Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Monday 5 October 2015 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 4 October 2015, Arsenal 3 0 Man_Utd; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Man_City          8   18  +12       0.86    57.11     1.49    82.79     7.84    52.89    69.43    88.02    94.76    97.61    99.48     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal           8   16   +6       1.23    61.45     0.21    73.37     8.35    31.56    16.27    48.64    68.86    81.15    92.86     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd           8   16   +4       1.64    65.96    -1.26    69.46     8.52    22.69     7.95    28.08    49.14    64.86    84.12     0.01R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace    8   15   +4       5.48    92.67     6.32    53.40     8.36    -0.02     0.13     0.88     2.81     6.40    18.52     1.16R    0.10  
Leicester         8   15   +2       4.19    85.30     2.45    50.78     8.51    -8.24     0.06     0.45     1.68     3.89    11.89     2.93R    0.29  
West_Ham          8   14   +6       2.72    76.82     5.88    54.73     8.54     5.08     0.14     1.43     4.42     9.25    24.13     0.85R    0.04  
Everton           8   13   +4       1.75    67.32     3.63    60.91     8.53    13.98     1.13     6.22    14.80    26.03    50.65     0.13R    0.00  
Tottenham         8   13   +4       1.21    62.36     2.94    59.94     8.69    12.60     0.89     5.26    12.98    23.44    46.15     0.25R    0.01  
Southampton       8   12   +3      -0.66    43.21     0.51    58.96     8.55    11.51     0.77     3.98    10.45    19.42    41.64     0.26R    0.01  
Liverpool         8   12   -2      -0.39    45.84    -4.17    58.48     8.75     5.63     0.63     3.69     9.47    17.68    38.55     0.34R    0.01  
Swansea           8   10   +0      -0.38    46.96     0.96    50.16     8.53    -2.00     0.04     0.39     1.40     3.19    10.89     3.34R    0.30  
Watford           8   10   -1       1.02    61.51     2.44    43.18     8.59   -13.91     0.00     0.07     0.30     0.73     2.73    15.40R    2.62  
Norwich           8    9   -2      -0.72    43.83     0.07    41.37     8.65   -17.77     0.00     0.07     0.19     0.46     1.81    21.77R    4.30  
Stoke             8    9   -2      -1.77    32.86    -1.70    46.48     8.21    -7.51     0.01     0.10     0.45     1.18     4.57     7.01R    0.88  
Bournemouth       8    8   -2      -1.85    33.38    -0.05    37.40     8.46   -22.97     0.00     0.01     0.04     0.13     0.64    37.60R    9.56  
Chelsea           8    8   -5      -5.80     6.66    -9.21    64.83     8.37    19.95     2.53    12.69    28.13    44.21    69.40     0.04R    0.00  
West_Brom         8    8   -5      -0.41    47.69    -1.13    42.32     8.26   -15.80     0.00     0.03     0.12     0.35     1.76    17.68R    3.08  
Aston_Villa       8    4   -5      -4.45    10.93    -1.19    31.64     7.68   -27.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.06    65.51R   25.43  
Sunderland        8    3  -10      -5.07     7.48    -5.47    29.94     7.62   -33.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    73.91R   35.43  
Newcastle         8    3  -11      -3.33    16.01    -2.74    34.42     8.19   -27.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.13    51.81R   17.96  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 4 October 2015, Charlton 2 2 Fulham; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Brighton        10   22   +6       7.55    95.74     4.75    73.62     9.43    10.02     6.81    15.50    52.49    23.51P    0.22R    0.02  
Middlesbrough   10   20  +10       2.26    69.27     4.05    81.90     9.54    28.43    28.67    47.18    82.99    58.29P    0.01R    0.00  
Reading         10   18   +9       3.99    81.49     8.45    70.11     9.83    13.35     4.01     9.96    39.82    16.35P    0.69R    0.08  
Birmingham      10   18   +6       4.14    82.36     5.73    66.40     9.75     4.75     1.91     5.03    25.69     9.03P    1.84R    0.20  
Hull            10   18   +6       1.04    59.01     1.24    78.71     9.96    22.52    18.63    33.75    72.53    45.80P    0.06R    0.01  
Burnley         10   18   +3       1.84    65.78    -0.60    74.07    10.06    13.17     8.68    18.24    54.92    28.00P    0.28R    0.03  
Derby           10   17   +5       0.11    50.79     0.26    77.81     9.88    22.48    16.11    30.83    70.01    42.53P    0.07R    0.00  
Cardiff         10   16   +3       1.90    66.80     2.33    66.50     9.69     5.00     1.75     4.83    25.80     9.44P    1.77R    0.25  
Wolverhampton   10   15   +4      -0.73    43.75     0.96    71.36     9.81    14.65     5.27    12.29    44.86    20.88P    0.52R    0.04  
Sheff_Wed       10   15   +1       1.83    66.98     1.63    61.61     9.45    -2.43     0.55     1.62    12.23     3.69P    4.68R    0.75  
QPR             10   15   -2      -0.07    49.68    -4.06    67.49    10.68     2.56     3.23     7.78    30.74    13.14P    2.35R    0.39  
Ipswich         10   15   -2       0.52    54.92    -3.17    66.53     9.96     1.21     2.01     5.38    26.26     9.95P    1.99R    0.29  
Fulham          10   12   +1      -1.11    40.97     2.06    59.00    10.07    -3.63     0.36     1.23     9.27     2.72P    9.74R    2.12  
Nott'm_Forest   10   12   -1      -1.56    36.86    -0.86    60.92     9.86    -1.64     0.41     1.51    12.04     3.85P    6.42R    1.11  
Blackburn       10   11   +2      -3.46    22.24     0.89    63.78     9.83     7.32     1.12     3.19    18.85     7.10P    3.34R    0.57  
Leeds_United    10   11   -4      -0.61    45.81    -0.98    54.66     9.38   -11.84     0.07     0.25     3.27     0.78P   17.63R    4.34  
Charlton        10   10   -3      -1.95    33.52    -0.50    54.03     9.48   -10.15     0.05     0.19     3.00     0.70P   19.22R    4.97  
Huddersfield    10   10   -4      -1.25    40.13    -0.21    51.78     9.61   -15.65     0.04     0.13     1.81     0.43P   27.54R    8.47  
MK_Dons         10    8   -5      -4.55    15.38    -3.17    52.02    10.10   -13.21     0.06     0.22     2.52     0.71P   26.99R    8.22  
Brentford       10    8   -7      -5.03    12.84    -5.82    56.63     9.93    -8.36     0.16     0.56     5.71     1.73P   14.00R    3.38  
Rotherham       10    8   -7      -2.23    31.40    -1.58    43.52     9.11   -28.92     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.03P   61.58R   30.87  
Bolton          10    8   -7      -3.29    22.91    -3.38    51.48     9.64   -15.62     0.02     0.10     1.76     0.43P   28.45R    8.88  
Preston         10    7   -6      -4.49    14.96    -3.00    49.66     9.75   -15.05     0.03     0.07     1.38     0.39P   34.86R   11.58  
Bristol_City    10    7   -8      -4.95    13.20    -5.05    49.93    10.37   -18.96     0.06     0.17     1.88     0.52P   35.75R   13.44  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 3 October 2015, Blackpool 1 0 Swindon; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Burton_Albion    11   25   +6      10.11    98.31     6.20    73.18     9.88     6.69    10.40    19.81    51.54    26.28P    1.06R    0.02  
Walsall          11   22  +10       4.94    85.69     7.03    75.42     9.46    18.11    14.65    26.90    63.08    35.93P    0.34R    0.01  
Bury             11   22   +6       7.25    93.21     6.67    68.87    10.12     3.90     5.25    11.28    35.91    16.20P    3.34R    0.19  
Gillingham       11   21  +10       4.28    81.35     7.61    74.20     9.88    17.74    13.32    24.62    57.40    32.31P    0.77R    0.03  
Coventry         10   19   +9       3.79    80.05     6.69    73.38    10.03    16.39    11.59    21.88    54.61    29.94P    1.07R    0.05  
Rochdale         11   17   +3       0.92    57.85     1.62    67.31     9.91     6.12     3.89     8.63    30.91    13.90P    4.28R    0.28  
Sheff_Utd        11   17   +2      -0.26    47.83    -1.23    73.16     9.65    14.17    10.24    20.11    53.67    29.91P    0.97R    0.06  
Port_Vale        11   16   +2       1.31    61.38     2.64    62.28     9.66    -0.73     1.13     3.00    15.30     5.67P   10.40R    0.93  
Wigan            11   16   +1      -2.62    28.75    -4.25    73.96    10.05    15.56    12.65    23.60    56.62    34.48P    0.97R    0.04  
Colchester       11   16   -1       2.15    68.11     1.29    59.27     9.60    -8.85     0.47     1.38     8.84     2.74P   17.62R    2.17  
Southend         11   15   +0       1.54    63.82     2.09    57.30     9.62    -7.55     0.35     0.97     6.60     2.20P   22.85R    3.00  
Peterborough     11   14   +2      -2.62    29.53    -0.33    66.95     9.77     9.25     3.33     7.55    29.90    13.65P    4.45R    0.31  
Barnsley         10   14   +0      -0.49    46.38    -1.08    67.33    10.06     5.90     4.04     8.76    31.06    14.52P    4.48R    0.37  
Chesterfield     11   14   -1      -1.96    34.65    -2.28    65.85     9.83     4.63     2.53     6.22    25.94    11.24P    5.51R    0.42  
Millwall         11   14   -4      -1.34    39.77    -4.27    63.34    10.25    -2.27     1.87     4.30    19.25     7.94P   10.26R    0.99  
Bradford         11   13   -4      -1.19    40.77    -2.70    59.53     9.42    -5.83     0.53     1.37     9.14     3.09P   15.94R    1.68  
Swindon          11   12   -2      -5.46    12.84    -5.58    65.79     9.90     6.64     2.71     6.48    26.46    12.33P    5.83R    0.45  
Oldham           11   11   -4      -2.19    32.83    -1.22    54.13     9.54   -11.29     0.14     0.40     3.45     1.04P   34.12R    5.91  
Shrewsbury       11   11   -4      -3.43    23.64    -3.16    55.60     9.83    -8.59     0.23     0.69     4.97     1.73P   28.81R    4.70  
Scunthorpe       11   11   -4      -2.81    27.98    -2.04    52.77     9.54   -13.92     0.10     0.29     2.58     0.76P   39.65R    7.47  
Doncaster        11   11   -5      -3.37    23.68    -4.00    58.15     9.58    -6.07     0.40     1.10     7.43     2.54P   20.29R    2.64  
Blackpool        11   11   -8      -2.08    34.00    -5.03    54.26     9.81   -15.02     0.15     0.47     3.72     1.18P   35.00R    6.46  
Fleetwood_Town   11    9   -5      -4.38    17.34    -2.43    50.77     9.43   -14.40     0.05     0.17     1.56     0.40P   47.12R   11.26  
Crewe            11    6   -9      -4.85    13.46    -2.24    40.64     8.99   -30.58     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.01P   84.89R   50.56  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 3 October 2015, AFC_Wimbledon 2 0 Barnet; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Plymouth             11   23   +9       5.04    85.91     4.75    78.88     9.53    20.59    14.51    46.17    79.63    55.30P    0.01R    0.00  
Wycombe              11   21   +8       2.96    73.54     3.65    77.65     9.58    20.76    11.81    41.10    75.99    51.33P    0.02R    0.00  
Leyton_Orient        11   21   +7      -0.38    45.57    -2.88    87.28     9.85    35.24    48.33    78.18    94.59    84.15P    0.00R    0.00  
Portsmouth           11   20   +7       3.54    77.31     4.88    72.07     9.66    13.01     4.55    20.88    54.92    29.07P    0.17R    0.04  
Oxford_Utd           11   20   +7       3.81    79.06     5.30    73.26     9.58    14.92     5.56    24.38    59.92    33.40P    0.12R    0.04  
Mansfield            11   19   +8       5.24    86.93     9.79    64.11     9.44     3.97     0.79     5.34    23.89     8.89P    1.41R    0.46  
Accrington_Stanley   11   19   +5       4.88    84.76     6.52    65.78     9.69     2.81     1.26     7.51    29.43    11.77P    1.21R    0.41  
Carlisle             11   19   +1       3.98    79.88     1.44    63.52    10.03    -5.42     0.83     5.59    22.90     9.08P    2.27R    0.79  
Northampton          11   18   +3       2.71    71.78     2.74    68.93     9.93     7.18     2.58    13.55    41.65    20.00P    0.58R    0.18  
Luton                11   17   +6      -0.01    49.92     3.16    70.63     9.73    14.50     3.57    17.65    49.94    26.28P    0.35R    0.10  
Exeter               11   17   +0       2.11    67.41     0.50    64.44     9.88    -1.27     0.88     6.19    25.38    10.41P    1.74R    0.56  
Bristol_Rovers       11   16   +2       1.69    64.72     2.97    63.51     9.84     1.83     0.74     5.08    22.85     9.13P    2.03R    0.67  
AFC_Wimbledon        11   16   +0       1.88    66.09     1.45    60.53     9.46    -5.22     0.28     2.49    13.88     4.89P    3.63R    1.22  
Morecambe            11   14   -1      -0.51    46.66     0.00    60.90     9.89    -3.26     0.38     3.07    15.92     5.87P    4.04R    1.39  
Cambridge_Utd        11   14   -1       0.34    53.81     1.33    56.74     9.58    -9.34     0.09     1.17     7.87     2.44P    7.99R    3.13  
Notts_County         11   14   -3      -2.85    27.88    -5.58    69.76    10.32     8.73     3.29    16.47    45.81    25.15P    0.63R    0.23  
Hartlepool           11   13   -6       0.91    59.22    -1.54    49.48     8.97   -23.41     0.00     0.09     1.25     0.30P   26.39R   12.68  
York                 11   10   -3      -4.54    16.38    -2.35    54.41     9.32    -7.79     0.04     0.54     4.67     1.44P   11.44R    4.68  
Barnet               11   10   -7      -1.43    39.31    -1.05    48.54     9.74   -22.10     0.01     0.17     1.54     0.45P   31.24R   17.00  
Stevenage            11    9   -7      -6.63     7.68    -7.71    56.28     9.68    -8.06     0.09     0.98     7.41     2.65P    8.78R    3.50  
Crawley_Town         11    9   -7      -6.27     9.26    -7.34    59.11    10.18    -3.85     0.30     2.40    12.88     5.32P    6.30R    2.55  
Yeovil               11    8   -7      -6.77     7.38    -6.64    54.68     9.97    -8.79     0.09     0.81     5.84     2.18P   12.95R    5.80  
Dag_&_Red            11    7   -9      -6.01     9.42    -5.57    49.18     9.53   -18.25     0.01     0.15     1.53     0.43P   27.77R   14.04  
Newport_County       11    6  -12      -6.30     7.62    -7.80    44.09     9.14   -26.78     0.00     0.02     0.31     0.07P   48.94R   30.54  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 3 October 2015, Altrincham 1 0 Barrow; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Forest_Green     14   29   +9       5.12    83.09     1.83    82.09     9.00    22.97    11.86    71.70    25.24P    0.00R    0.00  
Cheltenham       14   28  +16       0.99    56.38     3.87    90.09     8.84    44.42    43.53    92.94    60.67P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         14   26  +11      -1.01    41.31    -1.11    87.30     8.92    37.56    29.02    87.65    50.04P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead        14   26   +2       5.30    83.58    -0.11    72.26     8.94     5.34     1.55    28.61     6.01P    0.09R    0.01  
Dover_Athletic   14   24   +7       2.37    66.98     3.54    69.88     8.89     9.87     0.93    21.76     4.48P    0.23R    0.02  
Braintree_Town   14   24   +6       2.89    70.82     3.18    69.24     8.68     8.24     0.67    18.81     4.09P    0.20R    0.01  
Wrexham          14   23   +7       1.25    59.13     3.26    71.58     8.85    13.99     1.29    27.79     6.46P    0.08R    0.01  
Lincoln_City     14   23   +6       3.69    75.59     5.97    68.01     8.98     7.30     0.63    16.28     3.07P    0.42R    0.04  
Bromley          14   23   +4       5.42    83.31     7.33    66.47     9.82     2.14     0.64    14.24     2.52P    1.28R    0.13  
Grimsby          14   22  +12      -4.01    22.10     1.67    79.81     8.70    33.08     8.24    65.36    26.21P    0.01R    0.00  
Eastleigh        14   21   +1      -0.89    43.64    -3.01    66.75     9.12     3.18     0.45    13.62     2.87P    0.75R    0.08  
Woking           14   20   +4      -1.76    37.05     0.16    69.44     9.08    12.21     0.84    21.21     4.77P    0.31R    0.03  
Aldershot        14   20   -2       1.99    65.30    -0.03    64.57     8.91    -1.21     0.19     8.42     1.48P    1.26R    0.15  
Chester          14   19   -5       4.15    79.51     2.03    58.00     8.77   -13.04     0.02     1.85     0.24P    6.50R    1.13  
Welling          14   18   -1       1.67    63.40     3.20    56.52     8.57    -9.08     0.00     1.25     0.18P    7.59R    1.21  
Guiseley         14   18   -4       1.75    63.66     0.17    49.80     8.75   -22.58     0.00     0.28     0.04P   27.25R    7.37  
Barrow           14   18   -8       3.77    77.05     0.05    50.30     8.88   -26.38     0.00     0.31     0.04P   26.34R    7.11  
Macclesfield     14   17   +1      -3.35    26.36    -0.63    63.65     8.81     5.20     0.15     7.14     1.50P    1.47R    0.17  
Altrincham       14   17   -9       3.04    73.54    -0.84    51.60     8.47   -23.68     0.00     0.25     0.02P   20.30R    4.77  
Boreham_Wood     14   11   -6      -3.21    27.98     1.65    46.88     9.01   -18.11     0.00     0.12     0.02P   38.54R   13.71  
Southport        14   11  -11      -2.27    33.83    -1.51    44.71     8.39   -27.03     0.00     0.02     0.00    48.75R   18.83  
Torquay          14   10  -14      -7.81     6.68   -11.50    51.59     8.89   -18.37     0.00     0.33     0.04P   20.40R    5.29  
Halifax          14    7  -15     -10.80     1.49   -12.38    43.88     8.71   -27.19     0.00     0.04     0.00P   52.29R   22.08  
Kidderminster    14    6  -11     -10.50     1.52    -6.79    44.90     8.71   -18.83     0.00     0.04     0.01P   45.93R   17.84