Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Sunday 18 October 2015 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 18 October 2015, Newcastle 6 2 Norwich; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Man_City          9   21  +16       0.99    57.73     2.36    84.24     7.63    57.22    68.92    88.40    95.91    98.38    99.67     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal           9   19   +9       2.03    67.91     1.87    75.45     8.02    35.68    17.26    51.89    75.06    86.77    95.98     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd           9   19   +7       2.71    74.02     0.85    72.71     8.21    28.59    10.14    35.84    61.97    77.78    92.22     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham          9   17   +8       3.93    83.45     7.18    57.63     8.39     8.90     0.24     1.98     6.41    14.14    35.34     0.31R    0.01  
Leicester         9   16   +2       4.12    83.83     2.98    51.10     8.29    -7.23     0.05     0.37     1.29     3.47    11.92     2.15R    0.15  
Crystal_Palace    9   15   +2       4.36    86.43     4.79    51.25     8.05    -3.37     0.02     0.24     1.15     3.17    11.91     1.75R    0.13  
Tottenham         9   14   +4       0.66    56.45     2.68    59.60     8.42    12.66     0.44     3.19     9.26    19.76    45.13     0.20R    0.01  
Southampton       9   13   +3      -1.51    35.99    -0.28    58.04     8.26    10.66     0.28     2.09     6.48    14.67    37.55     0.21R    0.01  
Everton           9   13   +1       0.98    59.92     1.55    58.58     8.41     9.49     0.31     2.39     7.34    15.95    39.34     0.24R    0.01  
Liverpool         9   13   -2      -0.66    43.66    -4.08    57.93     8.46     5.32     0.30     1.88     6.16    14.17    36.08     0.33R    0.02  
Chelsea           9   11   -3      -5.18    10.21    -8.85    65.80     8.24    21.01     2.03    11.36    27.39    46.86    73.91     0.02R    0.00  
West_Brom         9   11   -4       0.69    58.43    -0.86    44.09     7.95   -14.53     0.00     0.02     0.13     0.40     2.26    10.84R    1.35  
Swansea           8   10   +0      -0.29    47.76     1.08    50.19     8.52    -2.06     0.02     0.25     0.98     2.79    11.03     3.17R    0.30  
Watford           9   10   -4       0.60    57.32     1.06    41.20     8.29   -17.93     0.00     0.01     0.06     0.27     1.44    20.18R    3.74  
Stoke             8    9   -2      -1.89    31.87    -1.83    46.38     8.35    -7.85     0.01     0.07     0.36     1.22     4.84     6.67R    0.79  
Norwich           9    9   -6      -1.34    38.77    -2.48    37.54     8.21   -27.36     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.07     0.49    35.65R    8.79  
Bournemouth       9    8   -6      -1.93    33.06    -1.07    35.96     8.21   -27.25     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.03     0.34    43.01R   11.70  
Newcastle         9    6   -7      -2.24    28.70     0.62    38.21     8.12   -20.18     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.09     0.51    31.20R    7.35  
Aston_Villa       9    4   -7      -4.93     9.02    -1.60    31.10     7.53   -27.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03    66.41R   26.14  
Sunderland        9    3  -11      -6.10     4.82    -5.97    28.79     7.41   -34.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    77.65R   39.51  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 18 October 2015, Derby 4 2 Wolverhampton; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Brighton        11   25   +7       8.90    97.40     5.34    75.41     9.26    11.25     9.32    19.92    60.44    28.59P    0.10R    0.01  
Middlesbrough   11   21  +10       1.55    62.85     3.57    80.17     9.28    26.26    22.15    39.45    79.25    52.00P    0.01R    0.00  
Reading         11   21  +10       5.25    86.80     8.95    71.79     9.43    14.44     5.07    12.25    46.52    19.53P    0.31R    0.04  
Birmingham      11   21   +7       5.65    88.47     6.54    68.48     9.43     6.48     2.64     6.72    32.24    11.61P    0.83R    0.08  
Burnley         11   21   +5       2.69    71.24     0.34    76.24     9.77    15.95    12.22    24.41    63.98    35.39P    0.11R    0.01  
Derby           11   20   +7       1.13    58.88     1.33    80.18     9.51    25.77    22.65    39.84    78.69    51.31P    0.04R    0.00  
Hull            11   19   +6       0.56    54.41     1.05    77.66     9.62    21.53    15.68    29.69    70.44    42.45P    0.05R    0.00  
Cardiff         11   17   +3       1.48    62.74     2.24    65.74     9.47     4.42     1.49     4.08    23.29     8.13P    1.89R    0.21  
Sheff_Wed       11   16   +1       1.75    65.20     1.96    61.49     9.27    -2.18     0.44     1.32    11.72     3.27P    4.74R    0.77  
Ipswich         11   16   -2      -0.16    48.83    -3.64    65.31     9.56    -0.04     1.35     3.72    21.72     7.58P    2.33R    0.37  
Wolverhampton   11   15   +2      -1.68    36.33    -0.39    69.59     9.59    12.09     3.49     8.65    37.99    16.31P    0.76R    0.11  
QPR             11   15   -3      -1.31    39.65    -4.81    65.37    10.26     0.34     1.96     4.94    23.56     9.20P    3.19R    0.50  
Fulham          11   13   +1      -1.13    40.99     2.58    59.31     9.76    -2.33     0.37     1.08     9.20     2.60P    8.61R    1.78  
Nott'm_Forest   11   12   -3      -2.55    29.54    -2.33    58.40     9.47    -5.36     0.19     0.69     7.11     2.04P    9.58R    1.96  
Blackburn       11   11   -1      -4.26    18.15    -1.30    60.40     9.52     1.35     0.36     1.24    10.58     3.49P    6.31R    1.21  
MK_Dons         11   11   -2      -3.61    22.60    -1.22    56.16    10.02    -6.35     0.20     0.63     5.86     1.80P   15.15R    3.71  
Huddersfield    11   11   -4      -1.41    39.01     0.04    51.80     9.27   -14.65     0.03     0.11     1.73     0.40P   26.93R    7.81  
Leeds_United    11   11   -5      -1.49    38.43    -1.31    52.90     9.19   -13.43     0.04     0.14     2.00     0.50P   22.89R    6.21  
Brentford       11   11   -6      -3.93    19.97    -5.60    57.88     9.68    -7.95     0.20     0.67     6.71     2.03P   11.21R    2.37  
Charlton        11   10   -4      -2.90    26.35    -0.91    52.56     9.15   -11.19     0.04     0.10     1.85     0.43P   23.44R    6.18  
Bristol_City    11   10   -6      -3.67    22.36    -3.72    52.80    10.06   -14.76     0.06     0.23     2.96     0.78P   25.46R    8.03  
Preston         11    8   -6      -4.72    15.07    -2.90    49.47     9.40   -14.60     0.01     0.06     1.09     0.31P   35.27R   11.75  
Rotherham       11    8   -8      -3.02    25.90    -1.61    42.70     8.95   -28.91     0.00     0.01     0.12     0.03P   65.93R   35.56  
Bolton          11    8   -9      -3.89    19.70    -4.22    49.83     9.28   -18.13     0.02     0.06     0.97     0.22P   34.88R   11.31  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 17 October 2015, Bury 0 0 Rochdale; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Gillingham       13   27  +13       6.59    89.65     9.14    78.79     9.46    22.89    24.12    40.27    76.15    48.81P    0.17R    0.00  
Walsall          13   25  +11       4.78    82.58     7.47    75.35     9.01    18.64    13.01    25.58    64.63    35.55P    0.26R    0.01  
Burton_Albion    13   25   +0       9.11    95.92     2.65    66.99     9.32    -4.54     2.61     6.45    27.82    10.27P    4.14R    0.24  
Bury             13   24   +6       6.51    88.92     6.61    68.60     9.54     4.68     4.02     9.30    35.29    14.65P    2.92R    0.18  
Coventry         12   23  +10       4.63    82.54     7.16    74.11     9.57    16.65    11.52    22.71    58.86    31.54P    0.68R    0.03  
Sheff_Utd        13   21   +3       0.30    52.36    -1.31    73.57     9.16    13.92     9.74    20.09    56.78    30.41P    0.68R    0.02  
Southend         13   21   +2       4.37    80.52     3.41    61.96     9.20    -3.65     0.81     2.27    13.88     4.62P   10.85R    1.06  
Wigan            13   20   +6      -3.15    26.85    -2.02    77.27     9.52    23.71    19.54    35.23    71.82    48.00P    0.29R    0.01  
Peterborough     13   18   +3      -1.60    38.30     0.30    68.76     9.35    11.16     4.04     9.62    37.03    16.91P    2.67R    0.17  
Rochdale         13   18   +2      -0.37    47.67     1.34    65.76     9.37     5.50     2.18     5.43    25.62    10.27P    5.21R    0.47  
Port_Vale        13   17   +1      -0.13    49.76     2.03    60.70     9.13    -1.46     0.50     1.54    11.34     3.68P   13.03R    1.34  
Scunthorpe       13   17   -1      -0.15    49.49     0.17    58.00     9.09    -8.04     0.23     0.84     6.77     1.94P   20.66R    2.76  
Millwall         12   17   -2      -0.14    49.40    -2.92    66.48    10.00     2.13     3.07     7.30    28.50    12.61P    5.84R    0.57  
Chesterfield     13   17   -2      -1.46    39.30    -2.93    65.54     9.30     2.70     1.66     4.73    24.17     9.48P    5.43R    0.48  
Bradford         12   16   -3       0.31    53.33    -1.94    61.86     9.25    -3.85     0.70     2.15    13.71     4.73P   11.22R    1.31  
Colchester       13   16   -8       1.44    62.41    -2.17    54.47     9.11   -19.60     0.07     0.27     3.15     0.77P   34.67R    6.91  
Barnsley         12   14   -2      -3.36    25.14    -3.28    61.96     9.53    -0.18     0.99     2.67    15.19     5.89P   11.25R    1.35  
Shrewsbury       13   14   -3      -3.57    25.02    -2.69    56.09     9.42    -7.62     0.22     0.67     5.23     1.72P   27.32R    4.63  
Fleetwood_Town   13   12   -2      -4.61    18.62    -0.15    52.91     9.00    -8.47     0.06     0.18     2.28     0.64P   38.76R    8.36  
Swindon          13   12   -5      -7.85     6.56    -7.99    60.86     9.36     0.20     0.68     1.85    12.29     4.81P   13.15R    1.65  
Oldham           13   12   -6      -3.39    25.71    -2.29    51.57     9.03   -14.83     0.02     0.11     1.54     0.39P   45.65R   11.16  
Blackpool        12   12   -8      -2.28    33.26    -4.81    53.99     9.49   -14.55     0.10     0.29     3.12     0.87P   36.63R    8.05  
Doncaster        12   11   -6      -4.59    17.26    -4.76    55.95     9.28    -8.23     0.12     0.45     4.72     1.44P   27.67R    4.89  
Crewe            13    9   -9      -3.81    22.02    -1.01    42.85     8.63   -27.14     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.02P   80.84R   44.37  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 17 October 2015, AFC_Wimbledon 2 5 Morecambe; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Plymouth             13   29  +12       7.60    93.45     6.77    82.93     9.09    24.67    28.12    62.13    89.35    69.43P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           13   26  +10       5.83    86.95     6.43    76.31     9.20    17.47     9.85    33.80    70.20    42.54P    0.02R    0.00  
Oxford_Utd           13   24   +8       4.95    83.26     6.16    75.25     9.12    16.94     7.90    29.37    66.57    38.76P    0.04R    0.01  
Mansfield            13   22  +10       4.92    83.35    10.96    65.03     9.01     6.81     0.86     5.54    24.43     9.21P    0.73R    0.16  
Leyton_Orient        13   22   +6      -2.38    31.86    -4.30    83.16     9.45    30.93    31.67    64.22    88.93    73.08P    0.01R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   13   22   +5       5.40    85.09     6.90    66.67     9.21     3.74     1.28     7.39    29.80    11.80P    0.62R    0.14  
Carlisle             13   22   +1       4.10    78.28     1.32    63.49     9.41    -5.80     0.65     4.42    19.75     7.29P    1.47R    0.37  
Wycombe              12   21   +7       1.68    63.17     2.74    75.56     9.32    18.76     8.62    31.59    67.33    41.99P    0.03R    0.00  
Northampton          13   21   +3       2.65    69.52     2.28    68.06     9.39     5.45     1.89     9.91    35.79    15.62P    0.40R    0.10  
Morecambe            13   20   +3       1.84    63.75     2.73    66.37     9.51     4.06     1.48     7.74    30.03    12.60P    0.79R    0.21  
Bristol_Rovers       12   19   +3       3.23    74.62     3.84    66.09     9.70     4.08     1.27     7.42    29.08    12.41P    0.89R    0.24  
Luton                13   18   +5      -1.75    37.20     2.18    68.15     9.29    12.32     2.02    10.65    37.41    17.71P    0.42R    0.10  
Exeter               13   18   -1       0.27    52.65    -0.58    61.85     9.28    -3.69     0.43     2.92    15.46     5.64P    2.10R    0.58  
Cambridge_Utd        13   17   -2       0.87    57.59     0.82    57.12     9.10   -10.30     0.12     0.82     6.49     1.89P    6.02R    1.85  
Notts_County         13   17   -3      -2.85    29.93    -5.97    69.54     9.68     8.01     2.64    13.69    42.53    22.06P    0.38R    0.09  
AFC_Wimbledon        13   16   -4       0.18    52.17    -0.95    56.53     9.09   -11.42     0.07     0.66     5.54     1.59P    7.22R    2.59  
Hartlepool           13   16   -6       1.49    62.92    -1.05    50.90     8.58   -21.56     0.01     0.08     1.21     0.25P   18.24R    7.02  
Crawley_Town         13   15   -5      -3.49    25.86    -5.99    64.81     9.75     1.74     0.93     5.76    25.00    11.15P    1.51R    0.44  
Barnet               13   13   -6      -1.33    40.97    -0.25    49.94     9.20   -19.56     0.01     0.16     1.47     0.38P   23.01R   10.07  
Stevenage            13   13   -6      -5.48    14.66    -6.83    58.33     9.33    -6.05     0.16     1.25     8.67     3.09P    4.76R    1.53  
York                 13   11   -5      -5.76    12.51    -3.54    51.72     8.91   -11.32     0.01     0.15     1.89     0.52P   15.65R    6.02  
Yeovil               13    9   -9      -7.91     5.96    -7.68    51.89     9.46   -12.47     0.02     0.26     2.45     0.81P   16.89R    7.17  
Dag_&_Red            13    8  -10      -7.59     6.06    -6.29    46.81     9.04   -20.24     0.00     0.05     0.56     0.15P   33.97R   16.16  
Newport_County       13    6  -16      -7.66     4.92    -9.69    40.27     8.57   -32.58     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.02P   64.86R   45.15  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 17 October 2015, Aldershot 1 1 Bromley; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Forest_Green     18   35  +12       4.20    75.03     2.60    82.87     8.06    26.56    16.80    74.29    30.18P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham       18   34  +17       0.13    49.80     2.95    87.56     7.93    40.41    39.42    89.72    55.96P    0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic   18   33   +9       5.29    80.09     4.62    74.16     8.13    12.99     2.76    33.02     7.95P    0.00R    0.00  
Grimsby          18   30  +20      -4.68    21.37     4.67    82.44     7.83    41.59    17.27    75.12    37.30P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         18   30  +11      -3.45    27.81    -2.56    82.30     8.08    32.01    15.74    73.30    34.88P    0.00     0.00  
Bromley          18   30   +9       5.11    78.50     9.26    71.29     8.69    12.94     1.51    23.35     4.93P    0.05R    0.00  
Lincoln_City     17   29   +8       4.82    78.76     6.86    70.70     8.35    10.52     1.14    20.46     4.17P    0.04R    0.00  
Braintree_Town   18   29   +5       3.26    70.77     3.26    69.41     7.92     8.27     0.56    14.71     3.05P    0.04R    0.00  
Wrexham          18   28   +7       0.64    54.39     2.98    71.03     8.03    13.86     1.01    20.93     5.00P    0.02R    0.00  
Eastleigh        17   28   +3       2.11    63.49    -0.68    72.92     8.45    10.80     2.12    28.30     6.83P    0.02R    0.00  
Gateshead        18   28   +0       2.58    66.27    -0.85    68.61     8.03     3.16     0.49    12.60     2.45P    0.06R    0.00  
Aldershot        18   27   -2       3.39    71.64    -0.26    64.88     7.94    -2.95     0.13     5.62     0.93P    0.30R    0.02  
Macclesfield     18   26   +5      -1.22    42.19     1.33    68.16     7.97    10.67     0.44    12.14     2.65P    0.11R    0.01  
Chester          18   25   -5       4.48    77.44     1.98    58.42     7.94   -13.42     0.00     0.98     0.12P    2.75R    0.28  
Barrow           18   25  -11       6.88    87.47    -0.07    52.88     7.96   -27.66     0.00     0.23     0.03P   10.95R    1.62  
Woking           17   24   +6      -2.78    32.24     0.74    68.58     8.36    13.03     0.61    14.76     3.49P    0.08R    0.01  
Welling          18   22   -3       0.66    55.37     1.94    54.32     7.65   -12.23     0.01     0.25     0.04P    6.59R    0.81  
Guiseley         18   20  -10       1.08    58.38    -1.23    45.42     7.58   -30.86     0.00     0.01     0.00    38.36R    9.66  
Altrincham       18   19  -13       0.90    57.65    -2.46    47.97     7.57   -28.37     0.00     0.01     0.00    25.82R    5.44  
Boreham_Wood     18   16   -5      -3.69    28.18     2.44    47.56     8.02   -15.08     0.00     0.03     0.01P   26.89R    6.24  
Torquay          18   15  -14      -7.84     9.81   -10.64    52.42     8.04   -16.14     0.00     0.16     0.03P   11.35R    2.02  
Southport        17   14  -12      -2.97    30.51    -2.11    43.88     7.71   -27.45     0.00     0.00     0.00    45.20R   13.60  
Halifax          18   10  -24     -10.63     3.08   -16.64    39.29     7.73   -40.07     0.00     0.00     0.00    69.29R   34.13  
Kidderminster    18    8  -13     -13.53     0.76    -8.13    40.31     7.74   -22.58     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.06R   26.15