Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 11 September 2015 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 30 August 2015, Southampton 3 0 Norwich; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Man_City          4   12  +10       3.56    92.05     5.10    86.89     8.60    57.44    82.34    93.97    97.64    99.02    99.78     0.00     0.00  
Crystal_Palace    4    9   +3       4.33    94.45     4.25    50.50     9.12    -4.58     0.10     0.88     2.72     5.92    16.12     5.17R    0.83  
Leicester         4    8   +3       2.37    80.76     2.79    49.17     9.30    -6.03     0.05     0.74     2.25     4.90    13.94     7.50R    1.29  
Swansea           4    8   +3       2.67    84.77     3.24    54.98     9.44     3.36     0.33     2.75     7.20    14.10    31.95     2.12R    0.24  
Man_Utd           4    7   +1      -0.42    43.50    -1.81    65.58     9.38    18.73     3.37    19.77    37.31    52.86    74.73     0.10R    0.01  
Arsenal           4    7   +0      -0.36    44.50    -2.80    67.78     9.32    21.35     5.11    26.81    47.02    62.56    81.67     0.04R    0.01  
Liverpool         4    7   -1       0.68    60.26    -2.26    60.69     9.49     9.39     1.22     8.71    19.23    31.85    55.24     0.54R    0.04  
West_Ham          4    6   +3       0.83    61.45     3.43    51.15     9.30     0.60     0.13     1.11     3.38     7.17    19.28     4.79R    0.74  
Everton           4    5   +1      -0.32    46.78     1.34    56.76     9.35     8.66     0.42     4.01    10.58    18.92    39.41     1.34R    0.19  
Southampton       4    5   +0      -1.78    26.33    -1.91    55.39     9.30     5.53     0.32     3.04     8.07    15.17    33.26     1.69R    0.26  
Bournemouth       4    4   -1      -0.56    45.02     0.48    39.30     9.55   -20.57     0.00     0.08     0.28     0.72     2.62    36.43R   12.98  
Aston_Villa       4    4   -1      -0.53    44.34     0.34    37.46     8.61   -20.85     0.00     0.01     0.04     0.19     0.94    42.50R   14.69  
Chelsea           4    4   -3      -3.10    12.64    -5.40    69.73     9.18    26.58     6.42    35.75    57.00    71.05    86.87     0.03R    0.00  
Norwich           4    4   -3      -0.75    41.53    -1.96    39.36     9.50   -22.12     0.00     0.08     0.26     0.64     2.49    36.21R   12.64  
West_Brom         4    4   -3       0.12    55.03    -0.28    43.90     9.07   -12.60     0.00     0.15     0.59     1.38     5.16    18.51R    4.49  
Tottenham         4    3   -1      -2.53    17.26    -1.10    52.91     9.54     3.50     0.17     1.83     5.22    10.54    25.31     3.61R    0.57  
Watford           4    3   -2      -0.59    42.16     1.23    40.11     9.65   -17.31     0.00     0.07     0.32     0.83     3.07    32.92R   11.33  
Stoke             4    2   -2      -3.32    10.84    -1.83    44.88     9.02    -7.18     0.01     0.23     0.76     1.78     6.15    14.82R    3.25  
Newcastle         4    2   -3      -1.48    30.38     0.02    39.24     8.92   -17.86     0.00     0.03     0.12     0.31     1.62    35.05R   11.53  
Sunderland        4    2   -4      -2.69    16.30    -2.87    34.49     8.56   -26.05     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.09     0.41    56.64R   24.92  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Friday 11 September 2015, Reading 5 1 Ipswich; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Brighton         5   13   +4       5.79    97.33     3.43    70.75    10.44     7.30     5.90    13.14    42.79    19.48P    0.96R    0.08  
Hull             5   10   +4       1.22    64.86     1.19    78.22    11.48    21.66    21.74    36.53    69.36    46.62P    0.26R    0.03  
QPR              5   10   +2       1.65    69.96    -0.36    74.57    12.12    14.81    14.79    26.20    56.90    34.26P    1.06R    0.14  
Ipswich          6   10   -1       1.36    65.61    -1.59    68.93    11.05     5.20     5.11    11.19    37.22    17.32P    2.10R    0.29  
Reading          6    9   +5       0.68    58.08     4.87    62.97    10.57     4.04     1.52     3.89    19.29     7.17P    5.47R    0.76  
Cardiff          5    9   +3       2.24    76.24     3.13    67.09    10.81     6.20     3.34     8.09    31.28    13.26P    2.72R    0.38  
Middlesbrough    5    8   +4      -0.42    44.74     1.72    76.26    10.82    21.66    16.03    29.11    64.43    40.09P    0.32R    0.02  
Birmingham       4    8   +3       3.12    87.69     3.87    63.10    11.10    -0.57     1.88     4.66    20.11     7.71P    6.45R    1.05  
Charlton         5    8   +2       2.39    79.59     3.73    61.90    10.66    -0.45     1.12     3.05    16.43     5.72P    6.96R    1.09  
Burnley          5    8   +0       0.23    53.33    -1.35    70.99    11.33    10.38     7.63    15.48    44.97    23.74P    1.56R    0.19  
Leeds_United     5    7   +1       0.98    63.96     2.18    58.91    10.81    -4.79     0.72     1.94    11.10     3.73P   11.62R    2.15  
MK_Dons          5    7   +1      -0.52    44.09     0.01    60.24    11.79    -3.43     1.53     3.62    15.89     6.45P   11.43R    2.26  
Wolverhampton    5    7   -1      -0.10    49.45    -1.39    69.37    11.14     8.38     5.43    12.00    39.19    19.06P    2.03R    0.29  
Fulham           5    5   +0      -1.50    32.48     0.56    56.64    11.36    -7.92     0.55     1.53     9.03     3.03P   17.69R    4.02  
Sheff_Wed        5    5   -1      -1.22    36.13    -0.23    56.22    10.51    -7.20     0.30     0.88     6.93     2.10P   16.66R    3.47  
Nott'm_Forest    5    5   -1      -2.38    22.72    -1.85    59.19    11.14    -4.17     0.88     2.40    12.61     4.64P   12.02R    2.19  
Preston          5    5   -2      -0.93    39.96    -0.84    56.06    11.10    -8.43     0.41     1.24     7.69     2.71P   18.46R    4.05  
Brentford        4    4   -1      -1.66    29.39    -1.24    64.48    11.53     3.32     2.81     6.45    24.99    10.90P    5.58R    0.95  
Derby            5    4   -1      -4.14     9.04    -2.92    70.09    11.27    14.12     6.75    14.36    42.73    22.84P    1.80R    0.25  
Bristol_City     5    4   -4      -2.01    27.04    -2.71    55.14    11.90   -12.54     0.51     1.37     8.11     2.84P   22.94R    6.46  
Blackburn        5    3   -2      -4.11     8.47    -2.45    59.30    10.94    -1.63     0.78     2.13    12.25     4.55P   11.22R    2.17  
Huddersfield     5    3   -3      -2.38    21.22    -0.79    49.94    10.68   -16.88     0.07     0.25     2.40     0.62P   36.90R   11.19  
Bolton           5    3   -4      -2.59    19.37    -2.23    53.23    10.63   -12.03     0.20     0.51     4.19     1.13P   25.44R    6.35  
Rotherham        5    1   -8      -3.90     8.24    -4.74    38.70     9.93   -37.03     0.00     0.01     0.12     0.03P   78.36R   50.18  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 6 September 2015, Burton_Albion 1 2 Coventry; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Gillingham        6   14   +8       5.61    95.08     7.77    75.56    11.04    18.05    10.65    21.58    57.94    29.91P    0.69R    0.03  
Coventry          6   13   +7       3.97    87.98     5.74    72.37    11.03    13.63     6.49    14.17    46.52    21.32P    1.54R    0.10  
Walsall           6   13   +7       3.63    85.63     5.31    72.73    10.62    14.48     6.30    14.01    47.96    22.25P    0.96R    0.05  
Sheff_Utd         5   12   +4       4.25    90.78     2.68    81.00    10.92    23.06    22.40    38.77    75.51    49.13P    0.16R    0.00  
Burton_Albion     6   12   +2       4.23    88.47     2.65    62.05    11.27    -4.97     1.21     3.09    15.75     5.50P   11.09R    1.46  
Rochdale          6   11   +6       2.10    73.00     5.01    71.78    11.10    14.89     6.37    13.55    44.42    21.02P    1.76R    0.15  
Swindon           6   11   +4       0.37    53.93     0.35    78.31    10.95    23.27    16.01    30.12    67.96    41.44P    0.32R    0.02  
Chesterfield      6   10   +2       1.44    66.22     1.49    73.21    10.93    14.62     7.29    15.69    49.83    24.33P    1.33R    0.09  
Wigan             6   10   +1      -0.33    45.60    -2.16    78.71    11.10    21.24    16.93    30.91    68.69    43.17P    0.36R    0.02  
Fleetwood_Town    6    8   +2      -0.36    46.86     1.75    59.22    10.52    -3.03     0.42     1.24     9.73     3.05P   14.21R    1.85  
Bradford          6    8   -2       0.21    53.81    -1.37    62.29    10.62    -2.32     0.82     2.26    14.83     5.00P    9.34R    1.16  
Bury              6    7   +0      -0.29    48.20     1.49    54.58    11.47   -11.94     0.22     0.76     5.78     1.74P   29.41R    6.64  
Oldham            6    7   +0      -0.99    39.37     0.26    57.20    10.42    -6.46     0.27     0.83     6.89     2.02P   19.07R    2.90  
Barnsley          6    7   -4      -1.30    36.15    -4.07    63.64    10.98    -1.29     1.33     3.34    18.72     6.94P    8.20R    1.06  
Port_Vale         5    6   +2      -0.49    44.62     2.60    60.90    11.03     0.13     0.77     2.16    13.62     4.59P   12.28R    1.63  
Southend          6    6   -2      -0.57    44.86     0.24    53.01    10.77   -12.50     0.10     0.32     3.66     0.99P   33.14R    7.25  
Doncaster         6    6   -2      -2.20    25.77    -2.05    60.88    10.64    -1.44     0.60     1.73    12.42     4.22P   11.52R    1.45  
Shrewsbury        6    5   -2      -2.96    19.72    -1.75    58.11    11.09    -4.01     0.42     1.23     9.22     3.09P   18.28R    3.19  
Scunthorpe        6    5   -3      -2.98    19.49    -2.56    53.01    10.66   -14.04     0.08     0.36     3.64     1.03P   33.12R    6.74  
Peterborough      6    4   -5      -4.33     9.89    -5.18    59.67    10.80    -3.77     0.47     1.49    10.56     3.72P   14.45R    2.11  
Millwall          5    4   -6      -2.72    20.10    -5.82    59.14    11.63    -7.52     0.71     1.90    11.37     4.17P   17.69R    3.29  
Blackpool         6    4   -8      -3.14    17.99    -6.35    51.77    11.08   -18.70     0.08     0.30     3.08     0.87P   38.73R    9.78  
Colchester        5    3   -5      -3.27    13.99    -4.06    48.40    10.78   -22.76     0.06     0.18     1.60     0.44P   50.41R   15.47  
Crewe             6    2   -6      -3.77    11.29    -1.95    42.44    10.16   -28.63     0.00     0.01     0.31     0.05P   71.92R   33.56  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 6 September 2015, Bristol_Rovers 0 1 Oxford_Utd; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Leyton_Orient         6   15   +6       2.74    78.08    -0.42    93.50    11.06    43.79    64.27    87.91    97.45    91.24P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe               6   14   +7       3.95    88.63     4.33    78.72    10.73    21.69    10.36    43.77    77.41    53.24P    0.08R    0.02  
Plymouth              6   12   +6       2.25    74.11     3.67    74.40    10.48    17.23     5.02    27.95    64.27    38.01P    0.19R    0.06  
Oxford_Utd            6   12   +5       3.39    83.97     4.34    71.32    10.68    11.75     3.03    19.45    52.39    27.13P    0.48R    0.14  
Portsmouth            6   12   +5       3.39    83.89     4.37    71.53    10.90    11.99     3.35    20.51    53.13    28.05P    0.47R    0.15  
Morecambe             6   10   +3       1.76    69.99     2.97    66.17    10.90     4.81     1.21     9.86    34.13    15.21P    1.74R    0.62  
Exeter                6   10   +2       1.87    70.87     2.28    66.34    10.87     3.92     1.19    10.04    34.52    15.39P    1.73R    0.63  
Mansfield             6    9   +2       1.84    71.59     3.48    54.61    10.06   -11.27     0.07     0.88     6.35     1.78P   12.94R    5.61  
Hartlepool            6    9   +0       2.03    73.45     1.87    54.25    10.29   -14.57     0.05     0.84     6.02     1.72P   14.59R    6.61  
Bristol_Rovers        6    9   +0       1.58    69.22     1.10    60.67    10.83    -3.34     0.34     3.82    18.09     6.99P    5.18R    2.00  
Carlisle              6    9   -1       0.62    56.97    -1.12    57.17    10.98   -13.72     0.21     2.16    11.43     3.95P   10.58R    4.82  
Cambridge_Utd         6    8   -1       0.30    55.15    -0.09    55.43    10.63   -13.55     0.10     1.36     8.22     2.63P   12.64R    5.67  
AFC_Wimbledon         6    8   -1       0.45    56.65     0.04    57.63    10.59    -9.12     0.16     1.93    11.17     3.75P    8.98R    3.90  
Stevenage             6    8   -2      -0.51    44.77    -2.29    67.77    10.91     5.45     1.49    12.30    39.58    19.30P    1.30R    0.39  
Accrington_Stanley    6    7   +0      -0.21    48.97     1.63    55.62    10.59    -9.85     0.10     1.28     8.32     2.68P   12.31R    5.77  
Northampton           6    7   -1      -1.41    34.80    -1.32    59.89    10.72    -4.37     0.28     3.29    16.41     6.23P    5.90R    2.50  
York                  6    7   -1      -1.19    36.88    -1.02    58.74    10.32    -4.81     0.15     2.17    12.81     4.35P    6.61R    2.62  
Crawley_Town          5    6   +2      -2.19    24.05     0.01    73.54    11.55    18.92     5.51    27.78    60.84    38.51P    0.50R    0.17  
Luton                 6    5   -1      -3.63    14.60    -1.61    61.84    10.65     2.04     0.49     4.48    20.98     8.66P    3.96R    1.48  
Dag_&_Red             6    5   -5      -1.62    33.17    -2.41    56.60    10.79   -10.21     0.12     1.61    10.06     3.37P   11.27R    5.21  
Barnet                6    4   -5      -2.21    26.07    -1.61    47.19    10.85   -22.95     0.01     0.21     2.07     0.57P   37.24R   22.33  
Notts_County          5    4   -5      -3.65    12.07    -6.20    67.42    11.88     5.88     2.18    13.37    39.20    21.11P    2.17R    0.89  
Yeovil                6    3   -6      -5.13     6.08    -5.85    57.91    11.48    -6.01     0.28     2.88    13.82     5.75P   10.12R    4.78  
Newport_County        6    1   -9      -5.40     3.28    -6.16    46.43    10.30   -23.70     0.01     0.13     1.33     0.37P   39.02R   23.63  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 5 September 2015, Aldershot 3 2 Halifax; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Forest_Green      8   24  +13       8.35    99.27     5.61    89.19    10.13    33.06    38.99    86.94    51.20P    0.00     0.00  
Eastleigh         8   17   +7       3.07    77.69     2.42    76.82    10.49    18.94     7.18    47.35    15.76P    0.13R    0.01  
Woking            8   16   +8       2.53    74.02     4.07    77.19    10.28    21.73     7.15    49.44    16.56P    0.07R    0.01  
Wrexham           8   16   +7       3.40    80.54     4.59    75.31     9.99    17.86     4.75    41.53    12.68P    0.10R    0.01  
Gateshead         8   16   +1       3.59    81.49    -1.14    69.83    10.17     3.31     1.58    21.88     5.04P    0.65R    0.07  
Cheltenham        8   15   +7      -0.17    47.05     0.53    82.80    10.40    30.94    17.71    70.34    34.15P    0.02R    0.00  
Dover_Athletic    8   13   +2       0.28    52.74    -0.61    63.52    10.04    -0.64     0.38     8.91     1.89P    2.50R    0.33  
Braintree_Town    8   13   +0       1.54    65.50    -0.80    63.93     9.80    -1.45     0.31     8.56     1.80P    2.19R    0.28  
Grimsby           8   12   +5      -3.07    21.30    -1.33    77.89    10.07    26.01     7.70    52.77    21.45P    0.05R    0.00  
Tranmere          8   12   +2      -2.96    22.18    -4.06    80.45    10.37    27.21    12.47    62.11    28.67P    0.03R    0.00  
Chester           8   12   -1       3.10    79.84     2.31    58.02    10.00   -11.18     0.06     3.10     0.48P    8.52R    1.65  
Aldershot         8   11   +1       0.31    53.86     1.42    63.94    10.15     2.06     0.38     9.42     1.99P    2.59R    0.35  
Lincoln_City      8   10   +0       0.98    61.23     3.24    63.19    10.30     1.02     0.32     8.62     1.78P    3.50R    0.55  
Macclesfield      8   10   -1      -1.41    36.03    -1.61    64.85    10.04     3.32     0.44    10.47     2.57P    2.13R    0.29  
Barrow            8   10   -7       2.38    75.17    -0.91    47.76    10.68   -30.45     0.00     0.51     0.07P   38.93R   14.50  
Altrincham        8    9   -5       1.27    65.37     0.03    51.36     9.70   -20.84     0.01     0.57     0.08P   23.58R    5.97  
Guiseley          8    9   -5       0.20    53.97    -1.83    45.16    10.20   -29.79     0.00     0.24     0.05P   48.12R   19.94  
Bromley           8    8   -2      -0.13    50.98     2.96    52.77    11.14   -14.54     0.03     1.80     0.31P   22.42R    7.14  
Torquay           8    8   -5      -2.55    25.95    -4.25    64.83    10.24     2.03     0.47    11.15     2.68P    2.30R    0.34  
Boreham_Wood      8    7   -2      -0.74    44.33     3.12    52.40    10.91   -12.47     0.03     1.41     0.27P   22.73R    7.08  
Welling           8    5   -5      -3.08    20.42    -0.46    48.86     9.73   -17.75     0.01     0.28     0.03P   31.28R    9.79  
Southport         8    5   -7      -3.26    19.36    -2.85    43.63     9.39   -27.92     0.00     0.06     0.01P   53.12R   22.49  
Halifax           8    4   -6      -7.17     2.60    -6.21    54.77    10.16    -8.77     0.03     1.71     0.34P   14.46R    3.52  
Kidderminster     8    3   -7      -6.11     4.07    -4.23    52.19    10.06   -11.68     0.01     0.85     0.16P   20.58R    5.68