
Barrow           25   32  -15       6.59    82.09     0.36    54.35     6.56   -25.69     0.00     0.05     0.01P    5.59R    0.50  
Aldershot        25   31  -10       0.08    51.14    -4.71    57.37     6.49   -13.87     0.00     0.13     0.01P    1.70R    0.12  
Guiseley         26   30  -14       2.66    65.00    -0.68    48.06     5.91   -28.85     0.00     0.00     0.00    23.66R    3.60  
Southport        24   27  -11       1.82    61.42     1.22    51.64     6.57   -19.60     0.00     0.01     0.00    11.10R    1.67  
Altrincham       24   26  -16       2.21    63.98    -1.50    50.19     6.53   -25.32     0.00     0.01     0.00P   16.01R    2.60  
Welling          24   24   -9      -3.08    33.47    -0.49    48.47     6.48   -17.60     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.45R    4.13  
Boreham_Wood     25   22   -7      -5.99    20.82     1.91    45.52     6.37   -14.49     0.00     0.00     0.00    35.99R    8.78  
Halifax          24   18  -23     -10.60     6.47   -14.83    41.80     6.59   -34.79     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.15R   25.83  
Torquay          24   17  -24     -10.97     5.47   -15.63    43.99     6.68   -29.60     0.00     0.00     0.00    48.21R   15.78  
Kidderminster    24   14  -16     -13.96     1.73    -8.41    39.46     6.51   -23.30     0.00     0.00     0.00    72.56R   36.92