Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 8 October 2015 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 4 October 2015, Arsenal 3 0 Man_Utd; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Man_City          8   18  +12       0.85    57.03     1.51    82.87     7.87    53.09    69.84    87.67    94.69    97.55    99.45     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal           8   16   +6       1.32    62.27     0.32    73.16     8.35    31.25    15.74    47.54    67.77    80.09    92.47     0.01R    0.00  
Man_Utd           8   16   +4       1.63    65.91    -1.24    69.37     8.56    22.56     8.00    27.90    48.51    64.33    83.64     0.00R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace    8   15   +4       5.48    92.71     6.35    53.47     8.33     0.03     0.10     0.90     2.87     6.36    18.41     1.22R    0.10  
Leicester         8   15   +2       4.21    85.58     2.50    50.58     8.51    -8.57     0.07     0.50     1.62     3.78    11.41     3.06R    0.27  
West_Ham          8   14   +6       2.68    75.97     5.80    54.85     8.49     5.29     0.20     1.49     4.58     9.30    24.14     0.80R    0.05  
Everton           8   13   +4       1.77    67.47     3.66    61.05     8.52    14.19     0.96     6.20    15.08    26.45    51.32     0.11R    0.00  
Tottenham         8   13   +4       1.14    61.35     2.82    60.23     8.66    13.02     0.99     5.61    13.53    24.01    47.53     0.22R    0.02  
Southampton       8   12   +3      -0.64    43.49     0.54    58.99     8.57    11.58     0.67     4.22    10.65    19.62    41.85     0.27R    0.03  
Liverpool         8   12   -2      -0.43    45.46    -4.25    58.43     8.71     5.59     0.64     3.67     9.34    17.60    37.91     0.37R    0.02  
Swansea           8   10   +0      -0.37    46.99     0.97    50.17     8.51    -2.00     0.06     0.45     1.40     3.21    10.63     3.35R    0.33  
Watford           8   10   -1       1.06    62.17     2.52    42.94     8.57   -14.29     0.01     0.06     0.23     0.61     2.53    16.07R    2.81  
Norwich           8    9   -2      -0.67    44.37     0.15    41.17     8.50   -18.04     0.01     0.03     0.12     0.36     1.54    22.11R    4.45  
Stoke             8    9   -2      -1.81    32.71    -1.70    46.39     8.28    -7.66     0.01     0.11     0.43     1.21     4.66     7.24R    0.94  
Bournemouth       8    8   -2      -1.85    33.16    -0.04    37.43     8.40   -23.04     0.00     0.01     0.03     0.09     0.60    37.14R    9.56  
Chelsea           8    8   -5      -5.81     6.66    -9.27    64.99     8.47    20.19     2.71    13.60    28.98    45.01    69.89     0.03R    0.00  
West_Brom         8    8   -5      -0.50    46.65    -1.25    42.53     8.19   -15.50     0.00     0.04     0.15     0.41     1.79    16.58R    2.75  
Aston_Villa       8    4   -5      -4.41    10.92    -1.13    31.61     7.68   -27.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.05    65.71R   25.87  
Sunderland        8    3  -10      -5.08     7.34    -5.48    29.97     7.61   -33.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    73.84R   34.95  
Newcastle         8    3  -11      -3.34    15.89    -2.77    34.44     8.25   -27.23     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.02     0.17    51.85R   17.84  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 4 October 2015, Charlton 2 2 Fulham; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Brighton        10   22   +6       7.53    95.86     4.70    73.57     9.44     9.94     6.96    15.48    51.88    23.12P    0.19R    0.02  
Middlesbrough   10   20  +10       2.29    69.50     4.11    81.75     9.61    28.19    27.71    46.15    82.63    57.60P    0.02R    0.00  
Reading         10   18   +9       4.00    81.52     8.46    70.04     9.72    13.23     3.81     9.56    39.34    15.82P    0.64R    0.09  
Birmingham      10   18   +6       4.20    82.46     5.84    66.37     9.77     4.69     1.84     5.02    25.57     9.13P    1.78R    0.24  
Hull            10   18   +6       1.03    58.76     1.23    78.76     9.93    22.53    18.64    33.90    72.82    46.06P    0.04R    0.00  
Burnley         10   18   +3       1.75    64.94    -0.71    74.32    10.03    13.58     9.00    18.77    55.54    28.78P    0.24R    0.03  
Derby           10   17   +5       0.04    49.97     0.17    78.00     9.87    22.79    16.48    31.30    70.60    42.78P    0.07R    0.00  
Cardiff         10   16   +3       1.97    67.25     2.44    66.26     9.71     4.60     1.76     4.69    24.99     9.06P    1.76R    0.22  
Wolverhampton   10   15   +4      -0.71    43.72     0.99    71.38     9.87    14.67     5.35    12.43    44.96    20.98P    0.51R    0.06  
Sheff_Wed       10   15   +1       1.88    67.19     1.68    61.53     9.52    -2.58     0.48     1.59    12.14     3.73P    5.02R    0.75  
QPR             10   15   -2      -0.17    48.61    -4.21    67.86    10.66     3.05     3.48     8.10    32.04    13.59P    2.05R    0.35  
Ipswich         10   15   -2       0.45    54.28    -3.25    66.79     9.96     1.68     2.16     5.52    26.60    10.31P    2.00R    0.31  
Fulham          10   12   +1      -1.07    41.44     2.13    58.79    10.07    -4.02     0.38     1.13     8.86     2.58P   10.11R    2.18  
Nott'm_Forest   10   12   -1      -1.61    36.45    -0.92    60.83     9.88    -1.72     0.52     1.59    11.71     3.72P    6.50R    1.16  
Blackburn       10   11   +2      -3.45    22.28     0.88    63.76     9.84     7.30     1.00     2.95    18.89     6.92P    3.47R    0.56  
Leeds_United    10   11   -4      -0.57    46.14    -0.92    54.62     9.47   -11.94     0.04     0.25     3.16     0.82P   17.81R    4.55  
Charlton        10   10   -3      -1.94    33.40    -0.49    53.92     9.51   -10.27     0.06     0.24     2.97     0.74P   19.42R    4.91  
Huddersfield    10   10   -4      -1.18    40.47    -0.15    51.55     9.54   -15.99     0.03     0.14     1.76     0.44P   27.98R    8.46  
MK_Dons         10    8   -5      -4.58    15.42    -3.20    52.01    10.24   -13.21     0.09     0.23     2.80     0.77P   27.41R    8.52  
Brentford       10    8   -7      -5.07    12.83    -5.90    56.88    10.01    -7.94     0.15     0.66     6.05     1.87P   13.57R    3.39  
Rotherham       10    8   -7      -2.23    31.28    -1.53    43.57     9.20   -28.84     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.05P   61.17R   30.88  
Bolton          10    8   -7      -3.30    22.86    -3.34    51.41     9.51   -15.75     0.02     0.10     1.54     0.41P   28.18R    8.77  
Preston         10    7   -6      -4.52    14.82    -3.06    49.93     9.79   -14.69     0.02     0.08     1.35     0.36P   33.86R   11.06  
Bristol_City    10    7   -8      -4.86    13.84    -4.94    49.64    10.21   -19.29     0.02     0.12     1.62     0.39P   36.22R   13.49  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 3 October 2015, Blackpool 1 0 Swindon; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Burton_Albion    11   25   +6      10.22    98.36     6.35    72.84     9.89     6.23     9.80    18.93    50.58    25.09P    1.19R    0.05  
Walsall          11   22  +10       4.97    85.90     7.05    75.44     9.47    18.09    14.49    26.98    63.12    36.24P    0.39R    0.01  
Bury             11   22   +6       7.17    93.10     6.57    69.16    10.27     4.36     5.99    12.05    37.10    17.01P    3.29R    0.20  
Gillingham       11   21  +10       4.22    81.02     7.54    74.30    10.01    17.91    13.61    24.83    58.19    32.92P    0.76R    0.04  
Coventry         10   19   +9       3.81    79.89     6.75    73.23    10.08    16.15    11.38    21.64    53.80    29.34P    1.15R    0.08  
Rochdale         11   17   +3       0.93    57.86     1.64    67.30     9.78     6.16     3.64     8.19    30.70    13.36P    4.10R    0.27  
Sheff_Utd        11   17   +2      -0.23    48.22    -1.19    73.05     9.67    14.03    10.11    19.97    53.35    29.53P    1.08R    0.04  
Port_Vale        11   16   +2       1.19    60.63     2.46    62.52     9.61    -0.34     1.19     2.97    15.67     5.75P   10.01R    0.92  
Wigan            11   16   +1      -2.63    29.11    -4.26    74.04    10.08    15.73    13.08    24.09    57.03    35.01P    0.99R    0.06  
Colchester       11   16   -1       2.18    68.20     1.33    59.29     9.66    -8.93     0.59     1.63     9.33     3.18P   17.92R    2.13  
Southend         11   15   +0       1.57    63.94     2.14    57.22     9.68    -7.79     0.36     1.01     6.66     2.17P   23.30R    3.05  
Peterborough     11   14   +2      -2.55    30.32    -0.23    66.72     9.86     8.87     3.30     7.52    29.14    13.31P    4.72R    0.35  
Barnsley         10   14   +0      -0.49    46.34    -1.05    67.25     9.97     5.71     3.73     8.50    30.59    14.08P    4.38R    0.28  
Chesterfield     11   14   -1      -1.99    34.16    -2.33    65.93     9.77     4.79     2.51     6.13    25.80    11.25P    5.56R    0.39  
Millwall         11   14   -4      -1.31    40.02    -4.19    63.21    10.30    -2.52     1.72     4.35    18.80     8.01P   10.66R    1.12  
Bradford         11   13   -4      -1.11    41.43    -2.59    59.48     9.54    -5.95     0.49     1.34     9.27     3.15P   16.27R    2.03  
Swindon          11   12   -2      -5.51    12.40    -5.65    65.94     9.87     6.86     2.90     6.78    26.82    12.79P    5.51R    0.44  
Oldham           11   11   -4      -2.16    32.72    -1.13    54.09     9.44   -11.42     0.09     0.37     3.30     0.93P   33.77R    5.98  
Shrewsbury       11   11   -4      -3.46    23.47    -3.22    55.63     9.79    -8.55     0.29     0.78     5.15     1.93P   28.66R    4.52  
Scunthorpe       11   11   -4      -2.85    27.72    -2.10    52.87     9.53   -13.74     0.10     0.29     2.64     0.75P   39.23R    7.56  
Doncaster        11   11   -5      -3.31    24.27    -3.94    58.00     9.56    -6.27     0.40     1.03     7.22     2.50P   20.60R    2.86  
Blackpool        11   11   -8      -2.15    33.55    -5.15    54.35     9.96   -14.83     0.18     0.51     4.10     1.26P   34.97R    6.94  
Fleetwood_Town   11    9   -5      -4.44    16.99    -2.51    50.89     9.36   -14.13     0.05     0.14     1.56     0.42P   46.84R   10.73  
Crewe            11    6   -9      -4.87    13.16    -2.27    40.75     9.01   -30.43     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.01P   84.65R   49.97  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 3 October 2015, AFC_Wimbledon 2 0 Barnet; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Plymouth             11   23   +9       5.13    86.56     4.89    78.71     9.43    20.34    14.04    45.27    79.50    54.75P    0.02R    0.00  
Wycombe              11   21   +8       2.94    73.31     3.58    77.72     9.56    20.91    11.80    41.59    76.36    51.62P    0.01R    0.01  
Leyton_Orient        11   21   +7      -0.34    45.79    -2.80    87.12     9.82    35.02    48.23    77.91    94.44    83.76P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           11   20   +7       3.49    76.95     4.81    72.22     9.74    13.21     4.94    21.62    55.08    29.89P    0.17R    0.03  
Oxford_Utd           11   20   +7       3.85    79.17     5.37    73.25     9.46    14.87     5.42    24.07    60.10    33.12P    0.08R    0.02  
Mansfield            11   19   +8       5.16    86.56     9.67    64.36     9.52     4.36     0.86     5.69    25.08     9.54P    1.42R    0.44  
Accrington_Stanley   11   19   +5       4.85    84.56     6.48    65.92     9.80     3.06     1.43     8.08    30.18    12.44P    1.17R    0.39  
Carlisle             11   19   +1       4.07    80.37     1.57    63.23     9.92    -5.99     0.81     5.25    21.79     8.23P    2.34R    0.75  
Northampton          11   18   +3       2.81    72.34     2.87    68.66     9.82     6.84     2.21    12.65    40.78    19.03P    0.57R    0.16  
Luton                11   17   +6      -0.01    49.99     3.16    70.76     9.73    14.66     3.83    18.40    50.20    26.89P    0.33R    0.08  
Exeter               11   17   +0       2.08    67.30     0.44    64.49     9.84    -1.16     0.97     6.25    25.46    10.34P    1.73R    0.57  
Bristol_Rovers       11   16   +2       1.73    65.18     3.01    63.46     9.80     1.80     0.69     4.98    22.42     8.93P    2.11R    0.68  
AFC_Wimbledon        11   16   +0       1.94    66.76     1.50    60.43     9.42    -5.31     0.29     2.37    13.43     4.49P    3.83R    1.30  
Morecambe            11   14   -1      -0.51    46.67    -0.01    60.94     9.79    -3.25     0.41     2.96    15.87     5.86P    3.99R    1.38  
Cambridge_Utd        11   14   -1       0.31    53.64     1.26    56.80     9.56    -9.22     0.10     1.12     7.73     2.52P    7.89R    3.09  
Notts_County         11   14   -3      -2.87    28.06    -5.60    69.73    10.25     8.67     3.38    16.37    45.57    25.22P    0.57R    0.19  
Hartlepool           11   13   -6       0.87    59.01    -1.60    49.53     9.05   -23.34     0.01     0.13     1.33     0.36P   26.25R   12.64  
York                 11   10   -3      -4.48    16.81    -2.24    54.21     9.34    -8.14     0.04     0.53     4.51     1.39P   12.06R    4.98  
Barnet               11   10   -7      -1.48    39.02    -1.13    48.66     9.75   -21.94     0.02     0.13     1.56     0.41P   31.02R   16.98  
Stevenage            11    9   -7      -6.66     7.66    -7.75    56.26     9.68    -8.16     0.10     1.00     7.23     2.60P    8.84R    3.55  
Crawley_Town         11    9   -7      -6.34     9.00    -7.46    59.36    10.23    -3.47     0.35     2.55    13.46     5.70P    6.18R    2.37  
Yeovil               11    8   -7      -6.84     7.16    -6.72    54.77    10.01    -8.63     0.09     0.93     6.08     2.40P   12.72R    5.70  
Dag_&_Red            11    7   -9      -5.97     9.52    -5.51    49.10     9.53   -18.40     0.01     0.12     1.52     0.45P   27.90R   14.31  
Newport_County       11    6  -12      -6.30     7.62    -7.80    44.07     9.15   -26.73     0.00     0.02     0.31     0.08P   48.83R   30.38  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 7 October 2015, Aldershot 0 3 Forest_Green; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Forest_Green     15   32  +12       5.94    85.81     3.60    84.81     8.67    27.76    19.09    79.97    33.28P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham       15   29  +16       0.30    51.22     3.46    88.82     8.63    42.92    37.48    90.49    55.28P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         15   27  +11      -1.50    38.13    -1.33    86.25     8.70    36.71    25.02    84.71    45.68P    0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic   15   27   +8       3.59    73.77     3.89    71.85     8.78    11.35     1.37    25.93     5.65P    0.07R    0.00  
Bromley          15   26   +5       6.55    86.71     7.43    69.29     9.59     5.19     1.08    19.37     3.65P    0.45R    0.05  
Gateshead        15   26   +1       4.42    78.40    -0.30    71.24     8.79     4.91     1.09    23.12     4.60P    0.10R    0.01  
Grimsby          15   25  +13      -3.00    28.78     1.72    81.32     8.50    34.00    10.80    69.54    28.90P    0.00R    0.00  
Braintree_Town   15   25   +6       2.78    69.62     3.55    69.52     8.54     9.20     0.63    17.64     3.72P    0.11R    0.00  
Wrexham          15   24   +7       1.04    57.40     3.46    71.63     8.75    14.54     1.20    25.57     6.00P    0.08R    0.00  
Lincoln_City     14   23   +6       3.62    75.09     5.87    68.15     9.13     7.43     0.61    15.57     2.88P    0.42R    0.04  
Eastleigh        14   21   +1      -0.90    43.71    -3.05    66.76     9.13     3.26     0.47    12.33     2.63P    0.63R    0.08  
Barrow           15   21   -7       5.05    82.30     0.63    52.81     8.76   -24.34     0.01     0.50     0.06P   16.73R    3.84  
Woking           14   20   +4      -1.72    37.78     0.25    69.26     9.15    11.89     0.84    19.09     4.54P    0.31R    0.04  
Macclesfield     15   20   +4      -2.61    32.17     1.05    66.20     8.62     9.51     0.24    10.15     2.27P    0.48R    0.05  
Aldershot        15   20   -5       1.43    60.98    -1.77    62.10     8.73    -5.96     0.05     4.18     0.63P    2.10R    0.28  
Chester          15   19   -6       3.04    72.34     1.56    56.24     8.53   -14.83     0.01     0.85     0.10P    8.14R    1.47  
Welling          15   18   -2       0.54    54.91     2.64    54.68     8.34   -10.82     0.00     0.52     0.07P    9.89R    1.78  
Guiseley         15   18   -7       1.58    62.77    -0.97    46.98     8.35   -28.16     0.00     0.09     0.02P   37.71R   12.36  
Altrincham       15   17  -11       2.11    66.95    -1.92    49.37     8.17   -27.26     0.00     0.09     0.01P   26.90R    7.29  
Boreham_Wood     15   12   -6      -3.44    27.64     1.88    47.07     8.85   -17.24     0.00     0.07     0.01P   36.02R   12.80  
Southport        14   11  -11      -2.37    33.01    -1.68    44.92     8.48   -26.68     0.00     0.03     0.00P   46.85R   18.73  
Halifax          15   10  -13      -9.74     3.58   -11.23    46.30     8.64   -23.87     0.00     0.04     0.01P   39.46R   14.21  
Torquay          15   10  -15      -8.92     5.02   -11.99    49.83     8.68   -20.13     0.00     0.12     0.02P   25.18R    7.31  
Kidderminster    15    7  -11     -10.84     1.58    -6.75    44.18     8.43   -19.38     0.00     0.02     0.00P   48.35R   19.66