Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Wednesday 2 December 2015 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 29 November 2015, Liverpool 1 0 Swansea; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Man_City         14   29  +16      -0.48    44.47    -1.75    78.85     6.79    44.21    55.87    79.16    90.60    95.64    99.11     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        14   29   +8       9.07    95.45     7.03    59.49     7.16     3.10     0.61     2.45     6.90    14.62    37.06     0.01R    0.00  
Man_Utd          14   28  +10       3.07    71.71     1.34    72.41     7.05    27.47    15.65    41.15    64.84    79.23    93.34     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          14   27  +12       0.69    54.34     1.22    73.57     6.92    33.94    21.34    50.31    71.89    84.79    95.70     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        14   25  +13       2.35    67.11     7.80    65.73     7.26    25.05     3.57    12.85    27.68    46.11    74.07     0.00R    0.00  
Liverpool        14   23   +3       1.52    61.73    -0.48    63.40     7.30    14.32     1.67     7.12    17.19    31.22    60.74     0.01R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   14   22   +5       4.17    79.55     7.07    52.75     7.12     1.88     0.04     0.26     1.03     2.95    11.53     0.37R    0.01  
West_Ham         14   22   +4       3.06    72.42     4.68    54.50     7.22     3.19     0.07     0.48     1.82     4.83    16.31     0.24R    0.00  
Everton          14   21   +8      -0.45    46.62     4.60    60.46     7.28    18.02     0.72     3.57     9.63    20.00    46.56     0.02R    0.00  
Southampton      14   20   +3      -1.81    36.81    -0.82    56.57     7.16     8.48     0.19     1.13     3.50     8.23    25.06     0.09R    0.00  
Watford          14   19   -1       2.74    70.69     3.89    46.61     7.17    -9.65     0.00     0.03     0.10     0.43     2.48     3.59R    0.18  
Stoke            14   19   -3       0.50    54.78    -2.22    48.39     6.90    -7.84     0.00     0.04     0.24     0.63     3.50     1.45R    0.06  
West_Brom        14   18   -5       2.24    67.86     0.06    46.53     6.94   -11.85     0.00     0.01     0.10     0.37     2.01     3.65R    0.21  
Chelsea          14   15   -6      -9.00     4.30   -13.23    57.91     7.14     9.55     0.25     1.42     4.46    10.80    31.40     0.08R    0.00  
Swansea          14   14   -5      -3.70    24.19    -2.79    43.66     7.04   -10.29     0.00     0.01     0.03     0.12     0.90     7.17R    0.57  
Norwich          14   13   -8      -2.23    34.18    -1.04    38.55     7.11   -20.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.21    24.08R    3.80  
Sunderland       14   12  -10      -2.76    29.90    -3.19    33.88     6.49   -28.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    50.03R   10.42  
Bournemouth      14   10  -13      -3.93    22.46    -3.04    31.39     6.78   -34.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    65.53R   20.95  
Newcastle        14   10  -16      -3.10    27.48    -5.27    32.54     6.63   -34.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    59.18R   16.67  
Aston_Villa      14    5  -15      -7.38     4.61    -3.86    26.84     6.54   -32.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    84.50R   47.10  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 30 November 2015, Bolton 1 1 Brentford; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Brighton        18   38  +10      11.14    96.94     6.54    78.50     7.70    13.68     7.04    18.18    76.85    30.07P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough   18   36  +15       4.39    76.93     4.85    83.58     7.75    28.12    20.98    42.89    92.08    58.04P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           18   36  +15       4.33    76.04     4.60    85.48     7.87    31.70    30.13    53.90    94.70    66.23P    0.00     0.00  
Hull            18   35  +16       3.00    68.40     5.50    85.62     7.84    33.51    30.99    55.11    95.25    68.81P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley         18   34   +9       4.14    74.73     1.43    78.88     8.00    18.65     8.73    21.30    78.46    36.82P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham      18   28   +5       3.83    73.98     5.56    65.56     7.85     4.10     0.23     0.95    18.66     4.09P    0.35R    0.02  
Ipswich         18   28   +3       0.63    54.39    -1.06    69.16     8.03     7.29     0.82     2.86    32.88     9.42P    0.11R    0.01  
Sheff_Wed       18   28   +3       3.79    73.70     3.26    65.02     7.81     1.59     0.16     0.75    16.24     3.59P    0.49R    0.03  
Reading         18   27   +5       2.03    63.27     4.47    64.53     7.90     4.02     0.15     0.72    15.54     3.44P    0.56R    0.03  
Cardiff         18   26   +3       1.28    58.83     2.48    65.33     7.82     4.87     0.20     0.86    17.51     4.15P    0.37R    0.01  
Brentford       18   25   -1      -0.37    47.93    -2.07    65.37     8.04     2.09     0.27     0.95    18.22     4.56P    0.54R    0.06  
QPR             18   23   -2      -3.20    30.74    -4.20    63.06     8.35     0.76     0.13     0.62    13.21     3.53P    1.22R    0.13  
Fulham          18   22   +1      -2.00    37.97     2.41    58.38     8.11    -2.79     0.04     0.14     4.77     0.99P    4.27R    0.51  
Blackburn       18   21   +1      -4.40    23.93    -0.24    61.17     7.94     3.97     0.05     0.27     8.12     2.00P    1.82R    0.20  
Wolverhampton   18   21   -1      -4.84    21.64    -2.89    62.94     7.90     4.43     0.07     0.39    11.68     3.02P    1.00R    0.10  
Nott'm_Forest   18   20   -3      -3.70    27.36    -1.88    57.66     7.88    -3.89     0.01     0.08     3.46     0.78P    4.53R    0.61  
Leeds_United    18   19   -5      -2.60    33.94    -0.95    52.49     7.62   -11.23     0.00     0.01     0.65     0.14P   14.37R    2.65  
Preston         18   18   -3      -4.23    24.37    -0.29    53.18     7.82    -6.42     0.00     0.01     1.02     0.20P   12.37R    2.33  
MK_Dons         18   16   -9      -5.45    18.66    -4.40    49.07     8.00   -16.61     0.00     0.00     0.30     0.06P   28.26R    7.65  
Bristol_City    18   16  -12      -4.57    23.03    -5.88    48.13     8.02   -21.82     0.00     0.00     0.23     0.03P   33.95R   10.25  
Charlton        18   16  -14      -3.41    28.51    -6.58    46.73     7.47   -24.39     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.00P   39.87R   12.38  
Huddersfield    18   15  -11      -4.09    24.58    -2.61    46.50     7.70   -21.22     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.01P   40.78R   13.28  
Rotherham       18   15  -12      -3.00    31.15    -1.62    42.83     7.43   -28.20     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    60.69R   27.33  
Bolton          18   12  -13      -7.90     7.97    -6.41    43.67     7.53   -22.21     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.01P   54.42R   22.41  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 1 December 2015, Burton_Albion 2 1 Millwall; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Burton_Albion    20   41   +8      13.10    97.61     7.03    76.89     7.72     8.57     9.54    20.56    66.46    29.13P    0.02R    0.00  
Coventry         20   39  +17       7.16    85.77    10.31    80.52     7.79    25.87    21.44    38.99    83.23    49.77P    0.01R    0.00  
Walsall          20   39  +16       7.01    85.90     9.24    80.51     7.64    24.77    20.61    38.42    83.53    50.00P    0.01R    0.00  
Gillingham       20   38  +14       6.71    84.20     8.24    78.12     7.86    20.79    13.63    27.65    73.84    38.09P    0.02R    0.00  
Wigan            20   34  +10      -1.12    42.70    -1.40    79.82     7.73    24.86    18.81    35.63    81.33    51.74P    0.00R    0.00  
Peterborough     20   33  +15      -0.30    48.05     5.69    76.89     7.76    27.89    11.04    23.61    70.43    37.39P    0.02R    0.00  
Millwall         20   31   +3       0.87    55.21    -1.10    69.56     7.95     7.28     1.91     5.16    31.87    11.80P    0.69R    0.03  
Southend         20   31   +3       5.30    78.97     5.27    65.40     7.70     1.42     0.44     1.49    15.40     4.22P    2.21R    0.08  
Bradford         20   31   +2       3.31    69.68     1.40    67.18     7.53     3.07     0.72     2.29    20.61     6.28P    1.12R    0.03  
Bury             20   30   +1       4.58    75.61     4.50    63.50     7.86    -2.63     0.32     1.02    10.90     2.84P    4.18R    0.23  
Port_Vale        20   29   +3       1.66    60.46     3.17    63.87     7.61     1.68     0.30     0.99    11.53     3.19P    3.12R    0.16  
Sheff_Utd        20   27   +2      -4.31    25.93    -3.75    66.57     7.71     7.85     0.76     2.32    20.01     7.15P    1.39R    0.06  
Rochdale         20   27   +1      -0.62    46.70     0.81    64.40     7.69     3.38     0.29     1.04    13.05     3.79P    2.91R    0.18  
Scunthorpe       20   26   -3       0.60    54.66     0.42    58.92     7.55    -7.48     0.03     0.15     3.46     0.72P   11.39R    0.98  
Doncaster        20   24   -6      -2.19    37.08    -4.13    58.85     7.62    -6.99     0.04     0.16     3.37     0.86P   11.93R    1.12  
Chesterfield     20   23  -10      -3.60    29.93    -8.59    57.11     7.69   -12.87     0.02     0.08     2.16     0.50P   17.34R    1.94  
Swindon          20   22   -5      -7.99    11.45    -8.82    60.55     7.76    -0.85     0.08     0.35     5.69     1.79P    7.87R    0.64  
Fleetwood_Town   20   21   -2      -4.26    26.02     1.29    54.42     7.55    -5.31     0.00     0.03     0.98     0.22P   25.50R    3.76  
Shrewsbury       20   21   -5      -5.21    21.80    -3.17    54.34     7.83    -8.69     0.00     0.03     1.18     0.31P   27.21R    4.25  
Colchester       20   20  -19      -0.87    45.85    -6.74    47.21     7.52   -34.37     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P   66.02R   22.43  
Oldham           20   19  -10      -4.42    24.99    -3.75    49.37     7.41   -18.19     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.03P   52.73R   12.57  
Blackpool        20   19  -12      -4.76    23.66    -6.75    49.11     7.53   -20.00     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.03P   54.42R   14.01  
Crewe            20   19  -14      -0.80    46.31    -1.94    44.97     7.10   -29.37     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   76.03R   31.37  
Barnsley         20   18   -9      -8.49     9.48    -7.21    52.76     7.64   -10.69     0.00     0.01     0.59     0.14P   33.84R    6.18  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 1 December 2015, Bristol_Rovers 3 0 Wycombe; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Oxford_Utd           20   40  +15       8.10    89.08     8.42    81.27     7.69    23.33    22.61    56.73    88.69    65.00P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth             20   40  +14       7.56    87.64     6.59    83.32     7.56    25.11    31.85    67.12    93.37    74.55P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton          20   40  +10       9.68    92.59     5.69    79.41     7.83    15.56    15.48    45.70    82.36    53.73P    0.00     0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   19   35  +12       7.90    88.72    10.65    74.25     8.13    15.14     6.21    23.92    61.89    31.71P    0.00R    0.00  
Portsmouth           20   34  +15       2.13    62.52     8.29    74.97     7.77    22.88     7.05    27.50    67.52    38.32P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle             20   33   +2       5.88    80.93     3.08    67.08     7.91    -1.35     0.89     5.46    26.42     9.19P    0.06R    0.01  
Mansfield            20   32  +10       5.49    80.17    11.15    66.08     7.62     7.90     0.55     4.04    23.22     7.77P    0.05R    0.00  
Leyton_Orient        20   31   +5      -4.25    26.20    -7.04    76.63     7.87    20.19     9.74    34.54    73.68    48.12P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              19   30   +5       0.29    51.91    -0.43    71.07     7.86    11.03     2.67    13.04    46.13    22.07P    0.01R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       20   30   +4       2.92    67.08     4.29    66.39     7.84     5.28     0.62     4.44    24.72     9.08P    0.11R    0.02  
Exeter               20   30   +1       2.31    63.62     0.82    65.35     7.78     0.28     0.50     3.35    20.19     6.96P    0.13R    0.03  
AFC_Wimbledon        20   28   +0       2.08    63.00     2.38    61.99     7.64    -2.59     0.15     1.30    10.26     3.06P    0.37R    0.08  
Morecambe            20   27   +0      -0.02    50.26     0.99    62.88     7.86    -0.13     0.23     1.83    13.30     4.26P    0.41R    0.07  
Luton                20   26   +4      -4.01    27.54     0.18    64.34     7.76     8.00     0.33     2.79    18.26     6.87P    0.20R    0.03  
Cambridge_Utd        20   26   -1       0.63    54.48     2.55    59.04     7.68    -5.41     0.04     0.54     5.46     1.55P    1.20R    0.30  
Notts_County         19   25   -3      -3.88    28.12    -7.17    66.78     8.30     4.08     0.86     5.66    27.40    11.99P    0.17R    0.03  
Crawley_Town         20   25   -7      -3.01    33.46    -7.77    62.61     8.02    -4.16     0.19     1.74    12.38     4.49P    0.53R    0.11  
Stevenage            20   22   -9      -5.19    22.27    -8.45    57.28     7.86    -9.88     0.03     0.27     3.62     1.03P    2.39R    0.64  
Barnet               20   21   -9      -1.05    44.76    -0.14    50.19     7.75   -19.48     0.00     0.02     0.49     0.12P   13.49R    4.86  
Hartlepool           19   20  -10      -0.57    47.59    -1.73    47.68     7.44   -24.20     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.02P   20.55R    7.90  
Newport_County       20   19   -8      -4.88    22.82    -2.76    50.47     7.54   -14.26     0.00     0.02     0.44     0.12P   11.24R    3.71  
Dag_&_Red            20   13  -15      -9.79     5.65    -7.66    42.82     7.52   -24.08     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00    43.30R   21.70  
York                 20   12  -20      -9.72     5.57   -11.14    39.97     7.35   -31.87     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    60.64R   36.92  
Yeovil               20   11  -15     -13.57     1.48   -10.79    42.30     7.69   -21.38     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.01P   45.11R   23.59  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 28 November 2015, Aldershot 0 2 Cheltenham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Cheltenham       23   47  +29       1.18    55.82     6.75    93.98     6.63    53.32    67.86    98.96    79.40P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     23   46  +17       5.87    80.07     3.77    85.81     7.05    29.70    13.34    86.21    31.42P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          23   42  +25      -2.42    35.24     5.28    85.09     6.76    42.64    13.16    86.39    39.47P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City     23   40  +11       6.52    82.31     8.22    73.76     7.06    14.12     0.52    27.32     4.76P    0.00     0.00  
Eastleigh        22   40   +8       5.18    76.97     1.05    77.59     7.26    15.14     2.00    46.94     9.91P    0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic   24   40   +7       4.42    73.01     3.17    72.04     6.84     9.72     0.29    18.77     3.32P    0.00     0.00  
Macclesfield     23   38  +13       1.30    57.13     5.35    74.84     6.97    20.96     0.75    34.02     7.54P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham          22   37  +14       1.21    56.77     5.46    74.87     7.22    21.41     1.01    34.56     8.00P    0.00     0.00  
Braintree_Town   22   37   +9       4.30    73.95     5.17    72.60     6.99    13.14     0.36    21.56     4.30P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         23   34   +7      -6.33    18.61    -6.27    74.15     7.16    19.84     0.63    31.00     9.51P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead        22   34   -5       4.02    72.02    -4.37    66.70     7.20    -5.63     0.04     5.83     0.84P    0.08R    0.01  
Bromley          23   33   +3       3.26    67.48     6.72    63.49     7.37     0.45     0.02     3.01     0.44P    0.36R    0.02  
Woking           23   31   +5      -4.45    26.75    -0.92    65.69     7.09     9.54     0.02     4.90     1.01P    0.09R    0.01  
Barrow           24   31  -15       6.92    84.02     0.20    53.67     6.69   -27.33     0.00     0.05     0.00P    7.79R    1.05  
Chester          24   30   -6       2.42    64.28     2.61    57.14     6.67   -11.12     0.00     0.19     0.03P    2.40R    0.21  
Guiseley         24   29  -13       3.56    69.72    -0.76    49.19     6.46   -29.14     0.00     0.01     0.00    21.40R    4.21  
Aldershot        23   28   -8      -0.66    46.83    -3.62    57.99     6.92   -10.45     0.00     0.27     0.03P    2.05R    0.20  
Altrincham       23   26  -15       2.86    67.77    -1.66    50.46     6.62   -26.37     0.00     0.01     0.00    16.49R    3.03  
Welling          23   24   -8      -2.11    38.71     0.10    49.72     6.67   -16.77     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.05R    3.55  
Boreham_Wood     24   22   -6      -4.89    25.25     2.55    46.37     6.59   -14.46     0.00     0.00     0.00    33.30R    9.10  
Southport        21   18  -16      -2.29    36.62    -2.74    43.98     6.90   -28.63     0.00     0.00     0.00    50.02R   18.32  
Torquay          22   17  -20      -9.65     7.26   -13.99    47.19     7.09   -24.86     0.00     0.00     0.00P   31.54R    9.18  
Halifax          22   16  -23      -9.94     6.82   -14.82    42.36     7.02   -35.30     0.00     0.00     0.00    59.89R   27.47  
Kidderminster    22   14  -13     -12.41     2.54    -7.27    42.43     6.95   -19.92     0.00     0.00     0.00    56.55R   23.64