Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Tuesday 6 October 2015 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 4 October 2015, Arsenal 3 0 Man_Utd; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Man_City          8   18  +12       0.85    56.79     1.52    82.93     7.87    53.16    69.97    87.95    94.80    97.62    99.53     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal           8   16   +6       1.25    61.61     0.20    73.25     8.34    31.42    15.85    47.90    68.09    80.23    92.73     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd           8   16   +4       1.64    65.81    -1.25    69.45     8.45    22.70     7.74    27.88    48.93    64.80    84.27     0.00R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace    8   15   +4       5.48    92.60     6.33    53.51     8.36     0.05     0.14     0.93     2.96     6.40    18.53     1.13R    0.09  
Leicester         8   15   +2       4.26    85.79     2.56    50.68     8.51    -8.40     0.06     0.54     1.74     3.98    11.54     2.89R    0.25  
West_Ham          8   14   +6       2.72    76.72     5.88    54.69     8.65     5.06     0.20     1.55     4.55     9.47    23.90     0.91R    0.06  
Everton           8   13   +4       1.70    67.04     3.58    61.15     8.54    14.32     1.11     6.35    15.38    26.96    52.05     0.12R    0.00  
Tottenham         8   13   +4       1.18    61.73     2.88    60.06     8.71    12.76     0.90     5.41    13.38    23.73    46.69     0.26R    0.02  
Southampton       8   12   +3      -0.63    43.25     0.53    59.02     8.63    11.60     0.79     4.18    10.51    19.70    41.78     0.29R    0.02  
Liverpool         8   12   -2      -0.39    45.72    -4.15    58.29     8.69     5.38     0.58     3.47     8.96    16.94    37.52     0.41R    0.04  
Swansea           8   10   +0      -0.43    46.57     0.86    50.33     8.52    -1.79     0.06     0.41     1.38     3.36    11.04     3.23R    0.32  
Watford           8   10   -1       1.09    62.48     2.52    42.84     8.58   -14.39     0.00     0.07     0.21     0.64     2.56    16.51R    2.83  
Norwich           8    9   -2      -0.74    43.66     0.05    41.36     8.56   -17.78     0.00     0.02     0.10     0.33     1.70    21.86R    4.31  
Stoke             8    9   -2      -1.75    33.01    -1.65    46.35     8.23    -7.77     0.02     0.11     0.42     1.11     4.52     7.34R    0.93  
Bournemouth       8    8   -2      -1.90    32.97    -0.12    37.48     8.45   -22.97     0.00     0.02     0.05     0.16     0.68    37.21R    9.49  
Chelsea           8    8   -5      -5.78     6.83    -9.23    64.89     8.48    20.10     2.57    13.17    28.40    44.17    69.05     0.03R    0.00  
West_Brom         8    8   -5      -0.42    47.40    -1.13    42.29     8.20   -15.94     0.00     0.03     0.13     0.37     1.70    17.47R    2.95  
Aston_Villa       8    4   -5      -4.47    10.90    -1.22    31.79     7.73   -26.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05    64.84R   25.04  
Sunderland        8    3  -10      -5.03     7.39    -5.39    29.92     7.61   -33.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    73.74R   35.86  
Newcastle         8    3  -11      -3.35    15.90    -2.75    34.43     8.17   -27.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.14    51.75R   17.81  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 4 October 2015, Charlton 2 2 Fulham; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Brighton        10   22   +6       7.58    95.99     4.79    73.58     9.46     9.96     6.68    15.46    52.40    23.47P    0.19R    0.01  
Middlesbrough   10   20  +10       2.28    69.54     4.08    81.84     9.55    28.40    28.59    47.07    83.21    58.31P    0.01R    0.00  
Reading         10   18   +9       3.97    81.25     8.44    70.20     9.78    13.47     4.07     9.91    40.05    16.36P    0.68R    0.09  
Birmingham      10   18   +6       4.17    82.56     5.81    66.42     9.73     4.73     1.82     4.92    25.82     9.04P    1.71R    0.25  
Hull            10   18   +6       1.11    59.41     1.30    78.54    10.04    22.34    18.51    33.70    71.91    45.62P    0.07R    0.00  
Burnley         10   18   +3       1.83    65.56    -0.60    73.97    10.03    13.08     8.64    18.43    54.57    28.25P    0.26R    0.02  
Derby           10   17   +5       0.09    50.45     0.24    77.68     9.98    22.36    15.89    30.47    69.23    41.78P    0.08R    0.00  
Cardiff         10   16   +3       1.88    66.59     2.28    66.64     9.64     5.19     1.90     5.03    26.00     9.46P    1.67R    0.21  
Wolverhampton   10   15   +4      -0.74    43.77     0.97    71.39     9.89    14.67     5.59    12.69    45.10    21.18P    0.58R    0.05  
Sheff_Wed       10   15   +1       1.85    67.03     1.64    61.71     9.50    -2.27     0.56     1.69    12.68     3.83P    4.77R    0.78  
QPR             10   15   -2      -0.05    49.70    -4.00    67.39    10.55     2.34     3.10     7.45    30.23    12.91P    2.27R    0.37  
Ipswich         10   15   -2       0.44    54.38    -3.29    66.82     9.94     1.68     2.19     5.51    26.93    10.23P    2.01R    0.28  
Fulham          10   12   +1      -1.10    41.31     2.08    58.86    10.11    -3.90     0.37     1.17     9.21     2.68P   10.02R    2.25  
Nott'm_Forest   10   12   -1      -1.57    36.88    -0.85    60.75     9.85    -1.92     0.51     1.60    11.74     3.78P    6.60R    1.17  
Blackburn       10   11   +2      -3.43    22.42     0.89    63.82     9.78     7.36     1.11     3.02    18.97     6.92P    3.25R    0.49  
Leeds_United    10   11   -4      -0.51    46.58    -0.85    54.40     9.48   -12.24     0.06     0.25     3.16     0.81P   18.32R    4.66  
Charlton        10   10   -3      -1.98    33.20    -0.56    54.07     9.48   -10.14     0.05     0.25     3.01     0.81P   19.18R    4.99  
Huddersfield    10   10   -4      -1.24    40.01    -0.21    51.79     9.55   -15.61     0.04     0.13     1.89     0.45P   27.43R    8.22  
MK_Dons         10    8   -5      -4.58    15.15    -3.21    52.13    10.26   -13.03     0.07     0.26     2.70     0.81P   26.98R    8.42  
Brentford       10    8   -7      -5.10    12.34    -5.93    56.93    10.02    -7.85     0.18     0.67     6.22     2.01P   13.66R    3.21  
Rotherham       10    8   -7      -2.25    31.02    -1.60    43.55     9.07   -28.89     0.00     0.01     0.18     0.03P   61.85R   30.70  
Bolton          10    8   -7      -3.32    22.58    -3.36    51.48     9.56   -15.68     0.02     0.11     1.69     0.42P   28.30R    8.72  
Preston         10    7   -6      -4.51    14.95    -3.05    49.85     9.80   -14.80     0.02     0.08     1.39     0.39P   33.98R   11.31  
Bristol_City    10    7   -8      -4.91    13.53    -5.00    49.72    10.32   -19.26     0.04     0.12     1.74     0.47P   36.13R   13.80  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 3 October 2015, Blackpool 1 0 Swindon; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Burton_Albion    11   25   +6      10.14    98.28     6.24    73.06     9.97     6.49    10.28    19.64    50.89    25.86P    1.07R    0.03  
Walsall          11   22  +10       4.95    85.75     7.06    75.51     9.52    18.20    14.85    27.27    62.92    36.59P    0.37R    0.01  
Bury             11   22   +6       7.17    92.95     6.54    69.17    10.26     4.35     5.72    11.90    36.94    16.79P    3.18R    0.19  
Gillingham       11   21  +10       4.18    80.70     7.46    74.41     9.95    18.05    13.47    25.05    58.76    32.84P    0.80R    0.02  
Coventry         10   19   +9       3.81    80.09     6.77    73.30    10.04    16.22    11.34    21.61    54.03    29.57P    1.09R    0.06  
Rochdale         11   17   +3       0.91    57.78     1.60    67.38     9.95     6.24     3.95     8.61    31.00    14.06P    4.16R    0.28  
Sheff_Utd        11   17   +2      -0.19    48.32    -1.10    73.03     9.66    14.01     9.89    19.55    53.02    29.12P    0.93R    0.04  
Port_Vale        11   16   +2       1.30    61.41     2.62    62.32     9.60    -0.56     1.20     2.91    15.27     5.59P   10.14R    0.80  
Wigan            11   16   +1      -2.64    28.73    -4.26    73.93     9.97    15.58    12.40    23.26    56.42    34.25P    0.99R    0.04  
Colchester       11   16   -1       2.14    67.78     1.27    59.32     9.67    -8.83     0.54     1.53     9.32     3.07P   17.55R    2.13  
Southend         11   15   +0       1.48    63.22     1.99    57.53     9.60    -7.29     0.33     1.01     6.81     2.26P   22.03R    2.64  
Peterborough     11   14   +2      -2.60    29.65    -0.29    66.98     9.86     9.31     3.45     7.77    30.03    13.73P    4.51R    0.39  
Barnsley         10   14   +0      -0.49    46.13    -1.08    67.33    10.05     5.82     3.88     8.62    30.69    14.22P    4.49R    0.39  
Chesterfield     11   14   -1      -1.92    34.94    -2.23    65.71     9.83     4.41     2.65     5.97    25.05    10.74P    5.70R    0.41  
Millwall         11   14   -4      -1.40    39.52    -4.34    63.34    10.31    -2.27     1.79     4.40    19.36     8.13P   10.39R    0.99  
Bradford         11   13   -4      -1.24    40.50    -2.73    59.60     9.46    -5.80     0.50     1.35     9.38     3.22P   15.90R    1.79  
Swindon          11   12   -2      -5.55    12.51    -5.73    66.05     9.93     7.06     2.89     6.76    26.86    12.65P    5.41R    0.47  
Oldham           11   11   -4      -2.20    32.78    -1.19    54.03     9.48   -11.48     0.09     0.32     3.26     0.92P   34.14R    5.97  
Shrewsbury       11   11   -4      -3.31    24.63    -2.98    55.30     9.85    -9.08     0.19     0.63     4.86     1.58P   29.52R    4.85  
Scunthorpe       11   11   -4      -2.84    27.36    -2.09    52.90     9.52   -13.67     0.08     0.26     2.64     0.71P   39.01R    7.16  
Doncaster        11   11   -5      -3.31    23.99    -3.91    58.02     9.57    -6.26     0.31     0.96     7.20     2.41P   20.28R    2.58  
Blackpool        11   11   -8      -2.08    34.33    -5.03    54.08     9.93   -15.24     0.15     0.49     3.81     1.27P   35.57R    7.08  
Fleetwood_Town   11    9   -5      -4.33    17.48    -2.34    50.65     9.41   -14.49     0.05     0.13     1.41     0.41P   47.76R   11.02  
Crewe            11    6   -9      -4.84    13.30    -2.23    40.51     8.98   -30.80     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.01P   85.02R   50.66  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 3 October 2015, AFC_Wimbledon 2 0 Barnet; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Plymouth             11   23   +9       5.14    86.42     4.91    78.65     9.55    20.25    14.09    45.00    79.00    54.28P    0.01R    0.00  
Wycombe              11   21   +8       2.97    73.57     3.66    77.56     9.58    20.71    11.50    41.04    75.59    50.85P    0.02R    0.01  
Leyton_Orient        11   21   +7      -0.34    45.76    -2.82    87.19     9.89    35.09    48.61    78.12    94.37    84.01P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           11   20   +7       3.51    77.12     4.84    72.04     9.63    12.96     4.52    20.95    55.08    29.49P    0.14R    0.02  
Oxford_Utd           11   20   +7       3.87    79.32     5.36    73.18     9.57    14.76     5.61    24.33    59.70    33.22P    0.09R    0.02  
Mansfield            11   19   +8       5.19    86.68     9.75    64.25     9.43     4.19     0.84     5.45    24.18     9.08P    1.43R    0.45  
Accrington_Stanley   11   19   +5       4.91    85.03     6.58    65.79     9.73     2.81     1.33     7.70    29.37    11.84P    1.18R    0.35  
Carlisle             11   19   +1       3.88    79.18     1.32    63.62     9.94    -5.33     0.82     5.64    22.94     9.00P    2.13R    0.65  
Northampton          11   18   +3       2.69    71.64     2.72    69.00     9.87     7.34     2.39    13.52    42.53    20.24P    0.55R    0.16  
Luton                11   17   +6      -0.07    49.47     3.08    70.68     9.75    14.60     3.86    17.90    50.04    26.44P    0.32R    0.09  
Exeter               11   17   +0       2.09    67.14     0.44    64.45     9.83    -1.24     0.90     6.26    25.31    10.46P    1.62R    0.47  
Bristol_Rovers       11   16   +2       1.69    64.58     2.94    63.58     9.80     1.98     0.67     5.36    22.94     9.46P    1.99R    0.64  
AFC_Wimbledon        11   16   +0       1.87    66.14     1.40    60.72     9.42    -4.90     0.34     2.50    14.13     4.79P    3.49R    1.26  
Morecambe            11   14   -1      -0.48    46.99     0.02    60.84     9.80    -3.41     0.37     3.10    15.56     5.84P    3.89R    1.38  
Cambridge_Utd        11   14   -1       0.31    53.79     1.30    56.68     9.50    -9.42     0.11     1.04     7.69     2.28P    7.95R    3.08  
Notts_County         11   14   -3      -2.92    27.63    -5.68    69.96    10.22     8.99     3.49    16.77    46.51    25.75P    0.55R    0.15  
Hartlepool           11   13   -6       0.90    58.95    -1.55    49.49     9.02   -23.37     0.00     0.11     1.28     0.30P   26.32R   12.44  
York                 11   10   -3      -4.47    16.86    -2.24    54.20     9.27    -8.17     0.04     0.54     4.36     1.36P   11.82R    4.82  
Barnet               11   10   -7      -1.44    39.09    -1.08    48.66     9.83   -21.90     0.01     0.17     1.68     0.44P   30.97R   16.77  
Stevenage            11    9   -7      -6.67     7.68    -7.80    56.37     9.65    -7.94     0.08     1.07     7.21     2.74P    8.61R    3.50  
Crawley_Town         11    9   -7      -6.29     9.35    -7.37    59.15    10.16    -3.86     0.30     2.42    12.91     5.44P    6.25R    2.52  
Yeovil               11    8   -7      -6.81     7.32    -6.65    54.71     9.98    -8.76     0.10     0.87     5.85     2.18P   12.64R    5.83  
Dag_&_Red            11    7   -9      -5.94     9.43    -5.44    49.07     9.53   -18.36     0.01     0.12     1.46     0.43P   28.22R   14.31  
Newport_County       11    6  -12      -6.26     7.76    -7.69    43.90     9.07   -27.02     0.00     0.01     0.30     0.08P   49.77R   31.08  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 6 October 2015, Altrincham 1 3 Halifax; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Cheltenham       15   29  +16       0.28    50.98     3.41    88.86     8.70    43.05    39.61    90.88    57.30P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     14   29   +9       5.05    82.76     1.74    82.43     9.02    23.55    13.87    71.52    26.83P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         15   27  +11      -1.50    38.27    -1.29    86.37     8.74    36.91    27.07    85.64    47.19P    0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic   15   27   +8       3.72    74.57     4.07    71.62     8.75    11.00     1.34    25.77     5.67P    0.07R    0.01  
Bromley          15   26   +5       6.72    86.99     7.70    68.92     9.61     4.57     1.11    18.90     3.71P    0.51R    0.06  
Gateshead        15   26   +1       4.45    78.49    -0.23    71.07     8.78     4.65     1.16    22.99     4.69P    0.10R    0.01  
Grimsby          15   25  +13      -2.98    29.04     1.77    81.21     8.47    33.80    11.34    70.12    29.72P    0.00     0.00  
Braintree_Town   15   25   +6       2.84    69.90     3.66    69.47     8.48     9.16     0.62    17.80     3.77P    0.13R    0.00  
Wrexham          15   24   +7       1.02    57.31     3.44    71.80     8.64    14.82     1.21    26.97     6.32P    0.05R    0.00  
Lincoln_City     14   23   +6       3.52    74.16     5.75    68.25     9.06     7.64     0.71    16.12     3.17P    0.35R    0.03  
Eastleigh        14   21   +1      -0.90    43.85    -3.04    66.92     9.16     3.51     0.58    13.23     2.78P    0.69R    0.09  
Barrow           15   21   -7       5.01    82.30     0.54    52.99     8.83   -24.13     0.01     0.54     0.07P   16.20R    3.78  
Woking           14   20   +4      -1.76    37.06     0.16    69.27     9.12    11.91     0.87    19.39     4.72P    0.34R    0.04  
Macclesfield     15   20   +4      -2.55    32.59     1.14    66.05     8.67     9.28     0.28    10.54     2.48P    0.59R    0.07  
Aldershot        14   20   -2       2.09    65.95     0.13    64.35     8.97    -1.60     0.21     7.49     1.30P    1.32R    0.17  
Chester          15   19   -6       2.94    71.74     1.41    56.42     8.57   -14.55     0.01     0.97     0.12P    7.94R    1.51  
Welling          15   18   -2       0.46    54.38     2.48    54.84     8.42   -10.62     0.01     0.63     0.07P    9.85R    1.90  
Guiseley         15   18   -7       1.61    62.74    -0.93    46.98     8.33   -28.20     0.00     0.06     0.00P   37.91R   12.20  
Altrincham       15   17  -11       1.99    66.10    -2.14    49.52     8.22   -27.04     0.00     0.11     0.02P   26.61R    7.00  
Boreham_Wood     15   12   -6      -3.45    27.67     1.88    47.02     8.90   -17.41     0.00     0.09     0.02P   36.52R   13.02  
Southport        14   11  -11      -2.28    33.40    -1.53    44.66     8.35   -27.13     0.00     0.02     0.00    47.89R   19.23  
Halifax          15   10  -13      -9.71     3.48   -11.22    46.31     8.61   -23.84     0.00     0.06     0.01P   39.50R   13.99  
Torquay          15   10  -15      -8.98     4.76   -12.08    49.98     8.64   -19.86     0.00     0.16     0.03P   24.37R    7.00  
Kidderminster    15    7  -11     -10.88     1.68    -6.83    44.06     8.44   -19.47     0.00     0.01     0.00    49.06R   19.90