Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 10 September 2015 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 30 August 2015, Southampton 3 0 Norwich; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Man_City          4   12  +10       3.54    91.86     5.08    86.81     8.60    57.44    82.05    94.01    97.59    98.93    99.74     0.00     0.00  
Crystal_Palace    4    9   +3       4.32    94.37     4.24    50.54     9.18    -4.53     0.08     0.81     2.73     6.00    16.72     5.37R    0.93  
Leicester         4    8   +3       2.38    80.82     2.81    49.31     9.31    -5.82     0.05     0.89     2.55     5.27    14.21     7.15R    1.16  
Swansea           4    8   +3       2.67    84.95     3.25    55.08     9.37     3.46     0.26     2.64     7.44    14.24    31.90     2.01R    0.28  
Man_Utd           4    7   +1      -0.43    43.28    -1.84    65.59     9.28    18.71     3.26    19.38    36.94    52.55    74.89     0.09R    0.01  
Arsenal           4    7   +0      -0.43    43.42    -2.88    67.97     9.28    21.61     5.33    27.06    47.49    63.20    82.54     0.05R    0.01  
Liverpool         4    7   -1       0.71    60.58    -2.24    60.56     9.52     9.17     1.14     8.33    18.94    31.29    54.63     0.61R    0.07  
West_Ham          4    6   +3       0.84    61.85     3.47    51.05     9.30     0.41     0.12     1.13     3.32     6.94    18.55     4.93R    0.89  
Everton           4    5   +1      -0.30    47.10     1.37    56.67     9.39     8.49     0.38     3.94    10.18    18.68    38.67     1.39R    0.16  
Southampton       4    5   +0      -1.79    26.30    -1.93    55.51     9.36     5.71     0.34     3.20     8.43    15.55    33.96     1.68R    0.17  
Bournemouth       4    4   -1      -0.59    44.41     0.44    39.46     9.70   -20.36     0.01     0.10     0.33     0.74     2.66    35.93R   12.91  
Aston_Villa       4    4   -1      -0.51    44.66     0.37    37.34     8.51   -21.09     0.00     0.01     0.06     0.17     0.92    43.02R   14.64  
Chelsea           4    4   -3      -3.10    12.88    -5.41    69.78     9.26    26.77     6.73    35.95    56.43    70.76    86.84     0.04R    0.00  
Norwich           4    4   -3      -0.73    41.90    -1.92    39.28     9.53   -22.15     0.01     0.09     0.27     0.64     2.38    36.34R   12.83  
West_Brom         4    4   -3       0.11    55.02    -0.30    43.92     9.02   -12.58     0.00     0.13     0.54     1.35     5.04    17.99R    4.19  
Tottenham         4    3   -1      -2.52    17.49    -1.09    52.95     9.62     3.57     0.24     2.06     5.58    10.69    25.26     3.60R    0.65  
Watford           4    3   -2      -0.59    42.16     1.23    40.08     9.58   -17.35     0.00     0.09     0.34     0.80     2.95    33.00R   11.17  
Stoke             4    2   -2      -3.30    11.00    -1.82    44.79     9.09    -7.34     0.01     0.15     0.65     1.69     6.00    15.12R    3.45  
Newcastle         4    2   -3      -1.43    31.35     0.10    38.97     9.02   -18.34     0.00     0.04     0.16     0.43     1.66    36.30R   12.27  
Sunderland        4    2   -4      -2.71    16.36    -2.92    34.68     8.61   -25.79     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.10     0.48    55.39R   24.21  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 29 August 2015, Brentford 1 3 Reading; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Brighton         5   13   +4       5.85    97.48     3.49    70.34    10.44     6.80     5.31    11.71    41.00    17.95P    0.94R    0.07  
Hull             5   10   +4       1.21    64.63     1.19    78.71    11.47    22.27    22.20    37.00    71.06    47.65P    0.26R    0.02  
Ipswich          5   10   +3       2.39    77.65     1.90    73.47    11.18    14.06    10.45    20.63    53.30    28.86P    0.79R    0.09  
QPR              5   10   +2       1.62    69.62    -0.38    74.34    12.26    14.43    13.88    24.95    56.11    33.23P    1.17R    0.14  
Cardiff          5    9   +3       2.21    75.77     3.07    66.90    10.88     5.91     3.33     7.84    30.41    12.77P    2.68R    0.34  
Middlesbrough    5    8   +4      -0.45    44.37     1.69    76.24    10.67    21.57    14.65    27.86    64.50    39.05P    0.23R    0.01  
Birmingham       4    8   +3       3.05    86.98     3.76    62.95    11.21    -0.63     1.85     4.47    19.76     7.49P    6.36R    1.10  
Charlton         5    8   +2       2.39    79.54     3.70    61.90    10.72    -0.36     1.14     2.97    16.49     5.69P    6.86R    1.10  
Burnley          5    8   +0       0.26    53.82    -1.32    71.16    11.33    10.55     7.46    15.46    45.26    23.77P    1.44R    0.17  
Leeds_United     5    7   +1       0.91    62.86     2.05    58.44    10.66    -5.36     0.59     1.61     9.93     3.16P   11.93R    2.41  
MK_Dons          5    7   +1      -0.54    43.55    -0.04    60.12    11.77    -3.52     1.43     3.57    15.45     6.23P   11.24R    2.22  
Wolverhampton    5    7   -1      -0.09    49.79    -1.37    69.47    11.07     8.51     5.11    11.53    39.48    18.45P    1.82R    0.20  
Reading          5    6   +1      -0.55    43.60     1.38    58.03    10.65    -4.47     0.51     1.51     9.32     3.10P   12.36R    2.54  
Fulham           5    5   +0      -1.53    32.08     0.54    56.39    11.20    -8.20     0.50     1.29     8.19     2.69P   17.44R    3.97  
Sheff_Wed        5    5   -1      -1.20    36.38    -0.21    56.06    10.51    -7.25     0.30     0.87     6.53     2.02P   16.64R    3.44  
Nott'm_Forest    5    5   -1      -2.31    23.54    -1.76    58.95    11.12    -4.47     0.78     2.20    11.97     4.35P   11.84R    2.18  
Preston          5    5   -2      -0.87    40.93    -0.77    55.98    11.20    -8.36     0.36     1.12     7.75     2.56P   18.39R    4.19  
Brentford        4    4   -1      -1.60    29.98    -1.17    64.57    11.47     3.39     2.63     6.21    24.83    10.67P    5.12R    0.86  
Derby            5    4   -1      -4.10     9.46    -2.85    69.95    11.15    13.76     6.04    13.11    41.91    21.32P    1.70R    0.26  
Bristol_City     5    4   -4      -2.05    26.71    -2.76    55.76    12.07   -11.40     0.61     1.63     8.97     3.16P   21.44R    6.12  
Blackburn        5    3   -2      -4.07     8.90    -2.39    59.24    10.89    -1.56     0.73     1.92    11.95     4.36P   10.73R    2.01  
Huddersfield     5    3   -3      -2.35    21.70    -0.75    49.85    10.63   -16.74     0.04     0.17     2.27     0.51P   36.29R   11.17  
Bolton           5    3   -4      -2.56    19.43    -2.21    52.76    10.47   -12.60     0.11     0.35     3.42     0.95P   25.76R    6.66  
Rotherham        5    1   -8      -3.91     8.35    -4.80    38.97     9.99   -36.36     0.00     0.02     0.15     0.03P   76.58R   48.71  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 6 September 2015, Burton_Albion 1 2 Coventry; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Gillingham        6   14   +8       5.62    95.04     7.77    75.47    11.11    17.98    10.60    21.40    57.87    29.60P    0.77R    0.05  
Coventry          6   13   +7       3.93    87.75     5.68    72.33    11.15    13.60     6.58    14.44    46.52    21.65P    1.53R    0.10  
Walsall           6   13   +7       3.61    85.52     5.28    72.80    10.54    14.54     6.26    14.17    47.75    22.39P    0.92R    0.05  
Sheff_Utd         5   12   +4       4.25    90.73     2.65    81.21    10.94    23.40    22.84    38.84    76.05    49.59P    0.18R    0.01  
Burton_Albion     6   12   +2       4.18    88.34     2.59    62.19    11.22    -4.76     1.17     3.02    16.04     5.56P   10.78R    1.39  
Rochdale          6   11   +6       2.04    72.53     4.93    72.09    11.13    15.41     6.59    14.11    45.96    21.46P    1.57R    0.13  
Swindon           6   11   +4       0.41    54.26     0.40    78.32    11.02    23.27    15.94    30.07    67.83    41.07P    0.38R    0.02  
Chesterfield      6   10   +2       1.44    66.41     1.45    73.35    10.94    14.82     7.29    15.65    49.82    24.32P    1.24R    0.09  
Wigan             6   10   +1      -0.33    45.74    -2.13    78.55    11.19    21.05    16.56    30.32    67.93    42.85P    0.43R    0.02  
Fleetwood_Town    6    8   +2      -0.33    47.33     1.77    59.33    10.51    -2.95     0.44     1.34     9.95     3.13P   14.21R    1.89  
Bradford          6    8   -2       0.22    53.88    -1.35    62.12    10.57    -2.60     0.72     2.23    14.40     4.89P    9.54R    1.09  
Bury              6    7   +0      -0.26    48.53     1.56    54.40    11.49   -12.27     0.28     0.88     5.77     1.83P   30.09R    6.56  
Oldham            6    7   +0      -0.97    39.67     0.27    57.17    10.50    -6.44     0.26     0.74     6.86     1.97P   19.50R    3.01  
Barnsley          6    7   -4      -1.26    36.41    -3.99    63.51    10.81    -1.48     1.12     3.02    17.99     6.49P    8.09R    0.99  
Port_Vale         5    6   +2      -0.49    44.20     2.58    60.97    10.92     0.23     0.73     2.17    13.52     4.52P   11.61R    1.52  
Southend          6    6   -2      -0.56    45.22     0.28    52.87    10.76   -12.72     0.10     0.32     3.56     0.93P   33.71R    7.51  
Doncaster         6    6   -2      -2.23    25.54    -2.06    60.93    10.60    -1.44     0.58     1.73    12.32     4.16P   11.35R    1.42  
Shrewsbury        6    5   -2      -2.98    19.62    -1.74    58.06    11.21    -4.10     0.41     1.29     9.35     3.32P   18.75R    3.40  
Scunthorpe        6    5   -3      -2.95    19.48    -2.53    52.87    10.68   -14.23     0.13     0.39     3.35     1.00P   33.21R    7.04  
Peterborough      6    4   -5      -4.36     9.75    -5.20    59.93    10.76    -3.37     0.50     1.49    11.12     3.76P   13.63R    1.96  
Millwall          5    4   -6      -2.72    20.13    -5.83    58.99    11.71    -7.76     0.71     1.89    11.24     4.13P   18.03R    3.30  
Blackpool         6    4   -8      -3.10    18.45    -6.26    51.38    11.09   -19.38     0.11     0.29     2.91     0.88P   39.62R   10.40  
Colchester        5    3   -5      -3.34    13.73    -4.15    48.74    10.83   -22.11     0.06     0.18     1.61     0.46P   48.95R   14.79  
Crewe             6    2   -6      -3.77    11.25    -1.96    42.44    10.11   -28.69     0.00     0.01     0.26     0.04P   71.91R   33.30  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 6 September 2015, Bristol_Rovers 0 1 Oxford_Utd; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Leyton_Orient         6   15   +6       2.74    78.19    -0.43    93.65    11.02    44.13    64.37    88.06    97.58    91.35P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe               6   14   +7       3.94    88.39     4.27    78.96    10.71    22.16    10.44    44.69    78.12    54.08P    0.06R    0.02  
Plymouth              6   12   +6       2.27    74.39     3.72    74.20    10.49    16.95     4.89    27.26    63.52    37.06P    0.17R    0.05  
Oxford_Utd            6   12   +5       3.31    83.47     4.25    71.81    10.66    12.48     3.22    20.47    54.45    28.99P    0.41R    0.11  
Portsmouth            6   12   +5       3.41    83.84     4.40    71.36    10.89    11.68     3.21    19.66    52.53    27.62P    0.57R    0.20  
Morecambe             6   10   +3       1.75    69.61     2.99    66.16    10.91     4.74     1.20     9.72    34.06    15.03P    1.91R    0.65  
Exeter                6   10   +2       1.88    71.16     2.32    66.27    11.03     3.73     1.24    10.04    34.42    15.47P    1.95R    0.72  
Mansfield             6    9   +2       1.85    71.71     3.47    54.56    10.19   -11.40     0.05     0.83     6.28     1.79P   13.34R    6.13  
Hartlepool            6    9   +0       1.98    73.11     1.81    54.47    10.17   -14.23     0.06     0.83     6.26     1.70P   13.69R    6.11  
Bristol_Rovers        6    9   +0       1.67    70.19     1.21    60.23    10.87    -3.96     0.34     3.60    17.01     6.60P    5.73R    2.33  
Carlisle              6    9   -1       0.64    57.02    -1.10    57.17    10.94   -13.69     0.21     2.16    11.33     3.89P   10.51R    4.74  
Cambridge_Utd         6    8   -1       0.27    54.68    -0.11    55.67    10.70   -13.19     0.12     1.39     8.79     2.81P   12.46R    5.59  
AFC_Wimbledon         6    8   -1       0.46    57.03     0.04    57.59    10.52    -9.19     0.13     1.79    11.16     3.66P    8.90R    3.76  
Stevenage             6    8   -2      -0.57    44.23    -2.39    68.05    10.86     5.97     1.50    12.60    40.33    19.69P    1.23R    0.41  
Accrington_Stanley    6    7   +0      -0.20    49.12     1.66    55.40    10.62   -10.23     0.10     1.30     8.16     2.67P   12.70R    5.91  
Northampton           6    7   -1      -1.41    34.71    -1.34    59.69    10.77    -4.63     0.26     3.21    15.78     5.92P    6.19R    2.53  
York                  6    7   -1      -1.15    37.30    -0.96    58.51    10.30    -5.17     0.15     1.98    12.61     4.15P    6.66R    2.69  
Crawley_Town          5    6   +2      -2.13    24.59     0.09    73.30    11.63    18.54     5.44    27.24    60.02    37.69P    0.51R    0.16  
Luton                 6    5   -1      -3.66    14.42    -1.67    61.72    10.64     1.83     0.35     4.42    20.74     8.51P    4.12R    1.57  
Dag_&_Red             6    5   -5      -1.62    33.17    -2.43    56.81    10.75    -9.91     0.11     1.74    10.29     3.56P   10.63R    4.76  
Barnet                6    4   -5      -2.25    25.62    -1.65    47.32    10.92   -22.73     0.01     0.33     2.29     0.71P   36.98R   22.50  
Notts_County          5    4   -5      -3.66    11.93    -6.22    67.57    11.89     6.14     2.34    13.84    39.48    21.28P    2.14R    0.85  
Yeovil                6    3   -6      -5.07     6.16    -5.78    57.65    11.42    -6.47     0.26     2.70    13.35     5.37P   10.47R    4.90  
Newport_County        6    1   -9      -5.41     3.31    -6.15    46.58    10.37   -23.57     0.00     0.13     1.42     0.38P   38.66R   23.32  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 5 September 2015, Aldershot 3 2 Halifax; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Forest_Green      8   24  +13       8.33    99.20     5.55    89.35    10.10    33.35    39.35    87.14    51.36P    0.00     0.00  
Eastleigh         8   17   +7       3.04    77.48     2.39    76.90    10.33    19.02     6.72    47.82    15.30P    0.08R    0.01  
Woking            8   16   +8       2.49    73.61     4.01    77.42    10.29    22.14     7.28    50.35    17.01P    0.08R    0.00  
Wrexham           8   16   +7       3.46    81.07     4.66    75.13    10.05    17.56     4.37    40.93    12.30P    0.11R    0.02  
Gateshead         8   16   +1       3.68    81.95    -1.02    69.62    10.15     2.93     1.43    21.13     4.85P    0.66R    0.07  
Cheltenham        8   15   +7      -0.20    46.94     0.49    83.01    10.40    31.27    18.10    70.90    34.69P    0.01R    0.00  
Dover_Athletic    8   13   +2       0.26    52.52    -0.64    63.55    10.11    -0.58     0.41     9.04     2.00P    2.60R    0.37  
Braintree_Town    8   13   +0       1.50    65.19    -0.84    64.01     9.95    -1.28     0.34     9.00     1.92P    2.35R    0.29  
Grimsby           8   12   +5      -3.06    21.13    -1.30    77.81    10.10    25.89     7.64    52.49    21.23P    0.05R    0.00  
Tranmere          8   12   +2      -2.97    22.25    -4.07    80.28    10.55    27.00    12.42    61.46    28.72P    0.06R    0.00  
Chester           8   12   -1       3.06    79.40     2.26    58.31    10.01   -10.75     0.09     3.27     0.49P    7.91R    1.50  
Aldershot         8   11   +1       0.28    53.47     1.35    64.08    10.13     2.27     0.42     9.49     2.07P    2.54R    0.38  
Lincoln_City      8   10   +0       1.05    61.87     3.36    62.99    10.35     0.66     0.28     8.28     1.52P    3.70R    0.60  
Macclesfield      8   10   -1      -1.40    36.08    -1.62    65.01    10.16     3.44     0.56    11.04     2.73P    1.97R    0.25  
Barrow            8   10   -7       2.34    74.83    -1.05    47.97    10.58   -30.05     0.01     0.51     0.08P   38.06R   14.02  
Altrincham        8    9   -5       1.31    65.68     0.11    51.20     9.75   -21.10     0.01     0.57     0.07P   24.06R    6.38  
Guiseley          8    9   -5       0.24    54.29    -1.81    45.05    10.05   -29.82     0.00     0.20     0.04P   48.44R   20.17  
Bromley           8    8   -2      -0.10    51.31     3.02    52.70    11.04   -14.64     0.04     1.69     0.30P   22.45R    7.01  
Torquay           8    8   -5      -2.49    26.61    -4.17    64.54    10.28     1.55     0.44    10.49     2.49P    2.47R    0.36  
Boreham_Wood      8    7   -2      -0.80    43.88     3.06    52.58    10.87   -12.15     0.05     1.41     0.29P   21.95R    6.79  
Welling           8    5   -5      -3.12    19.97    -0.54    48.90     9.74   -17.63     0.01     0.31     0.04P   31.31R    9.52  
Southport         8    5   -7      -3.25    19.34    -2.82    43.53     9.35   -28.16     0.00     0.06     0.01P   53.68R   23.23  
Halifax           8    4   -6      -7.10     2.71    -6.08    54.47    10.15    -9.26     0.03     1.57     0.35P   15.08R    3.64  
Kidderminster     8    3   -7      -6.20     3.99    -4.31    52.21     9.99   -11.66     0.01     0.83     0.15P   20.40R    5.37