Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Tuesday 8 September 2015 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 30 August 2015, Southampton 3 0 Norwich; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Man_City          4   12  +10       3.55    92.01     5.11    86.73     8.63    57.19    82.34    94.07    97.59    99.00    99.78     0.00     0.00  
Crystal_Palace    4    9   +3       4.31    94.39     4.22    50.62     9.17    -4.45     0.10     0.92     2.89     6.18    16.92     5.18R    0.85  
Leicester         4    8   +3       2.37    80.72     2.80    49.20     9.24    -6.03     0.06     0.75     2.29     4.87    13.65     7.44R    1.27  
Swansea           4    8   +3       2.67    84.88     3.24    54.98     9.43     3.32     0.31     2.70     7.40    14.00    31.49     2.06R    0.24  
Man_Utd           4    7   +1      -0.44    43.15    -1.86    65.54     9.23    18.71     3.17    19.14    37.11    52.93    75.02     0.10R    0.01  
Arsenal           4    7   +0      -0.44    43.17    -2.90    68.05     9.31    21.74     5.44    28.27    47.95    63.48    82.36     0.04R    0.00  
Liverpool         4    7   -1       0.72    60.65    -2.21    60.52     9.51     9.15     1.17     8.32    19.04    31.07    54.45     0.62R    0.08  
West_Ham          4    6   +3       0.83    61.67     3.44    51.12     9.27     0.52     0.10     1.11     3.44     7.11    18.92     4.73R    0.80  
Everton           4    5   +1      -0.31    47.07     1.36    56.69     9.34     8.53     0.40     4.03    10.28    18.90    38.86     1.29R    0.18  
Southampton       4    5   +0      -1.80    25.90    -1.95    55.68     9.37     5.91     0.36     3.32     8.80    16.20    34.86     1.68R    0.23  
Bournemouth       4    4   -1      -0.58    44.61     0.44    39.59     9.64   -20.09     0.01     0.07     0.31     0.74     2.64    35.40R   12.51  
Aston_Villa       4    4   -1      -0.48    45.06     0.42    37.31     8.57   -21.16     0.00     0.02     0.09     0.21     0.91    43.15R   15.03  
Chelsea           4    4   -3      -3.06    12.97    -5.35    69.45     9.19    26.12     6.31    34.75    55.32    69.66    86.22     0.03R    0.00  
Norwich           4    4   -3      -0.74    41.68    -1.94    39.46     9.55   -21.85     0.00     0.08     0.28     0.70     2.50    35.81R   12.79  
West_Brom         4    4   -3       0.11    55.06    -0.29    43.91     9.03   -12.57     0.00     0.12     0.51     1.37     4.90    18.29R    4.45  
Tottenham         4    3   -1      -2.54    17.33    -1.11    52.87     9.53     3.46     0.19     2.02     5.48    10.50    25.09     3.64R    0.57  
Watford           4    3   -2      -0.57    42.47     1.22    40.13     9.59   -17.21     0.01     0.09     0.35     0.87     3.03    33.07R   11.14  
Stoke             4    2   -2      -3.31    10.82    -1.82    44.87     9.07    -7.19     0.02     0.21     0.72     1.75     6.29    14.93R    3.24  
Newcastle         4    2   -3      -1.43    31.36     0.11    38.96     8.97   -18.26     0.00     0.03     0.12     0.39     1.66    36.54R   12.31  
Sunderland        4    2   -4      -2.71    16.15    -2.91    34.64     8.54   -25.84     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.08     0.45    56.01R   24.30  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 29 August 2015, Brentford 1 3 Reading; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Brighton         5   13   +4       5.87    97.41     3.52    70.21    10.41     6.61     5.16    11.58    40.34    17.59P    1.03R    0.11  
Hull             5   10   +4       1.26    65.27     1.27    78.08    11.24    21.36    20.51    34.96    69.29    45.39P    0.28R    0.04  
Ipswich          5   10   +3       2.40    77.89     1.91    73.44    11.24    13.98    10.43    20.77    53.58    28.93P    0.85R    0.08  
QPR              5   10   +2       1.64    69.65    -0.38    74.56    12.12    14.71    14.32    25.24    56.72    33.51P    1.01R    0.11  
Cardiff          5    9   +3       2.15    74.95     3.00    67.31    10.87     6.57     3.63     8.34    31.71    13.52P    2.51R    0.32  
Middlesbrough    5    8   +4      -0.45    44.21     1.71    76.25    10.71    21.64    15.23    28.51    64.48    39.60P    0.26R    0.02  
Birmingham       4    8   +3       3.03    86.82     3.74    62.96    11.12    -0.64     1.76     4.30    19.86     7.35P    6.37R    1.05  
Charlton         5    8   +2       2.35    79.12     3.62    62.08    10.60    -0.08     1.08     3.03    16.44     5.69P    6.50R    1.01  
Burnley          5    8   +0       0.30    54.48    -1.25    71.00    11.46    10.35     7.56    15.36    44.84    23.40P    1.51R    0.20  
Leeds_United     5    7   +1       0.88    62.51     2.01    58.57    10.70    -5.12     0.59     1.59    10.11     3.35P   11.93R    2.28  
MK_Dons          5    7   +1      -0.56    43.30    -0.05    60.23    11.70    -3.45     1.33     3.37    15.55     6.08P   10.96R    2.24  
Wolverhampton    5    7   -1      -0.07    49.92    -1.34    69.57    11.01     8.56     5.38    11.97    39.55    19.02P    1.76R    0.21  
Reading          5    6   +1      -0.54    43.69     1.41    58.11    10.67    -4.40     0.59     1.55     9.77     3.25P   12.39R    2.48  
Fulham           5    5   +0      -1.52    32.48     0.54    56.09    11.19    -8.69     0.47     1.29     7.86     2.63P   18.44R    4.26  
Sheff_Wed        5    5   -1      -1.20    36.20    -0.21    56.11    10.45    -7.12     0.27     0.82     6.49     2.06P   16.16R    3.43  
Nott'm_Forest    5    5   -1      -2.34    23.37    -1.79    59.18    10.99    -4.08     0.73     2.13    12.04     4.30P   11.15R    2.07  
Preston          5    5   -2      -0.88    40.62    -0.79    55.72    11.06    -8.76     0.36     1.07     7.17     2.40P   18.82R    4.08  
Brentford        4    4   -1      -1.61    29.84    -1.19    64.76    11.63     3.65     2.90     6.61    25.74    11.12P    5.48R    0.96  
Derby            5    4   -1      -4.09     9.46    -2.86    69.90    11.22    13.78     6.18    13.30    41.99    21.67P    1.66R    0.21  
Bristol_City     5    4   -4      -2.02    27.09    -2.75    55.58    11.92   -11.65     0.63     1.59     8.50     3.09P   21.68R    6.15  
Blackburn        5    3   -2      -4.08     8.49    -2.38    59.17    10.97    -1.69     0.72     2.03    12.04     4.45P   11.03R    2.30  
Huddersfield     5    3   -3      -2.35    21.86    -0.77    49.75    10.52   -16.89     0.05     0.18     2.13     0.54P   36.36R   11.32  
Bolton           5    3   -4      -2.56    19.19    -2.22    52.87    10.42   -12.38     0.13     0.39     3.67     1.01P   25.04R    6.56  
Rotherham        5    1   -8      -3.89     8.36    -4.78    39.01    10.00   -36.28     0.01     0.01     0.14     0.03P   76.81R   48.51  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 6 September 2015, Burton_Albion 1 2 Coventry; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Gillingham        6   14   +8       5.61    94.92     7.76    75.55    11.08    18.09    10.95    21.85    57.74    30.00P    0.72R    0.03  
Coventry          6   13   +7       3.93    87.74     5.68    72.46    11.00    13.81     6.80    14.61    47.15    21.93P    1.49R    0.09  
Walsall           6   13   +7       3.64    85.69     5.32    72.53    10.51    14.22     5.96    13.63    47.31    21.77P    1.03R    0.05  
Sheff_Utd         5   12   +4       4.25    90.97     2.69    81.05    10.94    23.09    22.62    38.74    75.88    49.22P    0.20R    0.00  
Burton_Albion     6   12   +2       4.20    88.45     2.59    62.18    11.17    -4.72     1.11     2.82    15.88     5.31P   10.82R    1.35  
Rochdale          6   11   +6       2.03    72.42     4.91    71.91    10.99    15.12     6.20    13.66    45.29    21.06P    1.59R    0.09  
Swindon           6   11   +4       0.42    54.34     0.40    78.29    11.07    23.18    16.47    30.36    67.87    41.28P    0.43R    0.02  
Chesterfield      6   10   +2       1.51    67.21     1.56    73.02    10.90    14.29     6.96    15.30    48.89    23.99P    1.34R    0.12  
Wigan             6   10   +1      -0.35    45.30    -2.16    78.68    11.12    21.26    16.82    31.22    68.92    43.80P    0.42R    0.02  
Fleetwood_Town    6    8   +2      -0.34    47.01     1.77    59.26    10.60    -3.05     0.47     1.40    10.11     3.14P   14.34R    1.85  
Bradford          6    8   -2       0.23    54.12    -1.36    62.15    10.51    -2.54     0.81     2.14    14.37     4.93P    9.29R    0.96  
Bury              6    7   +0      -0.25    48.41     1.58    54.25    11.52   -12.55     0.22     0.73     5.80     1.65P   30.68R    7.05  
Oldham            6    7   +0      -0.98    39.58     0.25    57.22    10.48    -6.35     0.24     0.79     7.03     2.10P   19.40R    2.84  
Barnsley          6    7   -4      -1.27    36.36    -4.02    63.39    10.81    -1.70     1.13     3.06    17.72     6.40P    8.34R    1.00  
Port_Vale         5    6   +2      -0.53    43.63     2.55    61.10    10.91     0.41     0.76     2.10    13.73     4.53P   11.65R    1.49  
Southend          6    6   -2      -0.55    45.34     0.29    53.02    10.80   -12.55     0.13     0.38     3.64     1.06P   33.24R    7.42  
Doncaster         6    6   -2      -2.27    25.02    -2.13    61.13    10.47    -1.08     0.52     1.72    12.67     4.35P   10.66R    1.26  
Shrewsbury        6    5   -2      -2.99    19.54    -1.76    58.01    11.12    -4.11     0.49     1.27     8.96     3.08P   18.72R    3.33  
Scunthorpe        6    5   -3      -2.93    19.92    -2.51    52.83    10.71   -14.28     0.10     0.31     3.41     0.98P   33.60R    7.23  
Peterborough      6    4   -5      -4.30    10.12    -5.13    59.70    10.78    -3.72     0.41     1.45    10.97     3.64P   14.27R    2.04  
Millwall          5    4   -6      -2.76    19.69    -5.88    59.41    11.55    -7.02     0.67     1.93    11.72     4.35P   17.05R    3.07  
Blackpool         6    4   -8      -3.13    18.10    -6.32    51.60    11.16   -18.94     0.12     0.38     3.09     0.99P   38.92R   10.47  
Colchester        5    3   -5      -3.30    13.72    -4.09    48.54    10.78   -22.40     0.04     0.14     1.59     0.40P   49.89R   15.44  
Crewe             6    2   -6      -3.78    11.29    -1.97    42.57    10.02   -28.47     0.00     0.01     0.25     0.04P   71.90R   32.77  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 6 September 2015, Bristol_Rovers 0 1 Oxford_Utd; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Leyton_Orient         6   15   +6       2.78    78.45    -0.37    93.36    11.16    43.68    63.60    87.46    97.19    90.88P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe               6   14   +7       3.94    88.59     4.26    78.88    10.65    21.97    10.83    44.16    77.76    53.56P    0.05R    0.02  
Plymouth              6   12   +6       2.25    74.21     3.71    74.15    10.56    16.89     4.87    27.64    63.15    37.45P    0.17R    0.05  
Oxford_Utd            6   12   +5       3.32    83.32     4.27    71.88    10.69    12.59     3.44    21.11    54.55    29.46P    0.44R    0.11  
Portsmouth            6   12   +5       3.38    83.86     4.35    71.51    10.77    11.97     3.29    20.02    53.07    27.90P    0.48R    0.12  
Morecambe             6   10   +3       1.80    70.42     3.05    66.04    10.89     4.56     1.19     9.33    33.70    14.77P    1.95R    0.73  
Exeter                6   10   +2       1.91    71.29     2.34    66.19    11.03     3.57     1.20     9.95    34.18    15.17P    2.10R    0.79  
Mansfield             6    9   +2       1.86    71.76     3.49    54.55    10.13   -11.44     0.05     0.87     6.29     1.85P   13.15R    5.95  
Hartlepool            6    9   +0       2.03    73.51     1.89    54.22    10.36   -14.64     0.04     0.86     6.18     1.74P   14.67R    6.71  
Bristol_Rovers        6    9   +0       1.60    69.32     1.12    60.62    10.84    -3.46     0.37     3.81    17.63     6.98P    5.26R    2.10  
Carlisle              6    9   -1       0.64    57.22    -1.12    57.06    10.98   -13.92     0.17     2.12    11.30     3.84P   10.61R    4.87  
Cambridge_Utd         6    8   -1       0.26    54.39    -0.13    55.48    10.72   -13.45     0.12     1.45     8.58     2.83P   12.56R    5.64  
AFC_Wimbledon         6    8   -1       0.46    56.73     0.03    57.60    10.59    -9.23     0.17     1.95    11.34     3.79P    8.81R    3.85  
Stevenage             6    8   -2      -0.51    45.01    -2.31    67.86    10.76     5.61     1.61    12.07    39.69    18.96P    1.19R    0.39  
Accrington_Stanley    6    7   +0      -0.23    48.48     1.59    55.73    10.62    -9.63     0.09     1.28     8.63     2.73P   12.25R    5.53  
Northampton           6    7   -1      -1.45    34.37    -1.35    60.06    10.77    -4.16     0.34     3.37    16.67     6.19P    5.80R    2.31  
York                  6    7   -1      -1.21    36.59    -1.04    58.71    10.36    -4.86     0.15     2.11    12.91     4.40P    6.61R    2.59  
Crawley_Town          5    6   +2      -2.12    24.64     0.11    73.23    11.61    18.55     5.29    26.83    59.16    37.14P    0.53R    0.15  
Luton                 6    5   -1      -3.62    14.63    -1.60    61.60    10.69     1.70     0.38     4.52    20.44     8.45P    4.29R    1.75  
Dag_&_Red             6    5   -5      -1.69    32.41    -2.52    57.01    10.68    -9.59     0.12     1.69    10.44     3.53P   10.22R    4.57  
Barnet                6    4   -5      -2.19    26.33    -1.57    47.26    10.77   -22.87     0.02     0.26     2.11     0.63P   36.79R   22.09  
Notts_County          5    4   -5      -3.66    12.35    -6.21    67.68    11.91     6.25     2.39    14.17    40.17    21.76P    2.08R    0.83  
Yeovil                6    3   -6      -5.11     6.06    -5.83    57.86    11.45    -6.14     0.28     2.87    13.58     5.64P   10.20R    4.78  
Newport_County        6    1   -9      -5.43     3.31    -6.16    46.26    10.32   -23.93     0.00     0.10     1.28     0.34P   39.80R   24.07  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 5 September 2015, Aldershot 3 2 Halifax; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Forest_Green      8   24  +13       8.43    99.27     5.70    88.99    10.11    32.78    38.13    86.54    50.29P    0.00     0.00  
Eastleigh         8   17   +7       3.07    77.80     2.42    76.83    10.39    19.02     6.97    47.66    15.82P    0.12R    0.01  
Woking            8   16   +8       2.52    74.23     4.07    77.21    10.30    21.85     7.22    49.64    16.99P    0.08R    0.01  
Wrexham           8   16   +7       3.41    80.68     4.61    75.22    10.06    17.69     4.58    41.56    12.61P    0.15R    0.02  
Gateshead         8   16   +1       3.65    81.96    -1.06    69.62    10.13     2.94     1.53    21.29     4.99P    0.63R    0.07  
Cheltenham        8   15   +7      -0.26    46.12     0.42    83.22    10.42    31.57    18.96    71.69    35.56P    0.03R    0.00  
Dover_Athletic    8   13   +2       0.25    52.40    -0.63    63.63    10.10    -0.49     0.44     9.22     2.03P    2.68R    0.36  
Braintree_Town    8   13   +0       1.54    65.52    -0.82    64.00     9.82    -1.28     0.33     8.85     1.87P    2.25R    0.29  
Grimsby           8   12   +5      -3.03    21.23    -1.25    77.73    10.04    25.76     7.56    52.49    21.07P    0.07R    0.01  
Tranmere          8   12   +2      -2.93    22.66    -4.00    80.30    10.52    26.95    12.41    61.66    28.38P    0.06R    0.00  
Chester           8   12   -1       3.14    80.00     2.39    57.98     9.94   -11.30     0.08     3.04     0.48P    8.45R    1.57  
Aldershot         8   11   +1       0.31    53.92     1.42    63.97    10.03     2.13     0.40     9.32     2.01P    2.51R    0.35  
Lincoln_City      8   10   +0       1.00    61.44     3.25    63.20    10.39     1.02     0.35     8.79     1.75P    3.55R    0.60  
Macclesfield      8   10   -1      -1.41    35.99    -1.60    64.85     9.94     3.23     0.41    10.33     2.41P    1.98R    0.26  
Barrow            8   10   -7       2.34    75.09    -1.04    47.87    10.50   -30.23     0.00     0.53     0.06P   38.62R   14.18  
Altrincham        8    9   -5       1.21    64.36    -0.08    51.62     9.73   -20.39     0.01     0.61     0.09P   22.71R    5.97  
Guiseley          8    9   -5       0.26    54.42    -1.77    45.08    10.17   -29.87     0.00     0.24     0.04P   48.36R   20.89  
Bromley           8    8   -2      -0.15    50.72     2.90    52.89    11.05   -14.31     0.05     1.74     0.29P   22.08R    6.75  
Torquay           8    8   -5      -2.44    27.11    -4.12    64.57    10.25     1.51     0.47    10.49     2.35P    2.48R    0.39  
Boreham_Wood      8    7   -2      -0.84    43.66     2.97    52.78    10.94   -11.87     0.06     1.62     0.35P   21.73R    6.50  
Welling           8    5   -5      -3.14    19.47    -0.55    48.72     9.72   -17.87     0.01     0.27     0.07P   32.23R   10.15  
Southport         8    5   -7      -3.24    19.56    -2.84    43.81     9.35   -27.69     0.00     0.05     0.01P   52.78R   22.08  
Halifax           8    4   -6      -7.14     2.69    -6.16    54.50    10.20    -9.16     0.03     1.58     0.35P   15.18R    3.79  
Kidderminster     8    3   -7      -6.17     4.23    -4.24    51.99     9.97   -11.98     0.00     0.78     0.13P   21.28R    5.73