Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Tuesday 20 October 2015 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 19 October 2015, Swansea 0 1 Stoke; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Man_City          9   21  +16       1.08    58.89     2.50    84.09     7.59    56.88    68.07    88.17    95.76    98.36    99.70     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal           9   19   +9       2.02    67.79     1.85    75.53     8.06    35.76    17.76    52.51    74.98    86.70    96.05     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd           9   19   +7       2.73    74.53     0.93    72.55     8.23    28.30    10.21    34.94    61.05    76.78    91.81     0.00R    0.00  
West_Ham          9   17   +8       3.89    83.18     7.11    57.75     8.33     9.12     0.24     1.98     6.44    14.22    35.80     0.20R    0.01  
Leicester         9   16   +2       4.13    83.75     2.98    51.16     8.31    -7.14     0.03     0.30     1.20     3.39    12.32     2.14R    0.14  
Crystal_Palace    9   15   +2       4.34    86.26     4.75    51.31     8.16    -3.26     0.03     0.27     1.22     3.29    12.20     1.83R    0.14  
Tottenham         9   14   +4       0.66    56.53     2.67    59.76     8.47    12.92     0.48     3.30     9.67    20.31    45.44     0.21R    0.01  
Southampton       9   13   +3      -1.50    35.96    -0.28    57.94     8.35    10.51     0.31     2.06     6.33    14.34    37.03     0.24R    0.01  
Everton           9   13   +1       0.94    59.51     1.48    58.54     8.34     9.44     0.28     2.23     7.14    15.62    38.99     0.27R    0.02  
Liverpool         9   13   -2      -0.68    43.70    -4.10    58.20     8.43     5.76     0.33     2.13     6.41    14.41    36.82     0.30R    0.01  
Stoke             9   12   -1      -0.25    48.12    -0.90    48.75     8.09    -5.61     0.02     0.13     0.57     1.73     7.41     3.35R    0.31  
Chelsea           9   11   -3      -5.23    10.09    -8.93    66.10     8.22    21.43     2.22    11.84    28.52    48.55    74.74     0.01R    0.00  
West_Brom         9   11   -4       0.72    58.50    -0.82    43.88     7.91   -14.83     0.00     0.01     0.09     0.38     2.17    11.14R    1.34  
Swansea           9   10   -1      -1.66    35.12     0.05    48.21     8.23    -3.94     0.01     0.11     0.50     1.45     6.73     4.46R    0.39  
Watford           9   10   -4       0.63    57.77     1.10    41.02     8.31   -18.17     0.00     0.01     0.07     0.26     1.37    20.67R    3.87  
Norwich           9    9   -6      -1.29    39.53    -2.44    37.46     8.20   -27.35     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.09     0.53    35.83R    8.56  
Bournemouth       9    8   -6      -1.88    33.48    -0.99    35.74     8.27   -27.58     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.04     0.35    44.35R   12.08  
Newcastle         9    6   -7      -2.26    28.59     0.58    38.26     8.11   -20.11     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.07     0.53    30.65R    7.21  
Aston_Villa       9    4   -7      -4.93     9.14    -1.62    31.17     7.58   -27.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    65.79R   25.14  
Sunderland        9    3  -11      -6.05     4.74    -5.91    28.46     7.38   -34.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    78.55R   40.77  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 20 October 2015, Bolton 0 1 Birmingham; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Brighton        12   28   +8      10.07    98.28     5.69    76.97     9.00    12.12    11.82    24.59    66.60    33.40P    0.03R    0.00  
Birmingham      12   24   +8       6.96    92.31     7.05    70.47     9.15     8.03     3.65     9.02    39.64    14.73P    0.37R    0.03  
Reading         12   22  +10       4.60    82.48     8.50    70.67     9.21    13.40     3.88     9.61    41.56    16.33P    0.37R    0.02  
Hull            12   22   +9       1.29    60.06     2.81    80.36     9.30    25.98    23.05    40.56    79.86    53.10P    0.01R    0.00  
Burnley         12   22   +5       2.26    67.32     0.23    75.50     9.44    15.41    10.40    21.55    61.27    32.28P    0.09R    0.01  
Middlesbrough   12   21   +9       0.32    52.10     2.76    77.94     9.04    23.98    15.17    30.15    72.70    43.56P    0.02R    0.00  
Derby           11   20   +7       1.13    59.16     1.28    79.95     9.59    25.44    22.61    38.81    77.82    50.62P    0.04R    0.00  
Cardiff         12   20   +4       3.15    74.33     3.22    68.19     9.13     6.65     2.14     5.63    30.52    10.94P    0.79R    0.08  
Sheff_Wed       12   17   +1       1.62    63.95     2.24    61.66     8.95    -1.14     0.37     1.26    11.22     3.26P    3.91R    0.55  
QPR             12   16   -3      -1.71    37.11    -4.84    64.20     9.99    -0.83     1.38     3.51    19.72     7.25P    3.53R    0.57  
Ipswich         12   16   -5      -0.61    45.48    -5.30    63.44     9.33    -3.81     0.74     2.08    15.54     5.01P    3.33R    0.50  
Wolverhampton   11   15   +2      -1.59    37.00    -0.24    69.71     9.61    12.27     3.57     8.93    38.23    16.59P    0.72R    0.07  
Huddersfield    12   14   -2      -0.16    49.90     1.40    54.18     9.01   -11.38     0.04     0.14     2.49     0.56P   17.92R    4.41  
Fulham          11   13   +1      -1.03    42.21     2.73    59.22     9.80    -2.42     0.35     1.06     9.10     2.75P    8.61R    1.80  
Nott'm_Forest   12   13   -3      -2.86    28.30    -2.23    58.12     9.17    -5.18     0.11     0.50     6.12     1.63P    8.96R    1.71  
Blackburn       11   11   -1      -4.34    17.74    -1.42    60.43     9.50     1.44     0.39     1.21    10.52     3.37P    6.03R    1.10  
Preston         12   11   -3      -3.72    22.26    -0.86    53.58     9.27    -8.11     0.05     0.18     2.54     0.69P   19.81R    4.96  
MK_Dons         12   11   -4      -4.31    19.33    -2.24    53.19     9.62   -10.68     0.04     0.17     2.74     0.69P   22.09R    6.17  
Leeds_United    11   11   -5      -1.57    37.43    -1.45    52.86     9.20   -13.51     0.03     0.15     1.97     0.43P   22.75R    6.20  
Brentford       11   11   -6      -3.93    20.06    -5.63    57.95     9.62    -7.77     0.19     0.71     6.65     2.04P   10.84R    2.33  
Bristol_City    12   10   -7      -4.52    18.16    -3.95    51.46     9.76   -15.81     0.02     0.13     1.94     0.49P   29.04R    9.68  
Charlton        12   10   -7      -3.74    21.57    -3.13    49.39     8.83   -16.78     0.01     0.02     0.69     0.16P   34.95R   11.20  
Rotherham       12    9   -8      -3.23    24.96    -1.49    42.96     8.61   -27.77     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.01P   64.38R   33.68  
Bolton          12    8  -10      -5.16    13.28    -5.14    48.05     8.98   -19.55     0.00     0.02     0.50     0.11P   41.42R   14.93  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 20 October 2015, Barnsley 0 2 Walsall; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Gillingham       14   30  +14       7.84    92.54     9.55    79.92     9.20    23.10    24.30    41.90    79.99    50.68P    0.08R    0.00  
Walsall          14   28  +13       5.99    87.19     8.89    78.08     8.80    22.13    17.34    33.58    75.40    44.53P    0.07R    0.00  
Burton_Albion    14   26   +0       8.52    94.29     2.26    65.76     9.03    -5.56     1.53     4.09    22.99     7.51P    4.70R    0.33  
Coventry         13   24  +10       4.39    80.18     7.34    73.74     9.25    16.64     8.86    19.07    57.68    28.29P    0.61R    0.02  
Sheff_Utd        14   24   +6       1.03    57.55     0.38    75.73     8.91    17.70    11.84    24.51    66.33    36.53P    0.26R    0.02  
Bury             14   24   +5       5.52    84.14     6.22    67.05     9.46     3.38     2.38     6.00    29.28    10.56P    4.14R    0.36  
Wigan            14   23   +7      -1.80    36.62    -1.50    79.50     9.26    25.73    23.32    41.34    79.33    54.86P    0.12R    0.00  
Southend         14   21   -1       3.95    77.35     1.79    59.18     8.91    -8.72     0.30     0.93     7.74     2.29P   16.73R    1.98  
Chesterfield     14   20   +1      -0.64    45.63    -1.15    68.18     9.13     7.25     2.50     6.75    33.61    13.53P    2.73R    0.20  
Rochdale         14   19   +2      -0.77    44.82     1.25    65.25     9.12     5.27     1.41     3.91    23.08     8.37P    5.19R    0.48  
Bradford         13   19   -2       1.63    62.99    -1.35    63.44     8.96    -2.95     0.75     2.31    16.56     5.40P    7.46R    0.72  
Colchester       14   19   -7       2.81    70.91    -1.59    56.83     8.87   -17.34     0.08     0.33     4.54     0.96P   24.71R    4.05  
Peterborough     14   18   +2      -2.77    31.15    -0.31    67.26     9.12     9.89     2.22     5.83    30.74    12.18P    3.40R    0.27  
Millwall         13   18   -2      -0.63    45.73    -3.06    65.95     9.66     1.84     2.00     5.18    26.37    10.41P    5.56R    0.51  
Port_Vale        14   17   +0      -1.27    41.45     1.38    58.73     8.82    -3.40     0.18     0.65     7.25     2.01P   16.90R    2.25  
Scunthorpe       14   17   -2      -1.04    43.22    -0.00    56.88     9.00    -8.53     0.12     0.46     5.43     1.49P   23.69R    3.58  
Oldham           14   15   -5      -1.70    38.29    -1.13    54.69     8.82   -11.50     0.05     0.21     2.97     0.76P   31.82R    5.95  
Shrewsbury       14   14   -4      -4.82    19.01    -3.52    54.05     9.13    -9.66     0.07     0.22     3.04     0.89P   34.23R    7.00  
Barnsley         13   14   -4      -4.36    20.19    -4.70    59.47     9.24    -4.00     0.30     1.03     9.27     3.00P   16.24R    2.14  
Doncaster        13   14   -5      -3.09    27.46    -3.97    58.14     9.10    -6.43     0.19     0.67     6.81     2.03P   19.79R    3.11  
Blackpool        13   13   -8      -2.68    30.82    -4.89    53.95     9.23   -14.01     0.06     0.21     2.87     0.78P   36.03R    8.00  
Fleetwood_Town   14   12   -5      -5.11    16.60    -1.78    51.04     8.77   -12.20     0.01     0.05     1.26     0.30P   46.56R   12.10  
Swindon          14   12   -6      -9.33     4.17    -9.18    58.32     9.09    -2.64     0.21     0.77     7.37     2.61P   18.58R    2.74  
Crewe            14   10   -9      -4.03    21.44    -0.93    43.05     8.39   -26.00     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.02P   80.40R   44.19  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 20 October 2015, Accrington_Stanley 3 4 AFC_Wimbledon; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Plymouth             14   29  +11       6.40    88.48     5.95    81.06     8.90    22.93    23.95    56.54    86.33    64.77P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           14   27  +10       5.36    83.75     6.28    75.54     8.99    16.87     9.73    32.51    68.40    41.40P    0.02R    0.01  
Oxford_Utd           14   27   +9       6.41    88.10     6.89    77.42     8.90    18.66    12.75    39.86    76.07    48.94P    0.01R    0.00  
Mansfield            14   25  +11       6.38    88.14    11.66    67.36     8.89     8.90     1.65     9.11    33.58    13.87P    0.32R    0.08  
Northampton          14   24   +4       3.92    76.33     2.73    69.61     9.08     6.39     2.77    13.37    42.42    19.80P    0.23R    0.06  
Leyton_Orient        14   23   +6      -2.96    29.19    -4.51    82.47     9.18    30.25    32.08    63.99    88.77    72.93P    0.00R    0.00  
Morecambe            14   23   +5       2.93    70.37     3.83    69.06     9.23     7.85     2.92    13.00    40.55    19.08P    0.34R    0.08  
Accrington_Stanley   14   22   +4       4.04    77.28     6.03    64.67     9.11     1.65     1.02     5.28    23.51     8.74P    1.12R    0.30  
Carlisle             14   22   +0       3.20    72.22     1.13    62.33     9.17    -6.55     0.52     3.50    16.87     5.90P    1.95R    0.61  
Wycombe              13   21   +5       0.32    52.43     0.84    71.99     9.24    13.62     5.01    20.90    53.76    30.06P    0.10R    0.03  
Bristol_Rovers       13   20   +3       2.95    71.92     3.89    65.82     9.45     4.30     1.30     7.38    28.34    12.27P    0.97R    0.29  
Luton                14   19   +5      -2.02    35.86     2.37    68.22     9.10    13.00     2.29    11.31    38.36    18.58P    0.38R    0.10  
AFC_Wimbledon        14   19   -3       1.76    63.45     0.09    58.84     8.86    -9.53     0.16     1.31     8.48     2.70P    4.54R    1.50  
Exeter               13   18   -1       0.30    52.67    -0.54    61.79     9.30    -3.62     0.47     3.28    15.92     6.07P    2.41R    0.71  
Notts_County         14   18   -3      -3.13    28.90    -5.88    68.71     9.42     7.23     2.57    12.38    39.83    20.45P    0.43R    0.12  
Cambridge_Utd        13   17   -2       0.91    57.94     0.86    56.95     9.17   -10.60     0.13     1.02     6.68     2.17P    7.07R    2.68  
Hartlepool           14   17   -6       1.10    59.49    -1.10    50.61     8.46   -21.33     0.00     0.09     1.13     0.25P   20.19R    8.90  
Crawley_Town         14   15   -7      -4.34    21.89    -7.18    62.10     9.45    -2.27     0.50     3.38    16.93     7.17P    2.67R    0.94  
Barnet               14   14   -6      -1.70    38.73    -0.30    49.49     9.17   -19.48     0.00     0.09     1.35     0.33P   25.84R   13.00  
Stevenage            14   14   -6      -5.83    14.06    -6.83    58.62     9.15    -4.98     0.17     1.45     9.08     3.49P    4.69R    1.65  
York                 14   12   -5      -6.30    11.64    -3.82    51.32     8.73   -11.48     0.02     0.12     1.59     0.41P   17.22R    7.34  
Dag_&_Red            14    9  -10      -7.81     6.50    -6.04    46.54     8.89   -20.23     0.00     0.04     0.52     0.14P   36.29R   19.82  
Yeovil               14    9  -10      -9.03     4.27    -8.36    49.83     9.20   -14.36     0.01     0.11     1.36     0.43P   24.03R   11.83  
Newport_County       14    9  -14      -6.17    11.23    -8.00    44.00     8.55   -27.21     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.03P   49.16R   29.96  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 17 October 2015, Aldershot 1 1 Bromley; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Forest_Green     18   35  +12       4.29    75.51     2.75    82.72     8.05    26.35    16.33    73.61    29.61P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham       18   34  +17       0.18    50.35     2.98    87.50     7.83    40.37    39.01    89.76    55.58P    0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic   18   33   +9       5.33    80.53     4.61    74.26     8.14    13.16     2.85    33.21     8.13P    0.00R    0.00  
Grimsby          18   30  +20      -4.64    21.54     4.73    82.43     7.77    41.51    17.39    75.44    36.95P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         18   30  +11      -3.60    27.24    -2.76    82.44     8.05    32.21    16.19    74.09    35.73P    0.00     0.00  
Bromley          18   30   +9       5.10    78.19     9.26    71.36     8.83    13.06     1.79    24.35     5.36P    0.07R    0.01  
Lincoln_City     17   29   +8       4.89    79.10     6.94    70.53     8.34    10.27     1.18    19.85     4.20P    0.07R    0.01  
Braintree_Town   18   29   +5       3.21    70.56     3.23    69.50     7.79     8.35     0.60    14.50     3.09P    0.04R    0.00  
Wrexham          18   28   +7       0.54    53.71     2.90    71.05     8.06    13.89     1.05    21.04     4.97P    0.02R    0.00  
Eastleigh        17   28   +3       2.24    64.35    -0.50    72.75     8.46    10.50     2.05    27.63     6.55P    0.03R    0.00  
Gateshead        18   28   +0       2.62    66.90    -0.79    68.46     8.08     2.92     0.42    12.42     2.41P    0.09R    0.00  
Aldershot        18   27   -2       3.25    70.31    -0.44    65.02     8.02    -2.73     0.13     5.96     1.06P    0.34R    0.03  
Macclesfield     18   26   +5      -1.03    43.62     1.60    67.84     7.94    10.23     0.36    11.34     2.53P    0.10R    0.01  
Chester          18   25   -5       4.50    77.40     1.96    58.56     7.91   -13.26     0.02     1.10     0.15P    2.54R    0.20  
Barrow           18   25  -11       6.71    86.78    -0.34    53.16     7.96   -27.29     0.00     0.20     0.03P   10.63R    1.52  
Woking           17   24   +6      -2.83    31.84     0.66    68.67     8.35    13.24     0.62    15.07     3.59P    0.16R    0.02  
Welling          18   22   -3       0.69    55.64     1.96    54.26     7.62   -12.31     0.00     0.21     0.03P    6.66R    0.78  
Guiseley         18   20  -10       1.11    58.58    -1.16    45.32     7.65   -31.08     0.00     0.02     0.00    39.31R   10.53  
Altrincham       18   19  -13       0.91    57.73    -2.47    48.03     7.51   -28.25     0.00     0.03     0.00P   25.51R    5.10  
Boreham_Wood     18   16   -5      -3.78    27.73     2.32    47.68     8.09   -14.96     0.00     0.03     0.00P   26.47R    6.34  
Torquay          18   15  -14      -7.76    10.04   -10.54    52.28     8.06   -16.31     0.00     0.15     0.03P   11.74R    2.01  
Southport        17   14  -12      -2.91    31.10    -2.01    43.77     7.69   -27.62     0.00     0.00     0.00    45.76R   14.30  
Halifax          18   10  -24     -10.64     3.19   -16.64    39.36     7.71   -39.95     0.00     0.00     0.00    69.28R   33.90  
Kidderminster    18    8  -13     -13.63     0.75    -8.27    40.49     7.79   -22.29     0.00     0.00     0.00    61.17R   25.26