Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 16 October 2015 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 4 October 2015, Arsenal 3 0 Man_Utd; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Man_City          8   18  +12       0.88    57.17     1.56    82.84     7.89    52.88    69.77    87.75    94.71    97.45    99.46     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal           8   16   +6       1.26    61.62     0.26    73.24     8.33    31.38    15.97    48.12    68.07    80.17    92.63     0.00R    0.00  
Man_Utd           8   16   +4       1.66    66.23    -1.23    69.33     8.49    22.54     7.79    27.58    48.64    64.25    83.64     0.01R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace    8   15   +4       5.50    92.69     6.36    53.32     8.36    -0.14     0.11     0.87     2.75     6.32    18.28     1.34R    0.06  
Leicester         8   15   +2       4.21    85.26     2.48    50.70     8.52    -8.37     0.08     0.47     1.64     3.83    11.68     2.88R    0.24  
West_Ham          8   14   +6       2.70    76.31     5.83    54.85     8.58     5.31     0.18     1.51     4.65     9.58    24.53     0.87R    0.08  
Everton           8   13   +4       1.76    67.30     3.63    61.03     8.55    14.15     1.07     6.25    15.13    26.74    51.32     0.13R    0.02  
Tottenham         8   13   +4       1.12    61.29     2.81    60.12     8.64    12.88     0.93     5.49    13.22    23.48    46.66     0.18R    0.01  
Southampton       8   12   +3      -0.68    43.10     0.47    59.19     8.58    11.82     0.74     4.45    10.83    20.16    42.62     0.21R    0.02  
Liverpool         8   12   -2      -0.37    46.31    -4.14    58.34     8.64     5.45     0.59     3.37     9.00    17.23    37.59     0.39R    0.03  
Swansea           8   10   +0      -0.36    46.93     0.98    50.08     8.46    -2.12     0.05     0.40     1.28     3.09    10.32     3.26R    0.37  
Watford           8   10   -1       1.07    62.12     2.50    42.87     8.71   -14.39     0.00     0.07     0.24     0.66     2.61    16.82R    3.05  
Norwich           8    9   -2      -0.81    43.14    -0.06    41.59     8.65   -17.35     0.01     0.05     0.16     0.45     1.86    21.02R    4.14  
Stoke             8    9   -2      -1.79    32.77    -1.69    46.40     8.23    -7.63     0.01     0.12     0.48     1.18     4.66     7.02R    0.88  
Bournemouth       8    8   -2      -1.83    33.38    -0.03    37.37     8.42   -23.07     0.00     0.01     0.04     0.12     0.64    37.64R    9.67  
Chelsea           8    8   -5      -5.84     6.63    -9.27    65.04     8.40    20.32     2.70    13.45    29.05    44.96    69.61     0.03R    0.00  
West_Brom         8    8   -5      -0.42    47.46    -1.16    42.44     8.18   -15.65     0.00     0.03     0.10     0.30     1.64    17.00R    2.68  
Aston_Villa       8    4   -5      -4.47    10.81    -1.18    31.63     7.78   -27.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.04    65.44R   25.73  
Sunderland        8    3  -10      -5.00     7.71    -5.37    29.76     7.64   -33.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    74.62R   35.97  
Newcastle         8    3  -11      -3.36    16.00    -2.76    34.52     8.12   -27.11     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.01     0.18    51.14R   17.06  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Friday 16 October 2015, Bristol_City 2 0 Nott'm_Forest; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Brighton        10   22   +6       7.53    95.75     4.71    73.42     9.45     9.80     6.59    14.90    51.80    22.65P    0.22R    0.02  
Middlesbrough   10   20  +10       2.31    69.63     4.12    81.88     9.56    28.39    28.48    46.85    83.40    58.10P    0.01R    0.00  
Reading         10   18   +9       4.00    81.47     8.49    70.42     9.81    13.75     4.28    10.53    41.17    17.30P    0.64R    0.08  
Birmingham      10   18   +6       4.14    82.51     5.76    66.56     9.66     4.99     1.81     4.98    26.29     9.02P    1.70R    0.19  
Hull            10   18   +6       0.98    58.33     1.16    78.77     9.96    22.54    18.52    34.00    73.00    46.20P    0.05R    0.01  
Burnley         10   18   +3       1.85    65.52    -0.56    74.16    10.14    13.34     9.13    18.89    55.29    28.57P    0.28R    0.04  
Derby           10   17   +5      -0.00    49.58     0.10    78.12     9.85    23.02    16.64    31.85    71.26    43.49P    0.07R    0.02  
Cardiff         10   16   +3       2.00    67.59     2.46    66.08     9.71     4.37     1.60     4.42    24.59     8.65P    1.99R    0.29  
Wolverhampton   10   15   +4      -0.76    43.44     0.92    71.42     9.83    14.73     5.16    12.26    45.42    21.35P    0.55R    0.06  
Sheff_Wed       10   15   +1       1.88    67.12     1.70    61.49     9.56    -2.59     0.49     1.58    12.36     3.70P    5.28R    0.94  
QPR             10   15   -2      -0.16    48.67    -4.18    67.45    10.59     2.48     3.13     7.62    30.52    12.86P    2.27R    0.35  
Ipswich         10   15   -2       0.51    54.88    -3.17    66.70     9.99     1.48     2.10     5.37    26.77    10.37P    2.08R    0.33  
Fulham          10   12   +1      -1.10    41.09     2.06    58.84    10.10    -3.95     0.40     1.22     9.16     2.67P   10.36R    2.25  
Nott'm_Forest   11   12   -3      -2.63    29.43    -2.39    58.37     9.54    -5.38     0.18     0.68     7.09     2.08P    9.75R    2.03  
Blackburn       10   11   +2      -3.46    22.15     0.85    63.86     9.79     7.44     0.98     2.95    19.20     6.94P    3.41R    0.55  
Leeds_United    10   11   -4      -0.50    46.94    -0.83    54.69     9.42   -11.82     0.04     0.22     3.19     0.73P   17.99R    4.43  
Charlton        10   10   -3      -1.95    33.63    -0.50    53.80     9.45   -10.49     0.06     0.23     2.86     0.74P   20.26R    5.22  
Huddersfield    10   10   -4      -1.24    40.11    -0.20    51.55     9.53   -16.00     0.05     0.14     1.68     0.39P   28.77R    8.95  
Bristol_City    11   10   -6      -3.68    22.31    -3.68    52.62    10.01   -14.98     0.08     0.27     2.88     0.80P   25.89R    8.10  
MK_Dons         10    8   -5      -4.51    15.83    -3.12    52.16    10.27   -13.07     0.07     0.24     2.90     0.84P   27.47R    8.73  
Brentford       10    8   -7      -5.03    12.68    -5.80    56.87    10.00    -7.99     0.19     0.63     6.05     1.84P   14.01R    3.53  
Rotherham       10    8   -7      -2.24    31.01    -1.54    43.26     9.05   -29.35     0.00     0.01     0.17     0.03P   63.48R   33.04  
Bolton          10    8   -7      -3.29    22.81    -3.38    51.31     9.57   -15.90     0.02     0.08     1.53     0.36P   29.37R    9.39  
Preston         10    7   -6      -4.48    14.95    -2.97    49.89     9.76   -14.83     0.02     0.08     1.42     0.31P   34.11R   11.46  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 10 October 2015, Barnsley 1 2 Crewe; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Walsall          12   25  +12       6.03    89.12     8.29    77.94     9.26    21.29    19.33    34.63    72.71    44.88P    0.15R    0.00  
Burton_Albion    12   25   +4       9.52    97.13     5.27    70.92     9.72     3.31     6.02    12.99    42.62    18.73P    1.74R    0.11  
Gillingham       12   24  +12       5.41    85.71     8.81    77.01     9.73    21.65    18.47    32.24    68.73    41.01P    0.30R    0.01  
Bury             12   23   +6       6.89    91.29     6.67    69.27    10.05     4.95     5.03    10.80    37.43    16.31P    3.10R    0.24  
Coventry         11   22  +10       5.19    86.19     7.38    75.33     9.84    17.92    14.00    26.17    61.96    34.78P    0.58R    0.03  
Sheff_Utd        12   20   +3       0.81    56.18    -1.05    74.70     9.52    15.04    11.88    23.30    59.56    33.46P    0.56R    0.05  
Southend         12   18   +1       2.95    73.09     2.72    59.91     9.38    -5.15     0.48     1.48     9.62     3.11P   15.01R    1.76  
Peterborough     12   17   +3      -1.07    41.82     0.59    69.43     9.66    11.63     4.65    10.64    38.82    18.07P    2.45R    0.18  
Rochdale         12   17   +2       0.01    50.66     1.33    65.96     9.75     5.15     2.43     5.97    26.09    10.70P    5.35R    0.50  
Wigan            12   17   +1      -3.15    26.47    -4.47    73.41     9.79    15.40     9.93    20.37    54.77    31.73P    0.99R    0.07  
Port_Vale        12   16   +1       0.08    51.29     1.83    60.66     9.41    -2.06     0.55     1.65    11.19     3.66P   13.12R    1.42  
Colchester       12   16   -3       1.32    61.30     0.22    57.24     9.46   -12.26     0.25     0.78     6.14     1.80P   23.67R    3.91  
Barnsley         11   14   -1      -2.11    33.23    -2.46    64.07     9.75     1.97     1.61     4.05    20.07     8.07P    7.78R    0.81  
Shrewsbury       12   14   -2      -2.50    31.79    -2.09    58.01     9.57    -5.75     0.33     1.04     7.34     2.55P   20.52R    3.01  
Scunthorpe       12   14   -2      -1.54    38.65    -0.50    55.87     9.50    -9.83     0.16     0.52     4.89     1.42P   27.87R    4.85  
Chesterfield     12   14   -3      -3.07    27.25    -3.87    63.13     9.56     0.56     1.03     2.90    17.11     6.52P    8.88R    0.97  
Millwall         11   14   -4      -1.32    40.05    -4.23    63.50    10.27    -2.07     1.67     4.18    19.31     7.96P   10.32R    1.27  
Bradford         11   13   -4      -1.24    40.49    -2.71    59.41     9.50    -6.10     0.43     1.25     9.07     2.96P   16.84R    2.35  
Swindon          12   12   -3      -6.88     8.43    -6.62    63.53     9.62     4.22     1.33     3.60    18.89     8.06P    8.21R    0.89  
Doncaster        11   11   -5      -3.29    24.39    -3.84    57.92     9.63    -6.45     0.25     0.85     7.30     2.40P   21.10R    3.49  
Oldham           12   11   -6      -3.27    25.57    -2.65    51.58     9.25   -15.42     0.03     0.14     1.66     0.45P   44.34R   11.08  
Blackpool        11   11   -8      -2.10    34.28    -5.01    54.10     9.92   -15.19     0.12     0.39     3.68     1.14P   35.86R    8.58  
Fleetwood_Town   12    9   -6      -5.40    13.01    -2.89    49.08     9.13   -15.77     0.02     0.05     0.85     0.19P   54.88R   16.44  
Crewe            12    9   -8      -2.92    27.52    -0.71    43.88     8.93   -27.02     0.00     0.01     0.19     0.05P   76.36R   37.97  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 11 October 2015, Exeter 3 3 Stevenage; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Plymouth             12   26  +11       6.32    90.42     6.27    81.59     9.27    24.17    22.26    55.75    85.96    63.99P    0.00R    0.00  
Portsmouth           12   23   +9       4.63    82.41     6.06    74.82     9.47    16.66     7.69    27.99    64.02    36.82P    0.04R    0.01  
Oxford_Utd           12   23   +8       5.13    85.09     5.88    75.10     9.36    16.18     7.80    28.37    65.45    37.67P    0.04R    0.01  
Mansfield            12   22  +11       6.10    89.29    11.67    67.06     9.27     8.87     1.50     8.38    32.35    13.01P    0.41R    0.08  
Accrington_Stanley   12   22   +6       6.23    89.13     7.15    67.93     9.45     4.60     1.86     9.63    35.08    14.30P    0.49R    0.13  
Wycombe              11   21   +8       2.94    73.27     3.60    77.72     9.58    20.96    12.54    39.82    74.58    49.88P    0.02R    0.00  
Leyton_Orient        12   21   +6      -1.80    35.36    -3.98    84.04     9.72    31.56    34.50    66.40    89.83    74.66P    0.00R    0.00  
Northampton          12   21   +4       3.89    78.21     3.06    70.19     9.66     7.69     2.87    14.35    44.71    21.25P    0.28R    0.09  
Carlisle             12   19   +0       2.78    71.27     0.78    61.21     9.52    -8.09     0.37     2.81    14.40     4.99P    2.58R    0.79  
Luton                12   18   +6      -0.63    45.12     2.81    70.05     9.62    14.12     3.32    14.91    45.41    23.26P    0.30R    0.06  
Exeter               12   18   +0       1.56    62.72     0.27    63.99     9.65    -1.49     0.72     4.85    22.18     8.62P    1.49R    0.43  
Morecambe            12   17   +0       0.84    57.25     0.60    63.21     9.57    -1.26     0.62     3.94    19.74     7.36P    1.80R    0.54  
Bristol_Rovers       11   16   +2       1.74    65.04     2.99    63.63     9.97     2.00     0.85     4.94    21.98     8.80P    1.72R    0.49  
AFC_Wimbledon        12   16   -1       0.95    58.45     1.04    59.29     9.33    -6.05     0.24     1.59    10.07     3.22P    3.81R    1.30  
Cambridge_Utd        12   14   -3      -0.64    45.96    -0.01    54.58     9.33   -12.74     0.05     0.53     4.31     1.28P   10.13R    3.75  
Notts_County         12   14   -5      -3.77    23.15    -6.89    67.31    10.04     5.08     1.99     9.86    34.12    17.15P    0.93R    0.30  
Hartlepool           12   13   -7      -0.01    51.49    -1.76    48.27     8.82   -24.32     0.01     0.05     0.82     0.18P   27.78R   12.77  
Crawley_Town         12   12   -6      -4.67    17.84    -6.34    62.46     9.98    -0.30     0.63     3.97    18.67     8.08P    2.59R    0.80  
York                 12   11   -3      -4.74    16.47    -2.12    54.39     9.15    -7.35     0.03     0.38     3.77     1.18P    9.85R    3.74  
Stevenage            12   10   -7      -7.05     7.45    -7.79    55.85     9.44    -8.33     0.08     0.69     5.69     1.98P    7.77R    2.98  
Barnet               12   10   -8      -2.48    31.48    -1.51    46.71     9.40   -23.92     0.01     0.05     0.73     0.16P   34.92R   18.54  
Yeovil               12    9   -7      -7.36     6.97    -6.88    54.42     9.85    -8.74     0.07     0.64     4.86     1.76P   11.49R    4.72  
Dag_&_Red            12    8   -9      -6.26     9.46    -5.32    49.15     9.27   -17.88     0.01     0.09     1.18     0.37P   24.43R   11.35  
Newport_County       12    6  -15      -6.91     6.13    -9.58    41.77     8.82   -31.43     0.00     0.01     0.12     0.03P   57.13R   37.12  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 14 October 2015, Wrexham 3 3 Guiseley; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Forest_Green     17   35  +14       5.20    80.99     3.92    84.89     8.25    29.64    20.85    80.43    35.19P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham       17   33  +17       0.63    53.23     3.05    89.10     8.10    42.50    42.75    91.94    59.03P    0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic   17   30   +8       4.09    75.29     4.24    72.23     8.26    11.54     1.38    24.74     5.40P    0.02R    0.00  
Grimsby          17   29  +20      -4.02    23.97     5.00    83.69     8.01    43.05    18.38    78.69    39.24P    0.00     0.00  
Bromley          17   29   +9       5.42    80.48     9.22    71.91     8.98    13.32     1.77    26.10     5.46P    0.06R    0.00  
Braintree_Town   17   29   +7       4.06    75.67     4.53    71.25     8.02    10.92     0.85    20.50     4.34P    0.03R    0.00  
Tranmere         17   27   +9      -4.64    21.40    -3.83    79.96     8.39    28.98     8.91    62.21    26.07P    0.00     0.00  
Eastleigh        16   27   +3       2.25    64.67    -1.16    72.05     8.63     8.72     1.58    24.83     5.71P    0.06R    0.00  
Gateshead        17   27   +0       3.22    70.44    -0.46    69.86     8.26     4.53     0.59    16.17     3.15P    0.09R    0.00  
Lincoln_City     16   26   +6       3.85    74.83     5.88    68.07     8.57     6.92     0.50    13.06     2.48P    0.19R    0.01  
Macclesfield     17   26   +6       0.02    50.13     2.16    69.62     8.21    11.84     0.56    16.44     3.71P    0.05R    0.00  
Aldershot        17   26   -2       3.68    73.69    -0.33    65.65     8.31    -2.47     0.19     7.13     1.22P    0.39R    0.03  
Wrexham          17   25   +6      -0.91    44.15     2.16    68.71     8.30    11.75     0.54    14.55     3.40P    0.11R    0.01  
Woking           16   24   +7      -1.61    38.79     1.31    70.78     8.59    15.34     1.17    21.67     5.41P    0.08R    0.01  
Barrow           17   24  -11       7.07    88.98    -0.24    53.33     8.21   -27.73     0.00     0.31     0.02P   11.01R    1.71  
Chester          17   22   -6       3.24    72.07     1.61    56.82     8.10   -14.53     0.01     0.65     0.09P    4.77R    0.56  
Welling          17   21   -3       0.97    57.69     1.91    54.87     7.83   -12.06     0.00     0.28     0.03P    6.16R    0.77  
Guiseley         17   19  -10       1.36    60.62    -1.22    45.79     7.92   -31.07     0.00     0.01     0.00P   37.83R   10.45  
Altrincham       17   18  -13       1.08    59.34    -2.78    47.41     7.66   -29.89     0.00     0.03     0.00P   29.18R    6.80  
Boreham_Wood     17   15   -5      -3.35    29.21     2.44    48.17     8.28   -14.88     0.00     0.07     0.01P   25.92R    6.22  
Torquay          17   14  -14      -7.71     9.48   -10.99    51.97     8.29   -17.45     0.00     0.17     0.03P   13.46R    2.62  
Southport        16   11  -13      -4.63    19.57    -2.92    41.60     7.91   -29.72     0.00     0.00     0.00    57.28R   23.68  
Halifax          17   10  -23      -9.60     4.44   -16.20    40.80     8.00   -38.95     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.74R   28.45  
Kidderminster    17    8  -12     -12.31     1.18    -7.30    42.63     8.00   -20.30     0.00     0.00     0.00    50.57R   18.67