Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 18 December 2015 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 14 December 2015, Leicester 2 1 Chelsea; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Leicester        16   35  +12      11.62    97.81     9.90    64.69     6.79    10.52     3.14    11.79    27.53    46.22    73.59     0.00R    0.00  
Arsenal          16   33  +16       1.86    62.25     1.97    75.31     6.54    35.25    38.58    71.66    87.25    94.05    98.73     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         16   32  +15      -1.10    40.56    -3.56    76.49     6.58    38.40    48.18    77.42    90.16    95.46    99.07     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          16   29   +9       0.79    55.08    -0.31    68.25     6.63    22.48     7.57    25.24    51.29    70.22    89.14     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        16   26  +12       0.13    50.75     6.12    61.69     6.84    20.35     1.32     6.35    17.30    32.20    61.37     0.01R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   16   26   +6       5.57    84.52     8.11    54.95     6.70     4.39     0.11     0.69     2.63     6.78    21.82     0.17R    0.00  
Watford          16   25   +2       5.22    82.12     5.51    50.73     6.77    -4.93     0.02     0.13     0.72     2.21     8.73     1.16R    0.02  
West_Ham         16   24   +4       2.59    68.14     5.01    54.38     6.84     4.34     0.08     0.62     2.39     6.16    20.20     0.28R    0.00  
Liverpool        16   24   +1      -0.53    46.09    -2.85    59.17     6.93     8.47     0.49     2.95     9.27    19.14    44.30     0.04R    0.00  
Everton          16   23   +8      -1.81    37.48     3.75    58.13     6.85    15.46     0.42     2.30     7.62    16.61    40.85     0.06R    0.00  
Stoke            16   23   -1       2.01    64.45     0.09    51.22     6.51    -3.37     0.02     0.13     0.74     2.10     8.94     0.67R    0.02  
Southampton      16   21   +2      -3.87    24.62    -2.32    53.30     6.78     5.18     0.06     0.44     1.75     4.83    16.59     0.39R    0.00  
West_Brom        16   20   -5       2.19    66.46     0.96    46.64     6.60   -10.42     0.00     0.02     0.12     0.41     2.39     4.77R    0.22  
Bournemouth      16   16  -11      -0.27    49.64    -0.78    37.74     6.61   -25.95     0.00     0.01     0.01     0.02     0.11    37.30R    5.36  
Newcastle        16   16  -13       0.48    55.04    -2.13    38.64     6.50   -25.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.15    32.00R    4.51  
Chelsea          16   15   -8     -12.02     1.57   -15.64    52.48     6.80     2.99     0.02     0.24     1.22     3.54    13.61     0.72R    0.02  
Swansea          16   14   -9      -5.03    18.00    -4.49    40.77     6.60   -14.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.32    19.08R    1.80  
Norwich          16   14  -10      -2.93    30.72    -1.56    37.06     6.60   -21.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.10    39.64R    6.88  
Sunderland       16   12  -13      -4.07    22.39    -3.93    31.89     6.14   -29.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    72.89R   21.14  
Aston_Villa      16    6  -17      -7.67     4.99    -3.84    26.52     6.18   -32.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.84R   60.01  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Friday 18 December 2015, Birmingham 1 0 Cardiff; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Middlesbrough   21   43  +18       5.99    82.67     6.09    86.10     7.08    30.49    30.63    56.36    97.46    69.59P    0.00     0.00  
Brighton        21   43  +11      11.64    96.43     6.99    79.83     7.21    15.20     8.00    21.45    84.82    34.44P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           21   41  +19       3.32    69.08     5.68    85.77     7.24    34.77    30.60    56.06    96.90    69.81P    0.00     0.00  
Hull            21   41  +17       3.69    70.73     4.82    85.35     7.26    31.53    27.53    53.24    96.48    67.75P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley         21   35   +6       1.94    61.28    -0.32    74.22     7.34    13.46     1.98     7.04    61.60    21.19P    0.01R    0.00  
Ipswich         21   34   +3       2.62    65.09    -0.99    70.66     7.34     6.67     0.72     2.73    40.92    10.40P    0.02R    0.00  
Birmingham      22   33   +4       3.69    70.91     4.85    64.92     7.09     2.93     0.07     0.41    15.39     2.88P    0.16R    0.00  
Cardiff         22   33   +4       2.26    63.11     2.70    66.98     7.09     5.86     0.15     0.80    23.17     5.20P    0.08R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       21   30   +2       2.23    63.58     2.93    63.34     7.21     1.15     0.03     0.22    11.29     2.20P    0.38R    0.01  
Brentford       21   29   +0      -0.98    44.50    -1.77    65.24     7.41     3.10     0.10     0.59    17.76     4.07P    0.26R    0.01  
Blackburn       21   28   +4      -2.76    34.18     0.83    63.57     7.19     6.36     0.05     0.29    12.47     3.02P    0.34R    0.02  
QPR             21   28   -1      -2.59    35.36    -3.70    64.63     7.61     2.78     0.11     0.48    16.24     4.04P    0.47R    0.02  
Reading         21   27   +2      -0.82    45.63     3.17    60.07     7.23     0.57     0.01     0.08     5.46     1.09P    1.34R    0.09  
Leeds_United    21   26   -3       0.37    53.20     1.12    57.02     7.09    -7.00     0.00     0.01     1.99     0.36P    3.41R    0.28  
Nott'm_Forest   21   25   +0      -3.36    30.79     0.20    59.87     7.26     1.09     0.01     0.05     5.36     1.04P    1.42R    0.06  
Preston         21   25   +0      -2.23    37.42     1.36    57.88     7.21    -1.01     0.01     0.04     3.06     0.65P    2.56R    0.16  
Wolverhampton   21   25   -1      -5.78    19.51    -4.04    61.54     7.36     2.65     0.01     0.13     8.23     2.07P    0.93R    0.06  
Fulham          21   23   -3      -3.91    28.83     0.35    54.16     7.33    -8.50     0.00     0.00     1.06     0.15P    8.27R    1.14  
Huddersfield    21   21   -8      -3.08    32.55    -1.04    49.31     7.16   -16.72     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.03P   23.09R    4.17  
MK_Dons         21   19  -11      -5.57    20.06    -5.05    47.86     7.24   -18.60     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.01P   30.21R    6.25  
Bristol_City    21   19  -17      -3.63    29.84    -7.57    46.62     7.29   -27.34     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P   38.80R    9.61  
Charlton        21   18  -15      -4.97    21.84    -6.87    44.99     6.95   -25.06     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   46.75R   12.15  
Rotherham       21   15  -16      -5.29    19.77    -2.94    39.14     6.80   -31.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    77.42R   40.83  
Bolton          21   13  -15      -9.87     5.11    -6.77    41.59     7.06   -22.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    64.09R   25.14  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Friday 18 December 2015, Southend 4 1 Bury; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Burton_Albion    21   44  +11      13.83    97.92     8.74    80.10     7.57    13.85    20.63    37.50    81.39    46.02P    0.00R    0.00  
Coventry         21   39  +16       6.23    81.76     9.97    78.90     7.50    24.48    17.93    34.29    79.24    45.31P    0.00R    0.00  
Walsall          20   39  +16       6.85    85.38     9.01    80.79     7.62    25.16    25.16    44.04    84.99    54.68P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham       21   38  +11       6.09    81.36     6.44    75.18     7.60    15.38     8.08    18.13    61.68    27.45P    0.04R    0.00  
Peterborough     21   34  +15      -0.88    44.76     5.35    75.58     7.57    26.32     9.36    20.71    65.75    33.82P    0.06R    0.00  
Wigan            21   34   +9      -2.53    35.18    -2.38    76.95     7.55    21.66    12.03    25.57    71.08    41.33P    0.05R    0.00  
Southend         21   34   +6       5.68    79.73     6.52    68.16     7.60     6.04     1.26     3.70    25.78     8.37P    0.84R    0.02  
Bury             22   33   -1       5.71    79.49     3.80    62.89     7.37    -5.91     0.15     0.67     8.59     2.02P    4.37R    0.17  
Millwall         20   31   +3       0.92    55.66    -1.05    69.64     7.89     7.42     2.43     6.18    33.05    13.02P    0.69R    0.02  
Bradford         20   31   +2       3.13    68.81     1.10    67.26     7.51     3.22     0.93     2.71    21.84     6.85P    1.23R    0.03  
Sheff_Utd        21   30   +3      -2.95    33.05    -3.23    68.26     7.54     9.03     1.31     3.73    27.06    10.10P    0.83R    0.03  
Port_Vale        21   30   +3       1.31    57.76     3.19    62.86     7.34     0.88     0.19     0.73     8.86     2.38P    4.07R    0.16  
Rochdale         21   27   +0      -1.60    41.20     0.41    63.18     7.55     2.75     0.25     0.88    10.20     3.11P    4.17R    0.25  
Scunthorpe       21   27   -3       0.40    52.90     0.62    58.85     7.44    -6.94     0.03     0.15     3.33     0.76P   12.03R    0.92  
Doncaster        21   27   -5      -1.17    43.41    -4.06    60.02     7.38    -6.70     0.05     0.20     4.22     1.06P    9.24R    0.58  
Swindon          21   25   -4      -6.55    17.37    -8.19    62.14     7.58     0.04     0.16     0.62     8.26     2.55P    5.66R    0.38  
Chesterfield     21   23  -11      -4.64    24.96    -9.13    55.57     7.41   -13.94     0.01     0.05     1.19     0.29P   23.65R    2.71  
Shrewsbury       21   22   -5      -5.26    22.15    -2.67    54.67     7.58    -7.42     0.01     0.04     1.03     0.25P   26.67R    3.44  
Blackpool        21   22  -11      -3.07    33.16    -5.83    52.10     7.36   -16.89     0.00     0.01     0.40     0.09P   40.30R    6.70  
Fleetwood_Town   20   21   -2      -4.35    25.46     1.15    54.36     7.53    -5.35     0.00     0.04     1.01     0.25P   27.43R    3.86  
Barnsley         21   21   -8      -7.21    14.46    -6.78    54.57     7.41    -9.30     0.01     0.04     0.88     0.26P   26.82R    3.28  
Colchester       21   20  -20      -1.95    39.41    -7.11    45.56     7.25   -35.87     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P   75.75R   29.42  
Oldham           20   19  -10      -4.34    25.22    -3.72    49.31     7.38   -18.21     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.02P   54.98R   12.60  
Crewe            21   19  -15      -1.70    40.86    -2.17    44.11     7.01   -29.73     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   81.14R   35.44  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 15 December 2015, Wycombe 2 2 Notts_County; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Northampton          21   43  +11      10.93    94.18     6.14    81.46     7.66    17.18    24.58    56.68    88.00    63.36P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           21   41  +15       7.66    87.36     8.30    80.20     7.42    22.25    19.32    51.30    86.19    60.07P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth             21   40  +13       6.26    82.45     5.70    80.86     7.38    22.56    22.00    55.20    88.23    64.47P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           21   37  +19       2.34    63.33    10.20    76.97     7.53    27.46    11.41    36.73    75.89    47.76P    0.00     0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   19   35  +12       7.89    88.66    10.66    74.31     8.11    15.23     6.79    24.57    60.86    31.90P    0.00R    0.00  
Carlisle             21   34   +2       5.65    79.45     3.32    67.32     7.73    -0.34     0.86     5.45    26.12     9.20P    0.04R    0.00  
Mansfield            21   33  +10       5.49    79.66    11.71    65.95     7.43     8.19     0.58     3.71    21.27     7.16P    0.04R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       21   33   +5       3.90    71.88     4.34    68.14     7.62     6.41     1.03     6.40    30.21    11.68P    0.03R    0.00  
Leyton_Orient        21   32   +5      -4.98    23.35    -7.52    75.86     7.66    19.60     8.53    30.83    70.06    44.53P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              20   31   +5      -0.12    49.62    -0.49    70.61     7.71    10.87     2.39    11.58    43.02    20.04P    0.01R    0.00  
Exeter               20   30   +1       2.29    63.53     0.78    65.43     7.76     0.43     0.53     3.37    19.58     6.87P    0.13R    0.02  
Cambridge_Utd        21   29   +0       2.31    63.59     3.60    61.57     7.56    -3.10     0.10     1.06     8.70     2.55P    0.36R    0.06  
Notts_County         21   29   -2      -3.16    32.86    -6.99    68.03     7.83     5.13     1.07     6.58    30.40    13.21P    0.04R    0.01  
AFC_Wimbledon        21   28   -1       1.01    56.58     1.88    60.22     7.44    -4.21     0.06     0.53     6.10     1.63P    0.55R    0.09  
Crawley_Town         21   28   -6      -1.91    39.73    -7.50    64.07     7.80    -3.47     0.31     2.26    14.98     5.48P    0.18R    0.03  
Morecambe            20   27   +0      -0.01    50.35     1.05    62.97     7.84    -0.02     0.23     1.88    12.91     4.35P    0.31R    0.06  
Luton                21   26   +3      -5.08    23.06    -0.32    62.54     7.55     6.27     0.15     1.39    11.61     4.09P    0.17R    0.04  
Stevenage            21   25   -8      -3.88    28.92    -7.89    59.38     7.62    -8.17     0.05     0.47     5.27     1.52P    0.78R    0.17  
Barnet               21   22   -9      -1.38    43.09     0.02    50.14     7.49   -19.14     0.00     0.02     0.34     0.08P   10.48R    3.36  
Hartlepool           20   20  -14      -0.64    47.27    -3.60    45.97     7.18   -28.99     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.00P   24.24R    9.43  
Newport_County       21   19   -9      -5.84    19.25    -2.88    49.37     7.35   -15.07     0.00     0.00     0.22     0.07P   11.54R    3.66  
Dag_&_Red            21   13  -16     -10.88     4.37    -8.08    41.81     7.31   -24.69     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   44.56R   22.11  
Yeovil               21   12  -15     -14.10     1.45   -10.92    41.71     7.49   -21.77     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    44.08R   22.26  
York                 21   12  -21     -10.72     4.17   -11.49    38.89     7.18   -32.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.47R   38.70  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 8 December 2015, Gateshead 0 1 Southport; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Cheltenham       24   50  +31       1.62    57.99     6.88    94.87     6.42    54.09    71.32    99.31    82.10P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     23   46  +17       6.01    80.52     3.98    85.66     7.07    29.48    11.80    85.70    30.06P    0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic   25   43  +10       4.97    74.71     4.59    73.93     6.58    13.13     0.38    26.38     4.70P    0.00     0.00  
Eastleigh        23   43   +9       6.52    81.96     1.56    79.95     7.05    17.30     2.91    60.30    13.28P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          23   42  +25      -2.53    34.84     5.06    85.13     6.78    42.71    11.47    86.63    39.19P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham          23   40  +15       2.53    63.70     6.04    76.20     7.02    21.91     0.99    41.20     9.42P    0.00     0.00  
Braintree_Town   23   40  +10       5.92    80.48     6.18    75.05     6.90    15.21     0.63    32.67     6.72P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City     24   40   +9       5.83    78.87     7.32    72.00     6.87    11.51     0.21    18.73     3.06P    0.00R    0.00  
Macclesfield     25   38  +10      -0.76    45.76     3.47    70.60     6.55    15.72     0.07    13.79     2.82P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead        24   37   -5       4.09    71.52    -4.62    66.14     6.80    -6.82     0.02     4.07     0.60P    0.06R    0.00  
Woking           24   34   +7      -3.62    31.36    -0.16    67.60     6.85    12.00     0.02     7.33     1.52P    0.03R    0.00  
Tranmere         24   34   +6      -7.58    14.75    -7.05    72.21     6.88    18.03     0.18    21.01     6.04P    0.00     0.00  
Bromley          23   33   +3       3.26    67.38     6.78    63.13     7.34    -0.10     0.01     2.64     0.45P    0.35R    0.02  
Barrow           24   31  -15       6.89    83.59     0.20    53.82     6.77   -27.08     0.00     0.05     0.00P    7.87R    0.96  
Chester          25   30   -8       1.96    61.51     2.25    56.68     6.51   -11.56     0.00     0.09     0.01P    2.70R    0.26  
Guiseley         25   30  -13       3.50    69.31    -0.38    49.15     6.17   -28.40     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.16R    3.44  
Aldershot        24   28  -11      -1.01    45.02    -4.83    56.23     6.70   -14.20     0.00     0.07     0.01P    3.61R    0.40  
Altrincham       23   26  -15       2.74    66.90    -1.88    50.62     6.64   -26.18     0.00     0.01     0.00P   16.63R    2.83  
Welling          23   24   -8      -2.22    37.74    -0.12    49.72     6.66   -16.76     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.77R    3.65  
Southport        23   24  -13       0.58    54.62    -0.43    49.46     6.68   -22.23     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.91R    4.06  
Boreham_Wood     24   22   -6      -5.00    24.91     2.46    46.17     6.57   -14.77     0.00     0.00     0.00    35.54R    9.26  
Torquay          23   17  -21     -10.69     5.72   -14.55    46.00     6.89   -25.49     0.00     0.00     0.00    38.40R   11.62  
Halifax          23   17  -23     -10.35     6.54   -14.89    41.53     6.80   -36.07     0.00     0.00     0.00    66.30R   31.38  
Kidderminster    23   14  -14     -13.48     1.90    -7.87    40.70     6.72   -21.43     0.00     0.00     0.00    67.68R   32.13