Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Monday 14 December 2015 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 14 December 2015, Leicester 2 1 Chelsea; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Leicester        16   35  +12      11.71    97.99    10.01    64.64     6.80    10.34     3.21    11.73    27.53    45.63    73.41     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          16   33  +16       1.92    62.81     2.05    75.24     6.52    35.20    38.71    71.83    86.98    93.87    98.61     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         16   32  +15      -1.01    41.18    -3.38    76.31     6.55    38.15    47.56    76.70    89.58    95.34    99.09     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          16   29   +9       0.74    54.65    -0.40    68.29     6.65    22.57     7.77    25.58    51.91    70.34    89.02     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        16   26  +12       0.07    50.33     6.05    61.81     6.86    20.56     1.51     6.54    17.79    33.28    62.31     0.01R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   16   26   +6       5.54    84.06     8.09    55.02     6.67     4.45     0.07     0.69     2.61     6.78    21.79     0.16R    0.01  
Watford          16   25   +2       5.26    82.08     5.54    50.62     6.74    -5.09     0.01     0.17     0.69     2.07     8.38     1.14R    0.02  
West_Ham         16   24   +4       2.67    68.66     5.10    54.31     6.79     4.21     0.10     0.58     2.26     5.79    19.56     0.29R    0.01  
Liverpool        16   24   +1      -0.55    46.19    -2.87    59.23     6.92     8.57     0.57     3.02     9.20    19.43    44.68     0.05R    0.00  
Everton          16   23   +8      -1.78    37.88     3.74    58.10     6.86    15.40     0.41     2.31     7.64    16.52    40.49     0.07R    0.00  
Stoke            16   23   -1       1.91    64.22    -0.09    51.40     6.52    -3.12     0.02     0.14     0.72     2.20     9.28     0.70R    0.01  
Southampton      16   21   +2      -3.82    25.15    -2.22    53.34     6.74     5.22     0.05     0.41     1.71     4.75    16.52     0.40R    0.00  
West_Brom        16   20   -5       2.23    66.70     1.01    46.65     6.57   -10.42     0.00     0.01     0.11     0.41     2.36     4.63R    0.17  
Bournemouth      16   16  -11      -0.24    49.66    -0.70    37.64     6.58   -26.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.10    37.80R    5.33  
Newcastle        16   16  -13       0.51    55.43    -2.06    38.64     6.43   -25.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.12    31.99R    4.26  
Chelsea          16   15   -8     -12.08     1.55   -15.77    52.57     6.78     3.12     0.01     0.28     1.25     3.54    13.83     0.68R    0.02  
Swansea          16   14   -9      -5.05    18.37    -4.52    40.81     6.64   -14.08     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.04     0.37    19.00R    1.85  
Norwich          16   14  -10      -3.06    30.08    -1.80    37.14     6.64   -21.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.08    39.47R    6.49  
Sunderland       16   12  -13      -4.18    21.98    -4.02    31.94     6.15   -29.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    72.33R   20.78  
Aston_Villa      16    6  -17      -7.65     5.13    -3.77    26.34     6.15   -32.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    91.27R   61.06  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 14 December 2015, Blackburn 0 0 Nott'm_Forest; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Brighton        20   42  +11      11.94    96.99     6.88    79.98     7.38    14.91    10.73    25.85    84.02    37.99P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough   20   40  +17       4.70    77.25     5.59    84.67     7.33    29.80    29.33    53.26    95.19    66.48P    0.00     0.00  
Hull            20   38  +16       2.72    66.02     4.77    84.10     7.42    30.99    27.34    50.80    94.46    65.23P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           20   38  +15       3.22    69.03     4.12    83.93     7.41    30.42    26.11    49.84    94.23    63.75P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley         20   35   +7       2.79    66.27     0.00    75.60     7.59    14.46     4.47    12.27    66.79    26.43P    0.00R    0.00  
Ipswich         20   31   +2       1.29    58.09    -1.55    68.82     7.54     5.41     0.64     2.29    31.05     8.34P    0.05R    0.00  
Cardiff         20   30   +4       2.08    63.06     2.82    66.74     7.51     6.00     0.31     1.27    22.87     5.60P    0.14R    0.01  
Sheff_Wed       20   30   +3       3.44    70.92     3.68    64.89     7.37     2.49     0.14     0.60    15.75     3.32P    0.22R    0.01  
Birmingham      20   29   +3       2.54    66.00     4.12    63.29     7.47     1.48     0.10     0.43    11.72     2.39P    0.48R    0.02  
Brentford       20   29   +1       0.26    51.86    -1.01    66.50     7.63     3.96     0.33     1.24    21.98     5.53P    0.18R    0.01  
Blackburn       21   28   +4      -2.69    34.46     0.92    63.47     7.25     6.25     0.09     0.40    11.88     2.94P    0.35R    0.02  
Reading         20   27   +3       0.03    50.51     3.39    60.94     7.40     0.92     0.04     0.17     6.99     1.39P    1.01R    0.07  
QPR             20   27   -1      -2.22    37.19    -3.74    65.10     7.83     2.96     0.24     0.92    17.89     4.81P    0.37R    0.01  
Wolverhampton   20   25   +0      -4.21    26.12    -2.87    63.58     7.53     4.57     0.08     0.44    12.94     3.23P    0.46R    0.01  
Nott'm_Forest   21   25   +0      -3.36    30.86     0.18    59.86     7.29     1.12     0.02     0.11     5.07     1.13P    1.49R    0.13  
Preston         20   24   +0      -1.80    39.64     1.44    58.48     7.38    -0.63     0.01     0.06     3.72     0.83P    2.39R    0.20  
Fulham          20   23   -2      -2.77    34.32     0.95    55.91     7.65    -6.90     0.01     0.04     2.15     0.37P    5.88R    0.74  
Leeds_United    20   23   -4      -1.24    42.83    -0.01    54.51     7.25    -9.06     0.00     0.01     0.98     0.19P    7.14R    0.83  
Bristol_City    20   19  -13      -3.87    28.42    -6.30    48.36     7.49   -22.66     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.02P   29.36R    6.88  
Huddersfield    20   18  -10      -3.93    27.05    -1.96    47.42     7.28   -19.12     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.01P   32.26R    7.88  
Charlton        20   17  -15      -4.42    23.77    -6.72    45.33     7.17   -24.95     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   44.66R   12.92  
MK_Dons         20   16  -12      -6.96    13.50    -5.72    45.77     7.42   -20.09     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P   40.88R   11.14  
Rotherham       20   15  -14      -4.60    22.74    -2.04    40.67     7.03   -29.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   69.69R   32.64  
Bolton          20   12  -15      -9.55     5.22    -6.95    41.66     7.28   -23.23     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    62.99R   26.48  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 13 December 2015, Sheff_Utd 1 0 Coventry; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Burton_Albion    21   44  +11      13.86    97.90     8.81    80.01     7.52    13.73    20.42    37.40    81.30    45.97P    0.00     0.00  
Coventry         21   39  +16       6.20    81.64     9.96    78.93     7.56    24.50    18.34    34.64    79.60    45.69P    0.01R    0.00  
Walsall          20   39  +16       6.94    85.46     9.16    80.52     7.62    24.83    24.72    42.95    84.28    53.65P    0.01R    0.00  
Gillingham       21   38  +11       6.14    81.23     6.55    75.13     7.62    15.24     8.14    18.13    61.01    27.31P    0.05R    0.00  
Peterborough     21   34  +15      -0.97    44.16     5.22    75.70     7.59    26.54     9.75    21.71    66.72    34.55P    0.07R    0.00  
Wigan            21   34   +9      -2.46    35.56    -2.33    76.92     7.54    21.62    12.01    25.56    71.24    41.55P    0.02R    0.00  
Bury             21   33   +2       6.00    80.74     5.02    65.07     7.59    -1.53     0.47     1.58    14.78     4.05P    2.67R    0.12  
Millwall         20   31   +3       0.86    55.17    -1.09    69.75     7.96     7.59     2.58     6.62    33.96    13.50P    0.74R    0.02  
Southend         20   31   +3       5.13    78.36     5.01    65.56     7.70     1.70     0.66     2.00    16.62     4.92P    2.33R    0.11  
Bradford         20   31   +2       3.18    69.04     1.21    67.20     7.51     3.20     0.86     2.76    21.52     6.91P    1.22R    0.03  
Sheff_Utd        21   30   +3      -3.09    32.35    -3.39    68.35     7.51     9.12     1.31     3.76    27.64    10.40P    0.81R    0.03  
Port_Vale        21   30   +3       1.31    57.92     3.15    63.03     7.36     1.06     0.21     0.79     9.61     2.54P    3.83R    0.18  
Rochdale         21   27   +0      -1.62    41.01     0.43    63.18     7.51     2.77     0.22     0.82    10.28     2.98P    4.17R    0.23  
Scunthorpe       21   27   -3       0.29    52.41     0.44    58.89     7.48    -6.88     0.04     0.20     3.53     0.89P   12.05R    0.90  
Doncaster        21   27   -5      -1.21    43.22    -4.12    60.14     7.45    -6.53     0.06     0.30     4.59     1.19P    8.95R    0.55  
Swindon          21   25   -4      -6.59    16.80    -8.21    62.09     7.58     0.05     0.13     0.58     8.30     2.62P    5.68R    0.30  
Chesterfield     21   23  -11      -4.62    25.00    -9.10    55.50     7.42   -14.09     0.01     0.05     1.24     0.31P   23.83R    2.52  
Shrewsbury       21   22   -5      -5.18    22.68    -2.63    54.65     7.66    -7.43     0.02     0.06     1.22     0.33P   26.48R    3.53  
Blackpool        21   22  -11      -2.97    33.51    -5.68    51.95     7.41   -17.13     0.00     0.02     0.39     0.09P   41.40R    6.92  
Fleetwood_Town   20   21   -2      -4.33    25.50     1.16    54.45     7.59    -5.23     0.02     0.05     1.07     0.28P   27.08R    3.71  
Barnsley         21   21   -8      -7.23    14.30    -6.80    54.50     7.46    -9.46     0.01     0.01     0.93     0.22P   26.95R    3.50  
Colchester       21   20  -20      -1.78    40.53    -6.90    45.62     7.27   -35.75     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   75.51R   28.90  
Oldham           20   19  -10      -4.46    24.72    -3.90    49.42     7.44   -18.02     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.03P   54.38R   12.38  
Crewe            21   19  -15      -1.58    41.42    -1.98    43.97     6.96   -29.90     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    81.76R   36.06  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 12 December 2015, AFC_Wimbledon 1 2 Stevenage; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Northampton          21   43  +11      10.98    94.39     6.23    81.37     7.61    17.11    23.80    55.94    87.89    62.58P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           21   41  +15       7.67    87.43     8.33    80.14     7.51    22.16    19.36    51.07    85.42    59.63P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth             21   40  +13       6.29    82.33     5.73    80.87     7.39    22.56    21.94    54.74    88.04    63.71P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           21   37  +19       2.28    62.82    10.09    77.01     7.55    27.53    11.34    36.71    76.00    47.77P    0.00     0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   19   35  +12       7.95    88.61    10.73    74.21     8.11    15.06     6.62    23.81    60.19    31.08P    0.00R    0.00  
Carlisle             21   34   +2       5.62    79.18     3.26    67.41     7.67    -0.20     0.89     5.32    26.35     9.23P    0.03R    0.00  
Mansfield            21   33  +10       5.26    78.64    11.36    66.21     7.37     8.59     0.53     3.74    21.65     7.36P    0.03R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       21   33   +5       3.87    71.59     4.30    68.06     7.61     6.37     1.01     6.15    29.44    11.50P    0.03R    0.00  
Leyton_Orient        21   32   +5      -5.05    23.09    -7.59    75.95     7.68    19.75     8.83    30.81    70.06    44.71P    0.00R    0.00  
Wycombe              19   30   +5       0.21    51.23    -0.52    71.21     7.91    11.24     2.98    13.61    45.42    22.45P    0.00R    0.00  
Exeter               20   30   +1       2.28    63.80     0.78    65.38     7.75     0.35     0.55     3.28    19.11     6.56P    0.10R    0.01  
Cambridge_Utd        21   29   +0       2.35    64.22     3.63    61.53     7.51    -3.11     0.10     0.93     8.32     2.26P    0.33R    0.07  
AFC_Wimbledon        21   28   -1       1.07    56.79     1.92    60.24     7.45    -4.22     0.06     0.58     6.19     1.71P    0.47R    0.09  
Notts_County         20   28   -2      -2.70    34.76    -6.86    68.16     8.06     4.75     1.32     7.22    31.19    13.92P    0.05R    0.00  
Crawley_Town         21   28   -6      -1.89    39.83    -7.48    64.02     7.79    -3.58     0.29     2.17    14.64     5.21P    0.22R    0.04  
Morecambe            20   27   +0      -0.12    49.72     0.88    63.03     7.83     0.10     0.20     1.94    12.89     4.30P    0.26R    0.05  
Luton                21   26   +3      -5.13    23.12    -0.40    62.61     7.58     6.43     0.16     1.49    11.88     4.27P    0.23R    0.04  
Stevenage            21   25   -8      -3.88    29.07    -7.84    59.26     7.57    -8.33     0.02     0.46     4.75     1.59P    0.85R    0.17  
Barnet               21   22   -9      -1.26    43.81     0.16    50.06     7.49   -19.32     0.00     0.01     0.30     0.07P   10.73R    3.39  
Hartlepool           20   20  -14      -0.62    47.67    -3.59    45.97     7.20   -28.95     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P   24.35R    9.34  
Newport_County       21   19   -9      -5.89    18.92    -2.98    49.53     7.40   -14.90     0.00     0.01     0.21     0.06P   11.27R    3.59  
Dag_&_Red            21   13  -16     -10.73     4.47    -7.90    41.71     7.29   -24.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    44.75R   22.20  
Yeovil               21   12  -15     -14.06     1.50   -10.87    41.69     7.47   -21.83     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.01P   43.92R   22.02  
York                 21   12  -21     -10.63     4.42   -11.36    38.85     7.22   -32.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   62.38R   38.97  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 8 December 2015, Gateshead 0 1 Southport; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Cheltenham       24   50  +31       1.57    57.90     6.74    94.93     6.41    54.23    71.73    99.34    82.50P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     23   46  +17       5.97    80.40     3.96    85.71     7.02    29.55    11.45    86.02    29.92P    0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic   25   43  +10       4.96    74.59     4.55    73.96     6.68    13.11     0.36    26.40     4.79P    0.00     0.00  
Eastleigh        23   43   +9       6.56    81.95     1.61    79.90     7.10    17.26     3.03    59.87    13.53P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          23   42  +25      -2.46    35.29     5.16    85.11     6.76    42.61    11.34    86.32    38.78P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham          23   40  +15       2.45    63.44     5.91    76.27     6.97    22.05     1.02    41.45     9.29P    0.00     0.00  
Braintree_Town   23   40  +10       5.90    80.10     6.10    75.17     6.84    15.35     0.56    32.93     6.58P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City     24   40   +9       5.76    78.86     7.24    72.06     6.87    11.55     0.22    19.01     3.06P    0.00     0.00  
Macclesfield     25   38  +10      -0.79    45.82     3.43    70.63     6.64    15.75     0.06    14.34     3.05P    0.01R    0.00  
Gateshead        24   37   -5       4.09    71.62    -4.63    66.09     6.82    -6.88     0.01     4.20     0.62P    0.06R    0.00  
Woking           24   34   +7      -3.59    31.30    -0.11    67.52     6.83    11.88     0.04     6.97     1.48P    0.03R    0.00  
Tranmere         24   34   +6      -7.32    15.55    -6.65    72.01     6.91    17.68     0.17    20.16     5.96P    0.01R    0.00  
Bromley          23   33   +3       3.19    67.30     6.58    63.34     7.36     0.24     0.01     2.76     0.41P    0.36R    0.02  
Barrow           24   31  -15       6.92    84.14     0.26    53.71     6.70   -27.23     0.00     0.03     0.00P    8.05R    0.96  
Chester          25   30   -8       2.12    62.41     2.52    56.58     6.50   -11.72     0.00     0.08     0.01P    2.77R    0.26  
Guiseley         25   30  -13       3.30    68.16    -0.68    49.31     6.23   -28.14     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.68R    3.45  
Aldershot        24   28  -11      -1.03    44.87    -4.89    56.25     6.71   -14.14     0.00     0.10     0.01P    3.52R    0.38  
Altrincham       23   26  -15       2.85    67.66    -1.61    50.45     6.67   -26.40     0.00     0.01     0.00    17.51R    3.07  
Welling          23   24   -8      -2.17    38.18    -0.08    49.72     6.67   -16.78     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.05R    3.67  
Southport        23   24  -13       0.74    55.71    -0.22    49.33     6.67   -22.40     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.61R    4.45  
Boreham_Wood     24   22   -6      -5.12    24.29     2.27    46.28     6.55   -14.63     0.00     0.00     0.00    34.76R    8.84  
Torquay          23   17  -21     -10.67     5.67   -14.50    46.04     6.90   -25.47     0.00     0.00     0.00    38.38R   11.37  
Halifax          23   17  -23     -10.47     6.34   -15.09    41.56     6.80   -35.98     0.00     0.00     0.00    65.76R   30.81  
Kidderminster    23   14  -14     -13.48     2.03    -7.87    40.72     6.77   -21.47     0.00     0.00     0.00    67.44R   32.72