Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Monday 19 October 2015 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 19 October 2015, Swansea 0 1 Stoke; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Man_City          9   21  +16       1.00    58.01     2.45    84.14     7.63    56.95    68.52    88.13    95.79    98.37    99.72     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal           9   19   +9       2.00    68.00     1.83    75.58     8.06    35.87    17.73    53.13    75.62    87.11    96.33     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd           9   19   +7       2.73    74.22     0.92    72.45     8.22    28.13     9.96    34.45    60.73    76.86    91.85     0.00R    0.00  
West_Ham          9   17   +8       3.98    83.67     7.25    57.62     8.38     8.89     0.23     1.98     6.17    13.97    35.62     0.25R    0.01  
Leicester         9   16   +2       4.12    83.56     2.96    51.11     8.34    -7.15     0.07     0.38     1.37     3.60    12.41     2.27R    0.15  
Crystal_Palace    9   15   +2       4.33    86.41     4.74    51.34     8.15    -3.21     0.01     0.28     1.16     3.25    12.61     1.80R    0.15  
Tottenham         9   14   +4       0.73    57.31     2.79    59.41     8.38    12.40     0.40     2.90     8.83    19.24    44.20     0.21R    0.01  
Southampton       9   13   +3      -1.51    35.83    -0.25    57.87     8.34    10.43     0.32     2.14     6.54    14.27    36.90     0.28R    0.01  
Everton           9   13   +1       0.92    59.26     1.47    58.60     8.41     9.50     0.36     2.40     7.18    16.02    39.82     0.24R    0.00  
Liverpool         9   13   -2      -0.66    43.67    -4.05    58.04     8.40     5.55     0.30     2.01     6.47    14.40    36.46     0.29R    0.01  
Stoke             9   12   -1      -0.32    47.89    -0.99    48.90     8.05    -5.34     0.01     0.16     0.63     1.91     7.53     3.18R    0.27  
Chelsea           9   11   -3      -5.21    10.11    -8.94    66.05     8.22    21.32     2.09    11.88    28.78    48.59    74.81     0.02R    0.00  
West_Brom         9   11   -4       0.72    58.61    -0.82    43.94     8.03   -14.77     0.00     0.03     0.14     0.46     2.27    11.49R    1.37  
Swansea           9   10   -1      -1.63    35.26     0.10    48.09     8.24    -4.14     0.01     0.11     0.48     1.51     6.63     4.63R    0.50  
Watford           9   10   -4       0.69    58.34     1.20    41.02     8.20   -18.31     0.00     0.01     0.06     0.24     1.34    20.93R    3.88  
Norwich           9    9   -6      -1.34    38.97    -2.53    37.72     8.27   -26.91     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.08     0.55    35.20R    8.44  
Bournemouth       9    8   -6      -2.02    32.29    -1.24    36.11     8.26   -26.89     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.07     0.42    42.54R   11.22  
Newcastle         9    6   -7      -2.26    28.94     0.59    38.20     8.15   -20.22     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.06     0.48    31.41R    7.48  
Aston_Villa       9    4   -7      -4.87     9.31    -1.54    31.10     7.58   -27.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.03    66.58R   25.83  
Sunderland        9    3  -11      -6.09     4.82    -5.96    28.58     7.38   -34.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.69R   40.66  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 18 October 2015, Derby 4 2 Wolverhampton; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Brighton        11   25   +7       8.88    97.30     5.31    75.33     9.24    11.11     9.14    19.91    60.04    28.35P    0.07R    0.00  
Middlesbrough   11   21  +10       1.51    62.68     3.54    80.25     9.35    26.35    22.66    39.99    79.49    52.49P    0.01R    0.00  
Reading         11   21  +10       5.27    86.97     8.94    71.88     9.48    14.59     5.12    12.24    46.76    19.60P    0.27R    0.02  
Birmingham      11   21   +7       5.55    88.21     6.43    68.71     9.42     6.78     2.66     6.78    33.22    11.89P    0.82R    0.08  
Burnley         11   21   +5       2.74    71.57     0.38    76.24     9.76    15.88    12.04    24.22    63.70    35.02P    0.10R    0.00  
Derby           11   20   +7       1.11    58.86     1.28    80.27     9.53    25.89    22.75    40.13    79.12    51.68P    0.02R    0.00  
Hull            11   19   +6       0.54    54.27     1.05    77.53     9.69    21.36    15.46    29.26    69.45    41.74P    0.10R    0.01  
Cardiff         11   17   +3       1.49    62.69     2.22    65.68     9.45     4.38     1.42     3.94    22.82     8.04P    1.88R    0.23  
Sheff_Wed       11   16   +1       1.72    65.19     1.93    61.49     9.39    -2.14     0.46     1.44    11.82     3.39P    4.89R    0.79  
Ipswich         11   16   -2      -0.14    49.27    -3.63    65.34     9.57     0.07     1.28     3.58    21.91     7.71P    2.31R    0.37  
Wolverhampton   11   15   +2      -1.60    36.95    -0.25    69.39     9.62    11.80     3.48     8.40    37.27    15.91P    0.73R    0.07  
QPR             11   15   -3      -1.33    39.64    -4.84    65.43    10.35     0.42     2.09     5.06    24.08     9.48P    3.13R    0.46  
Fulham          11   13   +1      -1.08    41.84     2.67    59.34     9.77    -2.36     0.37     1.12     9.42     2.71P    8.75R    1.79  
Nott'm_Forest   11   12   -3      -2.51    29.95    -2.24    58.08     9.50    -5.80     0.18     0.63     6.76     1.92P   10.03R    2.04  
Blackburn       11   11   -1      -4.31    18.01    -1.35    60.52     9.54     1.50     0.38     1.33    10.88     3.60P    6.13R    1.05  
MK_Dons         11   11   -2      -3.59    22.82    -1.19    56.08     9.98    -6.48     0.17     0.57     5.66     1.70P   15.15R    3.69  
Huddersfield    11   11   -4      -1.44    38.88    -0.02    51.93     9.24   -14.44     0.02     0.10     1.54     0.36P   26.43R    7.67  
Leeds_United    11   11   -5      -1.53    38.01    -1.33    53.05     9.23   -13.32     0.04     0.13     2.11     0.46P   22.50R    6.07  
Brentford       11   11   -6      -3.93    20.15    -5.64    58.07     9.73    -7.64     0.17     0.70     7.22     2.22P   10.85R    2.44  
Charlton        11   10   -4      -2.93    26.14    -0.95    52.50     9.10   -11.27     0.03     0.10     1.76     0.40P   23.26R    6.13  
Bristol_City    11   10   -6      -3.61    22.95    -3.58    52.66    10.04   -15.03     0.08     0.25     2.93     0.83P   25.68R    8.18  
Preston         11    8   -6      -4.68    14.99    -2.89    49.44     9.46   -14.61     0.01     0.06     1.03     0.28P   36.01R   11.92  
Rotherham       11    8   -8      -3.03    25.50    -1.63    42.85     8.85   -28.69     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.02P   65.29R   34.70  
Bolton          11    8   -9      -3.88    19.61    -4.21    49.60     9.33   -18.35     0.02     0.05     0.88     0.18P   35.58R   12.28  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 17 October 2015, Bury 0 0 Rochdale; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Gillingham       13   27  +13       6.62    89.74     9.21    78.58     9.38    22.56    23.59    39.70    75.60    48.35P    0.17R    0.01  
Walsall          13   25  +11       4.69    82.20     7.33    75.46     9.01    18.80    13.29    26.06    65.16    36.39P    0.32R    0.01  
Burton_Albion    13   25   +0       9.11    95.91     2.66    67.03     9.33    -4.48     2.66     6.46    27.90    10.39P    4.13R    0.29  
Bury             13   24   +6       6.46    88.66     6.54    68.57     9.62     4.62     4.13     9.49    35.28    14.71P    3.04R    0.18  
Coventry         12   23  +10       4.72    83.11     7.23    74.27     9.48    16.88    11.83    23.38    59.49    32.39P    0.63R    0.02  
Sheff_Utd        13   21   +3       0.28    51.88    -1.32    73.58     9.19    13.92     9.91    20.39    56.85    30.53P    0.68R    0.03  
Southend         13   21   +2       4.34    80.14     3.39    62.10     9.19    -3.42     0.84     2.31    14.03     4.74P   10.26R    0.96  
Wigan            13   20   +6      -3.09    27.27    -1.95    77.17     9.45    23.53    19.20    34.53    71.43    47.18P    0.29R    0.02  
Peterborough     13   18   +3      -1.56    38.42     0.37    68.74     9.34    11.09     4.13     9.58    36.67    16.65P    2.74R    0.25  
Rochdale         13   18   +2      -0.30    48.06     1.44    65.73     9.31     5.44     2.08     5.26    25.33     9.96P    5.18R    0.45  
Port_Vale        13   17   +1      -0.08    50.16     2.10    60.50     9.09    -1.75     0.47     1.52    10.81     3.53P   13.46R    1.45  
Scunthorpe       13   17   -1      -0.05    50.45     0.29    57.86     9.17    -8.27     0.27     0.85     6.81     2.02P   21.38R    2.98  
Millwall         12   17   -2      -0.24    48.33    -3.04    66.60     9.89     2.33     3.00     7.18    28.74    12.40P    5.65R    0.54  
Chesterfield     13   17   -2      -1.41    39.70    -2.89    65.56     9.32     2.75     1.82     4.83    24.33     9.58P    5.55R    0.45  
Bradford         12   16   -3       0.33    53.59    -1.89    61.60     9.19    -4.20     0.63     1.92    12.84     4.34P   11.41R    1.29  
Colchester       13   16   -8       1.40    62.06    -2.20    54.45     9.18   -19.69     0.09     0.32     3.24     0.84P   35.00R    7.03  
Barnsley         12   14   -2      -3.38    24.93    -3.30    61.99     9.51    -0.16     0.91     2.64    15.20     5.75P   11.15R    1.32  
Shrewsbury       13   14   -3      -3.63    24.86    -2.76    56.18     9.43    -7.46     0.21     0.63     5.34     1.78P   26.96R    4.74  
Fleetwood_Town   13   12   -2      -4.58    18.41    -0.08    52.73     9.03    -8.76     0.06     0.18     2.31     0.64P   39.66R    8.57  
Swindon          13   12   -5      -7.86     6.43    -8.00    60.94     9.29     0.37     0.60     1.82    12.48     4.86P   12.85R    1.55  
Oldham           13   12   -6      -3.38    25.79    -2.28    51.57     8.98   -14.80     0.03     0.10     1.59     0.39P   45.65R   11.00  
Blackpool        12   12   -8      -2.38    32.45    -4.96    54.21     9.53   -14.26     0.13     0.39     3.57     1.03P   35.87R    7.76  
Doncaster        12   11   -6      -4.63    16.86    -4.81    56.07     9.30    -8.06     0.13     0.47     4.91     1.53P   27.28R    4.89  
Crewe            13    9   -9      -3.87    21.80    -1.08    42.91     8.61   -26.97     0.00     0.01     0.11     0.03P   80.69R   44.22  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 17 October 2015, AFC_Wimbledon 2 5 Morecambe; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Plymouth             13   29  +12       7.61    93.21     6.74    83.03     9.06    24.84    28.18    62.78    89.64    70.32P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           13   26  +10       5.86    87.14     6.45    76.28     9.26    17.40     9.88    33.70    69.93    42.48P    0.02R    0.01  
Oxford_Utd           13   24   +8       5.02    83.62     6.24    75.14     9.03    16.78     7.40    28.64    66.39    38.11P    0.02R    0.00  
Mansfield            13   22  +10       4.84    83.02    10.88    65.12     9.10     6.89     0.96     5.64    25.02     9.45P    0.73R    0.15  
Leyton_Orient        13   22   +6      -2.43    31.54    -4.40    83.26     9.51    31.04    31.81    64.65    89.09    73.50P    0.00R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   13   22   +5       5.40    85.12     6.87    66.86     9.33     4.03     1.44     8.00    30.84    12.51P    0.61R    0.15  
Carlisle             13   22   +1       4.15    78.36     1.38    63.48     9.34    -5.87     0.61     4.21    19.86     7.18P    1.45R    0.37  
Wycombe              12   21   +7       1.73    63.58     2.84    75.38     9.42    18.48     8.59    30.89    66.91    41.17P    0.05R    0.01  
Northampton          13   21   +3       2.67    69.80     2.32    67.96     9.32     5.29     1.79     9.65    35.45    15.44P    0.36R    0.10  
Morecambe            13   20   +3       1.81    63.69     2.66    66.45     9.39     4.21     1.45     7.82    29.92    12.48P    0.67R    0.14  
Bristol_Rovers       12   19   +3       3.15    74.25     3.72    66.24     9.61     4.38     1.42     7.62    29.41    12.67P    0.78R    0.23  
Luton                13   18   +5      -1.76    37.12     2.19    68.05     9.31    12.22     1.93    10.44    37.14    17.32P    0.40R    0.11  
Exeter               13   18   -1       0.31    52.99    -0.49    61.73     9.30    -3.82     0.41     2.92    15.31     5.56P    2.18R    0.65  
Cambridge_Utd        13   17   -2       0.84    57.25     0.75    57.07     9.16   -10.40     0.10     0.88     6.64     1.91P    6.15R    2.07  
Notts_County         13   17   -3      -2.93    29.35    -6.06    69.63     9.76     8.15     2.91    14.19    42.93    22.77P    0.38R    0.10  
AFC_Wimbledon        13   16   -4       0.15    52.17    -0.93    56.46     9.02   -11.48     0.08     0.70     5.34     1.53P    7.09R    2.37  
Hartlepool           13   16   -6       1.52    63.15    -0.96    50.78     8.64   -21.79     0.01     0.11     1.31     0.27P   19.04R    7.44  
Crawley_Town         13   15   -5      -3.29    27.28    -5.69    64.37     9.76     1.08     0.82     5.32    23.58    10.17P    1.66R    0.45  
Barnet               13   13   -6      -1.37    40.93    -0.28    50.07     9.33   -19.29     0.02     0.13     1.61     0.41P   23.07R   10.27  
Stevenage            13   13   -6      -5.48    14.77    -6.83    58.38     9.25    -5.95     0.14     1.19     8.65     3.07P    4.73R    1.53  
York                 13   11   -5      -5.75    12.68    -3.52    51.75     8.97   -11.32     0.01     0.19     1.84     0.62P   15.55R    6.08  
Yeovil               13    9   -9      -7.99     5.82    -7.80    52.10     9.53   -12.17     0.04     0.30     2.59     0.91P   16.49R    6.94  
Dag_&_Red            13    8  -10      -7.55     6.22    -6.22    46.77     9.07   -20.38     0.00     0.04     0.53     0.16P   34.24R   16.62  
Newport_County       13    6  -16      -7.78     4.72    -9.86    40.45     8.70   -32.30     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.02P   64.33R   44.22  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 17 October 2015, Aldershot 1 1 Bromley; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Forest_Green     18   35  +12       4.28    75.70     2.73    82.77     8.06    26.38    16.53    73.86    29.81P    0.00R    0.00  
Cheltenham       18   34  +17       0.11    49.91     2.91    87.62     7.86    40.54    39.77    90.16    56.09P    0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic   18   33   +9       5.35    80.64     4.69    74.06     8.09    12.88     2.55    32.24     7.60P    0.00R    0.00  
Grimsby          18   30  +20      -4.69    21.10     4.65    82.49     7.66    41.60    17.06    75.85    37.30P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         18   30  +11      -3.59    27.04    -2.71    82.39     8.07    32.16    15.99    73.66    35.39P    0.00R    0.00  
Bromley          18   30   +9       5.19    78.65     9.44    71.21     8.80    12.78     1.70    23.63     5.22P    0.07R    0.00  
Lincoln_City     17   29   +8       4.89    79.28     6.93    70.57     8.36    10.32     1.05    20.25     4.03P    0.07R    0.00  
Braintree_Town   18   29   +5       3.31    70.97     3.38    69.31     7.87     8.10     0.58    14.21     3.09P    0.04R    0.00  
Wrexham          18   28   +7       0.64    54.15     3.05    70.97     7.99    13.78     1.03    20.75     4.79P    0.02R    0.00  
Eastleigh        17   28   +3       2.24    64.24    -0.51    72.75     8.43    10.52     2.00    27.73     6.54P    0.03R    0.00  
Gateshead        18   28   +0       2.56    66.41    -0.88    68.63     8.08     3.21     0.50    12.81     2.49P    0.08R    0.00  
Aldershot        18   27   -2       3.25    70.69    -0.51    65.16     8.00    -2.51     0.12     6.00     0.96P    0.32R    0.03  
Macclesfield     18   26   +5      -1.13    42.80     1.47    67.97     8.04    10.40     0.40    12.11     2.77P    0.12R    0.01  
Chester          18   25   -5       4.48    77.31     1.93    58.49     7.86   -13.34     0.01     0.97     0.13P    2.47R    0.24  
Barrow           18   25  -11       6.79    87.33    -0.29    53.03     7.94   -27.40     0.00     0.22     0.03P   10.75R    1.47  
Woking           17   24   +6      -2.85    31.96     0.63    68.64     8.38    13.15     0.71    15.01     3.66P    0.08R    0.01  
Welling          18   22   -3       0.64    55.26     1.90    54.37     7.67   -12.23     0.01     0.24     0.04P    6.53R    0.81  
Guiseley         18   20  -10       0.95    57.63    -1.43    45.58     7.64   -30.64     0.00     0.02     0.00    37.72R    9.55  
Altrincham       18   19  -13       0.94    57.80    -2.46    47.98     7.54   -28.33     0.00     0.03     0.00P   25.67R    5.16  
Boreham_Wood     18   16   -5      -3.61    28.55     2.57    47.55     8.02   -15.19     0.00     0.03     0.01P   26.90R    6.28  
Torquay          18   15  -14      -7.88     9.73   -10.75    52.44     8.06   -16.06     0.00     0.19     0.05P   11.48R    2.08  
Southport        17   14  -12      -2.96    30.56    -2.08    43.88     7.73   -27.46     0.00     0.01     0.00    45.36R   14.13  
Halifax          18   10  -24     -10.70     3.04   -16.76    39.45     7.73   -39.76     0.00     0.00     0.00    69.05R   33.27  
Kidderminster    18    8  -13     -13.43     0.76    -7.90    40.12     7.72   -22.89     0.00     0.00     0.00    63.23R   26.96