Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Saturday 19 December 2015 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 19 December 2015, Chelsea 3 1 Sunderland; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Leicester        17   38  +13      13.15    98.57    10.79    67.10     6.66    12.74     5.68    19.64    40.65    59.52    83.73     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          16   33  +16       1.93    62.68     2.08    75.06     6.56    34.76    36.96    70.80    85.87    93.28    98.49     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         16   32  +15      -1.11    40.35    -3.52    76.66     6.54    38.76    50.27    78.23    90.09    95.45    99.11     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        17   29  +14       1.26    58.30     7.40    64.03     6.65    23.38     2.62    10.76    26.74    44.86    74.05     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          17   29   +8      -0.92    43.60    -1.82    65.48     6.51    19.35     3.44    13.88    33.07    52.56    80.09     0.00     0.00  
Crystal_Palace   17   29   +7       7.10    88.96     8.97    57.12     6.54     6.03     0.20     1.20     4.44    10.46    30.94     0.07R    0.00  
Watford          16   25   +2       5.15    81.58     5.42    50.49     6.83    -5.29     0.02     0.18     0.80     2.14     8.28     1.51R    0.04  
West_Ham         16   24   +4       2.76    69.12     5.19    54.25     6.84     4.09     0.08     0.59     2.32     5.77    19.23     0.38R    0.00  
Liverpool        16   24   +1      -0.57    45.85    -2.88    59.20     6.96     8.52     0.54     3.17     9.56    18.79    44.12     0.05R    0.00  
Everton          17   23   +7      -3.11    29.90     2.89    55.98     6.70    13.22     0.14     1.03     3.88     9.34    28.36     0.18R    0.00  
Stoke            17   23   -2       0.86    56.64    -0.58    49.48     6.34    -4.98     0.01     0.04     0.23     0.92     4.97     1.56R    0.03  
Southampton      17   21   +0      -4.78    20.87    -3.62    51.40     6.57     2.37     0.01     0.17     0.75     2.29     9.81     0.86R    0.04  
West_Brom        17   20   -6       0.88    57.40     0.15    44.59     6.38   -12.49     0.00     0.01     0.03     0.14     1.05     8.60R    0.42  
Bournemouth      17   19  -10       1.23    59.81    -0.07    40.15     6.48   -23.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.23    26.66R    2.50  
Chelsea          17   18   -6     -11.44     2.41   -15.25    53.67     6.64     4.30     0.04     0.30     1.54     4.38    16.83     0.49R    0.01  
Norwich          17   17   -9      -1.12    43.64    -0.36    40.09     6.53   -18.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.26    25.60R    2.76  
Newcastle        17   17  -13      -0.03    51.09    -2.31    37.92     6.22   -26.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04    39.32R    4.75  
Swansea          16   14   -9      -5.03    18.20    -4.50    40.79     6.65   -14.07     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.06     0.39    21.66R    1.95  
Sunderland       17   12  -15      -4.46    21.03    -4.24    31.00     5.95   -30.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    80.28R   26.03  
Aston_Villa      17    7  -17      -7.93     5.41    -3.76    26.42     6.05   -31.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    92.78R   61.45  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 19 December 2015, Bolton 2 2 Fulham; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Middlesbrough   22   46  +21       6.66    84.44     7.62    88.67     6.94    34.79    43.16    72.24    99.01    81.28P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           22   44  +20       4.49    74.65     6.06    87.50     6.97    35.92    36.32    66.33    98.52    77.02P    0.00     0.00  
Brighton        22   43   +8      11.20    95.21     5.23    77.69     7.02    11.08     3.66    12.43    77.41    24.76P    0.00     0.00  
Hull            22   41  +15       2.53    63.86     3.09    82.34     7.07    27.20    13.10    34.02    92.77    53.50P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley         22   38  +10       2.12    62.06     1.59    76.24     7.19    17.96     2.96    10.48    72.53    27.73P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich         22   34   +2       1.61    59.32    -1.43    69.28     7.16     5.65     0.28     1.50    33.83     8.40P    0.02R    0.00  
Birmingham      22   33   +4       3.66    71.06     4.85    64.94     7.07     2.99     0.07     0.39    15.58     3.01P    0.18R    0.01  
Cardiff         22   33   +4       2.34    63.76     2.81    66.83     7.05     5.65     0.11     0.71    22.36     4.81P    0.05R    0.00  
Brentford       22   32   +2      -0.16    49.23    -0.94    66.80     7.26     4.95     0.17     0.86    23.33     5.37P    0.09R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       21   30   +2       2.27    64.05     3.00    63.36     7.18     1.15     0.03     0.18    11.27     2.16P    0.35R    0.00  
QPR             22   29   -1      -3.04    33.38    -3.80    63.86     7.33     2.22     0.04     0.28    13.49     3.19P    0.36R    0.01  
Blackburn       21   28   +4      -2.84    33.54     0.70    63.58     7.22     6.34     0.05     0.30    12.79     3.08P    0.31R    0.03  
Nott'm_Forest   22   28   +1      -2.44    36.32     0.20    61.46     7.04     2.10     0.01     0.08     7.31     1.51P    0.67R    0.04  
Reading         21   27   +2      -0.80    45.72     3.21    60.08     7.25     0.54     0.02     0.07     5.67     1.11P    1.21R    0.09  
Leeds_United    21   26   -3       0.31    52.80     1.03    57.07     7.11    -6.91     0.00     0.01     2.13     0.33P    3.25R    0.32  
Preston         21   25   +0      -2.14    37.76     1.53    57.76     7.27    -1.24     0.00     0.02     3.06     0.63P    2.67R    0.25  
Wolverhampton   21   25   -1      -5.64    20.15    -3.85    61.41     7.31     2.40     0.01     0.10     7.94     1.96P    0.82R    0.06  
Fulham          22   24   -3      -4.29    27.09     0.45    53.79     7.14    -8.55     0.00     0.00     0.84     0.12P    8.26R    1.24  
Huddersfield    22   21  -10      -3.70    29.48    -1.70    48.16     6.92   -18.57     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P   27.24R    5.91  
Bristol_City    22   20  -17      -4.06    28.20    -7.65    46.81     7.04   -26.50     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00    36.66R    9.74  
MK_Dons         22   19  -12      -6.38    17.13    -5.14    46.60     7.00   -19.45     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00P   35.30R    9.06  
Rotherham       22   18  -14      -3.81    28.23    -1.25    42.34     6.72   -27.03     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   61.09R   24.34  
Charlton        22   18  -19      -5.06    21.77    -8.83    43.47     6.69   -29.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    55.65R   19.35  
Bolton          22   14  -15     -10.31     5.09    -6.77    41.14     6.87   -23.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    65.82R   29.55  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 19 December 2015, Barnsley 0 2 Wigan; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Burton_Albion    22   45  +11      13.24    97.03     8.45    79.47     7.34    13.45    17.94    33.87    79.01    42.82P    0.01R    0.00  
Gillingham       22   41  +14       6.85    83.16     8.08    78.08     7.40    20.44    14.56    29.21    74.61    39.68P    0.00R    0.00  
Coventry         22   40  +16       5.53    78.41     9.47    77.69     7.31    23.22    13.62    27.94    74.12    39.35P    0.01R    0.00  
Walsall          20   39  +16       7.01    85.80     9.23    80.61     7.63    24.90    24.90    42.85    83.65    53.33P    0.00     0.00  
Wigan            22   37  +11      -1.65    40.35    -1.46    78.89     7.29    24.07    17.31    33.87    79.34    49.85P    0.01R    0.00  
Peterborough     22   34  +13      -1.91    39.07     3.95    73.33     7.33    22.94     5.14    12.58    53.35    24.00P    0.06R    0.00  
Southend         21   34   +6       5.75    80.03     6.64    68.02     7.56     5.88     1.16     3.29    24.39     7.55P    0.82R    0.01  
Bradford         21   34   +3       4.53    75.23     1.77    69.24     7.33     4.78     1.48     4.17    28.48     9.46P    0.40R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd        22   33   +4      -1.73    40.09    -2.87    70.02     7.23    10.19     1.77     5.39    33.03    12.81P    0.28R    0.01  
Bury             22   33   -1       5.58    78.53     3.59    63.09     7.46    -5.56     0.24     0.77     8.81     2.23P    3.99R    0.17  
Millwall         21   31   +0       0.33    52.18    -2.80    66.86     7.73     2.28     0.95     2.83    20.23     7.07P    1.44R    0.05  
Port_Vale        21   30   +3       1.24    57.64     3.07    63.11     7.40     1.26     0.26     0.82     9.11     2.56P    3.38R    0.16  
Rochdale         22   30   +2      -0.85    45.44     1.02    64.48     7.36     4.16     0.32     1.11    12.37     3.63P    2.28R    0.09  
Swindon          22   28   -3      -5.36    22.34    -7.83    63.99     7.36     1.49     0.27     0.96    11.04     3.66P    2.77R    0.12  
Doncaster        22   28   -5      -1.31    43.08    -3.75    60.04     7.30    -6.25     0.04     0.21     3.88     0.97P    8.20R    0.49  
Scunthorpe       22   27   -4      -0.60    47.21     0.08    57.36     7.19    -8.03     0.01     0.05     1.80     0.41P   14.62R    1.10  
Blackpool        22   25   -9      -1.83    40.21    -4.40    54.65     7.17   -13.43     0.00     0.02     0.70     0.17P   25.66R    2.78  
Chesterfield     22   23  -12      -5.70    20.96    -9.70    53.75     7.22   -15.61     0.00     0.02     0.47     0.10P   29.96R    3.74  
Fleetwood_Town   21   22   -2      -4.68    24.39     1.11    53.83     7.30    -5.53     0.00     0.02     0.63     0.15P   27.59R    3.42  
Shrewsbury       22   22   -6      -6.17    18.96    -3.13    52.82     7.31    -9.04     0.01     0.01     0.40     0.10P   32.95R    4.61  
Barnsley         22   21  -10      -7.85    13.01    -7.69    52.89     7.31   -11.78     0.00     0.01     0.45     0.09P   33.24R    4.61  
Oldham           21   20  -10      -4.35    26.04    -3.20    49.68     7.22   -16.92     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.02P   51.05R   10.38  
Crewe            22   20  -15      -1.97    39.32    -2.07    43.84     6.80   -29.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    81.64R   34.80  
Colchester       22   20  -22      -2.43    37.29    -7.56    44.43     7.02   -37.39     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   79.65R   33.46  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 19 December 2015, Barnet 4 2 Crawley_Town; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Plymouth             22   43  +14       7.28    85.37     5.84    82.08     7.19    23.01    28.23    62.14    91.48    70.17P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton          22   43  +10      10.01    91.89     5.85    79.61     7.44    15.51    17.78    47.43    83.30    55.13P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           22   41  +14       6.49    82.54     7.56    78.66     7.24    21.04    14.61    43.95    82.09    53.75P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           22   40  +20       3.61    69.27    10.63    78.99     7.35    29.05    17.27    47.65    83.89    57.70P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle             22   37   +5       6.48    82.05     4.98    70.09     7.51     4.61     1.99     9.90    38.59    15.37P    0.00R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   20   36  +12       7.47    86.64    10.58    73.86     7.86    15.11     6.07    22.38    59.08    29.94P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       22   36   +8       4.47    73.57     5.85    70.52     7.37    10.49     1.96    10.54    41.74    17.77P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield            22   34  +10       4.99    76.99    11.53    65.73     7.19     8.47     0.38     3.02    19.96     6.52P    0.03R    0.00  
Wycombe              21   34   +6       1.20    56.84     0.02    72.61     7.56    12.40     3.84    16.98    52.60    26.48P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient        22   33   +5      -5.58    21.85    -7.83    74.55     7.51    18.19     6.46    24.79    64.00    38.62P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        22   30   +0       1.87    61.23     3.48    61.19     7.34    -3.04     0.08     0.80     7.46     2.10P    0.37R    0.06  
Exeter               21   30   +0       1.23    57.40     0.34    63.72     7.60    -1.14     0.26     2.12    13.71     4.60P    0.12R    0.02  
Luton                22   29   +4      -3.69    30.55     0.32    64.34     7.38     7.57     0.31     2.40    16.18     6.15P    0.09R    0.02  
AFC_Wimbledon        22   29   -1       0.39    52.76     1.54    60.03     7.23    -3.92     0.04     0.46     5.52     1.49P    0.44R    0.05  
Notts_County         22   29   -5      -3.65    30.99    -8.63    65.40     7.59     0.18     0.47     3.24    18.81     7.58P    0.09R    0.02  
Crawley_Town         22   28   -8      -2.81    35.31    -8.71    61.63     7.56    -7.16     0.11     0.88     8.53     2.79P    0.35R    0.08  
Morecambe            21   27   -1      -1.36    42.64     0.08    61.08     7.58    -1.85     0.09     0.92     8.12     2.44P    0.45R    0.10  
Stevenage            22   26   -8      -4.31    27.52    -7.95    59.02     7.39    -8.15     0.03     0.35     4.10     1.21P    0.85R    0.17  
Barnet               22   25   -7      -0.19    49.98     1.45    52.73     7.33   -15.77     0.01     0.03     0.66     0.16P    5.56R    1.55  
Newport_County       22   20   -9      -6.25    18.34    -2.88    49.03     7.18   -15.11     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.04P   12.22R    4.11  
Hartlepool           21   20  -15      -1.33    43.17    -3.55    45.00     7.03   -29.48     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   29.48R   12.16  
York                 22   15  -20      -9.20     8.02   -10.66    41.20     7.02   -30.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   49.96R   26.66  
Yeovil               22   13  -15     -14.15     1.59   -10.45    42.16     7.32   -20.47     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   41.90R   20.79  
Dag_&_Red            22   13  -19     -11.18     4.11    -9.37    39.66     7.01   -29.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    58.08R   34.22  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 19 December 2015, Aldershot 1 0 Guiseley; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Cheltenham       25   53  +32       2.53    63.14     6.76    95.34     6.27    53.18    70.70    99.55    81.82P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     24   49  +18       6.98    83.59     4.02    86.68     6.82    29.58    11.93    88.50    30.81P    0.00     0.00  
Eastleigh        24   46  +11       7.47    84.59     2.44    81.30     6.86    18.97     3.35    66.86    14.65P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          24   45  +26      -1.52    40.34     5.21    86.13     6.56    42.65    12.30    89.57    40.75P    0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic   26   43   +9       4.11    70.47     4.36    73.33     6.46    13.34     0.15    21.94     3.86P    0.00     0.00  
Macclesfield     26   41  +11       0.34    51.80     3.62    72.22     6.43    16.73     0.08    18.18     3.60P    0.00R    0.00  
Lincoln_City     25   41   +9       5.10    75.63     6.77    70.71     6.60    10.07     0.06    12.84     1.94P    0.00R    0.00  
Wrexham          23   40  +15       2.34    62.74     5.81    76.25     7.00    22.02     0.85    40.14     8.97P    0.00     0.00  
Braintree_Town   23   40  +10       5.93    80.40     6.19    75.09     6.87    15.32     0.44    31.49     6.21P    0.00     0.00  
Woking           25   37  +11      -3.32    33.06     1.71    70.15     6.61    17.59     0.06    12.40     2.61P    0.00R    0.00  
Gateshead        25   37   -9       3.78    69.81    -6.84    63.98     6.55   -12.12     0.00     1.77     0.24P    0.10R    0.00  
Tranmere         25   35   +6      -8.02    13.97    -7.25    71.09     6.67    16.88     0.06    15.18     4.32P    0.00R    0.00  
Bromley          24   33   +1       2.40    62.99     5.84    61.14     7.15    -3.36     0.00     1.19     0.17P    0.57R    0.05  
Chester          26   33   -5       2.59    64.03     3.85    58.97     6.34    -7.60     0.00     0.17     0.01P    0.77R    0.04  
Barrow           25   32  -15       6.75    82.74     0.67    54.29     6.59   -25.81     0.00     0.04     0.00P    5.57R    0.55  
Aldershot        25   31  -10       0.05    51.02    -4.79    57.51     6.51   -13.68     0.00     0.16     0.01P    1.61R    0.13  
Guiseley         26   30  -14       2.62    64.71    -0.76    48.10     5.96   -28.89     0.00     0.00     0.00    23.42R    3.74  
Southport        24   27  -11       1.66    60.87     0.94    51.78     6.52   -19.36     0.00     0.01     0.00P   10.74R    1.43  
Altrincham       24   26  -16       2.14    63.60    -1.63    50.24     6.51   -25.25     0.00     0.00     0.00    15.73R    2.55  
Welling          24   24   -9      -3.03    33.79    -0.37    48.34     6.39   -17.78     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.78R    4.05  
Boreham_Wood     25   22   -7      -5.81    21.60     2.17    45.41     6.38   -14.71     0.00     0.00     0.00    36.80R    9.16  
Halifax          24   18  -23     -10.41     6.89   -14.47    41.71     6.61   -35.02     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.76R   26.21  
Torquay          24   17  -24     -10.95     5.59   -15.62    44.00     6.63   -29.58     0.00     0.00     0.00    48.01R   15.29  
Kidderminster    24   14  -16     -14.10     1.65    -8.63    39.47     6.50   -23.16     0.00     0.00     0.00    72.12R   36.80