Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 22 October 2015 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 19 October 2015, Swansea 0 1 Stoke; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Man_City          9   21  +16       0.99    57.59     2.38    84.21     7.61    57.14    68.93    88.75    95.94    98.50    99.74     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal           9   19   +9       2.03    67.79     1.89    75.39     8.04    35.61    17.47    52.27    75.01    86.63    96.01     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd           9   19   +7       2.80    74.81     1.03    72.49     8.16    28.12     9.99    34.87    60.80    77.00    92.07     0.00R    0.00  
West_Ham          9   17   +8       3.96    83.65     7.23    57.56     8.35     8.81     0.19     1.95     6.28    13.85    34.83     0.25R    0.01  
Leicester         9   16   +2       4.09    83.61     2.90    51.22     8.28    -7.05     0.03     0.30     1.28     3.53    12.40     2.07R    0.14  
Crystal_Palace    9   15   +2       4.36    86.33     4.79    51.19     8.04    -3.49     0.03     0.26     1.11     2.92    11.73     1.75R    0.10  
Tottenham         9   14   +4       0.62    56.33     2.65    59.82     8.42    12.99     0.51     3.46    10.01    20.49    45.94     0.15R    0.01  
Southampton       9   13   +3      -1.54    35.58    -0.31    58.01     8.34    10.62     0.28     2.06     6.71    14.97    37.55     0.27R    0.01  
Everton           9   13   +1       0.90    59.09     1.44    58.64     8.36     9.56     0.29     2.39     7.28    16.03    39.92     0.31R    0.02  
Liverpool         9   13   -2      -0.68    43.41    -4.11    58.13     8.42     5.71     0.28     1.97     6.43    14.75    36.79     0.28R    0.02  
Stoke             9   12   -1      -0.27    48.04    -0.92    48.80     8.05    -5.52     0.01     0.13     0.56     1.69     7.35     3.45R    0.32  
Chelsea           9   11   -3      -5.18    10.44    -8.86    65.88     8.16    21.09     1.98    11.46    27.88    47.32    74.01     0.02R    0.00  
West_Brom         9   11   -4       0.74    59.04    -0.77    43.93     7.97   -14.75     0.00     0.02     0.09     0.38     2.14    11.33R    1.34  
Swansea           9   10   -1      -1.68    34.83     0.02    48.27     8.22    -3.87     0.00     0.10     0.49     1.52     6.94     4.32R    0.38  
Watford           9   10   -4       0.66    58.01     1.16    40.98     8.21   -18.24     0.00     0.01     0.06     0.23     1.30    20.64R    3.84  
Norwich           9    9   -6      -1.29    39.19    -2.44    37.46     8.17   -27.32     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.08     0.47    35.92R    8.60  
Bournemouth       9    8   -6      -1.95    32.87    -1.17    36.04     8.26   -27.03     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.05     0.31    42.87R   11.40  
Newcastle         9    6   -7      -2.23    28.87     0.61    38.10     8.07   -20.31     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.07     0.49    31.71R    7.49  
Aston_Villa       9    4   -7      -4.91     9.26    -1.58    31.09     7.58   -27.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03    66.34R   26.25  
Sunderland        9    3  -11      -6.07     4.67    -5.95    28.59     7.37   -34.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    78.32R   40.08  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 21 October 2015, Blackburn 0 0 Derby; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Brighton        12   28   +8      10.05    98.26     5.63    76.86     8.90    12.00    12.04    25.01    67.45    34.03P    0.02R    0.00  
Birmingham      12   24   +8       7.02    92.32     7.12    70.46     9.19     8.06     3.98     9.67    40.69    15.76P    0.33R    0.03  
Reading         12   22  +10       4.67    82.91     8.59    70.61     9.21    13.34     4.22    10.14    42.28    16.91P    0.33R    0.03  
Hull            12   22   +9       1.19    59.17     2.70    80.32     9.36    25.97    24.64    41.82    80.63    54.26P    0.03R    0.00  
Burnley         12   22   +5       2.31    67.74     0.32    75.41     9.35    15.26    10.63    21.97    61.98    32.87P    0.09R    0.02  
Middlesbrough   12   21   +9       0.32    52.37     2.79    78.14     9.03    24.23    16.49    31.93    74.41    45.36P    0.02R    0.00  
Derby           12   21   +7       0.76    55.92     1.37    79.20     9.32    24.72    20.21    36.85    77.11    48.98P    0.02R    0.00  
Cardiff         12   20   +4       3.11    74.07     3.13    68.14     9.18     6.64     2.32     6.18    31.86    11.59P    0.78R    0.07  
Sheff_Wed       12   17   +1       1.63    63.96     2.27    61.70     8.95    -1.03     0.38     1.32    11.94     3.45P    4.07R    0.62  
QPR             12   16   -3      -1.79    36.37    -4.96    64.16     9.96    -0.89     1.40     3.58    20.23     7.48P    3.56R    0.60  
Ipswich         12   16   -5      -0.42    47.17    -5.03    63.27     9.33    -4.05     0.74     2.26    15.91     5.12P    3.53R    0.58  
Wolverhampton   12   15   +0      -2.76    29.09    -1.98    66.18     9.34     7.05     1.51     4.35    25.73     9.76P    1.67R    0.25  
Fulham          12   14   +1      -1.71    36.82     2.27    58.42     9.47    -2.97     0.25     0.82     7.64     2.11P    9.59R    1.94  
Huddersfield    12   14   -2      -0.35    48.15     1.13    54.51     9.09   -10.82     0.04     0.18     2.88     0.68P   17.81R    4.32  
Brentford       12   14   -4      -2.37    31.99    -3.78    61.30     9.47    -2.97     0.49     1.54    12.13     3.84P    5.53R    1.02  
Nott'm_Forest   12   13   -3      -2.78    28.47    -2.17    58.08     9.29    -5.18     0.15     0.63     6.71     1.93P    9.63R    1.88  
Blackburn       12   12   -1      -4.60    17.30    -1.29    59.93     9.18     1.35     0.32     1.04     9.45     3.08P    6.18R    1.06  
Leeds_United    12   12   -5      -1.70    37.14    -1.11    53.11     8.92   -12.44     0.03     0.10     1.89     0.39P   21.68R    5.52  
Preston         12   11   -3      -3.73    22.62    -0.87    53.59     9.34    -8.06     0.07     0.21     2.83     0.78P   20.02R    5.05  
MK_Dons         12   11   -4      -4.33    19.33    -2.32    53.29     9.65   -10.43     0.06     0.21     2.90     0.76P   22.13R    6.23  
Bristol_City    12   10   -7      -4.52    18.41    -3.98    51.71     9.72   -15.27     0.03     0.14     2.08     0.55P   28.50R    9.37  
Charlton        12   10   -7      -3.82    20.94    -3.32    49.38     8.77   -16.74     0.00     0.03     0.70     0.18P   35.40R   10.78  
Rotherham       12    9   -8      -3.10    26.29    -1.31    42.72     8.57   -27.96     0.00     0.01     0.09     0.02P   66.26R   34.75  
Bolton          12    8  -10      -5.14    13.41    -5.21    47.78     8.97   -19.83     0.00     0.01     0.47     0.10P   42.81R   15.87  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 20 October 2015, Barnsley 0 2 Walsall; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Gillingham       14   30  +14       7.75    92.23     9.42    80.10     9.21    23.35    24.75    42.65    80.71    51.35P    0.05R    0.00  
Walsall          14   28  +13       5.81    86.29     8.63    78.46     8.83    22.66    18.32    34.80    76.96    46.19P    0.08R    0.00  
Burton_Albion    14   26   +0       8.56    94.31     2.36    65.53     8.98    -5.92     1.43     3.72    22.03     7.07P    4.87R    0.34  
Coventry         13   24  +10       4.46    80.53     7.42    73.58     9.23    16.44     8.58    18.41    56.80    27.48P    0.64R    0.02  
Sheff_Utd        14   24   +6       0.90    56.45     0.17    76.00     9.02    18.12    12.43    25.84    67.09    37.75P    0.29R    0.02  
Bury             14   24   +5       5.45    83.71     6.12    67.17     9.37     3.57     2.25     5.90    29.74    10.51P    3.94R    0.26  
Wigan            14   23   +7      -1.73    37.04    -1.38    79.37     9.12    25.51    22.39    40.20    79.31    53.59P    0.13R    0.01  
Southend         14   21   -1       3.86    76.84     1.63    59.46     8.81    -8.26     0.22     0.78     7.99     2.09P   15.38R    1.85  
Chesterfield     14   20   +1      -0.66    45.32    -1.16    68.17     9.10     7.23     2.47     6.63    33.34    13.51P    2.51R    0.14  
Rochdale         14   19   +2      -0.79    44.73     1.24    65.22     9.03     5.21     1.29     3.71    22.81     8.23P    5.05R    0.37  
Bradford         13   19   -2       1.70    63.19    -1.32    63.50     8.99    -2.87     0.77     2.29    16.82     5.38P    7.26R    0.68  
Colchester       14   19   -7       2.86    71.25    -1.47    56.65     8.92   -17.64     0.09     0.41     4.58     1.05P   25.62R    4.24  
Peterborough     14   18   +2      -2.71    31.45    -0.26    67.12     9.12     9.70     1.98     5.56    30.46    11.99P    3.46R    0.25  
Millwall         13   18   -2      -0.57    46.28    -2.98    65.87     9.63     1.75     1.96     5.07    25.86    10.12P    5.62R    0.50  
Port_Vale        14   17   +0      -1.30    41.27     1.36    58.70     8.77    -3.34     0.18     0.63     7.07     1.97P   16.94R    2.00  
Scunthorpe       14   17   -2      -1.02    43.22     0.02    57.00     9.01    -8.35     0.11     0.43     5.46     1.48P   23.19R    3.48  
Oldham           14   15   -5      -1.68    38.59    -1.13    54.63     8.78   -11.55     0.02     0.15     2.91     0.67P   31.67R    5.95  
Shrewsbury       14   14   -4      -4.83    19.13    -3.52    54.00     9.13    -9.75     0.06     0.25     2.98     0.93P   34.45R    6.94  
Barnsley         13   14   -4      -4.31    20.64    -4.66    59.54     9.20    -3.89     0.30     1.02     9.17     3.08P   15.88R    2.23  
Doncaster        13   14   -5      -3.11    27.27    -4.01    58.37     9.07    -6.09     0.15     0.59     6.96     2.05P   18.69R    2.79  
Blackpool        13   13   -8      -2.53    32.06    -4.68    53.58     9.21   -14.58     0.04     0.16     2.59     0.68P   37.33R    8.58  
Fleetwood_Town   14   12   -5      -5.09    16.51    -1.71    51.06     8.75   -12.21     0.01     0.06     1.27     0.32P   46.82R   11.82  
Swindon          14   12   -6      -9.36     4.17    -9.20    58.14     9.14    -2.94     0.22     0.73     7.04     2.49P   19.22R    2.77  
Crewe            14   10   -9      -3.97    22.04    -0.88    42.94     8.34   -26.15     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P   80.90R   44.75  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 21 October 2015, Exeter 1 0 Cambridge_Utd; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Plymouth             14   29  +11       6.38    88.63     5.95    81.05     8.82    22.84    23.44    56.43    86.61    64.82P    0.00R    0.00  
Portsmouth           14   27  +10       5.38    83.92     6.30    75.49     9.04    16.78     9.73    32.02    68.04    40.73P    0.02R    0.01  
Oxford_Utd           14   27   +9       6.37    88.00     6.83    77.43     8.88    18.70    12.62    39.87    75.95    48.97P    0.02R    0.00  
Mansfield            14   25  +11       6.40    88.48    11.67    67.29     8.88     8.79     1.65     9.07    32.84    13.69P    0.33R    0.07  
Northampton          14   24   +4       3.82    75.82     2.57    69.88     9.13     6.80     2.96    14.07    43.49    20.72P    0.19R    0.05  
Leyton_Orient        14   23   +6      -2.96    28.86    -4.58    82.53     9.20    30.41    32.53    64.02    88.70    72.86P    0.00R    0.00  
Morecambe            14   23   +5       2.95    70.36     3.88    69.11     9.26     7.94     2.96    13.04    40.76    19.29P    0.30R    0.08  
Accrington_Stanley   14   22   +4       4.13    78.10     6.15    64.61     9.11     1.57     0.91     5.40    23.27     8.86P    1.01R    0.28  
Carlisle             14   22   +0       3.15    71.85     1.02    62.36     9.18    -6.44     0.51     3.62    16.79     6.23P    1.91R    0.58  
Wycombe              13   21   +5       0.28    52.07     0.78    72.12     9.15    13.75     5.18    20.82    53.98    29.91P    0.13R    0.02  
Exeter               14   21   +0       1.58    61.81    -0.09    63.49     9.00    -2.44     0.64     3.97    19.47     7.17P    1.32R    0.34  
Bristol_Rovers       13   20   +3       2.96    72.08     3.87    65.86     9.49     4.38     1.37     7.57    28.24    12.45P    0.93R    0.28  
Luton                14   19   +5      -2.00    35.82     2.38    68.21     9.02    12.97     2.06    10.93    38.23    18.35P    0.35R    0.08  
AFC_Wimbledon        14   19   -3       1.69    62.76     0.00    59.03     8.96    -9.27     0.19     1.32     8.89     2.75P    4.32R    1.54  
Notts_County         14   18   -3      -3.15    28.28    -5.89    68.66     9.42     7.17     2.53    12.34    39.21    20.44P    0.47R    0.13  
Cambridge_Utd        14   17   -3      -0.17    49.52     0.31    55.55     8.85   -11.39     0.04     0.47     4.33     1.24P    8.57R    3.30  
Hartlepool           14   17   -6       1.16    59.86    -1.04    50.45     8.38   -21.54     0.01     0.09     1.04     0.25P   20.04R    8.73  
Crawley_Town         14   15   -7      -4.22    22.76    -7.01    61.95     9.62    -2.51     0.50     3.23    16.83     6.84P    3.04R    1.05  
Barnet               14   14   -6      -1.64    39.23    -0.22    49.31     9.11   -19.71     0.00     0.12     1.33     0.33P   26.08R   12.91  
Stevenage            14   14   -6      -5.73    14.48    -6.69    58.37     9.05    -5.39     0.14     1.26     8.43     2.99P    4.71R    1.67  
York                 14   12   -5      -6.26    11.78    -3.72    51.20     8.72   -11.63     0.01     0.16     1.60     0.50P   17.42R    7.33  
Dag_&_Red            14    9  -10      -7.86     6.51    -6.09    46.62     8.89   -20.10     0.00     0.04     0.51     0.14P   35.76R   19.01  
Yeovil               14    9  -10      -9.11     3.95    -8.50    49.95     9.25   -14.17     0.01     0.11     1.34     0.43P   23.55R   11.85  
Newport_County       14    9  -14      -6.12    11.31    -7.88    43.79     8.46   -27.50     0.00     0.01     0.14     0.03P   49.52R   30.70  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 17 October 2015, Aldershot 1 1 Bromley; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Forest_Green     18   35  +12       4.14    74.81     2.50    82.90     8.02    26.60    16.63    74.66    30.11P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham       18   34  +17       0.13    50.16     2.95    87.52     7.88    40.36    39.50    89.66    55.96P    0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic   18   33   +9       5.30    80.25     4.60    74.16     8.10    13.01     2.86    32.61     7.88P    0.01R    0.00  
Grimsby          18   30  +20      -4.66    21.71     4.65    82.50     7.73    41.61    17.32    75.69    37.49P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         18   30  +11      -3.42    28.28    -2.47    82.27     8.00    31.95    15.39    73.26    34.76P    0.00     0.00  
Bromley          18   30   +9       5.23    79.11     9.48    71.17     8.71    12.76     1.66    23.26     5.03P    0.07R    0.00  
Lincoln_City     17   29   +8       4.88    79.17     6.97    70.52     8.37    10.24     1.13    19.99     4.10P    0.03R    0.00  
Braintree_Town   18   29   +5       3.23    70.67     3.23    69.47     7.81     8.29     0.54    14.54     3.07P    0.03R    0.00  
Wrexham          18   28   +7       0.57    53.86     2.93    70.99     8.06    13.82     1.06    20.96     4.94P    0.03R    0.00  
Eastleigh        17   28   +3       2.20    64.04    -0.58    72.78     8.45    10.54     2.13    27.62     6.72P    0.03R    0.00  
Gateshead        18   28   +0       2.60    66.85    -0.85    68.60     8.09     3.18     0.50    12.92     2.47P    0.08R    0.00  
Aldershot        18   27   -2       3.21    70.48    -0.51    65.13     7.99    -2.60     0.16     6.05     0.99P    0.31R    0.02  
Macclesfield     18   26   +5      -1.14    43.02     1.51    67.95     8.03    10.38     0.41    11.93     2.64P    0.09R    0.00  
Chester          18   25   -5       4.52    77.87     2.04    58.40     7.85   -13.46     0.01     0.96     0.09P    2.57R    0.21  
Barrow           18   25  -11       6.89    87.72    -0.04    52.84     7.93   -27.79     0.00     0.24     0.05P   11.22R    1.53  
Woking           17   24   +6      -2.86    32.05     0.56    68.72     8.39    13.31     0.69    15.21     3.61P    0.13R    0.01  
Welling          18   22   -3       0.59    55.08     1.79    54.43     7.65   -12.10     0.00     0.22     0.04P    6.54R    0.83  
Guiseley         18   20  -10       1.10    58.69    -1.19    45.33     7.64   -30.99     0.00     0.01     0.00    38.98R   10.36  
Altrincham       18   19  -13       0.95    57.85    -2.45    48.02     7.54   -28.26     0.00     0.03     0.00P   25.58R    5.38  
Boreham_Wood     18   16   -5      -3.68    28.20     2.48    47.59     8.03   -15.11     0.00     0.03     0.00P   26.83R    6.43  
Torquay          18   15  -14      -7.69    10.36   -10.44    52.32     8.08   -16.29     0.00     0.16     0.04P   11.90R    2.04  
Southport        17   14  -12      -3.05    30.22    -2.23    43.93     7.71   -27.30     0.00     0.01     0.00    45.10R   13.83  
Halifax          18   10  -24     -10.67     3.19   -16.70    39.48     7.76   -39.77     0.00     0.00     0.00    68.87R   33.72  
Kidderminster    18    8  -13     -13.64     0.70    -8.26    40.44     7.73   -22.37     0.00     0.00     0.00P   61.59R   25.64