Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 23 October 2015 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 19 October 2015, Swansea 0 1 Stoke; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Man_City          9   21  +16       1.04    58.39     2.51    84.09     7.63    56.81    68.39    88.26    95.78    98.38    99.72     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal           9   19   +9       2.02    67.84     1.90    75.41     8.06    35.57    17.50    52.11    74.74    86.48    96.15     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd           9   19   +7       2.70    73.98     0.89    72.58     8.18    28.29    10.28    35.39    61.26    77.34    92.21     0.00R    0.00  
West_Ham          9   17   +8       3.99    83.51     7.29    57.46     8.41     8.68     0.23     1.84     6.16    13.85    34.67     0.26R    0.01  
Leicester         9   16   +2       4.04    83.33     2.87    51.21     8.27    -7.07     0.03     0.32     1.29     3.48    12.44     2.03R    0.16  
Crystal_Palace    9   15   +2       4.30    86.01     4.71    51.37     8.11    -3.21     0.01     0.29     1.19     3.27    12.34     1.71R    0.10  
Tottenham         9   14   +4       0.74    57.34     2.79    59.60     8.47    12.69     0.44     3.28     9.46    19.91    45.00     0.22R    0.01  
Southampton       9   13   +3      -1.50    35.76    -0.27    57.94     8.30    10.49     0.29     2.07     6.39    14.54    37.30     0.23R    0.01  
Everton           9   13   +1       0.92    59.28     1.48    58.57     8.38     9.42     0.26     2.31     7.21    15.95    39.68     0.27R    0.02  
Liverpool         9   13   -2      -0.72    43.13    -4.17    58.19     8.41     5.79     0.28     2.04     6.78    14.91    37.22     0.32R    0.02  
Stoke             9   12   -1      -0.22    48.68    -0.86    48.70     8.07    -5.65     0.00     0.13     0.55     1.62     7.09     3.70R    0.31  
Chelsea           9   11   -3      -5.20    10.27    -8.91    65.98     8.25    21.23     2.27    11.80    28.41    47.74    74.27     0.02R    0.00  
West_Brom         9   11   -4       0.69    58.27    -0.87    44.05     7.97   -14.51     0.00     0.03     0.13     0.44     2.34    10.83R    1.32  
Swansea           9   10   -1      -1.69    34.84     0.02    48.19     8.30    -4.00     0.00     0.12     0.54     1.68     6.83     4.47R    0.45  
Watford           9   10   -4       0.66    58.08     1.12    41.09     8.24   -18.08     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.22     1.28    20.29R    3.83  
Norwich           9    9   -6      -1.36    38.66    -2.54    37.68     8.18   -26.89     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.08     0.50    35.19R    8.22  
Bournemouth       9    8   -6      -1.93    32.94    -1.11    35.91     8.18   -27.27     0.00     0.01     0.01     0.04     0.34    43.54R   11.60  
Newcastle         9    6   -7      -2.20    29.32     0.66    38.07     8.18   -20.37     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.07     0.59    31.99R    7.57  
Aston_Villa       9    4   -7      -4.87     9.39    -1.56    31.13     7.57   -27.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04    66.48R   25.98  
Sunderland        9    3  -11      -6.06     4.94    -5.97    28.58     7.34   -34.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    78.45R   40.40  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Friday 23 October 2015, Rotherham 1 2 Sheff_Wed; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Brighton        12   28   +8      10.01    98.18     5.58    76.97     8.95    12.14    12.21    25.05    67.48    33.78P    0.04R    0.00  
Birmingham      12   24   +8       7.04    92.39     7.16    70.36     9.12     7.99     3.58     9.03    40.00    15.10P    0.37R    0.02  
Reading         12   22  +10       4.68    83.24     8.61    70.61     9.22    13.39     4.10    10.11    42.24    17.04P    0.38R    0.04  
Hull            12   22   +9       1.17    58.92     2.65    80.47     9.28    26.15    24.62    42.06    80.60    54.57P    0.02R    0.00  
Burnley         12   22   +5       2.30    67.88     0.31    75.52     9.53    15.44    11.08    22.40    61.99    33.37P    0.14R    0.00  
Middlesbrough   12   21   +9       0.32    52.05     2.80    78.11     9.03    24.20    16.35    31.78    74.00    45.14P    0.02R    0.00  
Derby           12   21   +7       0.76    55.91     1.36    79.24     9.27    24.76    20.24    36.70    76.95    48.68P    0.03R    0.00  
Cardiff         12   20   +4       3.12    74.28     3.16    67.96     9.18     6.38     2.19     5.99    30.51    11.38P    0.88R    0.08  
Sheff_Wed       13   20   +2       3.00    72.74     2.89    63.51     8.77     0.19     0.60     1.86    15.16     4.44P    2.14R    0.26  
QPR             12   16   -3      -1.71    36.88    -4.86    64.02     9.96    -1.06     1.25     3.44    19.57     7.19P    3.70R    0.60  
Ipswich         12   16   -5      -0.56    45.99    -5.25    63.68     9.44    -3.40     0.83     2.42    17.30     5.51P    3.24R    0.46  
Wolverhampton   12   15   +0      -2.75    29.07    -1.97    66.15     9.38     6.95     1.51     4.31    25.25     9.63P    1.61R    0.21  
Fulham          12   14   +1      -1.70    37.05     2.28    58.30     9.44    -3.20     0.24     0.80     7.16     1.97P    9.26R    1.77  
Huddersfield    12   14   -2      -0.18    49.67     1.36    54.13     9.01   -11.35     0.06     0.18     2.48     0.61P   18.12R    4.00  
Brentford       12   14   -4      -2.42    31.72    -3.86    61.39     9.49    -2.83     0.50     1.56    12.32     3.87P    5.19R    0.85  
Nott'm_Forest   12   13   -3      -2.91    28.01    -2.32    58.21     9.32    -4.91     0.17     0.58     6.62     1.93P    9.15R    1.68  
Blackburn       12   12   -1      -4.73    16.73    -1.47    60.19     9.20     1.69     0.29     1.01     9.75     3.08P    5.68R    0.96  
Leeds_United    12   12   -5      -1.74    36.59    -1.16    53.23     8.96   -12.22     0.03     0.13     1.87     0.46P   20.74R    4.91  
Preston         12   11   -3      -3.67    22.55    -0.80    53.42     9.31    -8.26     0.05     0.20     2.57     0.72P   20.32R    4.64  
MK_Dons         12   11   -4      -4.40    18.83    -2.41    53.45     9.50   -10.22     0.04     0.19     2.79     0.73P   20.58R    5.09  
Bristol_City    12   10   -7      -4.43    18.86    -3.79    51.53     9.84   -15.63     0.04     0.18     2.11     0.56P   28.72R    8.88  
Charlton        12   10   -7      -3.77    21.38    -3.24    49.27     8.87   -16.95     0.00     0.01     0.68     0.12P   35.26R   10.37  
Rotherham       13    9   -9      -4.18    19.68    -1.88    41.18     8.36   -29.40     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P   71.93R   40.46  
Bolton          12    8  -10      -5.11    13.76    -5.13    47.76     8.99   -19.85     0.00     0.01     0.54     0.12P   42.50R   14.71  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 20 October 2015, Barnsley 0 2 Walsall; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Gillingham       14   30  +14       7.88    92.60     9.64    80.02     9.20    23.23    24.53    42.42    80.53    51.10P    0.09R    0.00  
Walsall          14   28  +13       6.00    87.12     8.88    78.12     8.89    22.20    17.73    33.65    75.78    44.94P    0.10R    0.00  
Burton_Albion    14   26   +0       8.55    94.39     2.30    65.65     8.97    -5.75     1.40     3.76    22.67     6.99P    4.71R    0.27  
Coventry         13   24  +10       4.30    79.59     7.23    73.92     9.32    16.92     9.15    19.36    58.08    28.71P    0.57R    0.02  
Sheff_Utd        14   24   +6       0.88    55.97     0.18    76.02     9.01    18.15    12.53    25.80    67.37    37.62P    0.26R    0.01  
Bury             14   24   +5       5.63    84.64     6.39    66.70     9.27     2.80     1.98     5.27    27.70     9.63P    4.01R    0.29  
Wigan            14   23   +7      -1.75    36.89    -1.42    79.41     9.18    25.62    22.55    40.44    79.40    54.01P    0.13R    0.01  
Southend         14   21   -1       3.94    77.53     1.75    59.29     8.76    -8.54     0.23     0.79     7.54     2.13P   15.86R    1.83  
Chesterfield     14   20   +1      -0.67    45.46    -1.22    68.35     9.08     7.59     2.53     6.90    34.05    13.72P    2.62R    0.19  
Rochdale         14   19   +2      -0.82    44.46     1.19    65.22     9.10     5.25     1.37     3.70    23.28     8.23P    5.24R    0.51  
Bradford         13   19   -2       1.67    63.05    -1.33    63.47     8.96    -2.96     0.77     2.34    16.53     5.42P    7.33R    0.70  
Colchester       14   19   -7       2.74    70.28    -1.71    56.90     8.89   -17.24     0.07     0.37     4.69     1.15P   24.53R    3.99  
Peterborough     14   18   +2      -2.63    31.80    -0.14    66.97     9.17     9.46     1.98     5.72    29.82    11.91P    3.75R    0.36  
Millwall         13   18   -2      -0.62    45.91    -3.03    65.85     9.73     1.70     1.98     5.19    26.19    10.29P    5.86R    0.57  
Port_Vale        14   17   +0      -1.25    41.51     1.41    58.61     8.83    -3.54     0.18     0.64     7.12     2.00P   17.45R    2.19  
Scunthorpe       14   17   -2      -1.04    42.95    -0.03    57.00     8.88    -8.41     0.09     0.35     5.23     1.32P   23.14R    3.42  
Oldham           14   15   -5      -1.84    37.23    -1.34    54.79     8.83   -11.35     0.06     0.24     3.10     0.85P   31.18R    5.98  
Shrewsbury       14   14   -4      -4.73    19.39    -3.36    54.00     9.15    -9.80     0.09     0.28     3.08     0.93P   34.80R    7.13  
Barnsley         13   14   -4      -4.36    20.12    -4.74    59.54     9.32    -3.86     0.36     1.13     9.58     3.18P   16.31R    2.31  
Doncaster        13   14   -5      -3.09    27.51    -3.96    58.16     9.07    -6.42     0.16     0.57     6.83     2.10P   19.55R    3.00  
Blackpool        13   13   -8      -2.66    31.08    -4.86    53.98     9.19   -14.04     0.05     0.23     2.85     0.84P   35.89R    8.05  
Fleetwood_Town   14   12   -5      -5.09    16.85    -1.76    51.17     8.81   -12.02     0.01     0.06     1.26     0.29P   46.33R   11.90  
Swindon          14   12   -6      -9.30     4.18    -9.13    58.07     9.14    -2.99     0.19     0.78     7.24     2.63P   19.46R    2.85  
Crewe            14   10   -9      -4.04    21.46    -0.95    43.00     8.34   -26.00     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.01P   80.82R   44.45  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 21 October 2015, Exeter 1 0 Cambridge_Utd; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Plymouth             14   29  +11       6.51    89.02     6.10    80.96     8.84    22.77    23.33    56.17    86.05    64.65P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           14   27  +10       5.30    83.86     6.21    75.61     8.90    16.89     9.59    32.61    68.50    41.47P    0.03R    0.00  
Oxford_Utd           14   27   +9       6.38    88.35     6.83    77.46     8.93    18.74    12.92    40.24    75.61    49.10P    0.01R    0.00  
Mansfield            14   25  +11       6.39    88.42    11.69    67.26     8.82     8.73     1.58     8.80    33.08    13.51P    0.37R    0.10  
Northampton          14   24   +4       3.90    76.11     2.71    69.64     9.10     6.38     2.83    13.58    42.34    19.86P    0.23R    0.07  
Leyton_Orient        14   23   +6      -3.03    28.32    -4.64    82.61     9.17    30.52    32.85    64.49    88.91    73.26P    0.00R    0.00  
Morecambe            14   23   +5       2.99    70.74     3.96    68.95     9.20     7.71     2.79    12.45    40.26    18.66P    0.37R    0.08  
Accrington_Stanley   14   22   +4       4.05    77.48     6.04    64.72     9.11     1.73     0.96     5.42    23.68     9.02P    1.12R    0.32  
Carlisle             14   22   +0       3.22    72.22     1.14    62.13     9.16    -6.75     0.50     3.32    15.99     5.70P    2.02R    0.66  
Wycombe              13   21   +5       0.25    51.90     0.74    72.18     9.17    13.90     5.22    21.02    54.50    30.32P    0.08R    0.02  
Exeter               14   21   +0       1.57    61.76    -0.09    63.54     8.98    -2.37     0.59     4.02    19.58     7.42P    1.36R    0.37  
Bristol_Rovers       13   20   +3       3.02    72.55     3.97    65.77     9.43     4.20     1.23     7.20    27.98    11.87P    0.88R    0.27  
Luton                14   19   +5      -2.12    35.13     2.25    68.31     9.10    13.18     2.23    11.21    38.66    18.78P    0.39R    0.10  
AFC_Wimbledon        14   19   -3       1.63    62.88    -0.14    59.05     8.92    -9.19     0.16     1.31     8.94     2.72P    4.39R    1.54  
Notts_County         14   18   -3      -3.16    28.68    -5.87    68.74     9.43     7.31     2.54    12.50    39.87    20.57P    0.43R    0.12  
Cambridge_Utd        14   17   -3      -0.18    49.60     0.25    55.61     8.85   -11.25     0.06     0.60     4.56     1.37P    8.19R    3.04  
Hartlepool           14   17   -6       1.23    60.35    -0.93    50.40     8.42   -21.69     0.00     0.09     1.10     0.24P   20.81R    9.00  
Crawley_Town         14   15   -7      -4.25    22.51    -7.06    62.05     9.50    -2.38     0.46     3.31    16.85     6.90P    2.79R    1.00  
Barnet               14   14   -6      -1.71    38.70    -0.31    49.52     9.02   -19.50     0.01     0.10     1.26     0.36P   25.30R   12.73  
Stevenage            14   14   -6      -5.79    14.25    -6.80    58.52     9.13    -5.19     0.13     1.29     8.85     3.24P    4.84R    1.71  
York                 14   12   -5      -6.14    11.98    -3.57    50.98     8.61   -12.01     0.01     0.10     1.35     0.38P   17.77R    7.76  
Dag_&_Red            14    9  -10      -7.83     6.23    -6.10    46.56     8.80   -20.13     0.01     0.03     0.49     0.10P   36.02R   19.20  
Yeovil               14    9  -10      -9.11     4.16    -8.49    50.00     9.17   -14.13     0.00     0.13     1.42     0.46P   22.87R   11.32  
Newport_County       14    9  -14      -6.12    11.32    -7.90    43.83     8.49   -27.44     0.00     0.01     0.16     0.03P   49.74R   30.60  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 17 October 2015, Aldershot 1 1 Bromley; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Forest_Green     18   35  +12       4.32    75.79     2.75    82.75     8.00    26.37    16.58    73.92    29.61P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham       18   34  +17       0.15    50.39     2.98    87.56     7.87    40.38    39.62    89.84    56.12P    0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic   18   33   +9       5.25    80.02     4.49    74.24     8.11    13.14     2.71    33.03     8.05P    0.01R    0.00  
Grimsby          18   30  +20      -4.63    21.60     4.71    82.39     7.74    41.46    16.68    74.91    36.73P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         18   30  +11      -3.51    27.77    -2.56    82.35     8.10    32.09    16.03    73.25    35.09P    0.00     0.00  
Bromley          18   30   +9       5.11    78.52     9.24    71.36     8.80    13.03     1.75    24.21     5.29P    0.06R    0.00  
Lincoln_City     17   29   +8       4.88    79.28     6.95    70.55     8.32    10.27     1.14    19.74     4.01P    0.05R    0.00  
Braintree_Town   18   29   +5       3.32    71.00     3.35    69.46     7.87     8.28     0.50    14.57     3.11P    0.04R    0.01  
Wrexham          18   28   +7       0.67    54.46     3.08    70.92     8.09    13.69     1.03    20.75     5.03P    0.02R    0.00  
Eastleigh        17   28   +3       2.14    63.59    -0.69    72.97     8.46    10.88     2.13    28.58     6.78P    0.02R    0.00  
Gateshead        18   28   +0       2.59    66.33    -0.85    68.54     8.11     3.06     0.47    12.56     2.47P    0.06R    0.00  
Aldershot        18   27   -2       3.36    71.32    -0.31    65.01     8.04    -2.79     0.16     5.75     1.00P    0.34R    0.03  
Macclesfield     18   26   +5      -1.14    42.87     1.47    68.03     7.96    10.50     0.45    11.91     2.88P    0.10R    0.01  
Chester          18   25   -5       4.48    77.63     1.96    58.38     7.88   -13.50     0.01     0.94     0.12P    2.65R    0.23  
Barrow           18   25  -11       6.79    87.21    -0.21    52.97     7.97   -27.59     0.00     0.23     0.02P   11.03R    1.51  
Woking           17   24   +6      -2.89    31.57     0.58    68.78     8.40    13.40     0.75    15.40     3.64P    0.12R    0.01  
Welling          18   22   -3       0.60    54.90     1.81    54.37     7.60   -12.09     0.00     0.23     0.03P    6.35R    0.75  
Guiseley         18   20  -10       1.07    58.25    -1.19    45.36     7.61   -30.95     0.00     0.01     0.00    38.78R   10.16  
Altrincham       18   19  -13       0.94    57.91    -2.41    47.98     7.57   -28.40     0.00     0.02     0.00    25.62R    5.37  
Boreham_Wood     18   16   -5      -3.72    27.91     2.42    47.69     8.00   -14.97     0.00     0.04     0.00P   26.14R    6.06  
Torquay          18   15  -14      -7.84     9.66   -10.66    52.35     8.05   -16.19     0.00     0.13     0.02P   11.60R    1.91  
Southport        17   14  -12      -2.95    30.68    -2.09    43.87     7.75   -27.46     0.00     0.00     0.00    45.54R   14.01  
Halifax          18   10  -24     -10.64     3.19   -16.67    39.34     7.71   -40.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    69.49R   33.90  
Kidderminster    18    8  -13     -13.58     0.72    -8.16    40.31     7.76   -22.59     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.00R   26.06