Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Wednesday 7 October 2015 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 4 October 2015, Arsenal 3 0 Man_Utd; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Man_City          8   18  +12       0.90    57.47     1.60    82.85     7.89    52.96    69.35    87.71    94.64    97.49    99.39     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal           8   16   +6       1.24    61.69     0.22    73.35     8.37    31.57    16.52    48.50    68.55    80.47    92.68     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd           8   16   +4       1.67    66.22    -1.20    69.29     8.52    22.41     7.64    27.22    48.42    64.17    83.66     0.01R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace    8   15   +4       5.45    92.25     6.29    53.57     8.30     0.22     0.16     0.96     2.99     6.57    18.58     1.05R    0.07  
Leicester         8   15   +2       4.23    85.67     2.50    50.67     8.52    -8.42     0.07     0.43     1.65     3.89    11.86     3.03R    0.23  
West_Ham          8   14   +6       2.66    76.20     5.80    54.82     8.53     5.30     0.20     1.40     4.41     9.39    24.14     0.81R    0.08  
Everton           8   13   +4       1.77    67.56     3.66    61.05     8.61    14.23     1.06     6.55    15.42    26.75    51.31     0.14R    0.01  
Tottenham         8   13   +4       1.14    61.48     2.83    60.15     8.67    12.93     0.85     5.35    13.39    23.47    46.76     0.20R    0.01  
Southampton       8   12   +3      -0.69    43.20     0.45    59.18     8.54    11.90     0.78     4.23    10.65    20.14    42.63     0.28R    0.02  
Liverpool         8   12   -2      -0.40    45.90    -4.22    58.36     8.78     5.48     0.65     3.54     9.21    17.45    37.86     0.40R    0.03  
Swansea           8   10   +0      -0.32    47.84     1.03    49.92     8.46    -2.39     0.05     0.32     1.18     2.98    10.14     3.49R    0.33  
Watford           8   10   -1       1.02    61.65     2.44    42.94     8.59   -14.23     0.01     0.07     0.26     0.67     2.47    16.15R    2.84  
Norwich           8    9   -2      -0.73    43.73     0.07    41.40     8.62   -17.69     0.00     0.05     0.17     0.43     1.78    21.53R    4.27  
Stoke             8    9   -2      -1.79    32.73    -1.68    46.39     8.23    -7.65     0.01     0.11     0.42     1.11     4.56     7.12R    0.85  
Bournemouth       8    8   -2      -1.82    33.47     0.02    37.27     8.42   -23.38     0.00     0.01     0.04     0.12     0.55    37.93R    9.79  
Chelsea           8    8   -5      -5.83     6.83    -9.28    64.96     8.46    20.19     2.66    13.50    28.46    44.48    69.61     0.05R    0.00  
West_Brom         8    8   -5      -0.47    46.82    -1.22    42.50     8.26   -15.53     0.00     0.04     0.15     0.39     1.81    16.96R    2.83  
Aston_Villa       8    4   -5      -4.45    10.86    -1.19    31.69     7.72   -26.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.04    64.77R   25.42  
Sunderland        8    3  -10      -5.02     7.58    -5.41    29.88     7.61   -33.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    73.96R   35.63  
Newcastle         8    3  -11      -3.32    16.11    -2.73    34.35     8.15   -27.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.15    52.14R   17.58  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 4 October 2015, Charlton 2 2 Fulham; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Brighton        10   22   +6       7.58    95.73     4.79    73.47     9.49     9.85     6.76    15.23    51.71    22.95P    0.19R    0.01  
Middlesbrough   10   20  +10       2.23    69.16     4.02    81.96     9.56    28.49    27.99    46.74    83.10    58.08P    0.01R    0.00  
Reading         10   18   +9       3.95    81.19     8.40    70.05     9.83    13.27     3.93     9.65    39.29    15.99P    0.69R    0.08  
Birmingham      10   18   +6       4.18    82.78     5.79    66.25     9.79     4.54     1.74     4.70    24.92     8.66P    1.74R    0.21  
Hull            10   18   +6       1.02    58.78     1.22    78.93    10.04    22.81    19.20    34.63    73.07    46.73P    0.07R    0.00  
Burnley         10   18   +3       1.79    65.32    -0.65    73.96    10.20    13.04     8.91    18.49    54.23    27.96P    0.33R    0.03  
Derby           10   17   +5       0.02    49.81     0.14    77.80     9.82    22.50    15.68    30.38    69.82    42.17P    0.09R    0.00  
Cardiff         10   16   +3       1.93    67.03     2.37    66.59     9.79     5.08     1.82     4.93    26.15     9.37P    1.69R    0.24  
Wolverhampton   10   15   +4      -0.78    43.36     0.89    71.67     9.95    15.14     5.66    12.96    45.97    21.76P    0.45R    0.05  
Sheff_Wed       10   15   +1       1.92    67.47     1.74    61.23     9.49    -2.97     0.44     1.39    11.40     3.33P    5.22R    0.87  
QPR             10   15   -2      -0.13    48.94    -4.17    67.87    10.70     3.16     3.52     8.15    31.80    13.51P    2.14R    0.32  
Ipswich         10   15   -2       0.43    54.22    -3.31    66.73     9.90     1.55     1.97     5.23    26.53    10.09P    1.93R    0.29  
Fulham          10   12   +1      -1.03    41.70     2.18    58.90    10.10    -3.77     0.44     1.15     9.12     2.63P    9.73R    2.09  
Nott'm_Forest   10   12   -1      -1.61    36.39    -0.93    61.04     9.83    -1.43     0.48     1.52    12.07     3.82P    6.18R    1.11  
Blackburn       10   11   +2      -3.48    22.20     0.84    64.14     9.79     7.85     1.06     3.17    19.68     7.38P    3.06R    0.53  
Leeds_United    10   11   -4      -0.59    45.87    -0.96    54.57     9.43   -11.99     0.06     0.25     3.11     0.73P   17.98R    4.32  
Charlton        10   10   -3      -1.92    33.64    -0.46    54.06     9.44   -10.14     0.05     0.25     2.83     0.76P   18.88R    4.70  
Huddersfield    10   10   -4      -1.26    39.98    -0.22    51.97     9.61   -15.35     0.04     0.14     1.99     0.48P   26.50R    7.97  
MK_Dons         10    8   -5      -4.46    15.87    -3.02    51.50    10.13   -14.02     0.05     0.17     2.39     0.64P   28.57R    8.84  
Brentford       10    8   -7      -5.10    12.31    -5.91    56.77     9.97    -8.11     0.15     0.57     5.98     1.77P   13.74R    3.33  
Rotherham       10    8   -7      -2.23    31.23    -1.55    43.53     9.10   -28.91     0.00     0.01     0.20     0.04P   61.30R   30.71  
Bolton          10    8   -7      -3.27    22.93    -3.34    51.41     9.51   -15.76     0.02     0.09     1.64     0.40P   28.25R    8.67  
Preston         10    7   -6      -4.43    15.21    -2.93    49.74     9.69   -15.03     0.02     0.08     1.27     0.32P   34.01R   11.16  
Bristol_City    10    7   -8      -4.84    13.85    -4.92    49.40    10.38   -19.78     0.03     0.15     1.72     0.45P   37.25R   14.49  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 3 October 2015, Blackpool 1 0 Swindon; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Burton_Albion    11   25   +6      10.22    98.28     6.36    72.90     9.99     6.28    10.23    19.43    50.58    25.50P    1.19R    0.06  
Walsall          11   22  +10       4.96    85.79     7.07    75.44     9.41    18.10    14.61    27.45    63.38    36.76P    0.40R    0.01  
Bury             11   22   +6       7.20    92.97     6.57    69.04    10.26     4.21     5.77    11.71    36.32    16.61P    3.38R    0.19  
Gillingham       11   21  +10       4.27    81.16     7.59    74.13     9.99    17.59    13.61    24.40    57.38    32.17P    0.78R    0.04  
Coventry         10   19   +9       3.76    79.64     6.66    73.29    10.02    16.26    11.46    21.81    54.49    29.78P    1.11R    0.04  
Rochdale         11   17   +3       0.96    58.23     1.65    67.30     9.89     6.11     3.80     8.58    30.80    13.72P    4.14R    0.31  
Sheff_Utd        11   17   +2      -0.18    48.50    -1.14    72.91     9.71    13.85     9.96    19.63    52.64    29.13P    1.12R    0.05  
Port_Vale        11   16   +2       1.24    60.70     2.52    62.53     9.56    -0.32     1.09     3.06    15.80     5.81P    9.87R    0.82  
Wigan            11   16   +1      -2.60    29.00    -4.22    73.82     9.97    15.40    12.28    23.27    56.45    34.43P    1.01R    0.05  
Colchester       11   16   -1       2.29    69.21     1.49    59.06     9.62    -9.26     0.50     1.43     8.84     2.78P   18.36R    2.22  
Southend         11   15   +0       1.42    62.97     1.93    57.71     9.63    -7.03     0.38     1.14     7.18     2.35P   21.85R    2.59  
Peterborough     11   14   +2      -2.68    29.23    -0.42    67.21     9.85     9.68     3.56     8.14    31.15    14.39P    4.22R    0.35  
Barnsley         10   14   +0      -0.44    46.29    -0.99    67.22     9.98     5.73     3.84     8.32    30.82    13.90P    4.51R    0.33  
Chesterfield     11   14   -1      -1.94    34.51    -2.27    65.84     9.79     4.59     2.63     6.19    25.58    11.17P    5.58R    0.39  
Millwall         11   14   -4      -1.28    40.36    -4.16    63.14    10.19    -2.64     1.68     4.09    18.55     7.74P   10.50R    1.12  
Bradford         11   13   -4      -1.17    41.03    -2.66    59.57     9.41    -5.80     0.52     1.47     9.14     3.29P   15.97R    1.69  
Swindon          11   12   -2      -5.62    12.10    -5.81    66.22     9.88     7.37     3.16     7.05    27.57    13.03P    5.29R    0.41  
Oldham           11   11   -4      -2.23    32.65    -1.22    54.03     9.41   -11.43     0.10     0.35     3.21     1.00P   34.32R    6.06  
Shrewsbury       11   11   -4      -3.45    23.67    -3.17    55.55     9.70    -8.68     0.21     0.69     5.00     1.73P   29.12R    4.47  
Scunthorpe       11   11   -4      -2.85    27.34    -2.09    52.86     9.48   -13.80     0.09     0.27     2.60     0.71P   39.39R    7.29  
Doncaster        11   11   -5      -3.30    23.92    -3.91    57.94     9.53    -6.31     0.31     0.93     7.02     2.34P   20.77R    2.91  
Blackpool        11   11   -8      -2.19    33.29    -5.19    54.41     9.83   -14.71     0.15     0.46     3.88     1.26P   34.22R    6.70  
Fleetwood_Town   11    9   -5      -4.36    17.50    -2.39    50.81     9.34   -14.32     0.05     0.13     1.54     0.41P   47.66R   10.61  
Crewe            11    6   -9      -4.84    13.40    -2.20    40.49     9.06   -30.87     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.01P   85.25R   51.31  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 3 October 2015, AFC_Wimbledon 2 0 Barnet; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Plymouth             11   23   +9       5.14    86.49     4.90    78.54     9.56    20.12    14.06    44.82    78.52    54.10P    0.02R    0.00  
Wycombe              11   21   +8       2.95    73.44     3.62    77.71     9.60    20.88    12.13    41.51    76.06    51.49P    0.02R    0.00  
Leyton_Orient        11   21   +7      -0.35    46.04    -2.83    87.14     9.87    34.97    48.31    77.80    94.27    83.60P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           11   20   +7       3.51    77.04     4.80    72.17     9.68    13.13     4.67    21.14    55.31    29.61P    0.18R    0.04  
Oxford_Utd           11   20   +7       3.84    79.14     5.35    73.17     9.54    14.76     5.53    24.07    59.72    33.09P    0.11R    0.03  
Mansfield            11   19   +8       5.19    86.88     9.74    64.26     9.53     4.18     0.81     5.78    24.55     9.44P    1.45R    0.45  
Accrington_Stanley   11   19   +5       4.84    84.55     6.48    66.01     9.72     3.17     1.26     7.86    30.26    12.29P    1.23R    0.40  
Carlisle             11   19   +1       4.03    80.11     1.52    63.20     9.98    -5.95     0.76     5.38    21.85     8.58P    2.27R    0.71  
Northampton          11   18   +3       2.80    72.31     2.85    68.79     9.88     6.99     2.32    13.16    41.25    19.57P    0.69R    0.19  
Luton                11   17   +6      -0.08    49.40     3.09    70.90     9.76    14.87     3.91    18.55    50.74    27.32P    0.31R    0.08  
Exeter               11   17   +0       1.99    66.44     0.32    64.69     9.93    -0.84     0.99     6.63    26.35    10.80P    1.68R    0.58  
Bristol_Rovers       11   16   +2       1.69    64.67     2.92    63.69     9.74     2.12     0.63     5.24    22.94     9.36P    1.91R    0.63  
AFC_Wimbledon        11   16   +0       1.86    65.91     1.37    60.62     9.51    -5.07     0.31     2.54    14.21     4.92P    3.72R    1.35  
Morecambe            11   14   -1      -0.53    46.32    -0.04    60.87     9.84    -3.37     0.39     3.03    15.61     5.69P    4.07R    1.39  
Cambridge_Utd        11   14   -1       0.31    53.46     1.30    56.82     9.59    -9.18     0.14     1.19     7.92     2.58P    7.96R    3.05  
Notts_County         11   14   -3      -2.77    28.71    -5.45    69.59    10.27     8.48     3.24    16.03    45.13    24.59P    0.63R    0.21  
Hartlepool           11   13   -6       0.82    58.39    -1.68    49.68     9.09   -23.17     0.01     0.13     1.48     0.36P   25.73R   12.19  
York                 11   10   -3      -4.52    16.63    -2.32    54.22     9.24    -8.02     0.04     0.46     4.19     1.34P   11.70R    4.91  
Barnet               11   10   -7      -1.43    39.11    -1.03    48.54     9.84   -22.07     0.01     0.16     1.73     0.46P   31.30R   17.20  
Stevenage            11    9   -7      -6.67     7.52    -7.77    56.16     9.64    -8.25     0.08     1.00     7.01     2.60P    8.82R    3.38  
Crawley_Town         11    9   -7      -6.30     9.18    -7.40    59.29    10.14    -3.60     0.29     2.52    13.07     5.54P    6.01R    2.48  
Yeovil               11    8   -7      -6.71     7.70    -6.55    54.60    10.06    -8.92     0.10     0.87     5.94     2.20P   13.08R    5.97  
Dag_&_Red            11    7   -9      -5.99     9.40    -5.50    49.09     9.50   -18.35     0.00     0.11     1.55     0.40P   27.73R   13.99  
Newport_County       11    6  -12      -6.23     7.68    -7.69    43.98     9.04   -26.88     0.00     0.02     0.34     0.09P   49.38R   30.75  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 7 October 2015, Aldershot 0 3 Forest_Green; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Forest_Green     15   32  +12       5.87    85.17     3.47    84.99     8.76    28.01    19.21    80.53    33.46P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham       15   29  +16       0.26    50.86     3.39    88.94     8.71    43.10    37.49    90.85    55.32P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         15   27  +11      -1.64    37.37    -1.47    86.54     8.72    37.22    26.09    85.73    46.64P    0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic   15   27   +8       3.60    73.97     3.92    71.78     8.74    11.23     1.35    25.65     5.64P    0.08R    0.01  
Bromley          15   26   +5       6.65    86.93     7.61    69.13     9.54     4.96     0.98    18.80     3.47P    0.47R    0.05  
Gateshead        15   26   +1       4.61    79.34     0.01    70.85     8.74     4.32     0.91    21.63     4.17P    0.10R    0.01  
Grimsby          15   25  +13      -3.08    28.19     1.60    81.40     8.44    34.11    10.37    70.43    28.89P    0.00R    0.00  
Braintree_Town   15   25   +6       2.81    69.59     3.59    69.44     8.52     9.10     0.52    17.44     3.59P    0.17R    0.01  
Wrexham          15   24   +7       1.08    57.59     3.52    71.63     8.66    14.55     1.06    25.59     5.87P    0.10R    0.00  
Lincoln_City     14   23   +6       3.64    75.18     5.91    68.18     8.98     7.47     0.55    15.19     2.84P    0.37R    0.04  
Eastleigh        14   21   +1      -0.93    43.31    -3.10    66.79     9.09     3.25     0.44    12.37     2.58P    0.71R    0.06  
Barrow           15   21   -7       5.15    83.14     0.80    52.64     8.65   -24.65     0.01     0.38     0.06P   16.99R    3.72  
Woking           14   20   +4      -1.74    37.38     0.20    69.37     9.07    12.10     0.75    19.36     4.35P    0.24R    0.03  
Macclesfield     15   20   +4      -2.66    31.73     1.00    66.07     8.65     9.31     0.20    10.15     2.18P    0.53R    0.07  
Aldershot        15   20   -5       1.53    61.76    -1.61    61.96     8.67    -6.17     0.06     3.93     0.64P    2.11R    0.28  
Chester          15   19   -6       3.02    72.04     1.55    56.29     8.59   -14.76     0.01     0.95     0.12P    8.15R    1.60  
Welling          15   18   -2       0.47    54.67     2.52    54.81     8.36   -10.62     0.00     0.54     0.09P    9.78R    1.84  
Guiseley         15   18   -7       1.66    63.10    -0.84    46.82     8.41   -28.54     0.00     0.07     0.01P   38.83R   12.86  
Altrincham       15   17  -11       1.99    65.86    -2.17    49.68     8.24   -26.77     0.00     0.08     0.01P   25.90R    6.84  
Boreham_Wood     15   12   -6      -3.41    27.64     1.89    47.11     8.81   -17.17     0.00     0.08     0.01P   35.78R   12.51  
Southport        14   11  -11      -2.33    33.03    -1.60    44.81     8.39   -26.93     0.00     0.02     0.00P   47.15R   18.78  
Halifax          15   10  -13      -9.77     3.56   -11.25    46.36     8.64   -23.84     0.00     0.05     0.01P   39.47R   14.30  
Torquay          15   10  -15      -8.91     4.88   -12.00    49.82     8.72   -20.08     0.00     0.14     0.04P   25.26R    7.36  
Kidderminster    15    7  -11     -10.94     1.57    -6.91    44.28     8.49   -19.20     0.00     0.03     0.01P   47.79R   19.64