Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Saturday 5 September 2015 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 30 August 2015, Southampton 3 0 Norwich; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Man_City          4   12  +10       3.57    92.16     5.15    86.67     8.59    57.01    81.76    93.85    97.51    98.94    99.78     0.00     0.00  
Crystal_Palace    4    9   +3       4.30    94.13     4.18    50.68     9.14    -4.36     0.09     0.85     2.72     6.00    16.72     5.04R    0.80  
Leicester         4    8   +3       2.37    80.95     2.79    49.22     9.33    -5.95     0.08     0.73     2.36     5.08    13.95     7.36R    1.31  
Swansea           4    8   +3       2.67    84.83     3.25    55.00     9.49     3.36     0.30     2.83     7.49    14.19    31.85     2.03R    0.24  
Man_Utd           4    7   +1      -0.44    43.08    -1.86    65.69     9.36    18.95     3.60    19.81    37.38    52.99    75.10     0.08R    0.00  
Arsenal           4    7   +0      -0.39    43.94    -2.85    67.94     9.39    21.60     5.57    27.43    47.56    62.62    81.80     0.06R    0.01  
Liverpool         4    7   -1       0.68    60.16    -2.27    60.94     9.53     9.81     1.27     9.10    20.27    32.96    56.10     0.48R    0.06  
West_Ham          4    6   +3       0.87    62.35     3.50    51.17     9.31     0.61     0.10     1.12     3.33     7.14    19.02     4.61R    0.85  
Everton           4    5   +1      -0.33    46.70     1.31    56.75     9.39     8.57     0.41     4.01    10.28    18.80    39.04     1.39R    0.19  
Southampton       4    5   +0      -1.78    26.15    -1.92    55.48     9.28     5.62     0.29     2.96     8.02    15.10    33.61     1.67R    0.20  
Bournemouth       4    4   -1      -0.62    43.81     0.40    39.64     9.69   -20.05     0.00     0.10     0.31     0.82     2.75    34.66R   12.43  
Aston_Villa       4    4   -1      -0.48    45.23     0.43    37.36     8.59   -21.08     0.00     0.01     0.07     0.22     0.92    42.94R   14.81  
Chelsea           4    4   -3      -3.12    12.55    -5.43    69.52     9.29    26.32     6.28    34.84    55.41    69.49    86.09     0.04R    0.00  
Norwich           4    4   -3      -0.71    42.25    -1.89    39.29     9.67   -22.23     0.02     0.10     0.34     0.78     2.68    37.05R   13.01  
West_Brom         4    4   -3       0.09    54.65    -0.31    43.90     8.99   -12.61     0.01     0.11     0.45     1.27     4.84    17.89R    4.32  
Tottenham         4    3   -1      -2.51    17.62    -1.08    52.92     9.52     3.50     0.21     1.85     5.27    10.57    24.76     3.52R    0.59  
Watford           4    3   -2      -0.56    42.72     1.25    39.79     9.62   -17.74     0.01     0.10     0.36     0.79     2.75    34.09R   11.82  
Stoke             4    2   -2      -3.29    11.23    -1.80    44.77     9.04    -7.34     0.01     0.16     0.72     1.71     6.01    15.21R    3.48  
Newcastle         4    2   -3      -1.48    30.69     0.04    39.23     8.99   -17.81     0.00     0.03     0.12     0.43     1.79    35.11R   11.28  
Sunderland        4    2   -4      -2.70    16.17    -2.89    34.44     8.57   -26.18     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.09     0.45    56.77R   24.59  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 29 August 2015, Brentford 1 3 Reading; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Brighton         5   13   +4       5.84    97.46     3.47    70.38    10.42     6.82     5.19    11.72    41.27    18.24P    0.96R    0.10  
Hull             5   10   +4       1.25    64.98     1.24    78.20    11.46    21.55    20.96    35.23    69.12    45.63P    0.24R    0.03  
Ipswich          5   10   +3       2.36    77.37     1.84    73.63    11.24    14.24    10.89    21.33    54.09    29.44P    0.75R    0.09  
QPR              5   10   +2       1.61    69.49    -0.40    74.56    12.23    14.74    14.56    25.74    56.67    33.78P    1.08R    0.13  
Cardiff          5    9   +3       2.16    75.16     3.02    66.94    10.82     6.08     3.26     7.76    30.64    12.72P    2.64R    0.35  
Middlesbrough    5    8   +4      -0.45    44.40     1.71    76.25    10.73    21.58    14.71    28.27    64.57    39.44P    0.27R    0.03  
Birmingham       4    8   +3       3.01    86.82     3.73    63.14    11.22    -0.39     1.88     4.50    20.34     7.56P    6.38R    1.18  
Charlton         5    8   +2       2.35    79.06     3.63    62.20    10.57     0.10     1.10     2.95    16.81     5.82P    6.18R    0.97  
Burnley          5    8   +0       0.31    54.50    -1.25    71.08    11.29    10.49     7.48    15.23    44.72    23.45P    1.28R    0.16  
Leeds_United     5    7   +1       0.91    62.88     2.02    58.56    10.62    -5.10     0.54     1.57    10.09     3.20P   11.58R    2.22  
MK_Dons          5    7   +1      -0.52    44.11    -0.01    59.94    11.85    -3.87     1.45     3.44    15.15     6.00P   11.63R    2.45  
Wolverhampton    5    7   -1      -0.07    49.92    -1.32    69.22    11.09     8.11     5.05    11.07    38.85    17.92P    1.95R    0.27  
Reading          5    6   +1      -0.53    43.98     1.39    58.06    10.73    -4.41     0.51     1.52     9.62     3.17P   12.72R    2.54  
Fulham           5    5   +0      -1.52    32.46     0.52    56.19    11.19    -8.50     0.46     1.33     7.98     2.60P   17.96R    4.07  
Sheff_Wed        5    5   -1      -1.19    36.68    -0.18    56.27    10.53    -6.98     0.32     0.96     6.83     2.17P   15.91R    3.46  
Nott'm_Forest    5    5   -1      -2.27    23.63    -1.72    58.86    11.09    -4.59     0.77     2.07    11.69     4.23P   12.02R    2.36  
Preston          5    5   -2      -0.89    40.28    -0.79    55.85    11.02    -8.56     0.36     1.05     7.20     2.30P   18.28R    3.81  
Brentford        4    4   -1      -1.61    29.69    -1.17    64.61    11.49     3.47     2.67     6.33    25.17    10.85P    5.39R    0.95  
Derby            5    4   -1      -4.08     9.41    -2.83    70.14    11.20    14.02     6.33    13.75    42.90    22.32P    1.71R    0.23  
Bristol_City     5    4   -4      -2.02    27.06    -2.75    55.58    11.95   -11.65     0.56     1.52     8.41     3.05P   21.49R    6.34  
Blackburn        5    3   -2      -4.06     8.83    -2.37    58.99    10.96    -1.95     0.73     2.00    11.57     4.29P   11.39R    2.33  
Huddersfield     5    3   -3      -2.35    21.71    -0.77    49.91    10.53   -16.65     0.05     0.17     2.14     0.57P   35.73R   10.69  
Bolton           5    3   -4      -2.60    18.93    -2.27    53.18    10.60   -12.04     0.18     0.49     4.07     1.24P   24.70R    6.13  
Rotherham        5    1   -8      -3.88     8.43    -4.76    38.82     9.81   -36.51     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.01P   77.77R   49.11  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 5 September 2015, Barnsley 1 2 Shrewsbury; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Gillingham        6   14   +8       5.57    94.95     7.71    75.74    10.99    18.37    11.01    22.30    59.02    30.54P    0.76R    0.04  
Walsall           6   13   +7       3.56    85.15     5.23    72.81    10.55    14.58     6.47    14.41    48.33    22.63P    0.98R    0.04  
Sheff_Utd         5   12   +4       4.27    91.22     2.71    80.97    10.99    23.02    22.54    38.59    75.69    49.05P    0.22R    0.01  
Burton_Albion     5   12   +3       5.42    95.51     3.36    64.23    11.42    -2.70     1.80     4.52    21.13     7.77P    8.22R    1.00  
Rochdale          6   11   +6       2.05    72.72     4.95    71.95    11.03    15.16     6.29    13.85    45.73    21.29P    1.76R    0.13  
Swindon           6   11   +4       0.40    54.33     0.37    78.32    11.08    23.25    16.64    30.57    67.88    41.55P    0.41R    0.02  
Coventry          5   10   +6       2.46    78.83     4.91    70.03    11.39    11.54     4.88    11.14    39.33    17.67P    2.81R    0.23  
Chesterfield      6   10   +2       1.50    67.10     1.53    73.21    10.86    14.60     7.27    15.67    49.96    24.37P    1.24R    0.07  
Wigan             6   10   +1      -0.31    45.79    -2.12    78.39    11.17    20.83    16.59    30.52    67.62    42.79P    0.38R    0.03  
Fleetwood_Town    6    8   +2      -0.35    46.94     1.76    59.15    10.47    -3.14     0.45     1.32     9.55     3.12P   14.48R    1.98  
Bradford          6    8   -2       0.25    54.39    -1.32    62.07    10.46    -2.64     0.72     2.11    14.10     4.64P    9.42R    1.12  
Bury              6    7   +0      -0.23    48.81     1.59    54.24    11.33   -12.52     0.25     0.74     5.55     1.69P   30.35R    6.62  
Oldham            6    7   +0      -0.92    40.22     0.34    56.88    10.43    -6.86     0.27     0.73     6.41     1.92P   20.04R    3.16  
Barnsley          6    7   -4      -1.24    36.76    -3.96    63.60    10.91    -1.40     1.25     3.44    18.72     7.06P    8.38R    1.00  
Port_Vale         5    6   +2      -0.48    44.67     2.61    61.05    11.05     0.43     0.85     2.27    13.91     4.70P   12.04R    1.64  
Southend          6    6   -2      -0.60    44.83     0.21    53.19    10.81   -12.32     0.12     0.40     3.90     1.11P   32.90R    7.11  
Doncaster         6    6   -2      -2.27    25.05    -2.12    61.03    10.56    -1.22     0.63     1.81    12.70     4.43P   11.17R    1.36  
Shrewsbury        6    5   -2      -3.08    18.73    -1.89    58.75    11.20    -3.12     0.54     1.55    10.15     3.63P   17.22R    2.93  
Scunthorpe        6    5   -3      -2.90    20.02    -2.46    52.64    10.75   -14.59     0.09     0.33     3.35     0.96P   34.38R    7.63  
Peterborough      6    4   -5      -4.30     9.95    -5.12    59.77    10.72    -3.57     0.52     1.49    10.84     3.67P   14.08R    1.96  
Millwall          5    4   -6      -2.74    19.97    -5.84    59.12    11.52    -7.52     0.68     1.75    11.13     4.04P   17.48R    3.07  
Blackpool         6    4   -8      -3.12    18.30    -6.31    51.63    11.21   -18.92     0.10     0.35     3.18     0.94P   39.07R   10.32  
Colchester        5    3   -5      -3.33    13.60    -4.13    48.48    10.76   -22.58     0.05     0.15     1.52     0.38P   50.01R   15.43  
Crewe             6    2   -6      -3.81    11.00    -2.02    42.46    10.04   -28.70     0.00     0.01     0.30     0.06P   72.20R   33.08  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 5 September 2015, Cambridge_Utd 1 3 Luton; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Leyton_Orient         6   15   +6       2.82    78.85    -0.32    93.63    11.11    44.15    64.95    88.07    97.47    91.43P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe               6   14   +7       3.96    88.72     4.32    78.75    10.74    21.78    10.62    44.20    77.45    53.69P    0.07R    0.02  
Plymouth              6   12   +6       2.28    74.33     3.74    74.10    10.62    16.82     4.88    27.82    63.21    37.30P    0.22R    0.06  
Portsmouth            6   12   +5       3.37    83.70     4.36    71.27    10.79    11.59     3.10    19.73    52.38    27.62P    0.54R    0.19  
Morecambe             6   10   +3       1.81    70.50     3.05    65.71    10.91     3.99     1.11     9.29    33.04    14.46P    2.04R    0.74  
Exeter                6   10   +2       1.90    71.26     2.33    66.32    10.89     3.76     1.20    10.13    34.72    15.46P    1.88R    0.70  
Oxford_Utd            5    9   +4       1.78    70.97     3.41    69.62    11.01    10.66     2.48    16.68    46.57    24.07P    0.95R    0.31  
Mansfield             6    9   +2       1.82    71.15     3.46    54.60    10.09   -11.37     0.07     0.92     6.29     1.90P   13.14R    5.82  
Bristol_Rovers        5    9   +1       2.78    82.12     1.92    63.26    11.11    -0.76     0.69     6.63    25.48    10.83P    3.58R    1.37  
Hartlepool            6    9   +0       1.99    73.19     1.83    54.38    10.26   -14.49     0.05     0.86     6.37     1.79P   14.35R    6.25  
Carlisle              6    9   -1       0.62    57.09    -1.14    57.10    10.98   -13.89     0.24     2.22    11.47     3.99P   10.71R    4.77  
Cambridge_Utd         6    8   -1       0.28    54.70    -0.10    55.55    10.58   -13.39     0.10     1.39     8.45     2.70P   12.50R    5.58  
AFC_Wimbledon         6    8   -1       0.42    56.33    -0.01    57.78    10.67    -8.99     0.16     2.07    11.86     4.09P    8.78R    3.86  
Stevenage             6    8   -2      -0.54    44.56    -2.34    67.95    10.90     5.79     1.57    13.03    40.35    20.07P    1.28R    0.42  
Accrington_Stanley    6    7   +0      -0.24    48.66     1.59    55.57    10.62    -9.99     0.11     1.38     8.43     2.78P   12.63R    5.80  
Northampton           6    7   -1      -1.40    34.97    -1.29    59.84    10.80    -4.47     0.34     3.28    16.28     6.15P    6.32R    2.57  
York                  6    7   -1      -1.20    36.67    -1.03    58.75    10.29    -4.76     0.17     2.25    12.95     4.60P    6.41R    2.58  
Crawley_Town          5    6   +2      -2.17    24.31     0.04    73.19    11.56    18.46     5.10    26.97    59.45    37.39P    0.53R    0.17  
Luton                 6    5   -1      -3.60    15.05    -1.58    61.60    10.80     1.66     0.43     4.62    20.83     8.68P    4.60R    1.90  
Dag_&_Red             6    5   -5      -1.66    32.64    -2.46    56.85    10.72    -9.92     0.12     1.79    10.27     3.39P   10.69R    4.80  
Barnet                6    4   -5      -2.16    26.35    -1.54    47.22    10.86   -22.91     0.01     0.22     2.24     0.58P   37.74R   23.04  
Notts_County          5    4   -5      -3.62    12.40    -6.17    67.28    11.78     5.71     2.22    13.51    38.91    20.96P    2.18R    0.86  
Yeovil                6    3   -6      -5.11     6.00    -5.85    57.85    11.51    -6.14     0.27     2.81    13.95     5.68P   10.37R    4.92  
Newport_County        6    1   -9      -5.45     3.24    -6.23    46.69    10.38   -23.28     0.00     0.13     1.56     0.39P   38.49R   23.27  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 5 September 2015, Aldershot 3 2 Halifax; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Forest_Green      8   24  +13       8.39    99.24     5.64    89.19    10.13    33.07    38.71    87.04    50.98P    0.00R    0.00  
Eastleigh         8   17   +7       2.99    77.14     2.32    77.11    10.40    19.44     7.39    48.75    16.16P    0.09R    0.00  
Woking            8   16   +8       2.52    74.00     4.05    77.22    10.26    21.84     7.17    49.44    16.75P    0.10R    0.01  
Wrexham           8   16   +7       3.42    80.81     4.61    75.18    10.03    17.67     4.48    40.98    12.58P    0.13R    0.02  
Gateshead         8   16   +1       3.67    81.85    -1.03    69.52    10.11     2.83     1.42    21.01     4.79P    0.61R    0.07  
Cheltenham        8   15   +7      -0.19    47.02     0.51    82.92    10.59    31.15    18.43    70.61    34.83P    0.02R    0.00  
Dover_Athletic    8   13   +2       0.26    52.28    -0.64    63.63    10.07    -0.47     0.36     9.18     1.96P    2.46R    0.33  
Braintree_Town    8   13   +0       1.53    65.41    -0.82    64.06     9.84    -1.24     0.38     9.05     1.96P    2.09R    0.29  
Grimsby           8   12   +5      -3.03    21.42    -1.27    77.66    10.04    25.62     7.41    52.21    20.67P    0.05R    0.00  
Tranmere          8   12   +2      -2.96    22.12    -4.05    80.51    10.39    27.26    12.52    62.51    29.23P    0.03R    0.00  
Chester           8   12   -1       3.10    80.05     2.32    58.03     9.96   -11.20     0.08     2.95     0.40P    8.37R    1.60  
Aldershot         8   11   +1       0.28    53.78     1.35    64.03    10.02     2.27     0.35     9.29     1.90P    2.42R    0.36  
Lincoln_City      8   10   +0       1.02    61.41     3.28    63.06    10.32     0.79     0.30     8.49     1.65P    3.70R    0.60  
Macclesfield      8   10   -1      -1.39    36.40    -1.56    64.83    10.03     3.28     0.44    10.57     2.44P    2.07R    0.30  
Barrow            8   10   -7       2.38    75.26    -0.93    47.72    10.59   -30.44     0.01     0.46     0.08P   39.12R   14.53  
Altrincham        8    9   -5       1.28    65.13     0.03    51.39     9.71   -20.79     0.01     0.57     0.07P   23.42R    6.32  
Guiseley          8    9   -5       0.25    54.27    -1.74    44.87     9.96   -30.28     0.00     0.17     0.02P   49.60R   20.59  
Bromley           8    8   -2      -0.21    49.96     2.87    53.03    11.17   -14.18     0.03     1.94     0.35P   21.77R    6.85  
Torquay           8    8   -5      -2.46    26.91    -4.11    64.41    10.21     1.37     0.43    10.10     2.31P    2.54R    0.43  
Boreham_Wood      8    7   -2      -0.87    42.96     2.91    52.94    10.93   -11.63     0.03     1.71     0.32P   21.37R    6.43  
Welling           8    5   -5      -3.08    20.18    -0.46    48.83     9.80   -17.75     0.00     0.34     0.05P   31.73R    9.92  
Southport         8    5   -7      -3.26    19.24    -2.87    43.81     9.35   -27.71     0.00     0.06     0.01P   52.46R   21.89  
Halifax           8    4   -6      -7.13     2.67    -6.16    54.62    10.27    -8.99     0.03     1.72     0.32P   14.86R    3.76  
Kidderminster     8    3   -7      -6.15     4.08    -4.26    52.06    10.03   -11.92     0.01     0.85     0.17P   21.00R    5.71