Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Monday 7 September 2015 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 30 August 2015, Southampton 3 0 Norwich; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Man_City          4   12  +10       3.53    91.90     5.07    86.95     8.53    57.62    82.44    94.27    97.75    99.00    99.80     0.00     0.00  
Crystal_Palace    4    9   +3       4.32    94.34     4.24    50.60     9.10    -4.49     0.09     0.83     2.69     5.95    16.52     5.11R    0.74  
Leicester         4    8   +3       2.37    80.87     2.79    49.09     9.25    -6.15     0.06     0.74     2.30     4.97    13.90     7.25R    1.31  
Swansea           4    8   +3       2.70    85.14     3.29    54.99     9.36     3.27     0.33     2.59     7.20    13.83    31.86     2.05R    0.23  
Man_Utd           4    7   +1      -0.44    43.06    -1.86    65.60     9.32    18.72     3.16    19.24    37.37    53.29    75.31     0.11R    0.00  
Arsenal           4    7   +0      -0.42    43.47    -2.89    67.93     9.33    21.60     5.10    27.20    47.43    63.01    82.12     0.05R    0.00  
Liverpool         4    7   -1       0.73    60.93    -2.19    60.31     9.51     8.84     1.13     8.04    18.31    30.50    53.54     0.63R    0.07  
West_Ham          4    6   +3       0.84    62.10     3.46    51.01     9.31     0.41     0.08     1.11     3.29     6.95    18.71     5.16R    0.83  
Everton           4    5   +1      -0.32    46.71     1.34    56.76     9.45     8.63     0.44     4.11    10.62    19.26    39.63     1.36R    0.18  
Southampton       4    5   +0      -1.78    26.18    -1.93    55.55     9.31     5.74     0.27     3.10     8.39    15.65    34.15     1.67R    0.17  
Bournemouth       4    4   -1      -0.59    44.52     0.43    39.46     9.65   -20.24     0.01     0.09     0.30     0.74     2.65    35.58R   12.71  
Aston_Villa       4    4   -1      -0.50    44.94     0.37    37.41     8.61   -20.93     0.00     0.01     0.06     0.18     0.94    42.66R   14.59  
Chelsea           4    4   -3      -3.13    12.39    -5.45    69.88     9.23    26.80     6.69    36.31    57.15    71.30    87.12     0.03R    0.00  
Norwich           4    4   -3      -0.71    42.18    -1.89    39.39     9.60   -22.00     0.01     0.05     0.26     0.71     2.62    36.26R   12.85  
West_Brom         4    4   -3       0.13    55.11    -0.25    43.93     9.04   -12.60     0.00     0.12     0.55     1.39     5.14    18.04R    4.46  
Tottenham         4    3   -1      -2.54    17.51    -1.10    52.80     9.50     3.33     0.18     1.89     5.13    10.14    24.72     3.68R    0.64  
Watford           4    3   -2      -0.56    42.89     1.26    40.11     9.61   -17.31     0.00     0.08     0.33     0.81     2.98    32.85R   11.26  
Stoke             4    2   -2      -3.33    10.89    -1.86    44.98     9.06    -7.05     0.01     0.18     0.72     1.90     6.25    14.87R    3.37  
Newcastle         4    2   -3      -1.45    30.95     0.09    38.96     8.98   -18.29     0.00     0.02     0.11     0.35     1.57    36.33R   12.26  
Sunderland        4    2   -4      -2.73    16.12    -2.93    34.60     8.60   -25.91     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.08     0.46    56.31R   24.30  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 29 August 2015, Brentford 1 3 Reading; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Brighton         5   13   +4       5.85    97.28     3.48    70.47    10.39     6.98     5.26    11.92    41.10    18.23P    0.90R    0.11  
Hull             5   10   +4       1.22    64.65     1.19    78.68    11.36    22.26    21.83    36.78    70.82    47.36P    0.22R    0.02  
Ipswich          5   10   +3       2.37    77.47     1.85    73.55    11.20    14.15    10.69    20.87    53.79    29.10P    0.79R    0.09  
QPR              5   10   +2       1.66    70.02    -0.34    74.18    12.23    14.14    13.55    24.48    55.29    32.47P    1.22R    0.14  
Cardiff          5    9   +3       2.18    75.30     3.05    66.92    10.80     6.04     3.33     7.52    30.28    12.46P    2.57R    0.31  
Middlesbrough    5    8   +4      -0.42    44.70     1.72    76.24    10.69    21.65    14.75    27.88    64.32    39.22P    0.24R    0.03  
Birmingham       4    8   +3       3.03    87.01     3.75    63.13    11.12    -0.39     1.74     4.41    19.92     7.52P    5.93R    0.95  
Charlton         5    8   +2       2.41    79.80     3.72    61.78    10.61    -0.54     1.01     2.82    15.91     5.26P    6.71R    1.12  
Burnley          5    8   +0       0.32    54.79    -1.24    70.99    11.35    10.31     7.25    14.90    44.71    23.07P    1.45R    0.16  
Leeds_United     5    7   +1       0.88    62.62     2.01    58.50    10.78    -5.26     0.61     1.69    10.20     3.30P   12.02R    2.27  
MK_Dons          5    7   +1      -0.53    43.98    -0.01    60.04    11.63    -3.67     1.30     3.22    14.85     5.81P   10.91R    2.10  
Wolverhampton    5    7   -1      -0.09    49.70    -1.37    69.49    11.09     8.51     5.19    11.60    38.99    18.44P    1.86R    0.25  
Reading          5    6   +1      -0.55    43.76     1.37    58.20    10.72    -4.30     0.55     1.54     9.93     3.27P   12.25R    2.29  
Fulham           5    5   +0      -1.54    32.05     0.50    56.19    11.19    -8.54     0.43     1.32     8.01     2.63P   17.93R    4.00  
Sheff_Wed        5    5   -1      -1.17    36.95    -0.16    56.06    10.51    -7.29     0.29     0.86     6.68     2.06P   16.52R    3.48  
Nott'm_Forest    5    5   -1      -2.37    22.55    -1.83    59.21    11.11    -4.01     0.77     2.25    12.22     4.53P   11.53R    2.19  
Preston          5    5   -2      -0.91    40.22    -0.81    56.08    11.13    -8.23     0.39     1.20     7.67     2.58P   17.97R    3.79  
Brentford        4    4   -1      -1.62    29.70    -1.20    64.69    11.63     3.61     2.77     6.49    25.65    10.98P    5.32R    0.97  
Derby            5    4   -1      -4.15     9.02    -2.90    70.31    11.28    14.35     6.74    14.07    43.18    22.68P    1.68R    0.21  
Bristol_City     5    4   -4      -2.02    26.98    -2.71    55.26    12.06   -12.17     0.61     1.51     8.23     2.96P   22.36R    6.37  
Blackburn        5    3   -2      -4.10     8.63    -2.42    59.35    10.91    -1.44     0.74     2.07    12.05     4.39P   10.56R    2.08  
Huddersfield     5    3   -3      -2.34    21.71    -0.74    49.81    10.65   -16.92     0.07     0.20     2.22     0.51P   36.54R   11.21  
Bolton           5    3   -4      -2.57    19.40    -2.24    53.11    10.48   -12.11     0.11     0.42     3.86     1.13P   24.60R    6.16  
Rotherham        5    1   -8      -3.83     8.78    -4.67    38.55    10.01   -37.12     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.03P   77.91R   49.71  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 6 September 2015, Burton_Albion 1 2 Coventry; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Gillingham        6   14   +8       5.59    94.97     7.73    75.74    11.04    18.40    10.91    22.03    58.55    30.32P    0.75R    0.04  
Coventry          6   13   +7       3.94    87.84     5.69    72.36    11.10    13.60     6.69    14.46    46.63    21.56P    1.60R    0.12  
Walsall           6   13   +7       3.61    85.25     5.28    72.87    10.52    14.72     6.42    14.13    48.36    22.56P    0.99R    0.05  
Sheff_Utd         5   12   +4       4.26    91.03     2.69    80.91    10.88    22.86    21.90    37.99    75.50    48.52P    0.17R    0.00  
Burton_Albion     6   12   +2       4.20    88.36     2.59    62.16    11.11    -4.82     1.08     2.92    15.56     5.25P   10.41R    1.34  
Rochdale          6   11   +6       2.07    72.73     4.96    71.87    10.97    15.07     6.19    13.58    44.94    21.17P    1.60R    0.13  
Swindon           6   11   +4       0.38    53.87     0.38    78.37    10.91    23.27    16.46    30.37    68.07    41.41P    0.34R    0.01  
Chesterfield      6   10   +2       1.46    66.75     1.52    73.28    10.94    14.62     7.34    15.77    49.63    24.50P    1.27R    0.10  
Wigan             6   10   +1      -0.37    45.26    -2.19    78.69    11.11    21.23    16.74    30.80    68.56    43.17P    0.39R    0.01  
Fleetwood_Town    6    8   +2      -0.34    47.40     1.79    59.00    10.47    -3.36     0.36     1.18     9.39     2.80P   14.71R    1.93  
Bradford          6    8   -2       0.21    53.85    -1.38    62.36    10.58    -2.21     0.83     2.27    14.91     5.07P    9.10R    1.05  
Bury              6    7   +0      -0.31    47.86     1.45    54.65    11.48   -11.78     0.31     0.78     5.95     1.82P   29.24R    6.33  
Oldham            6    7   +0      -0.92    40.32     0.33    57.00    10.52    -6.71     0.21     0.77     6.70     1.95P   19.87R    3.17  
Barnsley          6    7   -4      -1.30    36.01    -4.05    63.74    10.85    -1.19     1.35     3.48    18.49     7.04P    7.80R    0.88  
Port_Vale         5    6   +2      -0.46    44.80     2.62    60.87    10.96     0.13     0.73     2.01    13.37     4.37P   12.20R    1.66  
Southend          6    6   -2      -0.55    45.37     0.27    52.95    10.80   -12.61     0.12     0.35     3.64     1.06P   33.47R    7.47  
Doncaster         6    6   -2      -2.25    25.26    -2.08    60.90    10.52    -1.41     0.52     1.68    12.25     4.00P   11.10R    1.42  
Shrewsbury        6    5   -2      -2.97    19.65    -1.76    58.18    11.03    -3.95     0.41     1.24     8.91     3.18P   17.81R    3.20  
Scunthorpe        6    5   -3      -2.92    19.81    -2.49    52.77    10.67   -14.39     0.10     0.34     3.40     0.88P   33.75R    6.97  
Peterborough      6    4   -5      -4.30    10.10    -5.12    59.35    10.80    -4.19     0.44     1.38    10.12     3.49P   14.99R    2.26  
Millwall          5    4   -6      -2.77    19.78    -5.88    59.47    11.76    -7.01     0.76     2.01    12.18     4.54P   17.28R    2.99  
Blackpool         6    4   -8      -3.16    17.91    -6.35    51.68    11.17   -18.80     0.10     0.33     3.13     0.89P   38.69R   10.12  
Colchester        5    3   -5      -3.28    13.93    -4.08    48.41    10.76   -22.60     0.04     0.12     1.50     0.40P   50.37R   15.34  
Crewe             6    2   -6      -3.77    11.51    -1.93    42.37    10.12   -28.87     0.00     0.01     0.27     0.04P   72.08R   33.39  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 6 September 2015, Bristol_Rovers 0 1 Oxford_Utd; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Leyton_Orient         6   15   +6       2.80    78.68    -0.30    93.30    11.07    43.57    63.86    87.50    97.22    90.81P    0.00R    0.00  
Wycombe               6   14   +7       3.97    88.71     4.31    78.87    10.62    21.94    10.52    44.05    77.84    53.77P    0.05R    0.01  
Plymouth              6   12   +6       2.25    74.19     3.70    74.20    10.52    16.96     5.00    27.46    63.32    37.10P    0.18R    0.05  
Oxford_Utd            6   12   +5       3.37    83.50     4.33    71.47    10.69    11.95     3.25    19.72    52.99    27.88P    0.48R    0.12  
Portsmouth            6   12   +5       3.42    84.13     4.42    71.32    10.82    11.60     3.16    19.70    52.26    27.56P    0.56R    0.19  
Morecambe             6   10   +3       1.74    69.48     2.96    66.13    10.93     4.65     1.33     9.64    34.42    15.02P    1.99R    0.72  
Exeter                6   10   +2       1.90    71.33     2.33    66.15    11.02     3.65     1.14    10.03    34.06    15.46P    2.01R    0.76  
Mansfield             6    9   +2       1.87    71.86     3.48    54.50    10.10   -11.46     0.06     0.81     6.27     1.71P   13.25R    5.99  
Hartlepool            6    9   +0       2.00    73.23     1.83    54.34    10.28   -14.43     0.06     0.89     6.30     1.82P   14.20R    6.56  
Bristol_Rovers        6    9   +0       1.60    69.17     1.14    60.69    10.86    -3.37     0.37     3.97    18.13     7.14P    5.39R    2.13  
Carlisle              6    9   -1       0.64    57.24    -1.11    57.02    10.94   -13.91     0.15     2.10    11.13     3.80P   10.77R    4.92  
Cambridge_Utd         6    8   -1       0.28    54.93    -0.10    55.59    10.61   -13.27     0.13     1.38     8.43     2.68P   12.31R    5.50  
AFC_Wimbledon         6    8   -1       0.44    56.74     0.04    57.52    10.57    -9.27     0.16     1.82    11.02     3.68P    8.98R    3.84  
Stevenage             6    8   -2      -0.56    44.51    -2.37    68.04    10.96     5.95     1.62    12.78    40.60    19.97P    1.28R    0.44  
Accrington_Stanley    6    7   +0      -0.22    48.77     1.60    55.53    10.51    -9.95     0.09     1.24     8.30     2.56P   12.06R    5.40  
Northampton           6    7   -1      -1.43    34.66    -1.35    59.97    10.87    -4.27     0.35     3.55    16.87     6.46P    6.15R    2.54  
York                  6    7   -1      -1.23    36.38    -1.08    58.88    10.35    -4.56     0.17     2.26    13.11     4.62P    6.41R    2.50  
Crawley_Town          5    6   +2      -2.17    24.34     0.02    73.52    11.67    18.88     5.69    28.17    60.43    38.31P    0.56R    0.21  
Luton                 6    5   -1      -3.67    14.43    -1.63    61.76    10.67     1.95     0.45     4.40    20.62     8.47P    4.32R    1.76  
Dag_&_Red             6    5   -5      -1.66    32.89    -2.48    56.80    10.74    -9.98     0.10     1.66    10.18     3.41P   10.73R    4.84  
Barnet                6    4   -5      -2.20    26.12    -1.63    47.47    10.85   -22.48     0.01     0.29     2.36     0.70P   36.49R   22.03  
Notts_County          5    4   -5      -3.65    12.24    -6.18    67.54    11.77     6.03     2.04    13.65    39.46    21.18P    2.18R    0.87  
Yeovil                6    3   -6      -5.04     6.10    -5.74    57.53    11.50    -6.60     0.29     2.76    13.16     5.48P   10.71R    5.09  
Newport_County        6    1   -9      -5.42     3.41    -6.20    46.56    10.41   -23.57     0.01     0.15     1.50     0.41P   38.94R   23.50  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 5 September 2015, Aldershot 3 2 Halifax; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Forest_Green      8   24  +13       8.39    99.26     5.66    89.07    10.10    32.89    38.61    86.83    50.69P    0.00     0.00  
Eastleigh         8   17   +7       3.04    77.58     2.34    77.04    10.31    19.31     7.00    48.61    16.02P    0.08R    0.01  
Woking            8   16   +8       2.52    74.05     4.06    77.16    10.29    21.69     7.11    49.08    16.70P    0.08R    0.01  
Wrexham           8   16   +7       3.42    80.51     4.60    75.17    10.04    17.63     4.52    41.16    12.24P    0.15R    0.01  
Gateshead         8   16   +1       3.58    81.42    -1.16    69.78    10.10     3.20     1.49    21.95     5.13P    0.59R    0.06  
Cheltenham        8   15   +7      -0.20    47.03     0.49    82.99    10.48    31.21    18.44    70.75    35.06P    0.02R    0.00  
Dover_Athletic    8   13   +2       0.30    52.79    -0.58    63.61     9.95    -0.49     0.35     8.81     1.88P    2.47R    0.31  
Braintree_Town    8   13   +0       1.49    64.96    -0.91    64.22     9.81    -0.95     0.32     9.09     1.86P    2.05R    0.23  
Grimsby           8   12   +5      -3.04    21.18    -1.27    77.86    10.08    25.95     7.79    52.79    21.45P    0.05R    0.00  
Tranmere          8   12   +2      -2.92    22.64    -3.99    80.31    10.50    26.96    12.59    61.81    28.57P    0.04R    0.00  
Chester           8   12   -1       3.09    79.80     2.34    57.91     9.93   -11.36     0.06     2.99     0.48P    8.45R    1.58  
Aldershot         8   11   +1       0.30    53.87     1.41    63.97    10.09     2.19     0.37     9.30     2.00P    2.71R    0.41  
Lincoln_City      8   10   +0       1.00    61.68     3.31    63.08    10.28     0.85     0.30     8.34     1.66P    3.58R    0.56  
Macclesfield      8   10   -1      -1.43    35.74    -1.64    64.91    10.04     3.38     0.45    10.76     2.59P    1.95R    0.28  
Barrow            8   10   -7       2.27    74.16    -1.11    48.14    10.63   -29.81     0.01     0.57     0.09P   37.75R   13.51  
Altrincham        8    9   -5       1.25    64.71    -0.01    51.35     9.65   -20.77     0.01     0.59     0.07P   23.43R    6.06  
Guiseley          8    9   -5       0.32    55.09    -1.68    44.74    10.04   -30.41     0.00     0.13     0.01P   49.56R   21.03  
Bromley           8    8   -2      -0.16    50.59     2.88    53.11    11.11   -14.01     0.07     1.76     0.34P   21.58R    6.61  
Torquay           8    8   -5      -2.49    26.46    -4.16    64.56    10.20     1.58     0.43    10.42     2.37P    2.51R    0.37  
Boreham_Wood      8    7   -2      -0.75    44.50     3.14    52.48    10.96   -12.41     0.03     1.50     0.28P   22.50R    7.20  
Welling           8    5   -5      -3.11    20.02    -0.50    48.80     9.76   -17.82     0.00     0.31     0.04P   31.84R    9.94  
Southport         8    5   -7      -3.22    19.56    -2.77    43.62     9.32   -28.03     0.00     0.05     0.01P   53.20R   22.48  
Halifax           8    4   -6      -7.12     2.70    -6.13    54.46    10.21    -9.28     0.03     1.54     0.31P   15.17R    3.92  
Kidderminster     8    3   -7      -6.21     3.94    -4.33    52.28    10.00   -11.52     0.01     0.86     0.16P   20.23R    5.40